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1. INTRODUCTION

The segment of cargo transportation services (without pipeline transport) includes the activities of specialized transport organizations and entrepreneurs ( individuals) employed. Rosstat includes here commercial freight transportation carried out by road, rail, inland waterway, sea and air transport.

Road freight transportation is an integral link in the chain connecting the manufacturer of goods and the end consumer. Unlike air or sea transport, road delivery does not depend on the season, and compared to rail transport, truck transport has a high degree of mobility and can deliver cargo to almost any place. In addition, this type of cargo transportation is the most cost-effective for the shipper.

2. MARKET ANALYSIS

The main macroeconomic indicator is traditionally the country's GDP, which reflects in aggregate all the processes taking place in the national economy. Starting from the 3rd quarter of 2011, Russia's GDP shows a stable downward trend (Fig. 1). At the same time, if before 2014 there was only a reduction in growth rates, then in the second half of 2014 and further, GDP began to decline.

Figure 1. Quarterly dynamics of Russia's GDP, 2008-2015, billion rubles and % to the previous period (according to Rosstat)

Several obvious factors became the prerequisites for such a decline: sanctions from the EU and the USA, depreciation of the national currency, falling oil prices and, as a result, a decrease in the welfare and solvency of most of the country's population. There was also a significant rise in the cost of imported products - both food and non-food items. According to Rosstat, in 2014 alone, prices for goods and services increased by an average of 11.4% compared to 2013. Prices foodstuffs increased by 15.4%, non-food - by 8.1%.

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Against the backdrop of a slowdown in economic growth in the country, the volume of cargo transportation by all modes of transport, except for air, is also declining. According to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the volume of cargo transportation in the country in 2014 amounted to 6,776.5 million tons; the decrease by 2013 was 3.5%. The volume of commercial cargo transportation alone in 2014 amounted to 2,978.6 million tons, which is 3.3% lower than in 2013.

The industry has a high share of outsourcing, which, according to experts, is related to the peculiarities of the development of the transport market in the country:

in the total cargo turnover is dominated by rail transportation carried out by the monopolist of the industry - Russian Railways

sea, inland water and air cargo transportation is carried out by specialized transport companies

The exception is the trucking industry. Many industrial and trading companies have their own road transport, which leads to a high share of cargo transportation by non-transport organizations. As of 2014, more than 70% of cargo transportation and about 51% of cargo turnover was carried out by commercial organizations' own transport.

Figure 2. Dynamics of commercial transportation of goods and cargo turnover of transport of all sectors of the Russian economy in 2008-2015, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research), %

In 2014, the volume of cargo transportation by all modes of transport, except for air, decreased. This segment grew by 3%. The share of rail transport increased in the structure of cargo transportation. At the same time, the share of road transport is about 55%. The structure of freight turnover is dominated by railway transport, which accounts for 90.9%, while the share of automobiles is only 4.8%.

Figure 3. Dynamics of commercial transportation of goods and cargo turnover by mode of transport of all sectors of the economy, 2013-2014, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Figure 4. Dynamics of commercial transportation of goods and cargo turnover by mode of transport of all sectors of the economy, 2014-2015, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Figure 5. Structure of commercial transportation of goods by mode of transport of the Russian Federation, 2014, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Figure 6. Structure of commercial freight turnover by mode of transport in the Russian Federation, 2014, % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

The cargo transportation segment is an indicator of consumer activity in the country. Since the first half of 2015, the volume of cargo transportation has been steadily declining, which is associated with a decline in the solvency of the population and a subsidence of the consumer market.

According to experts, the dynamics of the market in the near future will be determined to a large extent external factors: declining commodity prices and rising consumer prices, financial market volatility, and geopolitical risks.

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Figure 7. Main risk factors transport services(according to RBC Market Research)

Many companies compensate for the decline in volumes by raising tariffs. However, the increase in the cost of transportation in most cases does not compensate for the increase in costs.

Figure 7. Dynamics of the Russian market of transport services, 2008-2015, billion rubles and % (according to RBC Market Research)

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Figure 8. Structure of the Russian transport and logistics market by type of service (according to RBC Market Research)

The main trends in the development of the market of transport and forwarding services, experts include: continued decline in commercial traffic and freight turnover, falling cost and physical indicators international transport, increased competition.

Figure 9. Risk factors, main trends and anti-crisis measures in the trucking market (according to RBC Market Research)

According to Rosstat, in 2015, the fleet of road transport of commercial cargo carriers amounted to more than 6 million units. According to the analytical agency "AUTOSTAT", the fleet of vehicles with a carrying capacity of more than 3.5 tons was about 3.73 million units. Active renewal of the fleet took place in 2011-2014.

According to market participants, the profitability of commercial cargo transportation by car decreased from 14-17% to 8-10%, forwarding companies– from 6-7% to 1.5-4%.

Figure 10. The structure of the Russian market of road freight transportation by type of cargo (in monetary terms), % (according to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

The largest growth in volumes in recent years has been in the groupage cargo segment. Market participants estimate the volume of the segment in the range of 60-90 billion rubles. According to experts' forecasts, by 2020 the volume may reach 80-100 billion rubles. depending on the implementation of the pessimistic or optimistic scenario.

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Figure 11. Dynamics of export and import cargo traffic in Russia, 2008-2015, % (according to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, RBC Market Research)

Among the factors of influence that will affect the development of the road freight transportation industry in the near future are the following:

reorientation of capital from the markets of developing countries to the US markets (production of a new technological cycle)

Formation of global trading blocs, decline in the WTO

Slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and production, reorientation of production to less material-intensive and high-tech industries, which will lead to a decrease in the flow of imports into the country

Weak growth and consumption in commodity-dependent countries

According to RBC Market Research, the decline in the road freight market will stop in the coming years. So, for example, at the end of 2016, a fall of no more than 2% is expected. And in 2017, a positive dynamics of demand is expected. However, in the period up to 2018, the volume of road freight transport will not reach the level of 2014.

Figure 12. Forecast of the dynamics of commercial freight turnover of transport in all sectors of the economy, 2012-2018, billion t-km, % (according to RBC Market Research)

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For the transport industry, 2015 turned out to be a difficult year - sanctions, tax increases, falling volumes foreign trade and consumer demand led to significant changes in the market - in new economic conditions companies had to choose not only new routes, but also alternative views transport. Today, most experts note that a serious crisis has already begun in the industry, and this is confirmed by statistics.

According to Rosstat, over the past four years, cargo turnover has remained virtually unchanged, despite the positive dynamics of foreign trade. In January-December 2015, it even grew by 0.5% and amounted to 5089.6 billion ton-kilometers. However, behind these stable data lies a very unpleasant circumstance: during the same period, there was an annual decrease in the volume of transported goods. If in 2012 8.5 million tons were transported, then in 2015 it was less than 7.5 million tons. At the same time, the decline compared to last year was more than 5%.

Today, road freight carriers, which account for the bulk of the loading, are losing market share, while the sea and rail segments are increasing. This is due to the fact that in physical terms, both imports and exports of most consumer goods have significantly decreased, namely, they were transported by road. Imports of foodstuffs, machinery, and household chemicals have decreased several times. At the same time, due to the low exchange rate of the ruble, Russia has increased its export supplies of many raw materials - oil, gas, grain, metals, which are shipped abroad by sea and other modes of transport. Sanctions and the food embargo have also played their part: while trade with Europe has declined, the proportion of Asia-Pacific countries that are more logistically dependent on other delivery methods has increased.

Ultimately, the volume of road transport fell by 7% to 5 billion tons, while at the same time it increased by 18% to 18.3 million tons in maritime transport. At the same time, the volume of loading on railway, inland waterway, air and pipeline transport remained unchanged.

The volume of road transport fell by 12% already in January last year, when Russia's foreign trade turnover collapsed by 34%. The devaluation of the ruble partly helped Russian road carriers - by the end of the year, domestic exporters increased the volume of deliveries of certain products several times, but they failed to correct the situation in the industry - the demand for their services decreased, and a decrease in the volume of transported goods was observed monthly.

Trucking companies have also faced other challenges: transportation costs, fuel and lease payments have risen, and high interest rates on loans continue to stifle business. The increased tariffs for CASCO and OSAGO did not add optimism either.

However, economic difficulties pale in comparison with the “care and support” that our state provided to carriers.

At the beginning of 2015, the problem with TIR Carnets was not resolved - Customs limited its use on the territory of Russia, as a result of which almost the entire transit flow was concentrated in one narrow corridor on the territory of the North-Western Federal District. As a result, transit through Russia became even less attractive than before, and the decline in trade with EU countries ultimately hit companies in this region the hardest. According to the results of January-October 2015, the volume of road cargo transportation from Europe to Russia fell by 34%.

Also, during the past year, the Order of the Ministry of Transport of August 21, 2013 No. 273 “On Approval of the Procedure for Equipping Vehicles with Tachographs” was actively implemented. These devices not only had to be installed on all vehicles at their own expense, but also regularly serviced.

By the end of the year, the state decided to finally finish off the industry and introduced a fee for the passage of heavy trucks on federal roads - the so-called Platon system. The fare was set at 1.53 rubles per 1 km. For most carriers, this has resulted in a multiple increase in costs - for example, Danon notes that its transportation costs have doubled. Many small businesses are now completely forced to leave the market - payments exceed their monthly earnings.

Although analysts predict that the introduction of Platon will ultimately cause consumer prices to rise, hauliers cannot shift the increased costs entirely to their customers - due to falling demand, companies are simply unable to increase tariffs and are forced to operate at a loss. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, tariffs for road freight transportation showed the most insignificant growth compared to other modes of transport - they grew by only 6% over the year, while the overall growth in tariffs was 11.5%.

Despite the fact that road transport is much more convenient in terms of logistics and delivery times, economic forces and administrative barriers led to the fact that by the end of the year the freight traffic began to shift more and more to the railway. After the introduction of the Plato system in November, the volume of rail traffic in December increased by 1%, while during the rest of the months it did not exceed last year's figures.

However, not everyone is ready to switch to rail transport today. For owners of small and medium-sized cargo transportation by railway still remain disadvantageous: the door-to-door delivery principle does not work, it is more difficult to plan deliveries, it is necessary to incur additional costs associated with loading and unloading goods. Market participants are also stopped by sharply increased tariffs - at the beginning of 2015, they increased by 10% for all transportation by Russian Railways, and in addition to this federal Service on tariffs set the maximum allowable deviation from it. As a result, RZhD introduced a 13.4% tariff surcharge on the transportation of a number of exported goods, including key commodities such as oil and oil products, grains and metal products. After such reforms, the demand for rail transportation has decreased - this is especially evident in the first half of the year. Moreover, individual enterprises, whose activities are closely related to transportation, even preferred to reduce their output, especially against the backdrop of a decrease in demand for it from China. So, despite the growth in physical volumes of exports, the volume of rail transportation of oil and oil products (-2%), construction cargo (-7.3%), cement (-20%), ferrous scrap (-11%) fell.

On average, according to Rosstat, tariffs increased by 12.9%. At the same time, the profit of Russian Railways in the first half of the year increased eight times - to 18.26 billion rubles. In 2016, it is planned to increase tariffs by another 9%, and ultimately this will also affect consumers.

The situation is slightly better in maritime transport, in 2015 the volume of maritime cargo transportation amounted to 118.1 million tons, an increase of 17% compared to the previous year. The increase is dictated mainly by foreign trade reasons - the physical volumes of exports of goods supplied to Asian countries have grown, which has been especially pronounced since the fall of 2015. In December, the volume of traffic increased by 62% compared to the same month last year.

Along with the growth of maritime traffic, the cargo turnover of ports also increased - in January-December it amounted to 676.7 million tons, which is 5.7% higher than the same indicator last year. At the same time, it was export cargoes that showed the greatest growth - 539.1 million tons (+7.7%). Transshipments of coal (+6%), grain (+15.1%), ferrous metals (+12.2%), timber (+10.7%) increased.

At the same time, the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin (+10.2%), as well as the Far East (+5.2%) showed the best dynamics. It was on them that the key export flows of domestic raw materials abroad were concentrated.

Due to high transport costs for road and rail transport, more and more companies prefer new ways of transporting goods. Cargo transportation by ferries almost doubled, and the cargo turnover of cabotage transportation increased by 15.6% - up to 56.1 million tons. Despite projects for the development of port and railway infrastructure, the creation of access roads and terminal and logistics centers, the use of road transport and the subsequent reloading of goods on ships is still a priority. Delivery of goods to seaports road transport increased by 12.3% to 54.2 million tons.

River transport has not yet become a popular alternative for carriers, the rivers in Russia transport mainly bulk cargo and minerals, and companies that are within transport accessibility from the waterway carry out transportation. However, there have been some shifts here too - the volume of shipments from ports via inland waterways increased 2.5 times to 346 thousand tons, while dry cargo - almost five times. The devaluation of the ruble made the purchase of imported goods significantly more expensive, and the savings forced traders to choose a cheaper method of transportation over long distances.

The volume of air cargo transportation in Russia is small - according to Rosstat, only 1.1 million tons of cargo were transported in 2015. By air transport, Russia mainly receives goods shipped in international postal items: appliances, clothing, printed matter, food and other consumer goods. The largest market share is occupied by goods imported from non-CIS countries. In the first half of the year, traffic volumes steadily increased compared to the previous year, however, a further weakening of the ruble since August led to a decline in purchases of foreign goods and, as a result, the volume of air cargo transportation.

According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, the volume of international cargo transportation fell by 8.7%, and domestic - by 14.2%. However, the real scale of the decline is much wider - the largest share of the cargo transportation market is occupied by the Airbridgecargo company - it accounts for 58% of the total volume of transported cargo. At the same time, the company mainly carries out international transit, and most of its cargo enters Russia only at an intermediate landing. A similar situation is observed with Aeroflot and a number of other companies. Transit traffic, which showed an increase this year, is counted by the statistics authorities as international, but it is not related to production or prices.

In the meantime, other problems are brewing in the industry - international sanctions, rising fuel prices and an increase in the cost of maintaining the fleet of aircraft have also led to an increase in costs against the backdrop of declining demand, and after the exit of Transaero from the market, many destinations are still not closed by other carriers .

Thus, today the reduction in foreign trade flows has had a negative impact on the freight market, and the devaluation of the ruble and the fall in oil prices have led to an increase in the costs not only of individual companies, but of entire industries. Today, there is a reduction in investment and a freeze in construction everywhere. At the same time, the state continues to tighten the screws and increase taxes, leaving no room for the market to develop.

The problems faced by the customer in the logistics services market are very diverse.
Today, the Chinese economy is breaking all records in terms of growth and exports of products. At the moment, all types of products are produced there - from food, footwear and clothing to electronics and engineering products. The relatively low cost of these goods with their enough high quality determines the constant interest in them all over the world. Moreover, the economy of this country is on the path of "segmentation" of production, based on their "class", i.e., manufacturers deliberately build a line of goods from frankly "Fake" products of mass demand and the lowest price, to elite good quality and quite expensive.

In the Russian segment of the import of these products, the leading place is assigned. According to the customs terminals of the Far Eastern region of Russia, in percentage terms, most of all imported goods are Chinese goods, and this percentage is growing year by year. The range of goods supplied to the Russian Federation is also extremely diverse. A significant contribution to the total volume of imports is made by the light industry, today it is about 60% of the market. Textiles, shoes, accessories, toys, furniture, copies of famous brands, household goods, etc. Computers, laptops, mobile phones, tablets, cameras and other equipment, without which a modern person simply cannot imagine his existence. In recent years, in Russia, due to the quality combined with the low price, inexpensive cars, boats and yachts are very popular. Chinese machine tools and special equipment are widely used Russian manufacturers. Products Food Industry can be found on the shelves of any grocery store. And it's far from full list goods imported by the People's Republic of China.

As practice shows, many Russian campaigns have long found permanent business partners, and someone is just expanding their business and setting up the process of delivering products from China. But all of them are united by the task not only of finding the necessary goods, but also of optimizing the transportation and delivery of these goods to Russia. Low price is one of the most important advantages of goods produced in this part of Asia, because the factors of cost and quality of cargo delivery play an important role here. After all, if the shipping costs are too high, it will significantly raise market value product will undermine its competitiveness. Yes, and excessively long transportation of goods can also negatively affect the business.

So, optimizing the transportation of goods from China to Russia, as well as choosing a delivery method, is the most important task for any business. The economic and geographical features of our states, significant differences in the level of development of their infrastructures determine their own rules in the field of cargo transportation. There are a number of other factors that determine the method and time of delivery of purchased goods from China. The most important of these is the type of cargo.

Here, the customer enters the market of logistics services, where various difficulties may lie in wait for him. Let's look at the main problems that are usually encountered along the way:
- The reliability of the carrier company: this is perhaps the first and most difficult problem! When choosing a logistics company, pay attention to whether it has cargo insurance programs? How many years has it been on the market? Who are its partners on the Chinese side? (Here, the presence of own warehouses consolidation within the country)
- Customs clearance: any goods at the border go through the customs clearance procedure, and the time spent at this stage of delivery and the amount of tariffs and duties when declaring will depend on the experience of your logistics manager. (It should be noted that for a number commodity groups restrictions may be imposed, for example, on packaging, completeness, and it is very important that your logistician warns you about this before the car gets up at customs).
- Possible problems with a supplier, or an intermediate company that delivers your shipment from the factory to the distribution center. (Here, it is important to make sure that your manager owns foreign languages, it is easy to check by looking at the list of services of the company you have chosen, whether there is a service there - Trade Agency. You may not immediately order this service, but it is a guarantee that in case of unforeseen complications the carrier will be able to help you).

Article prepared by: prof. Serbul M. N.

The groupage cargo transportation segment, due to its specifics, remains the most non-transparent in the field of logistics services: it is rarely written about (especially in comparison with warehouse logistics and 3PL), and its representatives are usually not inclined to disclose detailed information about their activities.

With the help of industry experts, we tried to understand current state groupage cargo shipment market and evaluate its prospects.

Logistics companies in the groupage sector provide long-distance delivery services for relatively small packages, allowing shippers to avoid unnecessary transport costs. They consolidate shipments of different customers at their terminal to the economically justified volume of transportation and arrange delivery to the terminal at the destination, where the cargo is disbanded and delivered to the recipients.

It is important that most of the shipments fall on the share of enterprises, and not on parcels of individuals. The weight range of such shipments can vary from 1 kg to 10 tons, lighter loads fall into the category of parcels and are accepted by companies specializing in consolidated cargo transportation, only as an exception.

According to RBC.research, the market for logistics services in Russia in 2012 amounted to 260 billion rubles, that is, 12.7% of the total market for transport and logistics services. In the developed countries of Europe and America, this figure reaches 50% or more. Based on such a comparison, experts have been predicting a rapid outstripping growth of the logistics market in Russia for more than a decade, but it has not yet been observed. It is unlikely that in the absence of structural reforms in the economy, this figure will exceed 15-17% in the foreseeable future.

But 260 billion is the volume of the entire market, and what percentage is in the groupage cargo transportation segment? Strategy Partners Group held comparative analysis data, using indicators from countries where relevant statistics are maintained. In particular, the market for the transportation of groupage cargoes in the United States was considered as fully formed and at the same time commensurate with Russia in terms of delivery distance.

The term "groupage cargo", used in Russia, in the United States is divided into two different categories, which are always treated separately. These are parcels (weighing from 1 to 68 kg) and LTL (Less than Truck Load, heavier shipments, consolidated with other shipments for transportation in one vehicle). The $44 billion parcel delivery segment is home to courier companies such as FedEx, UPS and others. In the LTL segment with a volume of 39 billion, in addition to the above-mentioned courier companies, there are also cars transport companies such as YRC, ODFL, ABF, and rail carriers. The largest player in LTL is FedEx with $5 billion in revenue, 13% of the segment's total. “These numbers show how much the US trucking market has changed over the past 30 years. In the 80s, neither FedEx nor UPS had a presence in this segment, and now they have the tidbits, while LTL operators are fighting for the remaining customers, ”comments Andreas Appli, consultant at Cambridge Systematics, a world leader in transport planning.

With a total volume of the US market of transport and logistics services of 1.3 trillion dollars, the share of parcels and LTL segments in it is 7.2%. With allowance for the underdevelopment of the market and the high share of cargo transportation by own vehicles, it can be expected that in Russia this share is significantly lower. Most likely, this figure is closer to Poland, where the share of the groupage cargo segment is 4.0%. This indicator can be considered a moderately optimistic assessment of this segment of the logistics services market in Russia. Accordingly, the volume of the groupage cargo transportation segment in Russia is about 70 billion rubles. largest company segment - "ZhelDorEkspeditsiya", with a market share of about 15%. This is followed by "Business Lines" and PEK.

“The groupage transportation segment will, of course, grow in proportion to the growth of the economy - choose the forecast that you like best. In this case, its structure will change significantly. The displacement of traditional "collectors" from the "parcel" sub-segment by courier companies is only a matter of time. It is already quite active, for example, DPD, Pony Express. Others will also catch up - in the course of diversification beyond the core business," says Alexander Ermakov, Director consulting company Strategy Partners Group.

According to experts, the groupage transportation segment will continue its inertial growth, reaching by 2020 a volume of 80 billion rubles under the pessimistic scenario and 100 billion rubles under the optimistic scenario, while there will be significant changes in the supply structure with the strengthening of the position of courier companies.

“It is most likely that the groupage cargo market in Russia in 2014 will remain at the level of 2013 in terms of shipped weight and volume. With the adverse impact of macroeconomic factors, it is possible to reduce freight turnover in relation to 2013 to 3%. In monetary terms, growth is also not expected, because, despite the increase in costs caused by the rise in the cost of fuels and lubricants and the growth of tariffs of natural monopolies, transport companies will not be able to increase tariffs without losing their market share due to increased competition due to increased competition. Explosive growth of road transportation in the groupage cargo market will not happen in the near future, especially over long distances, since rail transportation by mail and luggage cars provides more high speed delivery and safety of the cargo,” says Nikolay Shadrin, head of the commercial analytics department at ZheldorExpedition Group of Companies.

Evgeny Firsov, CEO of the PEK company, assessed the groupage transportation market a little more optimistically: “To date, there are no official data on volumes in cargo turnover and ruble equivalent, so any expert assessments are their subjective vision of the market. According to the estimates of the PEK company, the groupage cargo market today is about 80-90 billion rubles. Of course, now there is a slowdown in the development of the market, but we do not foresee stagnation. If we think according to the optimistic scenario, then we predict the market growth from 2 to 6% per year (in comparable prices). A possible crisis predicted by a number of experts should not seriously affect our industry. We do not expect explosive market growth.”

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