Financial state of the enterprise: analysis and forecasting. Methods for forecasting the financial condition of an organization Predictive analysis of the financial condition of an organization

Economic essence, goals and assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise. Analysis of profit from the sale of marketable products, balance sheet profit. Methodology for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an organization according to financial statements.

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Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

1.1 Economic essence, goals and assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise

1.2 Methodology for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an organization according to financial statements

Chapter 2. Analysis of the financial condition in Gezler LLC

2.1 Brief description of Gezler Limited Liability Company

2.2 Analysis of the profit of the organization

2.3 Analysis of profit from the sale of marketable products

2.4 Analysis of retained earnings

Chapter 3. Forecasting and analysis of reserves for improving the financial position of Gezler LLC

Conclusion

Bibliography

Vveating

In market relations, an analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is especially necessary and should be aimed at further economic development of the enterprise, its strengthening, and increasing the efficiency of using economic potential.

With the onset of new economic relations, old concepts appeared in a new sense: competition, demand, supply, market conditions. The market is an economic system and, like every system, the market economy has its own laws. Their reflection is economic analysis. The analysis tells us about the profitability of products, reserves to reduce costs, the importance of factors influencing the production process, makes us think about the structure of the production cycle, competition, solvency of the organization, allows us to "see" the business activity of the enterprise, the market structure, the potential for the development of the economy, and most importantly allows the management of the economic the subject to make correct and timely decisions to improve the financial and economic activities of the organization.

The independence of enterprises, their economic and legal responsibility is increasing. The values ​​of financial stability and business entities are sharply increasing. All this significantly increases the role of analysis of their financial condition, availability, placement and use of funds. In the current time of an unstable economy, when there is a decline in industrial production and investment in production is significantly reduced, for effective work it is necessary to be able to analyze your past activities (in order not to repeat mistakes and use positive moments) and plan future activities.

To assess the financial stability of an enterprise, it is necessary to analyze its financial condition. The financial condition is a set of indicators reflecting the availability, placement and use of financial resources, especially the analysis of profit and profitability.

The activity of the production enterprise is carried out at the expense of profit. Therefore, in the system of economic analysis, it is of great importance to study the patterns of formation of the main source of income for an enterprise - profit.

Compared with other cost indicators, profit is most suitable for assessing the production and economic activities of an enterprise, since it expresses the result of this activity in value form. When evaluating profit, the growth in the volume of marketable products and sold products, the efficiency of the use of fixed production assets and other material, financial and labor resources by the enterprise are also evaluated.

The main purpose of this work is to investigate the financial condition of the company LLC "GEZLER", identify the main problems of financial activity and give recommendations on financial management.

Based on the goals, you can create tasks:

Characteristics of the property of the enterprise: fixed and working capital and their turnover, identification of problems;

Characteristics of the sources of funds of the enterprise: own and borrowed;

Analysis of profit from the sale of marketable products;

Analysis of balance sheet profit;

Assessment of financial stability;

Development of measures to improve financial and economic activities.

Methodical bases of the analysis of a financial condition of the enterprise.

To solve the above tasks, the annual financial statements of GEZLER LLC for 2010 - 2014 were used, namely:

Balance sheet (form No. 1 according to OKUD),

Appendix to the balance sheet (form No. 5 according to OKUD)

Statement of cash flows (form No. 4 according to OKUD)

Profit and loss statement (form No. 2 according to OKUD)

The object of the study is the limited liability company "GEZLER". The subject of analysis is the financial processes of the enterprise and the final production and economic results of its activities.

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

1.1 Economic essence, goals and evaluation of phifinancial state of the enterprise

The assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise is primarily due to the transition of our economy to market relations.

Under the financial condition refers to the ability of the company to finance its activities. It is characterized by: the availability of financial resources necessary for the normal functioning of the enterprise, the expediency of their placement and efficiency of use, financial relationships with other legal entities and individuals, solvency and financial stability.

Assessment of the financial condition is a way to reveal the financial well-being and dynamics of the development of an economic entity.

Assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise is carried out in the following cases:

1. Reorganization, restructuring, liquidation of the company.

2. Making a transaction for the sale or lease of a business (both individual parts and the entire property).

3. Revaluation of financial assets.

4. Obtaining various loans and investments.

5. Company property insurance.

6. Bankruptcy procedure with forced sale of the enterprise or its part.

The main purpose of the financial condition of the enterprise are:

1. Assessment of the dynamics of movement and the state of the composition and structure of assets.

2. Assessment of the dynamics of movement, composition, condition and structure of sources of own and borrowed capital.

3. Analysis of calculated and absolute indicators of the financial stability of the company, assessment of changes in the level and identification of trends in change.

4. Analysis of the company's solvency, liquidity of its balance sheet assets.

The result of assessing the financial condition of the enterprise is:

1. Established indicators of financial position.

2. Identified changes in the financial condition of the company in the spatial and temporal context.

3. Identified main factors that cause changes in the financial condition.

4. Conclusions and forecast on the main trends in the financial condition of the company.

In the domestic literature, the following main groups of tasks for the internal analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise are distinguished:

1. Identification of financial position.

2. Identification of changes in the financial condition in the spatio-temporal context.

3. Identification of the main factors that caused changes in the financial condition.

4. Timely identification and elimination of shortcomings in financial activities and the search for reserves to improve the financial condition of the enterprise and its solvency.

5. Forecasting possible financial results, economic profitability based on the actual conditions of economic activity and the availability of own and borrowed resources, the development of financial condition models for various options for using resources.

6. Development of specific measures aimed at more efficient use of financial resources and strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise. The content of the external assessment of the financial condition is largely determined by the sphere of economic interests of users.

The assessment of the financial condition can be carried out using various types of models that allow structuring and identifying the relationship between the main indicators. There are three main types of models: descriptive, predicative and normative.

Predicative models are models of a predictive, prognostic nature. They are used to predict the income of the enterprise and its future financial condition. The most common of them are: calculation of the point of critical sales volume, construction of predictive financial reports, dynamic analysis models (rigidly determined factor models and regression models), situational analysis models.

Normative models allow you to compare the actual performance of enterprises with the expected, calculated according to the budget. These models are mainly used in internal financial analysis. Their essence is reduced to the establishment of standards for each item of expenditure for technological processes, types of products, responsibility centers and to the analysis of deviations of actual data from these standards. The analysis is largely based on the use of rigidly determined factor models.

Analysis of the financial stability of the enterprise includes two areas:

analysis of the availability and sufficiency of real equity capital;

analysis of the availability of reserves with sources of their formation.

To assess the financial stability of joint-stock companies, the main role is played by the net assets indicator, defined as the difference between the amount of assets accepted for calculation and the amount of liabilities accepted for calculation. Net assets coincide for joint-stock companies with the indicator of real equity capital. In the course of analysis of the difference between real equity capital and authorized capital, the sufficiency of real equity capital is established.

When analyzing the availability of reserves with sources of their formation, certain indicators are used:

availability of own working capital;

availability of long-term sources of reserves formation;

the total value of the main sources of reserves formation.

Three indicators of the availability of sources of formation of reserves correspond to three indicators of the availability of reserves with sources of their formation, on the basis of which four types of financial situations are distinguished, a schematic representation of which is shown in Figure 1.

Along with absolute indicators, financial stability is also characterized by financial ratios presented in Table 1.

Figure 1 - Algorithm for identifying the type of financial situation

Profitability indicators characterize the profitability of the organization and are calculated as the ratio of profit indicators to indicators of the average assets of the enterprise for the reporting period. As an indicator of profit, gross profit, profit from sales, profit before tax, profit from ordinary activities, net profit can be used.

table 2

Relative coefficients of financial stability of the enterprise

Coefficient name

What shows

Best value intervals

Maneuverability coefficient, KM

Shows how much of the company's equity capital is in a mobile form, allowing you to freely maneuver capital

Coefficient of autonomy of sources of reserves formation, KA.I.

Shows the share of own working capital in the total amount of the main sources of inventory formation

The growth of the coefficient is assessed positively

Reserves back-to-back ratio, BER

Sufficiency of own working capital

Greater than or equal to 0.6-0.8;

BER is greater than or equal to KA.I.

Equity ratio, KO.S.O.

Determines the share of own working capital in the total amount of current assets

Greater than or equal to 0.1

As an indicator of assets, the values ​​of all assets of the enterprise, non-current assets, current assets, individual components of non-current and current assets can be used. In the analysis of the profitability of the enterprise, carried out in the second chapter, the net profit of the enterprise is considered as an indicator of profit, and as an indicator of assets - the average values ​​for the reporting period of all assets of the enterprise, non-current and current assets, net assets.

The main objective of an organization's financial activities is to decide how, where and when to use cash to ensure efficient production and maximum profit.

In a market economy, when the rights of an organization in the field of financial and economic activity are significantly expanded, the role of a qualitative analysis of the financial condition of an organization, assessing its solvency, liquidity, creditworthiness and financial stability is noticeably increasing. It is important to objectively assess the financial condition of the organization, since no manager should miss the potential opportunities to increase the profits of the organization, which can only be identified on the basis of an analysis of the financial condition. A well-conducted analysis of the financial condition of the organization, its solvency, liquidity, creditworthiness and financial stability is also necessary because the profitability of any organization, the amount of its profit largely depends on its solvency.

1.2 Methodology for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an organization according to financial statements

There is a special technique for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Its content lies in forecasting and evaluating the organization on this issue in accordance with accounting and reporting data.

The financial condition of the enterprise in this case should be considered from the following positions:

It is necessary to evaluate the organization in terms of its economic content;

There should be regular forecasting of the state of the company;

Analysis and assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise should take place in two directions:

Internal analysis will necessarily be carried out by employees of this organization in accordance with the approved plan;

An audit (external analysis) should be determined by the interests of other users and be carried out according to official financial statements.

The financial condition of the enterprise will be successful if it is able to exist, develop, and also maintain a balance in its assets and liabilities in a situation of changing external and internal reality.

The fact is that even with high incomes, an organization may experience difficulties if it misuses its financial resources. For example, if it was decided to invest them in excess reserves or to allow a large debt on loans.

Among the positive factors of economic stability, one can single out the availability of sources and reserves for the formation of cash reserves, and among the negative ones - their size.

In accordance with various economic characteristics, all reporting information is grouped into separate consolidated articles, which in international practice are called elements of financial reporting. The main elements of financial statements are assets, liabilities, equity, income, expenses, profit and loss. The first three elements characterize the funds of the enterprise and the sources of these funds on a certain date; the remaining elements reflect the operations and events of economic life that affected the financial position of the enterprise during the reporting period and caused changes in the first three elements. All elements of the financial statements are reflected in the reporting forms, among which the main ones are the Balance Sheet and the Profit and Loss Statement.

Among the main methods of financial analysis are the following:

1) preliminary reading of accounting (financial) statements;

2) horizontal analysis;

3) vertical analysis;

4) trend analysis;

5) method of financial ratios;

6) factor analysis;

7) comparative analysis;

8) cash flow calculation;

9) specific analysis.

Initial acquaintance with the reporting of the enterprise allows you to study the absolute values, draw conclusions about the main sources of raising funds, the directions of their investment, the main sources of profit, the accounting methods used and changes in them, the organizational structure of the enterprise, and so on. The information obtained during the preliminary reading gives a general idea of ​​the financial condition of the enterprise, however, it is not enough for making managerial decisions.

Horizontal analysis - comparison of each reporting position with the previous period. This method allows you to identify trends in reporting items or their groups and, on the basis of this, calculate the basic growth rate. Horizontal and vertical analysis complement each other.

Vertical (temporal) analysis - determination of the structure of the final financial indicators with the identification of the impact of each reporting position on the result as a whole, that is, the calculation of the share of individual reporting items in the overall final indicator and the assessment of its impact.

Vertical analysis allows:

to study the results of economic activity on the basis of relative indicators that smooth out the influence of subjective external factors that occurs when working with absolute indicators and makes it difficult to compare them in dynamics;

conduct inter-farm comparisons of various organizations that differ in the amount of resources used and other indicators of volume.

Trend analysis is a type of horizontal analysis, it is used in cases where the comparison of indicators is made for more than three years. In this case, long-term comparisons are usually carried out using indices. Each reporting position is compared with a number of previous periods to determine the trend. Trend - the main trend of the indicator. The calculation of a series of index numbers requires the selection of a base year for all indicators.

Analysis of relative indicators (coefficients) - calculation of the ratios of reporting data, determination of the relationship of indicators. These ratios are of great interest because, firstly, they allow you to determine the range of information that is important for users of financial statements in terms of decision-making; secondly, they provide an opportunity to more deeply assess the position of a given reporting unit in the management system and the trends in its change. A big advantage of the ratios is also that they smooth out the negative impact of inflationary processes, which can significantly distort the absolute figures of financial statements and thus make it difficult to compare them in dynamics. This method is the most convenient due to its simplicity and efficiency. Its essence lies in comparing the coefficients calculated according to the reporting data with generally accepted standard coefficients, average industry norms or corresponding coefficients, and with numerical data based on the enterprise's activities for previous years.

Comparative analysis is both an on-farm comparison of individual indicators of a company, subsidiaries, divisions, workshops, and an inter-farm comparison of the indicators of a given company with those of competitors, with average industry and average general economic data.

The method of financial ratios is based on the existence of certain relationships between individual reporting items. Ratios allow you to determine the range of information that is important for users of information about the financial condition of the enterprise in terms of decision-making. The big advantage of the ratios is that they smooth out the negative impact of inflation, which significantly distorts the absolute figures of financial statements, thereby making it difficult to compare them in dynamics.

Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise is based on the system of financial ratios. The indicators most often used in the analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise can be divided into four groups.

Factor analysis is used to study and measure the impact of factors on the value of the effective indicator. Factor analysis can be direct, when the performance indicator is divided into its component parts, and reverse, when individual elements are combined into a common performance indicator.

An important tool in financial analysis is the calculation of cash flow. Presented in the form of an annual financial forecast, it shows the expected monthly cash receipts and monthly payments to repay the debt. This calculation makes it possible to assess the peak need of the enterprise for additional funds and its ability to earn enough cash to pay off short-term debt during the operating cycle.

It can be noted that different authors in the methodology for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise, based on the data of its financial statements, include a huge number of different financial indicators. There is no universal method of analysis.

Chapter 2Finance analysisnew state in Gez LLCler"

2.1 Brief description of Gezler Limited Liability Company

The company was registered on November 22, 1999 by the registrar Inspectorate of the Ministry of Taxes of Russia for the Pervomaisky district of Rostov-on-Don. Director of the organization - Ivanchenko Nelya Petrovna. The company LLC "GEZLER" is located at 344065, ROSTOV-ON-DON, UL. ORSKAYA, 31, MARKET "MERKURY", SHOP N 89, the main activity is "Retail trade in men's, women's and children's clothing."

The company is also registered in such categories as: "Retail sale of hats", "Retail sale of clothing accessories: gloves, ties, scarves, belts, suspenders, etc.". The main branch of the company is "Retail". The organization was assigned TIN 6166040471, PSRN 1036166003323. The company LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY "GEZLER" was liquidated on December 31, 2012.

Organizational and legal form (OPF) - limited liability companies. Type of property - the property of foreign citizens and stateless persons.

LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY "GEZLER", Rostov-on-Don, Rostov region.

Legal address: 344065, ROSTOV-ON-DON, st. ORSKAYA, 31, MARKET "MERCURY", SHOP №89.

Founders LLC "GEZLER"

The founders of the company according to the Statregister as of September 2006:

§ * CITIZENS;

The founders of the company according to Statregister as of August 2012:

§ * TURKISH CITIZENS;

The founders of the company according to Statregister as of October 2012:

§ * Turkish citizens;

The founders of the company according to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities as of February 2012:

§ * Gezler Forhat - (participation share - 100%);

Mini-extract from the Unified State Register of Legal Entities:

§ Primary registration

January 8, 2003

§ Registrar

Inspectorate of the Ministry of Taxes and Taxes of Russia for the PERVOMAYSKY district of ROSTOV-ON-DON

§ Director

Ivanchenko Nelya Petrovna

§ Authorized capital

8 400 rub.

§ Legal form

Limited liability companies

§ Type of ownership

Property of foreign citizens and stateless persons

§ OGRN

1036166003323

§ TIN

6166040471

§ Checkpoint

616601001

§ OKPO

51599323

§ OKATO

60401378000

Primary occupation:

* Retail sale of men's, women's and children's clothing;

Additional activities of the company:

* Retail sale of headwear;

* Retail sale of clothing accessories (gloves, ties, scarves, belts, suspenders, etc.);

All-Russian classifier of products by type of economic activity:

* Services for the retail trade of women's clothing made of fur;

* Services for the retail trade of women's underwear;

* Retail trade services for men's sportswear;

* Services for the retail trade of children's hats;

* Retail trade services for women's hosiery;

* Clothing retail services;

* Retail trade services of men's leather clothing;

* Retail trade services for men's hosiery;

The GEZLER LLC company carries out the following activities (in accordance with the OKVED codes specified during registration):

§ Clothing retail

§ Retail sale of men's, women's and children's clothing (Primary activity)

· Retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of household and personal items

o Other retail sale in specialized stores

§ Clothing retail

§ Retail sale of hats (Secondary activity)

· Retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of household and personal items

o Other retail sale in specialized stores

§ Clothing retail

§ Retail sale of clothing accessories: gloves, ties, scarves, belts, suspenders, etc. (Additional activity)

The company operates in the following industries (in accordance with the OKONKh classifier):

· Trade and public catering

o Domestic trade

§ Retail

Retail sales include:

· proceeds from the sale of goods in the retail trade network for cash and on credit;

release from catering establishments of own production and purchased goods;

· proceeds from the sale of clothes, shoes, hats, underwear from tailoring workshops for individual orders of consumers;

· proceeds from the sale of printed materials (newspapers, magazines, books, posters) in the retail network and by subscription to the population, organizations, enterprises;

· proceeds of workshops for dry cleaning and dyeing of clothes;

· proceeds from the repair of clothing, shoes, hats, watches, television, video, radio equipment, furniture and other items made by consumer services enterprises;

· proceeds from the repair and maintenance of cars, motorcycles, including the cost of spare parts carried out by specialized enterprises;

· proceeds from the sale of fuel and lubricants, spare parts, and other care products for cars and motorcycles by gas stations;

Proceeds from the sale of agricultural products, livestock and poultry directly by agricultural enterprises, subsidiary farms;

Other revenue (for cutting fabrics during the sale, delivery of goods to your home, from the sale of relevant goods by trading organizations to rental centers, etc.).

The main tasks of the “analysis of retail turnover can be reduced to the following:

Checking the fulfillment of plans (forecasts) of trade turnover, satisfaction of consumer demand for individual goods, development of long-term standards for indicators of trading activity; determination of trends in the economic and social development of retail enterprises; establishing the validity, tension, optimality of plans;

· study, quantitative measurement and generalization of the influence of factors on the implementation of the plan and the dynamics of retail turnover; comprehensive assessment of the trading activities of the enterprise;

· identification of ways, opportunities and reserves for the growth of trade turnover, improving the quality of customer service, the efficiency of using the material and technical base of trade, commodity and labor resources;

· development of optimal, strategic and tactical management decisions for the development of retail trade turnover of a trading enterprise.

General Director - manages all activities of the enterprise. Organizes the work and effective interaction of production units, workshops and other structural divisions of the enterprise, directs their activities to achieve high rates of development and improve production; increasing labor productivity, production efficiency and product quality on the basis of the widespread introduction of new technology, scientific organization of labor, production and management.

Table 3 shows the main performance indicators of GEZLER LLC for 2010-2014.

Table 3 - Key performance indicators of GEZLER LLC for 2010-2014

Indicators

Absolute deviation, (+, -)

Growth rate, %

2010 to 2014

2010 to 2014

2010 to 2014

2010 to 2014

1. Cost of property, thousand rubles.

2. The cost of fixed assets, thousand rubles.

3. The cost of current assets, thousand rubles.

4. Own capital, thousand rubles.

5. Short-term liabilities, thousand rubles

6. Proceeds from sales, thousand rubles.

7. Cost price, thousand rubles

8. Gross profit, thousand rubles.

9. Commercial expenses, thousand rubles.

10. Profit from sales, thousand rubles.

11. Profit before taxation, thousand rubles.

12. Net profit, thousand rubles.

According to Table. 3 in comparison with 2010 in 2014 the property decreased by 758 thousand rubles, and compared with 2011 by 2739 thousand rubles. The cost of fixed assets in 2020 amounted to 24 thousand rubles. which is 12 thousand rubles. less than in 2006, and 17 thousand rubles. less than in 2012

The cost of current assets in the analyzed period also decreased. If in 2010 their cost amounted to 9110 thousand rubles, then in 2014 it decreased to 8364 thousand rubles. Compared to 2010, in 2014 the value of current assets decreased by 746 thousand rubles, and compared to 2012 by 2722 thousand rubles.

The equity capital of the company tends to grow and amounted to 3514 thousand rubles in 2014, which is 1773 thousand rubles. more than in 2012. Short-term liabilities, on the contrary, decreased, which is assessed on the positive side.

Revenue from the sale of products (works, services) in 2014 increased compared to 2010 by 20,706 thousand rubles, compared to 2012 by 4,907 thousand rubles. The cost of products (works, services) also tend to increase. In 2014, compared with 2010, the cost of production increased by 16,783 thousand rubles, and compared with 2012, by 3,524 thousand rubles.

In 2014, the company received a gross profit in the amount of 8427 thousand rubles. The net profit of the enterprise tends to increase. So, in 2014, net profit amounted to 3173 thousand rubles, which is 1449 thousand rubles. more than in 2010 and 666 thousand rubles. more than in 2012. The increase in net profit is due to the growth in sales volumes.

Table 4 - Analysis of the composition and movement of settlements with debtors in GEZLER LLC for 2014

Indicators

Funds flow

Balance growth rate, %

Balance at the beginning of the year

arose

Redeemed

Balance at the end of the year

amount, thousand rubles

amount, thousand rubles

amount, thousand rubles

amount, thousand rubles

Total accounts receivable

including overdue

Of it lasting more than 3 months

Table 4 shows that during 2014 there were accounts receivable in the amount of 1,455 thousand rubles, while accounts receivable in the amount of 1,568 thousand rubles were repaid. The balance at the end of 2008 amounted to 25 thousand rubles. In the total amount of accounts receivable, overdue debt arose in 2014 in the amount of 101 thousand rubles. or 6.94%, 117 thousand rubles were repaid. or 7.46%. From it, overdue debts lasting more than 3 months arose in the amount of 29 thousand rubles. or 2%, 32 thousand rubles were repaid. or 2.04%.

Forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise is based on a whole system of indicators that characterize the structure of sources of capital formation and its placement, the balance between assets and sources of their formation, the efficiency and intensity of capital use, the solvency and creditworthiness of an enterprise, its investment attractiveness, etc. For this purpose, the dynamics of each indicator is studied. In some cases, a projected income statement is prepared.

2.2 Enterprise Profit Analysis

Profit and profitability are among the most important indicators characterizing the efficiency of the production and economic activities of the enterprise.

More than any other indicator, profit reflects the results of all aspects of the enterprise. Its value is affected by the volume of products, its range, quality, cost level, fines, penalties and other factors.

Profit affects such a general indicator as profitability, the state of own working capital, solvency and the size of incentive funds.

Identification of reserves of growth and profitability can be established through a system of interrelated areas of economic analysis.

The task of economic analysis is to assess the total amount of profit and its composition, to check the validity of the plan and its implementation in terms of profit to the level of profitability, to reveal the influence of a number of factors on the deviation of the actual amount of profit from the planned one, to identify reserves for profit growth and profitability.

2.3 Analysis of profit from the sale thenboiled products

Profit from the sale of marketable products is the result of production activities and the circulation process and occupies the largest share in the balance sheet profit of the enterprise. Profit from the sale of products consists of two parts:

1. Profit from the sale of marketable products

2. Profit from other sales

It is defined as the difference between the proceeds from the sale of commercial products (excluding VAT) and the cost of commercial products.

To carry out the analysis, we will use the company's financial performance reports and compile the following analytical table 5.

From the analysis of the data given in the table, it follows that the profit from the sale of marketable products increased by 8291 thousand rubles.

The following factors could have influenced the change in profit:

Changes in prices for sold products;

change in the volume of products sold;

shifts in the structure and range of products sold;

Change in the production cost of goods sold;

change in business expenses;

increase in production cost and commercial expenses

Table 5

Indicators for the analysis of profit from the sale of marketable products

The name of indicators

Meaning of indicators

At s / s prices 2012.

According to action prices

Production cost, thousand rubles

Selling expenses, thousand rubles

Total cost of goods sold, thousand rubles

Proceeds from the sale of products (without VAT), thousand rubles.

Profit, thousand rubles

Consider the influence of each of these factors.

1. Change in profit prices

Ptsen \u003d Qrf - Qrpf;

Ptsen140118-122759=17359 thousand rub.

Due to the increase in prices for sold products, profit increased by 17359 thousand rubles. rub.

2. Change in the volume of sales of marketable products

(Srpf: Srp) - Pp; Por = Pp

Por \u003d 13427 * (105747 / 101334) -13427 \u003d 585 thousand rubles.

Due to the growth in sales in the reporting year, profit increased by 585 thousand rubles. rub.

3. The impact of shifts in the structure and range of products sold.

(Qrpf / Qrp - Srpf / Srp); Pstr \u003d Pp

Pstr \u003d 13427 * (122759 / 114761-105747 / 101334) \u003d 352 thousand rubles.

In connection with the growth in the volume of sales of the share of more profitable products, the profit at the enterprise increased by 352 thousand rubles. rub.

4. Change in the production cost of goods sold

Pps / s \u003d Srf- Srpf

PPS/s = 112515-100843=11672 thousand rubles

The increase in production costs in the reporting year due to the increase in prices for raw materials and materials led to a decrease in profit by 11,672 thousand rubles.

5. Change in selling expenses

Pkr \u003d Srf- Srpf

Pcr \u003d 5885-4904 \u003d 981 thousand rubles.

Due to the increase in commercial expenses in the reporting year, compared with the previous year, the profit decreased by 981 thousand rubles.

6. Increase in production cost due to structural changes.

Ppps \u003d Srph Qrpf / Qrp - Srpf;

Ppps = 97005**122759/114761-100843=2923 thousand rub.

The increase in the volume of sales of the share of products, for which the production cost decreased, led to an increase in profit by 2923 thousand rubles.

7. Increase in commercial expenses due to structural changes.

Pkkr \u003d Srph Qrpf / Qrp - Srpf;

Pkkr \u003d 4329 * 122759 / 114761-4904 \u003d -273 thousand rubles.

Due to the increase in the volume of products sold, for which selling expenses increased, the profit decreased by 273 thousand rubles.

The total influence of all factors affecting the change in profit is equal to the deviation of profit from the sale of marketable products in two adjacent years.

PpkrPpps + Pkr + Pps/s + Pstr + Por + Ptsen + Ptot =

Ptotal \u003d 17359 + 585 + 352-11672-981 + 2923-273 \u003d 8291 thousand rubles

2.4 Balance sheet profit analysis

The balance sheet profit characterizes the final results of all production and economic activities and non-industrial economic objects of the enterprise.

Economic Profit Formula:

Pbal \u003d P real + Ppr real + Posn f + VR

VR - non-operating results - fines, penalties, forfeits received or paid by the enterprise in the reporting year.

The analysis of balance sheet profit compared to the previous year shows the impact of the cost of raw materials, materials, fuel and other material and technical resources, changes in prices for product sales and the profit calculation methodology. In order to exclude this influence, it is necessary to bring the amount of profit into comparable conditions.

For analysis, tables are compiled. 6 and table 7.

The data in tables 6 and 7 show that in 2013 the balance sheet profit exceeded the profit from sales by 324 thousand rubles. rub.; in 2014, the profit from sales was more than the balance sheet by 1041 thousand rubles. Such changes occurred as a result of income and losses received from non-operating activities. In 2013, these incomes amounted to 4,444 thousand rubles, and in 2014, 90 thousand rubles. rubles, while losses in 2014 amounted to 1131 thousand rubles. rub., and in the previous year 115 thousand rubles.

Loss reduction is one of the reserves for increasing the balance sheet profit of a joint-stock company.

Table 6

Table 7. Profits and losses of LLC for 2014

Table 8. Profits and losses of LLC for 2013

Chapter 3Forecasting and analysis of reserves to improve the financial situationGezler LLC

Analyzing LLC "Geze" for 2008-2012, we can conclude that the company is not in a difficult financial condition. But still there is a need to improve the financial condition of the enterprise, for this it is necessary to carry out certain measures.

Solving the problems of financial recovery of the enterprise is possible with the use of universal and standard measures that ensure its withdrawal from the financial crisis. The systems of these measures, implemented on the basis of appropriate scientific and methodological support and aimed at achieving certain goals, form mechanisms for ensuring financial stability. They are divided into internal mechanisms used by the enterprise itself, and external, implemented with the help of third-party legal entities or individuals.

The main types of internal mechanisms for the financial recovery of the enterprise are: operational, tactical and strategic. Their purpose and content is schematically presented in Table. 17.

Table 17

Internal mechanisms of financial recovery of the enterprise LLC "Business"

Stages of financial recovery

Financial recovery mechanisms

operational

tactical

strategic

Elimination of insolvency of the enterprise

The system of measures for financial recovery, providing "cutting off the excess"

Restoring the financial stability of the enterprise

The system of measures of financial recovery, carrying out the "compression of the enterprise"

Ensuring the financial balance of the enterprise in the long run

A system of financial recovery measures based on sustainable economic growth

The operational mechanism of financial recovery includes measures aimed at reducing the size of the current financial liabilities of the enterprise in the short term and at increasing the volume of monetary assets that provide urgent repayment of these liabilities. The essence of this mechanism is to reduce the size of current financial needs and certain types of liquid assets. The main content of the operational mechanism of financial recovery is to ensure the balance of monetary assets and short-term financial liabilities of the enterprise.

The analytical work carried out to study the financial condition showed that this enterprise belongs to the category of financially unstable, there are negative aspects in the work of the enterprise.

GEZLER LLC has considerable reserves for improving the implementation process, namely:

It is necessary to strive to improve the quality of products and reduce their cost, although this is not easy in the current situation;

It is necessary not to forget about such an important channel for selling products as selling to your employees, as people will be interested in producing quality products. And despite the fact that the selling price here will be low (below the market), it is beneficial for the farm (money comes immediately, it is easier to sell high-quality products on the market and to the state, and already selling prices here will grow in direct proportion to quality).

To develop an enterprise strategy, it is necessary to conduct a deep analysis of both the external and internal environment of the enterprise, while evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise.

The strengths of the company are:

High level of remuneration, ensuring a constant influx of qualified personnel;

Highly educated, qualified and experienced personnel of the enterprise;

Developed production infrastructure of the enterprise;

Introduction of new technologies.

The current state of the enterprise can be represented by the following characteristics:

Stable composition of property;

The business activity of the enterprise is stable;

The financial situation is unstable;

Indicators of profitability of the enterprise, tending to decrease.

The main threats to the enterprise are:

General decline of the national economy;

Lack of experience in state management of a market economy;

Weak and unsettled base of legal regulation;

Excessive tax pressure.

The most important ways of recovery include:

Improving product quality;

Formation of an economically rational production potential of the enterprise;

The current situation provides for the development of measures to improve the financial condition of the enterprise. To improve the entire structure of the property and funds of the enterprise, a necessary condition is to find funds for this on the most favorable terms. The main such source is a positive result of activity - profit. The amount of profit received directly depends on the volume of sales, therefore, by increasing it, it is possible to increase the financial result of the activity.

To reduce receivables, you can suggest the following measures:

Improve contractual discipline;

To exercise control among buyers over the formation and timely repayment of receivables;

Conclusion of a collection agreement with a bank for an acceptance form of settlement with buyer enterprises for mandatory deliveries, as well as conclusion of an agreement with the bank on the automatic calculation of a fine for each day of delay in case of late payment for electricity services with the issuance of a payment request to the bank serving the buyer;

To conclude agreements with customers who are solvent and financially stable, for which it is advisable to form a financial service at the enterprise, whose duties would include checking the solvency of customers and conducting marketing research;

Strongly control the status of accounts receivable settlements, that is, the use of Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that allow you to analyze the quality of debt, by using aggregate formulas;

Having up-to-date data on overdue debts, send notifications.

To reduce accounts payable in GEZLER LLC, you can offer the following:

Strengthen control over the status of accounts payable;

It is necessary to repay the resulting debt to suppliers and contractors in a timely manner, for which the financial service of the enterprise needs to control financial flows and transfer money from the current account to the suppliers' accounts on time.

Table 9 - Forecast balance of GEZLER LLC for the coming year

Indicators

For 2014

Deviation, (+, -)

Non-current assets, total:

fixed assets

Current assets, total:

VAT floor purchased values

Short term accounts receivable owes.

Cash

Own capital, total:

Authorized capital

Undestributed profits

Current liabilities, total

Loans and credits

Accounts payable, total

including:

Debt to suppliers and contractors

Debt to staff

Debt to off-budget funds

Debt on taxes and fees

Based on the forecasted balance sheet, it can be concluded that the total amount of the balance sheet has not changed. Equity capital increased by 2434 thousand rubles. by increasing profits.

Short-term liabilities decreased by the same amount due to the repayment of accounts payable, in particular, debts to suppliers and contractors by 2234 thousand rubles, debts to the organization's personnel by 100 thousand rubles, debts to off-budget funds by 30 thousand rubles. and debts on taxes and fees for 70 thousand rubles.

The proposed measures will contribute to the improvement of the financial condition and the state of settlements in GEZLER LLC.

Conclusion

Now the company is reaching a qualitatively new level in its work. OOO GEZLER sees its main goal in increasing the social and economic importance of retail trade and creating the prerequisites for a new civilized approach to the organization of retail distribution for the Russian market, adequate to the current economic conditions. Orientation to the consumer and the needs of the market, combined with the constant maintenance and expansion of the range of goods and services offered, is the main task of the company. GEZLER LLC establishes and maintains close ties with product manufacturers in different regions of the country. The establishment of strong economic relations greatly facilitates the sale of goods and leads to a reduction in production costs for the sale of finished products. The company is doing a lot of work to stimulate sales of products, study consumer demand and market conditions.

The analysis of the financial condition is the most important characteristic of the business activity and reliability of the enterprise. It determines the competitiveness of the enterprise and its potential in business cooperation, is the guarantor of the effective implementation of the economic interests of all participants in economic activity, both the enterprise itself and its partners.

The main source of information about the financial activities of the enterprise is the financial statements, which became public. In a market economy, the accounting (financial) statements of economic entities become the main means of communication and the most important element of information support for financial analysis. When analyzing the financial condition, it is necessary to identify the reasons for the unstable position of the enterprise and outline ways to improve it.

The current asset endowment ratio tends to decrease. Working capital ratios in production and settlements also decreased. Return on working capital increased and amounted to 0.379 in 2014, and return on sales amounted to 0.06. Let's calculate the performance indicators for the use of non-working capital and investment activity of the organization.

In 2014, the amount of accounts payable amounted to 3,124 thousand rubles. After the events, accounts payable will decrease by only 2,434 thousand rubles. At the same time, the debt to suppliers and contractors will decrease by 2234 thousand rubles, the debt to the organization's personnel by 100 thousand rubles, the debt to extra-budgetary funds by 30 thousand rubles. and arrears in taxes and fees for 70 thousand rubles.

Bibliography

1.Regulations on accounting. 3rd ed. add. - Rostov n / a: publishing house "Phoenix", 2013. - 256 p.

2. Anti-crisis management. Teoriya i praktika dlya studentsov vuzov, obuchayushchikh po spetsial'nosti ekonomiki i upravleniya [Theory and practice for university students studying economics and management], ed. V.Ya. Zakharov. - 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: UNITI-DANA, 2011 - 304s.

3. Bakanov M.I., Sheremet A.D. Theory of economic analysis: textbook, M.: Finance and statistics, 2011. - 398 p.

4. Accounting: Textbook / P.S. Bezrukikh, V.B. Ivashkevich, N.P. Kondrakov and others; Ed. P. S. Bezrukikh. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Accounting, 2009. - 624 p.

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Evaluation of the financial analysis of OJSC "Magnit"

Analysis and forecasting of the financial condition of the enterprise

The main goal of the company is to maximize profits on the basis of ensuring competitiveness and efficiency. To achieve the main goal, OJSC “Magnit” is assigned the following tasks, the solution of which will allow reaching the desired result:

1) Ensuring sustainable growth of economic performance of the company;

2) Expansion of the range of services provided to the company's clients in the main and other activities;

3) Formation of a corporate governance system through unconditional observance of the rights of shareholders, ensuring maximum transparency and information openness of the company's activities, organizing an effective system for monitoring and assessing the quality of company management;

4) Maintaining a positive image, forming constructive relationships and obtaining support from investors;

5) Ensuring the reliability of supplies, increasing the efficiency of operations, using the technical potential.

An analysis of the property status of the enterprise showed that in the company in question, receivables greatly exceed accounts payable. Accounts receivable may arise both in the case of shipment of finished products to buyers (rendering services) to the customer without prepayment, and in case of violation of the delivery time on advances paid to suppliers. Overdue accounts receivable also means an increase in the risk of non-payment of debts and a decrease in profits. Therefore, the company needs to reduce the maturity of payments due to it.

Payments can be accelerated by improving settlements, timely execution of settlement documents, advance payment, and the use of a bill of exchange form of payment.

Based on the analysis and assessment of the risk of loss of the company's liquidity, it can be concluded that, relative to the main balance sheet proportion, the company "Magnit" is not absolutely liquid, since the company's long-term liabilities exceed the value of slow-moving assets and hard-to-sell assets are more stable liabilities, this indicates that that the most liquid working capital of the enterprise - not enough to cover the amount of accounts payable.

But regarding the ratio analysis of liquidity, the company is completely absolutely liquid in all ratios, which means that the company is able to repay current liabilities at the expense of current assets. Thus, the company can pay off its obligations urgently. Even taking into account the low probability that all creditors of the enterprise will present their debt claims to it at the same time

Analysis and assessment of financial stability showed that the company has absolute financial stability. And this means that the company is independent of creditors and reserves and costs are fully covered by its own resources.

Based on the analysis of business activity, it can be concluded that OAO Magnit has high turnover and profitability ratios, which indicates a significant level of business activity.

To improve performance, you should:

Reduce accounts receivable. This will lead to an acceleration in the turnover of current assets, a decrease in the operating and, accordingly, financial cycle, as a result of which profitability will increase;

Monitor the status of settlements with buyers on deferred (overdue) debts;

Keep track of accounts receivable and accounts payable. A significant predominance of receivables creates a threat to the financial stability of the enterprise and makes it necessary to attract additional (usually expensive) funds;

Update fixed assets, acquire new technologies;

Invest in profitable projects of other business entities in order to receive profitable interest;

Early repay bank loans and other obligations in order to reduce debt service costs.

To begin with, we will predict the balance of the enterprise in table 12.

Table 12 - Forecast balance for 3 years

Elements (types) of balance sheet assets

Non-current assets, total

Intangible assets

fixed assets

Long-term financial investments

Current assets, total

Receivables

Short-term financial investments

Cash

Other current assets

Total amount of assets (property)

Based on this table 12, the following conclusion can be drawn.

Non-current assets decreased, as well as all of its sub-items, i.е. fixed assets and long-term financial investments.

Current assets increased due to all items except stocks, they had a negative trend over the forecast period.

In total, the value of assets for 3 years increased by 37252964 thousand rubles.

Table 13 - Forecast indicators of liquidity of OJSC "Magnit" for 3 years

In this table, we can say that the absolute liquidity ratio has increased over the forecast period compared to 2014, as well as the quick liquidity ratio and the maneuverability ratio.

Table 14 - Forecasting financial stability ratios of OJSC “Magnit” for 3 years

Indicators

Independence coefficient

Funding ratio

Table 14 shows a downward trend for all indicators. In particular, the financing ratio has decreased, by 2017 the forecast showed a negative value, this will not have the best effect on the enterprise.

Table 15 - Performance indicators of JSC "Magnit" for 3 years

Table 15 shows how there was an increase in return on assets, as well as return on equity. As for the profitability of current assets and the profitability of products sold, they are declining in the same way as in 2013 they were declining.

Bankruptcy is, as a rule, a consequence of the combined action of internal and external factors. In developed countries with a market economy, a stable economic and political system, the ruin of business entities is 1/3 due to external factors and 2/3 to internal ones.

Consider one of the main approaches to predicting the financial condition from the perspective of a possible bankruptcy of an enterprise:

Thus, the Altman index is a function of some indicators characterizing the economic potential of the enterprise and the results of its work over the past period. Table 16 shows the Altman model for the OJSC "Magnit" enterprise.

Table 16 - Altman model for the enterprise OJSC "Magnit" for 2012-2014 and forecasting for 3 years

Indicator

Factor

Z \u003d 1.2 * K 1 + 1.4 * K 2 + 3.3 * K 3 + 0.6 * K 4 + K 5

This table 16 allows us to draw a border and make a judgment that the dynamics of the increase in this indicator is positive - Z> 2.99.

Table 17 shows the Z-score and bankruptcy probability.

Table 17 - Degree of probability of bankruptcy

Z-score value

Probability of bankruptcy

1.81 or less

from 2.71 to 2.90

Very high

There is a possibility

Very low

Therefore, we can conclude that the financial condition of our company at this stage is quite stable (Z=43.047), i.e. there is no chance of bankruptcy. The forecast accuracy for one year is 95%, for two - 83%. As for the forecast value, it also increases over 3 years, which is a positive effect for the company's activities.

And the final step will be forecasting the number of stores of OJSC "Magnit" for 3 years in table 18.

Table 18 - Number of stores in OJSC "Magnit"

In table 18, one can also observe a gradual upward trend in all indicators, which means that the enterprise is developing and every year more and more stores of different types are opened.

To further improve the financial and economic activities of OJSC “Magnit”, it is necessary to take the following measures:

a) Reduce the turnover of receivables, which can be achieved by improving settlements with buyers. It is necessary to find opportunities and take measures to recover a possible part of the receivables. Subsequently, it is necessary to prevent the possibility of overdue receivables, for which you can take an advance payment for services rendered, set fixed payment terms and develop a system of fines for their violation or a system of discounts for timely payment. In addition, the organization needs to continuously monitor the status of receivables, timely identify and eliminate negative trends. These measures will lead to an additional inflow of funds, through which the Company will be able to pay off its creditors. Thus, the financial stability of OAO Magnit will improve.

b) It is necessary to carry out all possible measures to reduce costs - the main source of increasing profits. A serious reserve for this is the expansion of production, an increase in the volume of gas supplies, and an increase in the range of services provided. Thus, with a larger volume of production, ceteris paribus, the amount of profit received by the enterprise is greater.

Compliance with the strictest economy regime in all areas of the Company's production and economic activities is of paramount importance in the struggle to reduce the cost of production. OJSC “Magnit” needs to pay special attention to the range of its products, reduce the level of resource intensity, and, if possible, develop more favorable conditions for contractual relations with suppliers, since these factors have influenced the increase in costs.

c) Consistently implement the mode of saving all resources, reduce the cost of maintenance of production and management.

Table 19 - rationale for the cost-effectiveness of the proposed recommendations

Indicators

Actual values, 2014

Change

Absolute, thousand rubles

Relative, %

Absolute liquidity ratio

Quick liquidity ratio

Current liquidity ratio

Agility factor

Independence coefficient

Financial stability ratio

Funding ratio

Return on assets

Return on current assets

ROI

Return on equity

Profitability of sold products

Z-score value (degree of probability of bankruptcy)

Total number of stores

From this table, the following conclusion can be drawn:

Absolute liquidity ratio increased by 137% and amounted to 2.223. Thus, the company can pay off its obligations urgently. In this regard, given the admissibility of the conditions prevailing at the enterprise, it can be considered liquid according to the compilation for the forecast year 2015.

The quick liquidity ratio, as well as the current liquidity ratio, increased by 84% and amounted to 3.332. This indicator is of great interest to OJSC Magnit's creditors. Also, this indicator allows you to establish the extent to which current assets cover short-term liabilities.

The maneuverability coefficient increased by 23% and amounted to 0.462. This indicates the adequacy of the company's own funds in a mobile form.

The coefficient of independence decreased by 8% and amounted to 0.576. This characterizes the share of funds invested by the owners in the total value of the property of the enterprise.

The financial stability ratio decreases by 9% and amounts to 0.721. This change means that the risk of the enterprise is maximum, having sold the property formed at the expense of its own funds, the enterprise will not repay its debt obligations.

The funding ratio decreased by 54%. The value of this indicator allows us to speak about the rather low financial stability of the enterprise and the high risk for its creditors.

Return on assets increased by 27%. This means that from each ruble invested in total assets, the company will receive a profit of 51% in the forecast year.

The profitability of the company's current assets decreased by 34% and amounted to 68,693.

Return on investment, as well as equity, increased by 29%.

Profitability of sold products decreased by 56%. This means that for every ruble of sold products, the company will receive 11% of profit in the forecast year.

The indicator of the degree of probability of bankruptcy increased by 26%. This means that in the forecast year, the probability of bankruptcy decreased by another 26%.

The last indicator characterizing the total number of stores at the JSC enterprise"Magnet", increased by 28%. This means that the company will open 12,469 stores in the forecast year.

In general, we can say that in the next forecast periods, the enterprise will improve its financial condition and production.

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Introduction

1. Analysis of the financial condition of an economic entity

2.1 Analysis and models for assessing the property status of an enterprise

3. Assessment of the general financial condition of the enterprise on the example of Kameya LLC

3.3 Evaluation of production activities

3.4 Evaluation of business activity

3.5 Financial soundness assessment

Conclusion

List of used literature

Introduction

One of the goals of financial analysis is to assess the financial condition of the enterprise. Since the financial condition of an enterprise is characterized by a set of indicators that reflect the process of formation and use of its financial resources, in a market economy it reflects the final results of the enterprise. Financial analysis is an indispensable element of both financial management at an enterprise and its economic relations with partners, with the financial and credit system, with tax authorities, etc. Thus, it is clear how important the assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise is. And that this problem is the most urgent in our country, during the transition to a developed market economy, is obvious and indisputable.

The tasks set in this work coincide with the tasks of financial analysis:

Identification of changes in indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise;

Identification of facts affecting the financial condition of the enterprise;

Assessment of quantitative and qualitative changes in the financial position of the enterprise;

Assessment of the financial position of the enterprise on a certain date;

Determining trends in the financial condition of the enterprise.

The purpose of this work is to conduct a general assessment of the financial condition of a particular enterprise (in this case, Kameya LLC). Also give an assessment not only from a quantitative point of view, but also from an analytical point of view, i.e. give a description of the quantitative changes that will be revealed in the course of calculations for the period 2006-2007.

1. Analysis of the financial condition of an economic entity

1.1 The concept, the value of the financial condition of the enterprise

Under the financial condition of the enterprise (FSP) refers to the ability of the enterprise to finance its activities. It is characterized by the availability of financial resources necessary for the normal functioning of the enterprise, the expediency of their placement and efficiency of use, financial relationships with other legal entities and individuals, solvency and financial stability.

The analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise is based on indicators characterizing the degree of liquidity of the enterprise, its business activity, the effectiveness of managing sources of funds, profitability and market activity of the company.

FSP can be stable, unstable and crisis. The ability of the enterprise to make payments in a timely manner, to finance its activities on an expanded basis, indicates its good financial condition. FSP depends on the results of its production, commercial and financial activities. If the production and financial plans are successfully implemented, then this has a positive effect on the FSP, and, conversely, as a result of the failure to fulfill the plan for the production and sale of products, its cost increases, revenue and the amount of profit decrease, therefore, the FSP and its solvency deteriorate.

A stable financial position, in turn, has a positive impact on the implementation of production plans and the provision of production needs with the necessary resources. Therefore, financial activity as an integral part of economic activity is aimed at ensuring the planned receipt and expenditure of financial resources, the implementation of settlement discipline, the achievement of rational proportions of equity and borrowed capital and its most efficient use. The main goal of financial activity is to decide where, when and how to use financial resources for the effective development of production and maximum profit.

In order to survive in a market economy and prevent the bankruptcy of an enterprise, you need to know well how to manage finances, what the capital structure should be in terms of composition and sources of education, what share should be occupied by own and borrowed funds. You should also know such concepts of a market economy as business activity, liquidity, solvency, creditworthiness of an enterprise, profitability threshold, financial stability margin (safety zone), degree of risk, effect of financial leverage, and others, as well as the methodology for their analysis. The main sources of information for the analysis of the FSP are the reporting balance sheet (form No. 1), income statement (form No. 2), capital flow statement (form No. 3) and other forms of reporting, primary and analytical accounting data, which decipher and detail individual balance sheet items.

1.2 Goals and objectives of the financial analysis of the enterprise

Financial analysis in the financial management system of an enterprise in its most general form is a method of accumulating, transforming and using financial information, with the aim of:

Assess the current and prospective property and financial condition of the enterprise;

Assess the possible and appropriate pace of development of the enterprise from the standpoint of their financial support;

Identify available sources of funds and assess the possibility and expediency of their mobilization;

Predict the position of the enterprise in the capital market.

The purpose of such an analysis is to establish the possibility of a profitable investment in order to maximize profit and eliminate the risk of loss.

The purpose of the analysis is not only to establish and evaluate the FSP, but also to constantly carry out work aimed at improving it. The analysis of the FSP shows in what areas this work should be carried out, makes it possible to identify the most important aspects and the weakest positions in the FSP. In accordance with this, the results of the analysis provide an answer to the question of what are the most important ways to improve the FSP in a particular period of its activity. But the main purpose of the analysis is to timely identify and eliminate shortcomings in financial activity and find reserves for improving the FSP and its solvency. To assess the stability of the FSP, a whole system of indicators characterizing changes is used:

capital structure of the enterprise for its placement to the sources of education;

efficiency and intensity of its use;

solvency and creditworthiness of the enterprise;

stock of its financial stability.

As part of financial analysis, the following tasks are solved:

Firstly, the degree of balance between the movement of material and financial resources is revealed, the flows of equity and borrowed capital are assessed in the process of economic circulation, aimed at extracting maximum or optimal profit, increasing financial stability, etc.;

Secondly, the correctness of the use of funds to maintain an effective capital structure is assessed;

Thirdly, it becomes possible to control the correctness of the organization's financial flows, compliance with the norms and standards for spending financial and material resources, and the expediency of spending.

The constituent stages of diagnosing the financial condition of an enterprise are:

Collection and analytical processing of initial information for the estimated period;

Justification of the system of indicators used and their classification;

Determining the type of financial stability of the enterprise.

Financial analysis is an essential element of financial management and audit.

1.3 Methodology for analyzing the financial condition

The methodology for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise should consist of three large interconnected blocks:

Analysis of the economic potential of an economic entity, which includes an analysis of the property status: the composition and dynamics of the enterprise's property and the sources of its formation (building an analytical balance sheet, vertical analysis of the balance sheet, horizontal analysis, studying qualitative changes in the property status);

Analysis of the financial position of the enterprise on the basis of financial ratios, including an assessment of performance (business activity and profitability), financial stability, liquidity, solvency and creditworthiness of the enterprise;

Development of possible prospects for the development of the enterprise.

There are various ways to conduct financial analysis (methods of reading financial statements), among which the most important are: 1. Horizontal analysis. 2.Vertical analysis. 3. Analysis of financial ratios. 4.Trend analysis. 5. Comparative analysis. 6. Factor analysis.

2. Methodology for assessing and analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise

2.1 Analysis and models for assessing property status

The financial condition of the enterprise is characterized by the effective placement and use of funds (assets), their sufficiency for current and future economic activities and the sources of their formation (equity and liabilities, i.e. liabilities). Therefore, a preliminary assessment of the financial position of the enterprise is carried out on the basis of the information presented in the balance sheet of the enterprise and its appendices.

At this stage of the analysis, an initial idea of ​​the activities of an economic entity is formed, changes in the composition of the enterprise's property and their sources are identified, and relationships between indicators are established.

For a general assessment of the dynamics of the financial condition of the enterprise, balance sheet items should be grouped into separate specific groups based on liquidity (asset items) and urgency of liabilities (liability items). On the basis of the aggregated balance sheet, an analysis of the structure of the enterprise's property is carried out.

Analyzing the comparative balance, it is necessary to pay attention to the change in the share of the value of own working capital in the value of property, the ratio of the growth rates of equity and borrowed capital, as well as the ratio of the growth rates of receivables and payables. The study of the structure of the balance sheet liabilities allows us to establish one of the possible reasons for the financial instability (stability) of the organization. So, for example, an increase in the share of own funds from any of the sources helps to strengthen the financial stability of the organization. At the same time, the presence of retained earnings can be considered as a source of replenishment of working capital and a decrease in the level of short-term accounts payable.

In order to draw accurate conclusions about the reasons for the change in this proportion in the structure of assets, it is necessary to conduct a more detailed analysis of the sections and individual items of the asset balance, in particular, to assess the state of the organization's production potential, the efficiency of the use of fixed assets and intangible assets, the turnover rate of current assets and others

In addition, a detailed analysis of the composition and movement of assets can be carried out using the data from the appendix to the balance sheet (form No. 5).

The presence of intangible assets in the organization's assets (lines 110-112) indirectly characterizes the strategy chosen by the organization as innovative, since it invests in patents, licenses, and other intellectual property.

When studying the structure of inventories, it is advisable to focus on identifying trends in changes in such elements of current assets as raw materials, materials and other similar values, costs in work in progress, finished products and goods for resale, goods shipped.

An increase in the share of inventories may indicate:

Increasing the production potential of the organization;

The desire, through investments in inventories, to protect the organization's monetary assets from depreciation under the influence of inflation;

The irrationality of the chosen economic strategy, as a result of which a significant part of current assets is immobilized in stocks, whose liquidity may be low.

The stability of the financial position of the enterprise largely depends on the appropriateness and correctness of investing financial resources in assets. In the course of the functioning of the enterprise, both the value of assets and their structure undergo constant changes. The most general idea of ​​the qualitative changes that have taken place in the structure of funds and their sources, as well as the dynamics of these changes, can be obtained using vertical and horizontal analysis of reporting.

Vertical analysis shows the structure of enterprise funds and their sources. The criteria for changes in the property status of the enterprise that have taken place, and the degree of their progressiveness, are indicators such as the share of the active part of fixed assets in the active part, the coefficient of validity, the share of fast-moving assets, the share of leased fixed assets, the share of receivables.

The indicators characterizing the property status of the enterprise are:

The amount of economic assets owned and operated by the enterprise (NBV) gives a generalized value estimate of the size of the enterprise as a whole. This is the accounting valuation of assets listed on the balance sheet of the enterprise. The growth of this indicator indicates an increase in the property potential of the enterprise. When analyzing balances in an assessment, this indicator is calculated by subtracting regulatory items from the balance sheet total.

NBV=TA-LS-TS-OD, (1)

where NBV is the amount of economic assets owned and operated by the enterprise;

TA - total assets on the balance sheet;

LS-losses;

TS - own shares in the portfolio;

OD-debt of the founders on contributions to the authorized capital.

The share of the active part of fixed assets () is calculated according to the “Appendix to accounting analysis” (as well as the three subsequent indicators). According to regulatory documents, the active part of fixed assets is understood as machines, equipment and vehicles. The growth of this indicator in dynamics is regarded as a favorable trend.

The cost of the active part of the fixed assets / the cost of fixed assets (2)

The depreciation coefficient () characterizes the share of the cost of fixed assets written off to costs in subsequent periods in the original (replacement) cost. It is used in the analysis as a characteristic of the state of fixed assets. Calculated according to the formula:

Accumulated depreciation / initial (replacement) cost of fixed assets (3)

Page 394 of the reference to section 3 f. No. 5 / p. 370 f. No. 5 (4)

The renewal factor () shows what part of the fixed assets available at the end of the reporting period are new fixed assets.

The cost of received (new) fixed assets for the period / cost

OS at the end of the period (5)

The retirement rate () shows what part of the fixed assets with which the enterprise began operations in the reporting period, retired due to dilapidation and for other reasons.

Cost of retired (written off) fixed assets for the period / cost (6)

OS at the beginning of the period.

2.2 Analysis and models for assessing liquidity and solvency

The financial condition of the enterprise from a short-term perspective is assessed by indicators of liquidity and solvency, in the most general form characterizing whether it can timely and in full make settlements on short-term obligations to counterparties.

The need to analyze the liquidity of the balance sheet arises in market conditions due to increased financial constraints and the need to assess the solvency of the enterprise, that is, its ability to timely and fully pay off all its obligations. The liquidity of the balance sheet is defined as the degree of coverage of the obligations of the enterprise by its assets, the period of transformation of which into cash corresponds to the maturity of the obligations. The less time it takes for this type of asset to acquire a monetary form, the higher its liquidity.

Analysis of the liquidity of the balance sheet consists in comparing the funds of the asset, grouped by the degree of their liquidity and arranged in descending order of liquidity, with the liabilities of the liability, grouped by their maturity and arranged in ascending order of maturity.

To determine the liquidity of the balance sheet, it is necessary to compare the results of the asset and liability groups. The balance is considered absolutely liquid if the following ratios take place:

BUT 1 P 1 , BUT 2 P 2 , BUT W P W , BUT 4 P 4 .

The fulfillment of the first three inequalities entails the fulfillment of the fourth inequality, so it is essential to compare the results of the first three groups by asset and liability. The fourth inequality is "balancing" in nature; at the same time, it has a deep economic meaning, since its implementation testifies to the observance of the minimum condition for financial stability - the presence of the enterprise's own working capital.

In the case when one or more inequalities have a sign opposite to that fixed in the optimal variant, the liquidity of the balance to a greater or lesser extent differs from the absolute one. At the same time, the lack of funds in one group of assets is compensated by their excess in another group, although compensation takes place only in terms of value, since in a real payment situation, less liquid assets cannot replace more liquid ones. Therefore, if one or more ratios do not correspond to absolute liquidity, then liquidity is insufficient.

Table 1

Grouping of balance sheet items by degree of liquidity and maturity of liabilities

A1 - the most liquid assets - the company's cash and short-term financial investments (securities).

P 1 - the most urgent obligations - accounts payable, as well as loans not repaid on time, from form No. 5.

A2 - quickly realizable assets - accounts receivable with a maturity of 12 months and other current assets.

P 2 - short-term liabilities - short-term loans and borrowings.

A 3 - slow-moving assets - items of section II of the asset, with the exception of “Deferred expenses”, as well as items from section I of the asset of the balance sheet “Long-term financial investments” - “Investments in other organizations.

P 3 - long-term liabilities - these are balance sheet items related to section V, long-term loans and borrowed funds.

A 4 - hard-to-sell assets - items in section I of the balance sheet asset "Non-current assets", with the exception of the items in this section included in the previous group, as well as debtors with a maturity of more than 12 months after the reporting date.

P 4 - permanent liabilities - articles of the liability section of the balance sheet. To maintain the balance of assets and liabilities, the total of this group is reduced by the amount of losses and “Deferred expenses”.

Comparison of the most liquid funds and quickly realizable assets with the most urgent obligations and short-term liabilities allows us to find out the current liquidity. Comparison of slow-moving assets with long-term and medium-term liabilities reflects prospective liquidity.

* current liquidity, which indicates the solvency (+) or insolvency (---) of the organization for the nearest time period to the moment in question:

TL \u003d (A1 + A2) - (P1 + P2); (7)

* prospective liquidity is a solvency forecast based on a comparison of future receipts and payments:

PL \u003d A3 - PZ. (eight)

Comparison of the results of the first group by asset and liability, i.e. A 1 and P 1 (terms up to 3 months), reflects the ratio of current payments and receipts.

Comparison of the results of the second group in terms of assets and liabilities, i.e. A 2 and P 2 (terms from 3 to 6 months), shows a trend of increasing or decreasing current liquidity in the near future. Comparison of the totals for assets and liabilities for the third and fourth groups reflects the ratio of payments and receipts in a relatively distant future. The analysis carried out according to this scheme quite fully represents the financial condition in terms of the possibilities of timely settlements.

Thus, the analysis of the liquidity of the balance sheet is reduced to checking whether the liabilities in the liabilities side of the balance sheet are covered by assets, the period of transformation of which into cash is equal to the maturity of the liabilities.

The overall liquidity ratio of the balance sheet should be used for a comprehensive assessment of the liquidity of the balance sheet as a whole. With the help of this indicator, an assessment is made of changes in the financial situation in the organization in terms of liquidity. It shows the ratio of the sum of all liquid funds of the enterprise to the sum of all payment obligations (short-term, long-term and medium-term), provided that various groups of liquid funds and payment obligations are included in the indicated amounts with weight coefficients that take into account their significance from the point of view terms of receipt of funds and repayment of obligations. This indicator allows you to compare the balance sheets of an enterprise relating to different reporting periods, as well as the balance sheets of various enterprises, and find out which balance sheet is more liquid.

K ol \u003d (p. 290-p. 230) / (p. 610 + p. 620 + p. 660) f. No. 1 (9)

The absolute liquidity ratio is equal to the ratio of the most liquid assets to the sum of the most urgent liabilities and short-term liabilities. Under the most liquid assets, as well as when grouping balance sheet items to analyze the liquidity of the balance sheet, means the company's cash and short-term securities. Short-term liabilities of the enterprise, represented by the sum of the most urgent liabilities and short-term liabilities, include: accounts payable and other liabilities; loans not repaid on time; short-term loans and borrowings.

K al \u003d (p. 260 + p. 250-p. 252) / (p. 610 + p. 620 + p. 660) f. No. 1 (10)

The absolute liquidity ratio characterizes the solvency of the enterprise on the date of the balance sheet.

To calculate the critical liquidity ratio (another name is the intermediate coverage ratio), accounts receivable and other assets are included in the numerator of the relative indicator. It reflects the predicted payment capabilities of the enterprise, subject to timely settlements with debtors.

To next \u003d (p. 240 + p. 250 + p. 260) / (p. 610 + p. 620. + p. 660) f. No. 1 (11)

The critical liquidity ratio characterizes the expected solvency of the enterprise for a period equal to the average duration of one turnover of receivables.

The level of the coverage ratio depends on the industry of production, the length of the production cycle, the structure of stocks and costs, and a number of other factors.

The current liquidity ratio characterizes the expected solvency of the enterprise for a period equal to the average duration of one turnover of all working capital.

The current liquidity ratio allows you to establish the multiplicity of current assets cover short-term liabilities. This is the main indicator of solvency. The normal value of this indicator is from 1 to 2.

table 2

Optimal values ​​of liquidity ratios

In the course of the analysis, each of the coefficients given in Table 2 is calculated at the beginning and end of the period. If the actual value of the coefficient does not correspond to the normal limit, then it can be estimated by the dynamics (increase or decrease in the value).

The signal indicator, in which the financial condition is manifested, is the solvency of the enterprise, which means its ability to meet the payment requirements of suppliers of equipment and materials in accordance with business contracts, repay loans, pay staff, make payments to the budget on time and in full. The ability to regularly and timely repay debt obligations is ultimately determined by the availability of funds from the enterprise, which depends on the extent to which partners fulfill their obligations to the enterprise. In addition, with a certain amount of sources of funds, the enterprise has more money, the less other elements of assets. In the process of turnover of funds, the money is either released or redirected as the cost of replenishing non-current and current assets.

A deeper assessment of solvency is made using solvency ratios, which are relative values. One of the main indicators characterizing the solvency of an enterprise is the availability of its own working capital, which can be defined as the amount by which the total amount of working capital usually exceeds the amount of short-term liabilities.

The lack of own working capital can lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise, therefore, changes in the amount of own working capital from one reporting period to another are analyzed with great attention.

The value of this indicator is determined by the equity ratio, which is calculated as the ratio of the difference between capital and reserves and the actual value of non-current assets to the actual value of current assets.

Since the concepts of solvency and liquidity of an enterprise are close in essence, the liquidity ratios discussed above also characterize the solvency of the analyzed enterprise.

If the current liquidity ratio at the end of the reporting period is less than 2, and the equity ratio at the end of the reporting period is less than 0.1, the analyzed enterprise is recognized as insolvent and the coefficient of loss of solvency is calculated for a period equal to 3 months.

An increase in the share of borrowed capital in the capital structure of an enterprise is considered risky. The enterprise is obliged to pay interest on loans in a timely manner, to repay the loans received in a timely manner. And it does not depend on the level of profit. The higher the value of the coefficient, the greater the debt of the enterprise and the lower the assessment of the level of long-term solvency.

Creditworthiness, that is, the ability of an enterprise to repay loans on time, is generally assessed in the same way as solvency. It should be noted that creditworthiness is not only the ability of an enterprise to repay a loan, but also to pay interest on it. Therefore, to determine the creditworthiness, a special system of indicators has been developed; for this, consider table 3.

Table 3

Scheme for assessing the creditworthiness of an enterprise

Indicators required for evaluation

Conventions

Estimated indicators

1. Profit

2. Sales proceeds (sales volume)

3. Net assets

4. Fixed assets

5. Net current assets

6. Equity

8. Total asset value

9. Short-term debt

10. Accounts receivable

11.Current assets

12. Liquid assets

1. The ratio of profit to net assets shows how effectively assets are used to create profit.

2. The ratio of profit to sales proceeds. For this indicator, profit from sales is taken into account. This indicator is very important for assessing the possible increase in profits in the event of an increase in sales.

3. The ratio of sales volume to net assets. The growth of this indicator is favorable for the enterprise, but only on condition that the implementation is not unprofitable.

4. The ratio of sales to the cost of fixed assets. This indicator evaluates the efficiency of the use of buildings, structures, machines, equipment.

5. The ratio of sales proceeds to net current assets.

Net current assets are current assets minus short-term debts of the enterprise. Shows the effectiveness of the use of current assets. The high level of this indicator favorably characterizes the creditworthiness of the enterprise. 6. The ratio of sales proceeds to equity (capital and reserves). This is the turnover of own sources of funds.

7. Ratio of proceeds from sales to stocks. The indicator gives an approximate definition of the period for which stocks are needed (for example, its value equal to 4:1, according to the annual balance, indicates a three-month turnover of stocks). A high level of the indicator indicates a rapid inventory turnover.

8. The ratio of fixed assets to the value of assets.

9. The ratio of stocks to net current assets. This is an estimate of the level of working capital associated in inventories, work in progress, finished goods. An increase in the indicator may mean the accumulation of obsolete stocks or difficulties in marketing products.

10. The ratio of short-term debt to capital and reserves. If short-term debt is several times less than equity, then you can pay off all creditors in full.

11. The ratio of receivables to sales proceeds. This indicator gives an idea of ​​the size of the average period of time spent on receiving money due from buyers. For example, a ratio of 1:4 means a three-month receivables maturity. Acceleration of accounts receivable turnover, i.e., a decrease in the indicator, can be considered as a sign of an increase in the creditworthiness of an enterprise, since buyers' debts turn into money faster.

12. The ratio of current assets to short-term debt. This indicator is the current liquidity ratio, which was discussed in detail above.

13. The ratio of liquid assets to short-term debt of the enterprise. Liquid assets are current assets less inventories and other items that cannot be immediately converted into cash. This indicator is close in content to the overall coverage ratio discussed above.

2.3 Analysis and models for assessing financial stability

An assessment of the financial condition of an organization will be incomplete without an analysis of financial stability. The task of financial stability analysis is to assess the size and structure of assets and liabilities. This is necessary to answer the questions: how independent is the organization from a financial point of view, is the level of this independence growing or decreasing, and whether the state of its assets and liabilities meets the objectives of its financial and economic activities

In order for the condition of solvency to be fulfilled, it is necessary that cash and funds in settlements, as well as tangible current assets, cover short-term liabilities. It is necessary to determine what absolute indicators reflect the essence of financial stability. The answer is related to the balance sheet model from which the analysis originates. In market conditions, this model has the following form:

OS + ZZ + DS + Y \u003d SS + DK + KK + C + R P, (12)

where conditional

OS - fixed assets and investments;

ZZ - stocks and costs;

DC cash, short-term financial investments, settlements (accounts receivable) and other assets;

SS -- sources of own funds;

KK -- short-term loans and borrowings;

DC -- long-term loans and borrowings;

C - loans not repaid and term;

R P - settlements (accounts payable) and other liabilities.

The ratio of the cost of material working capital and the values ​​of own and borrowed sources of their formation determines the stability of the financial condition of the enterprise. The provision of reserves and costs with sources of formation is the essence of financial stability, while solvency is its external manifestation.

The most general indicator of financial stability is the surplus or shortage of sources of funds for the formation of reserves and costs, obtained as a difference in the value of sources of funds and the value of reserves and costs. This refers to the security of certain types of sources (own, credit and other borrowed), since the sufficiency of the sum of all possible types of sources (including short-term accounts payable and other liabilities) is guaranteed by the identity of the results of the asset and liabilities of the balance sheet.

To characterize the sources of the formation of reserves and costs, several indicators are used that reflect the different degree of coverage of different types of sources:

Availability of own working capital, equal to the difference between the value of sources of own funds and the value of fixed assets and investments:

SOS \u003d SS - OS - Y (13)

Availability of own and long-term borrowed sources of formation of reserves and costs or functioning capital obtained from the previous indicator by an increase in the amount of long-term loans and borrowed funds:

FK \u003d (SS + DC) - OS - Y (14)

The total value of the main sources of the formation of reserves and costs, equal to the sum of the previous indicator and the value of short-term loans and borrowings (which in this case do not include loans that are not repaid on time):

VI \u003d (SS + DK) + KK-OS - U (15)

Each of the above indicators of the availability of sources of formation of reserves and costs should be reduced by the amount of immobilization of working capital. Immobilization can be hidden in the composition of both stocks and debtors and other assets, but its value can only be determined within the framework of internal analysis based on accounting data. The criterion here should be the low liquidity or complete non-liquidity of the discovered doubtful amounts.

Since long-term loans and borrowings are used mainly for capital investments and for the acquisition of fixed assets, in fact, the availability indicator (SOS) reflects the adjusted value of own working capital. Therefore, the name "the presence of own and long-term borrowed sources" indicates only the fact that the initial value of own working capital (SOS) is increased by the amount of long-term loans and borrowed funds.

Three indicators of the availability of sources of formation of reserves and costs correspond to three indicators of the availability of reserves and costs with sources of their formation:

Surplus (+) or shortage (-) of own working capital

± F C \u003d SOS - ZZ (16)

Surplus (+) or shortage (-) of own and long-term borrowed sources of reserves and costs

±F T = KF - ZZ (17)

Surplus (+) or shortage (-) of the total value of the main sources for the formation of reserves and costs

±F O \u003d VI - ZZ (18)

The calculation of three indicators of the availability of reserves and costs by the sources of their formation makes it possible to classify financial situations according to their degree of stability.

It is possible to distinguish four types of financial stability, which are reflected in table 4:

Table 4

Indicators by types of financial stability

Indicators

Type of financial situation

absolute stability

normal stability

unstable state

crisis state

F C \u003d SOS - ZZ

F T \u003d KF - ZZ

F O \u003d VI - ZZ

1) absolute stability of the financial condition, which is rare and represents an extreme type of financial stability, i.e. three-component indicator of the type of financial situation: S = (1,1,1). It is given by the conditions

33< СОС + КК; (19)

2) the normal stability of the financial condition of the enterprise, which guarantees its solvency, i.e. S = (0,1,1):

ZZ \u003d SOS + KK ; (20)

3) an unstable financial condition, associated with a violation of solvency, in which, nevertheless, it remains possible to restore balance by replenishing sources of own funds and increasing own working capital, i.e. S = (0,0,1).

ZZ \u003d SOS + KK + С °, (21)

where С° - sources, weakening the financial tension;

KK - bank loans for inventory items, taking into account the amounts set off by the bank when lending.

If the conditions are not met, then financial instability is considered abnormal and reflects a trend towards a significant deterioration in financial condition.

4) a financial crisis in which the company is on the verge of bankruptcy, because in this situation, cash, short-term securities and receivables of the company do not even cover its accounts payable and overdue loans, i.e. S = (0,0,0).

33 SOS + QC. (22)

Sustainability can be restored by reasonably reducing inventory levels and costs.

An essential characteristic of the stability of the financial condition is the coefficient of maneuverability, equal to the ratio of the company's own working capital to the total value of sources of own funds. It shows what part of the enterprise's own funds is in a mobile form, allowing relatively free maneuvering of these funds. A high value of the coefficient positively characterizes the financial condition.

The agility factor is supplemented by the factor of provision of stocks with own working capital. It is determined at the beginning and at the end of the reporting period as the ratio of the value of own working capital to the value of the company's reserves.

One of the most important characteristics of the stability of the financial condition of the enterprise, its independence from borrowed sources of funds is the coefficient of autonomy, equal to the share of sources of funds in the total balance sheet. The normal minimum value of the autonomy coefficient is estimated at 0.5. The normal limit Y 0.5 means that all the obligations of the enterprise can be covered by its own funds. Compliance with the restriction is important not only for the enterprise itself, but also for its creditors. The growth of the autonomy coefficient indicates an increase in the financial independence of the enterprise, a decrease in the risk of financial difficulties in the future. From the point of view of creditors, this trend increases the security of the enterprise's obligations. The coefficient of autonomy is determined at the beginning and at the end of the reporting period as the ratio of the value of equity to the value of the entire property of the enterprise.

The coefficient of financial dependence is an indicator inverse to the coefficient of concentration of own capital (autonomy). The growth of this indicator in dynamics means an increase in the share of borrowed funds in the total amount of sources. If its value drops to 1, it means that all funding comes from own sources.

The financing ratio (the ratio of own and borrowed funds) gives the most general assessment of the financial stability of the enterprise. For example, its value at the level of 0.5 shows that for every ruble of own funds invested in the assets of the enterprise, there are 50 kopecks. borrowed sources. The growth of the indicator indicates an increase in the dependence of the enterprise on external financial sources, that is, in a certain sense, a decrease in its financial stability.

The financial stability ratio is the ratio of the total value of own and long-term borrowed sources of funds with the total cost of non-current and current assets. It shows how much of the assets are financed from sustainable sources. In addition, it reflects the degree of independence (dependence) of the enterprise on short-term borrowed sources of coverage.

2.4 Analysis and business evaluation models

Traditionally, economic analysis is concerned with comparing actual data on the results of the production and economic activities of an enterprise with planned indicators, identifying and evaluating deviations of the fact from the plan. Then the total amount of deviations was decomposed into separate amounts due to the influence of various factors. In a market economy, the most important measure of work efficiency is performance. The most common characteristic of performance is considered to be profit. Consideration of the essence of performance allows us to determine the main tasks of its analysis, which are to:

Determine the sufficiency of the results achieved for the market financial stability of the enterprise, reducing competitiveness;

To study the sources of occurrence and features of the impact on the performance of various factors;

Consider the main directions for further development of the analyzed object.

Business activity in the financial aspect is manifested in the speed of turnover of funds. The analysis of business activity consists in the study of the levels and dynamics of various coefficients - turnover indicators, and:

The size of the annual turnover depends on the rate of turnover of funds;

With the size of the turnover, and, consequently, with the turnover, the relative value of conditionally fixed costs is associated: the faster the turnover, the less these costs fall on one turnover;

The acceleration of turnover at one stage or another of the circulation of funds depends on how quickly the turnover takes place at other stages.

Quantification and analysis of business activity can be done in two ways:

The degree of implementation of the plan;

Resource Efficiency Level

To implement the first line of analysis, it is necessary to take into account the comparative dynamics of the main indicators. So, the following ratio is optimal:

Tpb > Tr > So > 100% (26) , where Tpb, Tr,

So - respectively, the rate of change in profits, profitability, advanced capital.

This dependency means that:

The economic potential of the enterprise is growing;

Compared with the increase in economic potential, the volume of sales is growing at a higher rate, i.e. enterprise resources are used more efficiently;

Profits are growing at a faster rate, which indicates a relative reduction in production and distribution costs.

This ratio can be called the “golden rule of enterprise economics”. But deviations from this ideal dependence are possible, but they should not always be considered as negative. At present, this ratio is complicated by the distorting effect of inflation. / Proceeds from sales (line 010 f. No. 2). (23)

The turnover of accounts payable (OKZ) reflects the period from the moment of occurrence of accounts payable until the moment of its repayment.

OKZ \u003d [(str. 621 + 622 + 623) * 360] / Cost of goods sold (str. 020 f. No. 2). (24)

The duration of the turnover of stocks (OZ) - characterizes the average period of storage and processing:

OZ \u003d [(p. 210 + 220-215) * 360] / Cost of goods sold (p. 020 f. No. 2). (25)

Turnover period of finished products (OGP) - characterizes the average period of the finished product in warehouses

OCP=[(p. 214)*360]/ Cost of goods sold (p. 020 f. No. 2). (26)

The turnover of all current assets (OSR) - characterizes the duration of the entire production and economic cycle

OSR=[(line 290-230-244-252-246)*360]/ Sales revenue (line 010 f. No. 2) (27)

2.5 Cost-benefit analysis and models

Indicators of return on capital show how many rubles of profit fall on 1 ruble. advanced (own) capital. When calculating, you can use the profit of the reporting period or net profit. The effectiveness and economic feasibility of the functioning of the enterprise is measured by absolute and relative indicators, the calculation of which will be carried out on the basis of net profit (“Profit and Loss Statement”) and the data of the “Balance Sheet”:

Profitability of sales (sales) (RP) shows how much profit falls on a unit of sold products.

RP= PP/VP, (28)

where VP is sales revenue (line 010 f. No. 2)

The profitability of the production and economic activities of the organization as a whole is calculated as the ratio of profit before tax to the value of all income (RPFD):

RPFD \u003d PN / (VP + line 070 + 090 + 100 + 120 f. No. 2) (29)

The overall profitability of the reporting period (OR) reflects the final efficiency of the organization, i.e. the amount of net profit per one ruble of income received (OR):

OR \u003d PE / (VP + str. 070 + 090 + 100 + 120 f. No. 2). (thirty)

Return on equity (RCC) allows you to determine the effectiveness of the use of equity, to compare with the possible income from investing these funds in other securities.

RSK=CHP/SK, (31)

where SC is equity.

3. General assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise on the example of Kameya LLC

3.1 General characteristics of the company Kameya LLC

Kameya Limited Liability Company was established in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding as amended on April 05, 2001, in order to carry out independent economic activities and make profit. The Company is a legal entity, owns separate property recorded on its separate balance sheet, can acquire and exercise property and personal non-property rights on its own behalf, bear obligations, be a plaintiff and defendant in court. The founders of the society are citizens Novoselov Vladimir Leonidovich, Novoselova Natalya Nasimovna, Novoselov Sergey Vladimirovich, Golubeva Nadezhda Valerievna.

The authorized capital is formed at the expense of participants' contributions in the amount of 64,048 (sixty-four thousand forty-eight) rubles, and consists of the nominal value of its participants' shares.

Members have the following shares:

Novoselov V.L. RUB 20495.36 32%;

Novoselova N.N. RUB 19214.40 thirty%;

Novoselov S. V. 20495.36 rubles 32%;

Golubeva N.V. RUB 3842.88 6%.

Legal address of the company: 452680, Russia, Republic of Bashkortostan, Neftekamsk, st. Industrial, 7.

The supreme body of the company is the general meeting of participants in the company. The general meeting of the company's participants may be ordinary or extraordinary.

The management of the current activities of the company is carried out by the sole executive body of the company, accountable to the general meeting of the company's participants, represented by the General Director Novoselov V.L.

The main activity of Kameya LLC is the production and sale of garments for medical institutions. In addition to the main activity, it is planned to develop and sell new samples of garments (including the creation of design and technological documentation for the product and a prototype), wholesale and retail trade in industrial goods related to the main activity.

LLC "Kameya" consists of the parent company and the Ufa branch "Kameya plus", located in Ufa.

The structure of production and management is built on the principle of centralization and specialization of all structural units.

Kameya LLC is an enterprise with a high production potential, which is based on a technical base equipped with modern production equipment and highly qualified industrial and production personnel.

3.2 Liquidity and solvency assessment

The financial condition is characterized by a system of indicators that reflect the availability, placement and use of financial resources. This is a characteristic of the competitiveness of an enterprise, the fulfillment of obligations to the state and other enterprises. The financial condition reflects all aspects of the enterprise.

The main indicators on the basis of which the analysis of the company's activities is carried out.

1. General coverage ratio or current liquidity. This indicator allows you to evaluate how the company copes with current obligations.

This coefficient should be greater than 2, if less, then the company cannot cope with current obligations.

2. Ratio of intermediate (urgent) liquidity. It is defined. The value of this indicator should be higher than 0.5.

3. Absolute liquidity ratio.

The optimal value of this indicator ranges from 0.15 and above.

4. Ratio of own and borrowed funds.

The value of this coefficient must be at least 0.7.

5. Profitability of sales.

Table 5

Grouping by degree of diminishing liquidity and by degree of urgency

Beginning of the year

Con. of the year

IMost liquid assetsA1

IMost urgent

obligationsP1

IIQuick Selling AssetsA2

IIShort-term

liabilitiesP2

IIISlow-moving assetsА3

IIILong-term

liabilitiesP3

IV Hard-to-sell assetsA4

IV Permanent

liabilitiesP4

Table 6

The main indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise for 2007

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1.3 Methods for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise

financial property profitability solvency

There are usually four methods for predicting the financial stability of a business entity:

extrapolation;

Turnaround time method;

Budgeting method;

Method of preliminary (forecast) balances.

Extrapolation

When using the first method, it is assumed that there is a direct relationship between working capital and sales, which can be expressed using a simple coefficient (the ratio of net working capital to sales). Or using the constraint equation:

where a is a constant value of net working capital;

b - regression coefficient reflecting the degree of dependence of working capital on sales volume.

Knowing the value of these ratios and the projected sales volumes, it is possible to determine the need for net working capital (financial and operational need for working capital).

However, this method is quite simplified, since it takes into account the only factor - sales volume, while the level of need for short-term financing largely depends on the inventory turnover period, receivables and payables, etc. .

Turnaround time method

The second method for determining net working capital is based on the study of the duration of the production and commercial cycle: the inventory turnover period plus the receivables turnover period minus the accounts payable turnover period multiplied by the one-day sales turnover.

However, this method has its drawbacks, since the turnover times are not standard, but change under the influence of various factors and therefore, in turn, require forecasting and clarification.

The budgeting method is based on planning the receipt and expenditure of funds, including from the main, investment and financial activities, described in detail by OF Efimova "Financial Analysis". The calculation of deviations between receipts and payments shows the planned change in cash and creates the basis for making appropriate management decisions. Forecasting cash flows allows you to determine the amount of excess and shortage of cash in the turnover of the enterprise. The reality of forecasts of receipt and expenditure of funds depends on the degree of their uncertainty.

Method of preliminary forecast balances

One of the methods of financial forecasting is the preparation of a forecast profit and loss statement and a forecast balance sheet, most fully covered by D.A. Pankov "Accounting and Analysis in Foreign Countries". Forecast reporting can be drawn up at the end of each month, quarter, year. It will allow you to establish and evaluate the changes that will occur in the assets of the enterprise and the sources of their formation as a result of business operations for the planned period of time.

The forecast balance can be drawn up on the basis of a system of planned calculations of all indicators of production and financial activity, as well as on the basis of the dynamics of individual balance sheet items and their ratios. Great help in the development of predictive financial statements and models of the financial condition of the enterprise can be provided by computer programs for financial modeling.

Comparison of the forecast values ​​of the balance sheet items with the actual ones at the end of the reporting period will make it possible to establish what changes will occur in the financial condition of the enterprise, which will make it possible to make adjustments to its production and financial strategy.

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The analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise is carried out using a certain methodology, the content of which is to evaluate and predict certain indicators of the enterprise's activities in accordance with accounting and reporting data.

The financial condition of the enterprise should be considered from certain positions:

Evaluation of the enterprise in terms of economic content;

Determination of the influence of the system of internal and external factors on the basic indicators, as well as the identification of existing deviations;

Implementation of forecasting the state of the enterprise in the future;

Implementation of the development and preparation of solutions to improve the financial condition of the enterprise.

It is advisable to carry out analysis and assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise in two directions:

Internal analysis carried out by employees of the enterprise in accordance with the approved plan;

External analysis carried out by other users in accordance with official financial statements.

The financial condition of the enterprise will tend to improve only if it is able to develop, as well as maintain a balance in assets and liabilities.

One of the most important criteria for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise is its solvency, which is considered in two time parameters:

Long-term, defined as the ability of an enterprise to pay off its obligations in a long period of time;

Current, defined as the ability of the enterprise to pay off short-term obligations.

The analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise is carried out according to the following system: first, an express analysis of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise is carried out, and then an in-depth financial analysis.

The main purpose of express analysis of the enterprise's activities is to obtain current and reliable information about the financial condition of the organization under study.

The first stage is a preliminary (or organizational) analysis, the main purpose of which is to decide on the need for analysis of financial statements;

The second stage is a preliminary study of financial statements, the main purpose of which is to analyze the working conditions of the enterprise in the reporting period and identify the main trends in its activities;

The third stage is the economic interpretation of reporting, the main purpose of which is to summarize the characteristics of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise.

Express analysis ends with a conclusion about the feasibility of conducting an in-depth analysis of the financial condition of the organization.

The main purpose of the in-depth analysis is a detailed description of the property and financial position of the enterprise, analysis of its current financial performance, as well as forecasting these indicators for the next year. In-depth analysis complements and also significantly expands express analysis.

The methodology for analyzing the financial condition includes:

Horizontal analysis;

Vertical analysis;

trend analysis;

Analysis of financial ratios;

Comparative analysis;

Factor analysis.

Horizontal analysis is based on a comparison of each reporting position with the previous period and allows you to identify temporal trends in the development of the indicator, determine absolute and relative deviations, the rate of its growth and growth.

Vertical (structural) analysis determines the structures of the final financial indicators and reveals the impact of each position on the final indicators.

Analysis of development trends (trend analysis) allows you to compare each reporting position with a number of previous periods and determine the trend, i.e. the main trend in the dynamics of the indicator, "cleared" from random influences of individual characteristics of the change in the indicator for certain periods.

The method of financial ratios (ratio analysis) makes it possible to establish relationships between individual positions of the report or individual reporting forms. The resulting relative value characterizes the level of solvency, financial stability, degree of profitability, etc. The main purpose of using financial ratios is to identify the direction of further development of the enterprise. To do this, three methods are used: approximate expert estimates, comparisons with the results of previous years, comparisons of the results of activities with the performance of other enterprises in the same industry.

Comparative (spatial) analysis is carried out to simultaneously assess both the performance of subsidiaries, divisions, workshops (on-farm analysis), and the performance of the analyzed company in comparison with the performance of competitors, with average industry and average general economic data (inter-farm analysis).

Factor analysis allows you to take into account the influence of individual constituent factors on the formation of an effective indicator using deterministic or stochastic (probabilistic) research methods.

Financial stability-is the stability of the financial position of the enterprise, provided by a sufficient share of equity capital as part of the funding sources. A sufficient share of equity capital means that borrowed sources of financing are used by the enterprise only to the extent that it can ensure their full and timely return. From this point of view, short-term liabilities should not exceed the value of liquid assets in amount. In this case, liquid assets are not all current assets that can be quickly turned into money without significant loss in value compared to the balance sheet, but only a part of them. Liquid assets include stocks and work in progress. Their conversion into money is possible, but it will disrupt the smooth operation of the enterprise. We are talking only about those liquid assets, the transformation of which into money is a natural stage of their movement. In addition to the cash and financial investments themselves, this includes accounts receivable and stocks of finished products intended for sale.

A generalizing indicator that characterizes the financial stability of an enterprise is the surplus or lack of sources for the formation of reserves and costs.

When assessing financial stability, the absolute indicators are those indicators that characterize the state of reserves and the availability of their sources of formation.

Own working capital, also referred to as own working capital, are calculated using the following formula:

SOS = Equity - Long-term liabilities (1.1)

where SOS - own working capital.

Relative indicators of financial stability are an indicator of the degree of protection of the interests of investors and banks, the calculation of which is based on the cost of the sources of the enterprise's functioning.

The company's management is interested in optimizing equity capital, as well as in reducing the amount of borrowed sources of financing.

The financial stability of the organization is characterized by the state of its own and borrowed sources of financing and is analyzed using the methods of financial ratios presented in table 1.1.

solvency profitability forecasting reporting

Table 1.1 - Characteristics of the main indicators of financial stability

Name

Calculation formula

Characteristics, standard

Coefficient of autonomy (financial independence)

Autonomies=SC/WB

It characterizes the share of equity capital in the balance sheet, the recommended value of this ratio is above 0.5.

Financial stability ratio

Kfu = (SC + Long-term loans and credits) / WB

Shows what part of the asset is financed from sustainable sources, that is, the proportion of those sources of funding that the organization can use in its activities for a long time. The recommended value of this coefficient is not less than 0.75.

Financial dependency ratio

Kfz=ZK/SK

The ratio between own and borrowed sources of financing. Recommended value - not higher than 0.67

The coefficient of security of current assets with own funds (KOSS)

Koss \u003d (SK - Non-current assets) / current assets

Shows the sufficiency of the organization's own funds to finance current activities. Recommended value - 0.1

Investment ratio

Kinv \u003d SK / Non-current assets

shows how own sources cover the investments made and is equal to the ratio of the company's own funds to fixed capital. Recommended value - more than 1

Agility factor

Km = SOS/SK

The share of SOS in the total cost of equity, the recommended value is from 0.2 to 0.5

Funding ratio

Kfin \u003d SK / ZK

Shows to what extent the assets of the enterprise are formed at the expense of equity capital, and to what extent the enterprise is independent of external sources of financing. The recommended value is greater than 1.

In the analysis of the financial condition, the solvency of an organization reflects its ability to fully and timely fulfill financial obligations, and also affects the conditions and forms of financial transactions, in particular, the possibility of obtaining a loan or loan.

Allocate the liquidity of the balance sheet and the liquidity of the organization.

The liquidity of the balance sheet is the degree to which the organization's debt obligations are covered by its assets, the period of conversion of which into cash corresponds to the maturity of payment obligations. The liquidity of the balance sheet involves finding means of payment only from internal sources (realization of assets). The liquidity of the balance sheet is established on the basis of a comparison of the results of groups of assets by the degree of liquidity and liabilities by sources of repayment.

The liquidity of the organization is a more general concept than the liquidity of the balance sheet. The concepts of solvency and liquidity are very close, but the second is more capacious. The solvency of the organization depends on the degree of liquidity of the balance sheet and the organization. At the same time, liquidity characterizes both the current state of settlements and the future. An entity may be solvent at the reporting date but have adverse future opportunities, and vice versa.

Analysis of the liquidity of the balance sheet consists in comparing the amount of funds for an asset, grouped by the degree of their liquidity, with the amount of liabilities for a liability, grouped by maturity.

Liabilities of the balance according to the degree of urgency of their repayment are divided into 4 groups:

П1: the most urgent liabilities (accounts payable;

P2: term liabilities (short-term credits and loans);

P3: long-term liabilities (long-term liabilities);

P4: permanent liabilities (equity).

The assets of the balance according to the degree of liquidity are also divided into 4 groups:

A1: absolutely liquid assets (cash and short-term financial investments);

A2: marketable assets (accounts receivable within 12 months);

A3: medium-sold assets (stocks, long-term accounts receivable, other current assets);

A4: hard-to-sell assets (non-current assets).

To determine the liquidity of the balance sheet, the results of the above groups for assets and liabilities are compared.

The balance is considered absolutely liquid if the following ratios are met:

A1? P1; A2? P2; A3? P3; A4<П4.

After studying the methodology for calculating liquidity and financial stability indicators, one should also analyze the business activity and profitability ratios.

The business activity of the enterprise in the financial aspect is manifested in the rate of turnover of funds, which affects the amount of the annual revenue of the enterprise, the amount of semi-fixed costs, the solvency of the enterprise. The following factors influence the duration of the company's funds in circulation:

Internal (the effectiveness of the asset management strategy, the pricing policy of the enterprise, methods for assessing inventory and stocks of the enterprise);

External (industry affiliation of the organization, scope of activities, inflation rate, nature of economic relations with partners).

Indicators of business activity of the enterprise can be divided into two groups.

1. General indicators of asset turnover:

The ratio of the total capital turnover (resource return) - reflects the rate of turnover of the total capital of the enterprise:

Resource return \u003d Sales proceeds / Amount of assets (1.2)

The turnover ratio of working capital - characterizes the speed of turnover of all working capital of the enterprise:

Working capital turnover ratio \u003d Sales proceeds / Amount of current assets (1.3)

2. Asset management indicators:

The return coefficient of intangible assets - reflects the effectiveness of the use of intangible assets:

Return on intangible assets = Sales proceeds / Amount of intangible assets (1.4)

Return on assets - shows the effectiveness of the use of fixed assets in the enterprise:

Return on assets \u003d Sales proceeds / Amount of fixed assets (1.5)

In the process of analyzing the business activity of an enterprise, special attention should be paid to the duration of the production cycle and its components.

Profitability is determined by cost and profit. The absolute amount of profit characterizes the economic effect, but not the efficiency of the enterprise. The generalizing indicators of the enterprise's activity are profitability indicators.

1. Profitability of sales:

Return on sales = (Non-current assets / Sales proceeds) * 100% (1.6)

Profitability of sales characterizes how much profit falls on the ruble of sold products.

2. Return on equity:

Return on equity = (Intangible assets / Equity) * 100% (1.7)

This type of profitability characterizes the effectiveness of the use of equity capital.

3. Return on assets:

Return on assets \u003d (Non-current assets / Assets) * 100% (1.8)

4. ROI:

Return on investment = (Non-current assets / (Equity + Long-term liabilities)) * 100% (1.9)

Return on assets depends on the rate of return on sales.

The financial processes of the organization are quite diverse, and this diversity is not always determined in terms of solvency ratios. Given the above fact, most foreign and Russian economists and analysts recommend a comprehensive or integral diagnosis of the financial condition of the enterprise.