Avdoshina Zoya Alexandrovna Senior Lecturer, Department of Sociology, Political Science and Management, Kazan State Technical University, Associate Professor, Department of Management, Russian International Academy of Tourism (Kazan Branch)

1. Concept, development process and features of management decisions

1.1. The concept and process of developing a management decision

A managerial decision is a natural result of the manager's activity and is implemented in the form of a directive purposeful impact on the object of management.

Management decision- an act of purposeful change in the situation, solving a problem, a variant of influencing the system and the processes occurring in it. Management decisions involve management actions that lead to the resolution of the contradiction and change the situation. Any decision is based on the analysis of data characterizing the situation, the definition of goals and objectives, and contains a program, an algorithm of actions for the implementation of measures. Management decisions are actually the main result of the activities of managers at any level of the hierarchical ladder. So, for example, heads of organizations and leading top managers can decide to expand the organization, enter new markets, change the direction of the organization's financial flows. These are the most complex strategic decisions, which are made with a great deal of caution and include the analysis of a number of factors, modeling various scenarios for the development of the situation, forecasting accurate quantitative results: profit, gross proceeds from sales, market share, market development rates, etc. In the decision-making process of this level, it is required to plan activities that may include changing the structure, assortment policy, type of activity of the organization. Decisions can be made at the level of the director, head of a workshop or department, foreman.

Depending on the level of management, the degree of responsibility and the consequences of the decisions taken change. So, some managers have the authority to make decisions on financial, personnel issues, problems of product quality (services). For example, the head of an organization may decide to purchase new equipment, change the wage system, and ensure quality. The head of the sales department makes decisions on concluding sales contracts, conducting promotions within the allocated budget, etc.

In the process of developing solutions, managers analyze information, communicate with heads of other levels of management, with direct executors of events, customers, think over scenarios for the development of the situation, hold business meetings, and choose the best alternative.

Acceptance process management decisions consists of a number of successive stages (See: Fig. 1.).

At the first stage, a problem arises that must be resolved in a timely manner, otherwise a situation of imbalance in the system may arise. Thus, a decrease in the competitiveness of an organization in the market will lead to a decrease in demand for its goods or services. In the future, this may mean a loss of profit, and even the emergence of a situation of insolvency of the organization, actual bankruptcy.

In an environment where an organization is thriving, profitable, decisions are required, such as expanding operations, buying a business in another area, diversifying, investing in capital construction, etc. Such decisions require thoughtful actions of managers, accurate diagnosing of the state of the system.

We pass to the 2nd stage of making a managerial decision. In this case, the manager is faced with the need to analyze documents: financial reporting, sales dynamics, contracts, data on the advantages of competing firms.

Rice. 1. Stages of the decision-making process

The manager studies communication channels and information coming to him from various sources: from employees of the organization, customers, competitors; sees himself in this information field, watches people who can help him make the right effective decision.

At the third stage, the managerial decision is made individually by the leader or jointly with the group, for example, at a business meeting. Also, the leader can use the opinion of competent specialists, experts in the chosen field of activity, to make a decision. Can discuss the issue with them, get their informed opinion, and then decide on the next steps. Thus, financial or marketing audit(assessment) of activities that can help the manager make the best decision with the least loss to the organization.

And, finally, stage 4 involves making a decision, which is recorded in administrative documents: orders, instructions, terms of reference, different kind plans and is also reflected in regulatory sources, enterprise standards, general provisions, charter, internal regulations and rules of the organization. It is important not only to make a timely decision, but also to control the implementation of activities carried out in accordance with the adopted official documents, to motivate the personnel involved in the implementation of these activities.

Let's designate the basic concepts connected with acceptance of the administrative decision.

Control- targeted impact on the system and processes that are designed to unite the efforts of employees to achieve specific goals of the organization.

Management process— a set of time-sequential operations, activities that make up the impact of the control system on the control object (organization).

Control system- a set of interrelated elements, a method of implementing control technology, involving the impact on the object in order to change its state and process characteristics.

Management Goal- an ideal image of the desired, necessary and possible state of the system, determined by a number of quantitative and qualitative indicators.

Situation- the state of the controlled system, estimated relative to the goal or the initial, given parameters.

Problem- a contradiction, a mismatch in the system, which can bring it out of equilibrium and threaten its viability in the environment.

Information- a reflection in the mind of a person of the reality surrounding him, a set of information about the state of the controlled system.

Organization of the development of a management decision- streamlining the activities of individual departments and individual employees in the process of developing a solution. The organization is carried out through regulations, standards, organizational requirements, instructions, delegation of rights and responsibilities.

Management decision development technology- a variant of the sequence of operations for developing a solution, selected according to the criteria for the rationality of their implementation, the use of special equipment, equipment, personnel qualifications, conditions for the implementation of measures.

Management decision methodology— logical organization of activities for the development of management decisions. It includes the formulation of the management goal, the choice of methods for developing solutions, criteria for evaluating options, drawing up an algorithm for performing decision development operations. The general methodological approaches used to analyze the methodology of a managerial decision can be considered: rationalistic, behavioral, systemic, situational, process, cybernetic, and synergetic.

The process of making a managerial decision consists of successive stages, such as: the emergence of a problem, the diagnosis of the state of processes in an organization, the development of a solution, and control over the implementation of planned activities. All these stages are necessary steps on the way to effective management. Managers are required not only to know management theory, but also to master the methods: information analysis, organization of work in a group to make joint decisions with colleagues.

Methods for developing management decisions- these are the methods and techniques for performing the operations necessary in the process of their adoption. These include ways of analyzing, processing information, choosing options for action, etc.

Any organization, starting from the moment of its inception, faces a number of problems that can provoke a dangerous situation, accompanied by a sharp deterioration in performance indicators: liquidity, solvency, profitability, working capital turnover, financial stability. Market forms of management in conditions of fierce competition lead to the insolvency of individual business entities or their temporary insolvency. The problem provides information, "the key to thinking." It is required to make a decision that can change the situation, improve the state of the organization.

Management theory has a well-established set of concepts, categories and methods for a comprehensive assessment of production and economic activities, effective organization of the decision-making process at all levels of management. System analysis allows you to identify the feasibility of creating or improving an organization, determine which class of complexity it belongs to, and identify the most effective methods of scientific organization of labor. In order to identify the causes of deterioration in the parameters of the organization's activities, problems are diagnosed.

Management Diagnostics- this is a set of methods aimed at identifying problems, weak "bottlenecks" in the management system, which are the causes of the unfavorable state of processes in the organization. Diagnostics can be understood as an assessment of the company's activities in terms of obtaining a general managerial effect and determining the deviations of the existing system parameters from the originally set ones, assessing the organization's functioning in a mobile, changing external environment.

Management decisions should be developed by managers at the scientific level of management, using the whole range of methods of analysis, diagnostics, planning, modeling and forecasting. An effective manager is a competent specialist who knows how to make decisions in a timely manner, direct and motivate staff for their implementation, plan the resource base, implement effective behavior models, and choose an adequate leadership style.

1.2. Types of management decisions: criteria, advantages and disadvantages

In the practice of organizations, a huge number of decisions are made daily. There was a breakdown of office equipment. The head of the department decides on the repair. Increased staff turnover. The head of the personnel development department decides to introduce a new employee support system, including social package and flexible reward system. A new competitor has appeared and the head of the marketing service is forced to adjust the pricing policy. There are many such examples. There are several types of decisions in control theory.

1) Typology according to the degree of participation of managers of different levels and specialists:

• collegiate (expert and as agreed);
• collective (democratic);
• individual (solitary).

Collegial decision is a decision made by a group of managers and specialists.

As a rule, decisions are made by the head of the organization in agreement with the leading top managers and specialists, collectively. This is what happens in most companies. The head delegates parallel powers or uses the method of mandatory approval, which is written in the administrative documents: as “agreed”. With mandatory approvals, the responsibility for making significant decisions is partially assigned to the managers who assume such powers. Parallel powers increase the responsibility and rights of managers, and the decision becomes collective. For example, many companies use parallel powers to control financial expenditures, and large purchases require two or three executive signatures.

Collegiate decisions are usually made at business meetings and during the work of commissions by leading managers and specialists. At such meetings, there is already a known balance of power, which significantly affects the result of management, the decision. Thus, the alignment of forces may be such that one or two leaders may have priority in making a decision, although formally the decision is made collectively. This is a lack of collegial decisions. Therefore, leaders turn to experts who can help them make important decisions. Such decisions are made if a group of specialists is involved: external auditors or employees of the headquarters of the organization. For example, to resolve a contentious issue, the manager may involve a legal service, and to develop a strategic plan, use the services of a group of analysts. An expert commission may be formed with the involvement of external experts in the field of quality or financial audit.

Modern management theory offers methods and techniques that a leader can use to optimize the work of a small group and increase the effectiveness of decisions made.

Collective (democratic) decisions- these are decisions made by the majority of the employees of the organization, jointly by the labor collective or a small group. Unlike collegial decisions, democratic decisions are a vivid expression of the will of the majority of members of the labor collective, small or large. Such decisions are made in the course of a secret ballot, using methods of expert assessments, for example, nominal group technology, Japanese ringi techniques. The use of such methods is possible with a high level of staff motivation, the use of a democratic leadership style, the development and transparency of the corporate culture.

Collective decisions are also made when significant problems and issues affecting all personnel are raised. For example, the election of a manager through a competition, the introduction of a new wage system, etc.

Individual management solutions These are decisions that are made by the leader alone. In small business organizations, a small number of management levels, a high degree of risk of losing competitive status. Such an organization is led by an entrepreneur who bears full responsibility for its further functioning in unstable market conditions. The entrepreneur is afraid to delegate authority on financial and other significant issues to his subordinates and makes decisions on his own. The positive aspect of an individual solution is its creative, extraordinary character.

The shortcomings of individual decisions become apparent when they acquire an authoritarian character. The head usurps power, single-handedly manages resources, determines the personnel policy of the organization and puts pressure on subordinates. Decisions made by the leader alone allow the organization to remain in the market for some time and be successful. However, in the future, the leadership style used by the leader slows down the development of the organization. The leader must be able to maneuver and be flexible, use the art of delegating decision-making authority to other people in the organization.

2) Typology by levels of planning and time of implementation of activities

• strategic
• tactical
• operational

Strategic Management Decisions- These are decisions that are made at the highest level of management for the long-term development of the organization. Such decisions are followed by the development of: a strategic plan, an organization's production program. Strategic decisions involve fundamental reorganizations in the organization: changing the direction of financial flows to product groups or target segments, transforming the structure, entering new regional markets, expanding or reducing activities, changing the assortment policy. Strategic management decisions are made at the level of directors, vice presidents of the company, deputy. directors, heads of production departments and workshops. In a small business, all responsibility for making strategic decisions is concentrated in the hands of the manager and his team.

Tactical Management Decisions- these are decisions that are made at the highest and middle levels of management for a year or a quarter and include the activities necessary for the implementation of annual or quarterly plans: sales, production or provision of services. Tactical goals specify the strategic goal and, accordingly, tactical decisions are necessary to achieve this goal. Tactical decisions may be related to thinking through new models of behavior in the market, changing pricing policy, organizing promotions, optimizing the work of professional teams, etc. Purchasing new equipment, introducing a system of discounts and benefits for profitable customers, introducing a system of bonuses and bonuses for the results achieved by staff, changing the pricing principle are examples of tactical decisions.

Operational management decisions- decisions made in the middle and lower echelons of management related to the organization of the work of direct executors, providing them with resources, materials, information. Procurement of materials, repair of office equipment, dispatch of workers to specific areas to perform terms of reference, concluding contracts with consumers are examples of operational management decisions. Such decisions are made in the process of daily, hard work of the labor collective and require regular monitoring by the manager.

3) Typology according to the content of the management process

• social
• economic
• organizational
• technical.

Content typology, in contrast to those discussed above, reflects the essential characteristics of management decisions that have a certain focus and are associated with various aspects of activity. So, economic decisions associated with the management system, necessary for the growth of the economic efficiency of the organization, profitability, payback and liquidity of assets. How best to manage resources, make the enterprise profitable, increase profits - these and other questions will face the manager who makes economic decisions.

Social Solutions are decisions that affect the social structure of the organization, personnel, corporate culture, climate and shared values. Social decisions can be related to the optimization of the work of personnel, improvement of the system of motivation and social support for employees, the image of the organization in society, and the implementation of the mission. Raising wages, introducing environmentally friendly equipment, improving sanitation, strengthening safety requirements, resolving conflict are examples of socially responsible decisions.

Organizational decisions- these are decisions related to management methods, ways to achieve goals. Organize workers to complete a task, redistribute functions and powers, hold a general meeting - these are examples of organizational decisions. Such decisions are an integral part of the management process.

Technical solutions- these are operational decisions that are necessary to ensure labor, production processes, supply with the necessary resources, materials, information. Install software in a department, replace a broken machine, pay travel expenses, send a worker to an important production site are examples of technical solutions.

So, management decisions are different in content, time parameters, planning levels, but all of them are an integral part of the management process. The effect of their implementation directly depends on the manager's ability to predict the situation, to foresee the consequences of decisions made, the ability to use not only their own potential, but, above all, the capabilities of the group and the team as a whole.

2. Human factor in making managerial decisions

2.1. The role of the manager in the process of developing managerial decisions

The human factor suggests that a person plays a key role in the complex process of developing managerial decisions. This is a leader, and a leading specialist, and an ordinary performer. The quality of decisions and the effectiveness of joint activities depend on the coordinated work of all employees.

The human factor in managerial decision-making includes:

1) Skillful delegation of authority.

2) Implementation of communications, availability feedback with staff and consumers.

3) Behavioral features of leaders, organizational culture.

4) Leadership style, attitude towards hired personnel and organization of joint work in order to develop management decisions.

5) Methods personnel work and a personnel management system.

6) Timely prevention of conflicts.

Delegation of authority, feedback from the staff, the manager's behavior model, attitude towards employees, communication style with the consumer, climate, organization culture, all these are factors of interaction between a person and processes in an organization. Particular importance is attached to the ability of managers, leaders to organize staff, to involve him in the process of developing solutions. Collegiate and collective decisions are more effective than individual ones, so the leader must skillfully direct the staff to achieve the goals of the organization and delegate authority to solve problems.

Delegation of powers- this is the transfer of rights and responsibilities from a higher manager to a lower one, from a line manager to a head of a headquarters structure, from a manager directly to a subordinate.

Skillful delegation of authority is an integral part of the process of making collective management decisions. If the manager does not delegate authority, then managerial decisions are made by him alone.

The classic management literature deals with Difficulties faced by leaders in delegating authority. Thus, Newman gives five reasons for the reluctance of leaders to delegate authority:

1) Misconception leader "I'll do it better." But if the manager does not allow subordinates to perform new tasks with additional powers, then they will not improve their skills.

2) Managers become so immersed in day-to-day work that they neglect the larger picture of activity. Unable to capture the long-term perspective of a series of jobs, they fail to fully grasp the significance of the distribution of work among subordinates.

3) Lack of trust in subordinates. If managers act as if they don't trust their subordinates, then the subordinates will actually work accordingly. They will lose initiative and feel the need to frequently ask if they are doing the right thing.

4) Fear of risk. Since managers are responsible for the work of a subordinate, they may be concerned that delegating a task may create problems for which they will have to be responsible.

5) Ineffective control mechanisms. Management will have reason to be concerned about delegating additional authority to subordinates.

Subordinates avoid responsibility and block the delegation process for six main reasons:

1) The subordinate finds it more convenient to ask the boss what to do than to solve the problem himself.

2) The subordinate is afraid of criticism for the mistakes made. Since greater responsibility increases the possibility of making a mistake, the subordinate avoids it.

3) The subordinate lacks the information and resources necessary to successfully complete the task.

4) The subordinate already more work than he can do, or he thinks he really is.

5) The subordinate lacks self-confidence.

6) The subordinate is not offered any positive incentives for additional responsibility.

The reasons for the unwillingness to delegate authority or, on the contrary, to take responsibility for oneself, lie in the peculiarities of the psychology of the personality of employees. Significant are: emotional interaction between members of the labor collective, behavioral models and forms of control over the execution of decisions chosen by managers, feedback from subordinates, motivation of employees to participate in the process of developing responsible decisions.

Only the leaders themselves can make the process of delegating authority and developing joint management decisions effective. The leader directs, stimulates, organizes, determines policy, forms the culture of the organization.

Behavioral features of leaders influence the style of their leadership, the chosen forms and methods of making managerial decisions.

Rice. 2. The personnel management system of a modern organization

Behavioral features of leaders include:

1) Methods of evaluation and control used by the manager.

2) Responding to the emergence of problems or critical situations in the organization.

3) An implemented role model that encourages employees to imitate.

4) Criteria for the allocation of organization resources.

5) Criteria by which the manager determines the level of remuneration and the status of the employee

6) The criteria that the manager uses when hiring, selecting, promoting, transferring and firing employees.

The leader's behavior model is fixed in the minds of subordinates through informal communication channels. Everyday information coming from the leader is actions, stories, jargon, symbols, symbolic actions. This is the main mechanism for fixing the foundations of culture.

The formation of culture by leaders occurs through informal channels of communication. But the leader acts formally, using managerial methods of working with personnel.

The personnel management system (See: Fig. 2.) should be formed in such a way that employees have the opportunity to learn, receive an objective assessment of their activities, move up the career ladder, have social guarantees and motivation to participate in important decision-making. What matters is personnel policy, the socio-psychological climate in the team, culture, the ability to realize democratic style guides.

In the management literature, there are mainly three main leadership styles that strongly influence the forms of managerial decision-making: authoritarian, liberal and democratic.

Authoritarian leadership style characterized by rigid centralization, the process of developing management decisions from one control center, pressure on subordinates, the use of manipulative strategies to influence personnel. This style is chosen by the leadership of highly bureaucratic structures or small business organizations with a significant concentration of power in the hands of one person - the entrepreneur.

Democratic leadership style characterized by a high degree of participation of the workforce or managers of middle, lower levels of management in making strategically important decisions. In the first case, we are talking about collective decisions, and in the second, collegial ones. The democratic style is used in decentralized organizations in which management is carried out by goals and results. Such organizations are characterized by: flexible, adaptive structures, high motivation and competence of the staff.

Liberal leadership style is characterized by a certain level of opportunities for employees to participate in managerial decision-making. However, the situation in the team can develop in different ways, sometimes unpredictably. A leader who uses a liberal style may withdraw from management. In this case, the organization is managed by representatives of the "elite core", which receives unlimited access to power and resources. Possible collisions between various groups, a sharp increase in conflicts in the team.

Leadership styles have a significant impact on the process of developing a management decision: the chosen forms of control, management methods (See: table 1.). Leadership styles are closely related to the structural construction of the organization, the general management system.

Studying the human factor in the development of managerial decisions, we note that the decisive role in this complex process belongs to the manager. Requirements to professional competence manager include not only the necessary knowledge and skills, but also certain human properties of him as a person.

2.2. Social aspects of the development of management decisions in tourism organizations

The development of management decisions in tourism organizations has a certain specificity. The art of communication and action according to the situation are especially in demand here. Tourism organizations will experience an acute shortage of workers, qualified specialists in the field of tourism management and hotel business.

Concluding an agreement with a well-known tour operator, preparing a package of documents for a tourist, buying furniture and equipment, sending employees on a study tour, increasing advertising costs, creating your own website - all this examples of management decision-making in tourism. This area of ​​activity requires special knowledge and skills from managers.

Requirements for the professional competence of managers in the field of tourism suggest:

1) Possession of the technology of sales of a tourist product.

2) Business communication skills and knowledge of customer psychology.

3) Knowledge of the basics of regional studies and the main directions of tourism.

4) Ability to work with documents and databases.

5) Knowledge of the legal framework for tourism activities.

6) Fluency in Internet technologies, sales and booking skills online.

7) Use of positive behavior patterns.

Let us recall the basic concepts of tourism management that appear in legislative acts.

Tourism- temporary departures (travel) of citizens Russian Federation, foreign citizens and stateless persons (hereinafter referred to as citizens) from a permanent place of residence for recreational, educational, professional, business, sports, religious and other purposes without engaging in paid activities in the country (place) of temporary residence;

Tourist activity– tour operator and travel agency activities, as well as other travel organization activities;

Tourist- a citizen visiting the country (place) of temporary residence for health-improving, educational, professional, business, sports, religious and other purposes without engaging in paid activities for a period of 24 hours to 6 months in a row or spending at least one overnight stay;

tourism industry- a set of hotels and other accommodation facilities, means of transport, catering facilities, entertainment facilities and facilities, educational, business, recreational, sports and other facilities, organizations engaged in tour operator and travel agency activities, as well as organizations providing excursion services and guide services - translators;

Tourist product– the right to a tour intended for sale to a tourist;

Tour operator activity- activities for the formation, promotion and sale of a tourist product, carried out on the basis of a license by a legal entity or an individual entrepreneur (hereinafter referred to as the tour operator);

Travel agency activity- activities to promote and sell a tourist product, carried out on the basis of a license by a legal entity or an individual entrepreneur (hereinafter referred to as a travel agent);

tourist voucher– a document confirming the transfer of the tourist product;

Tourist voucher- a document establishing the right of the tourist to the services included in the tour, and confirming the fact of their provision.

Note that travel agencies are, as a rule, small organizations with a limited staff. The success of such an organization depends on the ability of managers to respond in a timely manner to customer requests and the market situation.

Large tour operators promote tourism products to regional markets. They should care about the quality of tours and service.

Decisions that are made in tourism organizations depend on the type of tourism activity (tour operator, travel agency, etc.)

Management decisions made in the tour operator organization:

• conclusion of agreements with regional representatives;
• material support of the organization,
• conducting advertising campaigns and promotions;
• conclusion of contracts with individual clients;
• development of new directions of tourism activity;
• entering new markets;
• conclusion of contracts with foreign partners;
• creation of a reserve fund;
• creation of an electronic sales system and its improvement;
• creation of conditions for ensuring the safety of tourists, etc.

Management decisions made in a travel agency organization:

• conclusion of agreements with tour operators, owners of well-known brands,
• registration of a package of documents for a tourist;
• financial support of the company, design of premises and supply of office equipment;
• sending employees to training;
• creation of the organization's website and promotion to the market;
• use of the electronic booking system;
• organization effective system work with clients (by phone and at a meeting);
• solution of unforeseen situations and problems.

A manager in the tourism business spends most of his time on communication and communication with the consumer, therefore, special attention should be paid to creating an adequate corporate culture with a high management context.

Culture is a set of traditions, norms, values, meanings, ideas, sign systems that are characteristic of a social community.

Organization culture, according to the definition of E. Shane, is a set of collective basic ideas acquired by a group in resolving the problems of adaptation to changes in the external environment and internal integration.

The constituent elements of organizational culture are:

• observed behavioral stereotypes in the interaction of people (language, customs, traditions);
• group norms (values, standards inherent in working groups);
• proclaimed values ​​(the principles and values ​​declared publicly to which the organization aspires);
• formal philosophy (general and ideological principles that will determine the actions of the group in relation to shareholders, employees, customers, intermediaries);
• rules of the game (rules of behavior at work, restrictions that a beginner needs to learn);
• climate (feelings determined by the physical composition of the group and the manner in which members interact);
• existing practical experience (methods and techniques that do not require written fixation);
• mindset and mental models (systems that determine perception, thinking and language, transmitted to group members at the stage of socialization);
• accepted meanings (instant understanding that occurs during communication);
• basic metaphors (ideas, feelings and images developed by the group for self-determination, are embodied in buildings, office structure and other material aspects, reflect the emotional and aesthetic reactions of group members).

Culture has properties universality, informality and stability. It covers all aspects of activity and is associated with traditions that repeat over a number of years.

Culture performs features: adaptation, internal integration, coordination of staff behavior, optimization of employee motivation and profiling the image of the organization.

Culture of tourism organizations characterized by a pronounced focus on consumer needs and includes:

1) A special culture of communication with customers (understanding, informativeness, decency)

2) Traditions and atmosphere of travel and recreation

3) Group norms of joint, conflict-free effective activity

4) Philosophy to meet the comprehensive needs of customers

5) Favorable socio-psychological climate

6) Skillful operational skills in working with office equipment and databases

7) Basic metaphors embodied in the design of the office, the design of the premises, focused on potential tourists (comfortable furniture, modern office equipment, travel souvenirs, booklets and magazines informing about holiday destinations, etc.)

8) Openness to the world and other cultures.

Social Aspects of Management Decision Making in the Tourist Business can be characterized as follows.

1) High demands are placed on the competence of managers, the growth of their initiative and responsibility

2) The role of communications is growing, it is necessary to have feedback from consumers

3) The behavioral characteristics of managers and organizational culture are characterized by a focus on consumers

4) Democratic style of leadership prevails, conflict-free and joint problem solving

5) HR methods are focused on continuous training and development of personnel

6) Achieving efficiency is possible subject to the creation of a special culture of the organization

So, the development of management decisions in tourism is an initiative, creative work, an innovative approach to work, goodwill and activity according to the situation.

3. Organization of the process of developing management decisions and monitoring the implementation of measures

3.1. Methods for developing management decisions

To make informed decisions, it is necessary to rely on the experience, knowledge and intuition of specialists. Collegiate and group decisions have significant advantages over individual decisions. Therefore, in management, considerable attention is paid to the issues of working in a group, a team, as well as ways to develop joint solutions. In this case, the managers and specialists involved in the development of solutions can be considered as experts on the chosen problem. Methods of expert assessments involve organizing work with specialists, processing their opinions, expressed in quantitative and qualitative form, in order to prepare information for decision-making.

Rice. 3. An example of a causal tree for a tourism organization

Expert methods for developing management decisions- these are methods based on the analysis and averaging in various ways of opinions, judgments of expert experts on the issues under consideration. Often accompanied by the creation of special working groups of specialists, an expert commission. Managers who are responsible for making important decisions and are quite competent specialists can act as experts.

Methods of expert assessments: Delphi, round table, brainstorming, scenario method, weighted average method, business game, Japanese "ringi" method.

Delphi- one of the methods of expert forecasting, based on a consistent assessment by specialists of any proposed alternatives. It can be applied in the process of group decision making by choosing the best alternative. The results of expert assessments are entered in a table (See: table 5).

Consider how you can apply the Delphi method to make a management decision in a travel agency.

Let's say that a tourism organization has a problem of reducing its competitive status against the background of the emergence of new competitors with significant advantages (a well-known brand, low prices).

Purpose: to develop an optimal management decision through a group session and the use of expert assessment techniques.

Stage 1. The problem is discussed in a group of specialists, a causal relationship tree (problem tree) is built (See: Fig. 3)

Stage 2. Using the brainstorming method, 5-8 alternatives are determined, which are ways to solve the problem under consideration.

Stage 3. Based on the Delphi table (See Table 2), the most weighty alternatives are determined.

Method of weighted average criteria is effective for experts to evaluate a number of alternatives and options for loosely structured solutions.

A system of weighted criteria can be applied to evaluate product suppliers. At the first stage, the experts directly assess the selection criteria. Suppose the price for tour packages, bonuses for supply volumes, etc. All criteria are "weighted" in relation to the main criterion (See: Table 3). According to the selected weighted criteria, all possible solutions are evaluated. Suppose there are four tour operator firms: A, B, C, D. In fact, there can be much more of them. At this stage, a comparative assessment of each firm is made for each criterion (See: Table 4).

At the last stage, the total weighting of the options is determined taking into account the different "weight" category of each criterion, i.e. the weights of the selection criteria are multiplied by the weighted options for each row (See: Table 3). The total weighted assessment shows the most adequate assessment of firms that supply tourism products.

Management decision modeling- this is the development of a solution in an abstract form, suggesting the possibility of change, operating with a large number of variables, analyzing the scenarios and situations associated with this solution. The main goal of management decision modeling is to choose the best option, taking into account the predictability of the situation. The advantage of managerial decision modeling as a method is that the manager can use all his potential: intelligence, intuition, management skills, rational foresight.

Functional-decompositional representation of the system in the form of an aggregate complements mathematical modeling methods. The general representation of the system is most conveniently used in the form of a mathematical model, for example, in the form of service loops or a vector model (See: Fig. 4).

Rice. 4. Representation of the system as an aggregate

The methods for developing management decisions discussed above make it possible to increase management efficiency, because in this case, a number of factors affecting the development of the organization are analyzed. Factors or conditions that may not be noticed by a single leader if he makes a decision, when using group and expert methods, are analyzed in a comprehensive, systematic way. Group forms of solution development are more efficient and reliable than individual methods.

4.2. Efficiency, control and quality of management decisions

Efficiency of management decisions- this is 1) a set of indicators indicating the achievement of the goals of the organization, obtaining certain results in its activities; 2) the main result of the activities of managers to transform the management system and processes taking place in the organization.

The effectiveness of management decisions is determined by three main groups of performance indicators of the organization:

1) Indicators of economic efficiency:

• profit;
• revenues from sales;
• profitability;
• cost price;
• profitability;
• liquidity;
• management costs.

• the quality of the product or service;
• labor productivity;
• the ratio of growth rates of labor productivity and wages;
• payroll fund (PHOT);
• average salary;
• loss of working time per 1 employee (man-days);
• quality of personnel work (points or %).

• staff turnover (the ratio of the number of dismissed employees to the total number of staff),
• level labor discipline(the ratio of the number of cases of violation of labor and performance discipline to the total number of personnel),
• the ratio of management personnel, workers and employees,
• uniform workload of staff,
• labor participation rate (KTU) or contribution (KTV)
• socio-psychological climate in the team.

The quality of the management decision- a set of properties that a management decision has that meet, to one degree or another, the needs of a successful solution to the problem (timeliness, targeting, specificity, and other properties) (See: Fig. 5.)

Management decisions must be reliable, timely, purposeful, planned, effective.

Control over the execution of management decisions is a set of procedures and management techniques that are used to fix and adjust the activities performed.

Methods of control over the execution of management decisions.

1) Fixing the results of the activities carried out.

2) Analysis of reporting documentation.

3) Conversations and business meetings.

4) Correction of plans.

5) Analysis of performance indicators of departments, services, organization as a whole.

6) Motivation for participation in the development of solutions.

Rice. 5. Conditions and factors that determine the quality of management decisions

Control is an important component of the process of developing management decisions, it affects labor productivity, quality of products (services) and the effectiveness of decisions.

IN modern theory Techniques and methods are used to identify the causes of quality deterioration, to detect causal relationships between a number of factors.

Ishikawa Cause and Effect Diagram is an expert method that first appeared in Japan and is used to identify the causes of process failures in the event that obvious violations are difficult to detect. Let's consider a cause-and-effect diagram on the example of a tourist organization (See: Fig. 6).

In tourism organizations, one often has to deal with hidden, not always obvious facts that worsen the quality of services.

For example, often in organizations, the manner of communication with the consumer does not meet the high standards of international service. Possible: inattention or, on the contrary, excessive pressure on the client. There may be inflexibility in communication. In travel companies, the problems of insufficient awareness of customers, non-fulfillment of conditions contractual relations, safety of tourists, etc.

In this scheme, it is necessary to find causal relationships between the main indicator (the quality of services of the tourist organization), the main groups of factors of influence and the reasons for the decline in quality separately in each group. So, in the course of sequential analysis, we can discover hidden causes that negatively affect quality.

The weight of each indicator is calculated by expert way, i.e. it is determined how important this factor is for ensuring the quality of services of a tourist organization.

Management decisions made in tourism organizations can change the quality of services and services, improve, or vice versa, worsen it. An organization can become competitive, or, on the contrary, lose its advantages in the market. All this depends on the skills and ability of the manager to make timely, optimal decisions, as well as to choose the best style of managing the workforce.

Undoubtedly, the priorities of management decisions in the tourism business should be: quality, brand capital and long-term strategy.

Rice. 6. Example of an Ishikawa Tourism Organization Causal Diagram

4.3. Parameters of the effectiveness of management decisions in tourism organizations

Efficiency of management decisions in tourism organizations is determined by a set of indicators indicating the achievement of goals and the growth of the organization's competitiveness.

We single out the main groups of indicators of a successful tourism organization.

1) Indicators of the competitiveness of a tourism organization:

• market share;
• brand capital;
• the ability to use the best pricing strategy;
• the quality of the tourist product;
• wide choice of tourist products;
• service at a high level,
• the use of means of promoting tourism products, which can contribute to the growth of the company's image, increase the volume of sales, profitability of the organization;
• the ability to use resources that can make tourism products even more attractive to the target audience.

2) Indicators of quality and productivity of labor:

• staff competence;
• the staff is focused on work in this field of activity;
• a set of moral and material motives for the activities of personnel as an advantage;
• payroll fund (PHOT);
• equipping workplaces with modern office equipment;
• continuous training of personnel;
• level of performing discipline;
• implementation of calendar plans and achievement of planned indicators.

3) Indicators of social efficiency:

• reduction in staff turnover;
• favorable socio-psychological climate in the team;
• organizational culture is consumer-oriented;
• a high level of corporatism (commitment to tourism activities, common goals of employees and organizations);
• ability to communicate with clients;
• maintaining a special environment for travel and recreation;
• skillful skills of personnel with data banks and the use of modern information systems.

So, the parameters of the effectiveness of management decisions in tourism organizations are the main result of the activities of managers. Managers develop timely, highly effective solutions and can provide consumers with tourism products High Quality. A high-quality and safe tourist product is what the consumer wants to see.

Tourism Organization Quality Management System is a set of interrelated elements, the main purpose of which is to satisfy the needs of consumers, to provide them with high quality services and tourism products (See: Fig. 7.) . Quality is understood as a measure of customer satisfaction, as well as compliance with standards and regulatory documents.

Rice. 7. Quality management system of a tourism organization

In order to protect the rights and interests of tourists, licensing, standardization of tour operator and travel agency activities, as well as objects of the tourism industry, and certification of the tourist product are carried out.

The factors that determine the quality of a tourism product depend on the type of this product. Currently, a wide variety of programs and products are presented on the tourism industry market.

The main types of tourism products and tourism destinations:

• excursion and bus tours;
• river and sea cruises;
• extreme tourism;
• event tourism (festivals, public events, etc.);
• health tourism;
• domestic tourism (vacation in Russia);
• sports tourism;
• children's and youth recreation programs;
• winter and summer beach recreation programs;
• business tourism;
• individual tourism;
• inbound tourism (reception and service of foreign tourists);
• education abroad.

Tour quality is a set of indicators that expresses a measure of customer satisfaction, compliance with standards and regulatory requirements.

The quality of the tour is determined by a number of indicators.

1) Ensuring the rights of the tourist, his safety and fulfillment of contractual obligations.

In preparation for the trip, during its completion, including transit, the tourist has the right to:

• necessary and reliable information about the rules of entry into the country (place) of temporary stay and stay there, about the customs of the local population, about religious rites, monuments of nature, history, culture and other objects of tourist display;
• freedom of movement, free access to tourist resources, taking into account the restrictive measures adopted in the country (place) of temporary stay;
• ensuring personal safety, their consumer rights and the safety of their property, unhindered access to emergency medical care;
• compensation for losses and compensation for non-pecuniary damage in case of non-fulfillment of the terms of the contract retail purchase and sale tourist product (contract) by a tour operator or travel agent in the manner prescribed by the legislation of the Russian Federation;
• assistance of the authorities (local authorities) of the country (place) of temporary stay in obtaining legal and other types of emergency assistance;
• unhindered access to communications.

2) Quality of services included in the tour:

• the price of the tourist product and the procedure for its payment;
• the procedure for meeting, seeing off and accompanying a tourist;
• the minimum number of tourists in the group;
• travel insurance in case of sudden illness or accident;
• convenient location of the hotel (place) of rest;
• safety in the hotel (place) of the tourist's stay;
• cleanliness and comfort of the rooms;
• price per room;
• Additional services;
• restaurant service;
• the quality of the organization of excursions;
• organization of entertainment events;
• quality of health centers services;
• the availability of exercise equipment and sports equipment;
• proximity (remoteness) from desirable natural or artificially created objects (sea, nature reserves, swimming pools, amusement parks, etc.);
• the attitude of the hotel staff;
• implementation of the schedule of excursions and events;
• the quality of the guide (translator) services;
• holiday contingent.

The quality of the tour is determined by a number of indicators that require careful analysis, market research and consumer requests. The tourism manager may face challenges and circumstances that are difficult to predict and overcome. Environmental disasters, tsunamis, floods, non-departure flights, theft, attacks on tourists and other facts that travel agency employees may encounter. The tourist expects to get new pleasant impressions during the holiday. He moves from one country to another, from his region to a completely different place of residence in terms of natural and cultural characteristics. Accordingly, negative factors, poor quality of service, flight delays, etc. may encourage him to continue to use the services of another travel company. A tourism organization must fulfill all its obligations, anticipate the wishes of tourists and take care of the high quality of their service. The effectiveness of the development of management decisions in tourism organizations is determined, first of all, by the full satisfaction of consumer needs.

1. Baldin K.V. "Management decisions", M.: "Dashkov and K", 2007. - 496 p.

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Introduction 2

1.1.Characteristics and analysis of the object of study. 4

1.1.1. Characteristics of the object of study 4

1.2. Identification and assessment of the problem situation 10

1.2.1. Identification, formulation of problems and formation of a catalog of problems. 10

1.2.2. Analysis of the problem situation. 15

1.2.3. Establishing the causes of the problem situation. 17

1.3 Formation of goals, criteria and restrictions. 17

1.3.1. Formation of goals. 17

1.3.2 Formation of criteria. 17

1.3.3 Formation of restrictions. eighteen

1.4. Building a decision tree. 19

2. Theoretical part. twenty

2.1. Application of the multidimensional scaling method in the development of management decisions. twenty

2.2.Factor analysis in making managerial decisions. 22

2.3. Method "Efficiency - costs" 24

3. Design and calculation part. 26

3.1. Description of solutions. 26

3.1.2.Efficiency-cost analysis 28

3.2.2. Factor analysis. 29

3.2. Organizational and information support of SD 31

REFERENCES 34

Introduction

The basis of the effectiveness of any organization is a reasonable, high-quality management decision. A managerial decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and choosing an alternative from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal.

The development of management decisions provides a toolkit with which you can identify the problems of the organization, optimize many processes, reduce the risk of adverse events, and reduce their negative consequences.

In the process of developing and making a management decision, it is very important to create conditions for ensuring its high quality and efficiency. These conditions include:

use of scientific management approaches in the development of management decisions;

taking into account the impact of economic laws on the effectiveness of management decisions;

application of methods of functional cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and economic justification of management decisions;

structuring the problem and building a tree of goals;

providing multivariate solutions;

ensuring the comparability of alternative options for management decisions;

legal validity of the accepted managerial decisions;

creation and maintenance of the system of responsibility and motivation for a high-quality and effective management decision;

the presence or creation of a mechanism for the implementation of management decisions.

1.1.Characteristics and analysis of the object of study.

1.1.1. Characteristics of the object of study

1. Name of the projected enterprise:

OOO "Triumph"

2. Mission of the enterprise: providing high-quality, affordable hairdressing services to the population

3. The main goals are:

profit maximization

risk reduction for the enterprise

achieve competitive advantage

creation of a network of hairdressing salons "Triumph"

7. start-up capital: own funds in the amount of 5 million rubles.

8. amount of expenses: 4874258.9 rubles.

9. specific weight of profit in the company's revenue;

10. offer price: 3486 rubles.

11. volume of offer: 1980 rubles.

Table 1

Indicators characterizing the financial condition (for the reporting year - 1 and the planning period - the next year).

From the financial plan it can be seen that the company remains generally profitable and break-even, which indicates the economic feasibility of running a new business. But it is planned to reduce the demand for services.

Assessment of competitiveness by the method of multidimensional scaling.

Its main idea is to develop an order (scale) of following the characteristics, which, if possible, reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called stress that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of the scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only property A is more important than property B, then on the basis of the constructed scales it can be said that property A is more important than property B by so many units (of course, units are relative, but to analyze the relative position of properties on the scale priorities, it doesn't matter.

The score is formed on the basis of a survey of consumers. It is advisable to analyze the competitiveness of the enterprise and services separately.

Assessment of the significance of indicators of the competitiveness of the enterprise.

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Fig1. Significance of indicators; consumer preferences.

Thus, for consumers, the most important characteristics of the enterprise are the cleanliness and convenience of the location, which corrects the point scale of the competitiveness of the enterprise, taking into account the significance of the indicators.

table 2

Assessment of the competitiveness of the enterprise "Triumph"

So, according to the results of the analysis of the competitiveness of the enterprise, it was revealed that among the competitors the enterprise takes the second place.

Assessment of the significance of service competitiveness indicators.

Fig2. Significance of indicators; consumer preferences.

Thus, the preferred indicators of the competitiveness of the service are the accuracy of work and the safety of materials.

Table 3

Service competitiveness

So, according to the results of the analysis of the competitiveness of the service, it was revealed that among the competitors the enterprise takes 1st place. The leading positions of the competitiveness of the service are indicators of accuracy and safety. The leading indicators of the company's competitiveness are the convenience of location, cleanliness and comfort.

Assessment of competitiveness allows you to analyze the capabilities of the enterprise: to predict the potential level of production volume and profitability of production.

1.2. Identification and assessment of the problem situation

1.2.1. Identification, formulation of problems and formation of a catalog of problems.

Table 4

Analysis of the external environment of the enterprise

Analysis of marketing, financial and production problems of the enterprise.

Table 5

Analysis of the organization of marketing in the enterprise

Table 6

The financial analysis

Table 7

Analysis of production problems

After analyzing the external and internal environment of the organization, it can be noted that the company "Triumph" is one of the leading enterprises in the market. The company constantly monitors the service market, knows the cost structure of costs well and maintains constant cost accounting. Weaknesses include possible changes in demand for the service. Here, the weak link is the high price of the goods, which is due to the low range of services and unrealized profits of the enterprise.

Based on this, you can create a catalog of problems.

Table 8

Problem catalog

1.2.2. Analysis of the problem situation.

Checking if the problem exists.

Figure 3. Dynamics of production profitability

There is a negative trend - a high probability that the profitability of production will fall. The fall will be caused by its integral components:

Figure 4. Dynamics of demand volume

So, the main problem that needs to be addressed is the likely decrease in demand, as well as unrealized opportunities for using profits. A decrease in the volume of demand will cause a decrease in the vital indicators of the enterprise: profits, profitability of production.

It is necessary to solve the problem in the near future: before the decrease in the efficiency of the enterprise.

The solution to the problem is quite real - there are tools for influencing demand.

1.2.3. Establishing the causes of the problem situation.

So, the effective indicator that characterizes the effectiveness of the decision is profitability and the amount of income.

the amount of income.

Figure 5. Ishikawa Diagram

Analyzing the problematic situation, it is possible to formulate its causes: fluctuations in the volume of demand in the hairdressing services market, a poor range of services, low efficiency of the marketing policy, unrealized opportunities for the company.

1.3 Formation of goals, criteria and restrictions.

1.3.1. Formation of goals.

Increasing the company's income by 2 times within 3 years while maintaining the level of profitability.

1.3.2 Formation of criteria.

Increasing the company's income by 2 times within 3 years, subject to maintaining the level of profitability

Financial and economic

Marketing

Profitability 0.33

Market share

Sales volume 3169

Change of priorities in the market

Profit 3244834.4

Figure 6. Goals and criteria for enterprise management

So, in order to achieve the goal, it is necessary to achieve the following indicators:

Profit 3244834.4 rubles per year

Sales volume 3169 per year

Revenue 11047134 r. In year

Profitability 0.33

1.3.3 Formation of restrictions.

Available resources: profit remaining at the disposal of the enterprise in the amount of 1622417.2 rubles per year

External environment resources: deposit

The best option is 11% per annum (Bank of Moscow)

1622417.2 profits - 35000 (for own needs) * 12 months = 1202417.2

Table 9

Enterprise resources (bank account)

Table 10

Resource allocation

Bank loan – t loan (20% per year Renaissance loan)

Population 1003844 people

Number of potential buyers 10,000 people

The population of this region is 74106 people

1.4. Building a decision tree.

Fig 7. Decision tree

2. Theoretical part.

2.1. Application of the multidimensional scaling method in the development of management decisions.

The main task of the multidimensional scaling method is precisely to reduce the number of factors that must be taken into account when analyzing and evaluating the expected changes in the situation as a result of certain managerial decisions.

Reducing the number of factors that need to be taken into account in a situational analysis is sometimes referred to as downsizing.

An equally important task solved by the multidimensional scaling method, along with a reduction in dimension, is also a meaningful interpretation of the resulting set of factors.

The initial information for multidimensional scaling can be assessments of the similarity and difference by specialists of various options for the development of the situation. Various estimates of similarity and differences are determined by different values ​​of indicators characterizing the state of the situation. Initial

is also a preliminary set of particular criteria, although their number, as a rule, exceeds the number of really important criteria.

Based on the mathematical processing of the initial information, the factors that really influence the development of the situation are established. The multidimensional scaling method got its name because, as a result of the transformation of the initial information, the main indicators characterizing the change in the situation are estimated by a relatively small number of factors, measured in a relatively small number of scales. Each factor identified in this way receives a meaningful interpretation from the experts involved in the situational analysis. The use of the multidimensional scaling method helps to establish the most significant factors that determine the development of the situation. Another important point after establishing the factors that determine the development of the situation is the study of the mechanisms that determine this development, the interaction of factors, the impact of sometimes oppositely oriented forces, competition, etc.

Modeling the situation can help to better understand the situation and the dynamics of its development. A well-developed model allows a more complete analysis of the situation, understanding the driving forces of its development, the role of certain factors. The first example of modeling a situation is to obtain dependencies of indicators characterizing the development of the situation, when the values ​​of the most significant factors change.

So, for example, if one of the main indicators characterizing the economic activity of an enterprise is profit (P), and the main factors affecting the profit received by the enterprise are: competitiveness of products (K), production volume (O), cost of products (С), the current demand for products in the sales markets (Сп) and the type of dependence is established

P \u003d K1 * K + K2 * O + K3 * C + K4 * Sp

where K1, K2, K3, K4 are coefficients characterizing the comparative weight of the established factors, then we can calculate the expected value of profit for a particular value of the factors on which it depends.

The timing of the forecasting period largely depends on the nature of the organization's activities. But with a stable economy, this can be a fairly reliable forecast for 5 years. The forecast, developed using custom-built models, may include key financial and operational indicators. It allows you to correctly assess the expected development of the situation and make decisions that lead to the goal. If the economy is unstable, then models that can be used to make short-term forecasts for the immediate planning period are more useful. In organizations that have managed to create adequate and reliable models for analyzing situations, their use allows management to really manage the development of situations, to consciously choose one or another direction of development.

2.2.Factor analysis in making managerial decisions.

Factor analysis is based on the assumption that, on the basis of statistical data, an analytical dependence can be obtained, reflecting the degree of influence of factors and changes in their values ​​on planned or actual indicators characterizing the situation.

Factor analysis solves the problem of determining: the factors necessary to identify all significant dependencies that affect the development of the situation; coefficients (sometimes called loads) characterizing

the influence of each of the identified factors on indicators reflecting the state and development of the situation.

The application of the factor analysis method allows, based on the processing of statistical information, to classify factors into essential and non-essential, main and non-main, internal and external.

Based on the results of processing statistical data, the need can be established and the factors are detailed, or, conversely, the need can be established and the factors can be aggregated.

The coefficients of influence of each of the selected factors calculated on the basis of data processing make it possible, on the one hand, to determine the ranking of factors by importance, i.e., arrange the factors in descending order of their importance, and on the other hand, obtain a formula for calculating the expected

values ​​of indicators characterizing the situation, with one or another change in the values ​​of factors.

The results obtained using factor analysis make it possible to more reasonably assess the expected changes in the situation with certain expected changes in factors due to emerging trends or managerial influences, the expediency of which is established in the process of using situational analysis technologies.

There are the following main stages of factor analysis:

1. Setting the goal of the analysis.

2. Selection of factors that determine the studied performance indicators.

3. Classification and systematization of factors in order to provide an integrated and systematic approach to the study of their impact on the results of economic activity.

4. Determining the form of the relationship between the factors and the performance indicator.

5. Modeling the relationship between performance and factor indicators.

6. Calculation of the influence of factors and assessment of the role of each of them in changing the value of the effective indicator.

7. Working with the factor model (its practical use for managing economic processes).

2.3. Method "Efficiency-Costs"

Cost-Efficiency and Cost-Profit Methods

When solving evaluation problems, decision makers have to face the need to compare sometimes opposite goals. Among the most common methods for finding compromise solutions, two can be distinguished: “cost-effectiveness” and “cost-profit”

Course work

discipline: "Development of management decisions"

on the topic: "Development of a management solution aimed at improving the efficiency of an enterprise using the example of IP" SK ""

Introduction

In the process of economic and financial activities of the organization, situations constantly arise when there is a need to choose one of several possible options for action. As a result of such a choice, a certain decision appears.

In conditions market economythere is a high degree of uncertainty in economic behavior market entities . Therefore, the methods of prospective analysis play an important role here, allowing management decisions to be made based on an assessment of possible future situations and a choice from several alternative solutions. The development and implementation of effective management decisions is the most important prerequisite for ensuringproduct competitivenessorganization and the organization itself in the market, as well as creating an optimal structure of the organization, implementing a sound personnel policy and rationalizing other aspects of the organization's activities.

Choice correct and effective management decisionis the result of the complex use of economic, organizational, legal, technical, informational, logical, mathematical, psychological and other aspects.

Thus, management decisions are a way of constantinfluence of the control subsystem on the controlled subsystem, that is, the subject of control to the object of control. This impact ultimately leads to the achievement of the intended goals.

Based on the foregoing, we can give the following definition of management decision.

Management decisionin the organization is an act of the subject of management (the head of the organization or a group of managers), aimed at choosing from several alternative options for the development of the organization of one option that ensures the achievement of the intended goals at the lowest cost.

The purpose of this work is to use the example of a given situation to practically apply the basic procedures for the development and implementation of management decisions, the role of target and processor technologies for the development and implementation of management decisions, determine the methods of their choice and their mutual subordination, as well as compare and justify the use of various methods for developing management decisions. .

1 Study of the situation and preliminary formulation of the task facing the organization

For a preliminary formulation of the task (problem) that needs to be addressed, it is necessary to study the management situation in the organization, as well as assess the position of the enterprise in the market, highlighting the main advantages and disadvantages of the activity of this legal entity.

Society with limited liability"SK" (LLC "SK") is a convenience food store located in the microdistrict. Sokolniki, Novomoskovsk. The main function of the "SK" is to meet the food and economic needs of the population of the microdistrict. The convenient location of the store allows customers not to spend extra time shopping. The SK store is able to serve up to 1000-1500 customers per day.

The assortment of "SK" ranges from 3,000 to 7,000 items of goods and is able to satisfy the needs of absolutely every customer. The stores pay special attention to the quality of the products offered, sometimes promotions and "hot days" are held. Unfortunately, at the moment there is no system of discount cards "SK", which would allow customers to receive permanent additional discounts.

In this paper, we will consider the activities of the SK store located at the address: Novomoskovsk, Sokolniki microdistrict, Komsomolskaya street, 19.

The store has been operating since 1999. in the convenience store position. But only in 2006. was reconstructed and became a self-service store. The total area of ​​the store is 267.9 square meters. m. (of which 199.3 sq. m. - retail space).

The store is located in the “sleeping” area of ​​the microdistrict, which allows it to have its own formed circle of customers. Opening hours (daily from 9:00 to 23:00, without lunch) allow you to shop even for those residents of the microdistrict, whose working day ends late in the evening.

In addition to a wide range of food products, the store also has the necessary household goods and goods for animals.

The store's largest product range is represented by sausages and dairy products.

Main suppliers of sausage products:

- IP Zhdanov V.A.;

- IP Postnikov K.N.;

- IP Fedotov O.Yu.

Main suppliers of dairy products:

- IP Isaeva E.A.;

- IP Rumyantsev A.A.;

– OOO Danprodukt;

– TSK Foods LLC.

Main competitors:

– Magnit LLC;

– Pyaterochka LLC;

- IP Kurevleva E. S. (sales outlet (kiosk) next to the store);

- IP Yumatova O.M. (shop near the store)

The staff of this store directly includes employees:

– store manager (1 person);

– accountant (1 person);

– sales assistants-cashiers (5 people);

– merchandiser (1 person);

– cleaning lady (1 person).

There are 2 cash desks in the shops.

The entire store has a television surveillance system that allows you to:

– to minimize losses, strengthen personnel discipline, control offenses on the territory of the facility;

- to increase, in comparison with conventional video surveillance systems, the storage time of information archives, which allows you to restore events a month ago or more;

- "accompany" visitors throughout the store;

- to control what is happening in the trading floor, the zone of settlement and cash operations and utility rooms;

- control the actions of personnel during working hours, breaks and shift changes;

- identify complex schemes of theft of goods by groups of intruders;

- control the reception and display of goods;

- control the quality of customer service;

– provide an evidence base for resolving conflicts on the territory of the store.

The main advantages and disadvantages in the activities of the SK store are clearly shown in the diagram (Figure 1).

Based on the listed advantages and disadvantages of the store, it is possible to set the initial task for SK LLC: to determine the degree of influence of the bad faith of product suppliers on the store's activities.

Figure 1 - Advantages and disadvantages of the store "SK"

2 Processing and analysis of information to clarify the task

The business activity of the organization is measured using a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators. Business activity ratios allow you to analyze how efficiently the company uses its funds. Analysis of business activity is to study the levels and dynamics of financial turnover ratios.

Qualitative criteria are the breadth of sales markets (internal and external), the business reputation of the company, its competitiveness, the presence of regular suppliers and buyers of finished products. These criteria should be compared with similar characteristics of competitors operating in the industry. The data is taken mainly not from financial statements, but from marketing research.

Quantitative criteria of business activity are characterized by absolute and relative indicators. The absolute indicators include: the volume of sales of finished products, the amount of assets and capital used, including equity, profit.

Let's evaluate the business activity of LLC "SK" according to qualitative criteria. In our case, it is not possible to compare the characteristics of our enterprise with similar characteristics of competitors for the past periods, so we will draw conclusions based on the available data.

1) Breadth of sales markets (internal and external). The SK store operates on the territory of the Sokolniki microdistrict of the city of Novomoskovsk, so it is extremely important to win customers in this particular area.

2) Business reputation. For several years of operation, SK stores have rightfully earned a good reputation and numerous positive customer reviews.

3) Competitiveness. It is difficult for SK to compete with such large stores as Pyaterochka and Magnit.

4) The presence of regular suppliers and buyers. Over the years of work and thanks to the "correct" location in the center of the city, "SK" has acquired regular customers in the face of residents of nearby residential buildings. The management of SK has entered into long-term supply contracts with a number of suppliers.

For a more specific formulation of the main task, we will analyze the main indicators of the enterprise's reporting forms for 2011. (see Appendix A, B).

The balance sheet currency for the period (compared to the previous year) decreased. This fact is negative, since the turnover of the Company should increase (this will indicate the expansion of activities). Also (according to the Profit and Loss Statement) the volume of profit and prime cost decreased. All this indicates a decrease in the growth rate of the store's turnover.

The overall situation of the enterprise in general can be assessed as satisfactory.

On the basis of the advantages and disadvantages identified earlier, we will finally formulate the main task (problem) that needs to be solved by the management of LLC "SK": in a short time to take measures to normalize the supply of goods, to solve the problem of dishonesty of suppliers.

3 Identification of the problem (spectrum of problems in their mutual subordination)

Earlier, we indicated that the SK store is an independent (not a chain) self-service store. The general condition of the Company can be assessed as satisfactory. But there are some problems in working with suppliers of sausage and dairy products.

In the specified store for the past few months there is a problem with the suppliers of goods:

- supplier of sausages IP Zhdanov V.A. within two months violates the terms of delivery (term and quantity of goods);

- supplier of dairy products IP Rumyantsev A.A. also deviates from the terms of the supply agreement and overstates the prices of goods. The management of "SK" is forced to make concessions and buy goods at a higher price, so as not to lose one of the permanent counterparties;

- about 10% of the goods of Danprodukt LLC turn out to be of poor quality (expired).

In addition to the primary problems in the process of carrying out its activities, the enterprise may also face risks. These risks are uncontrollable factors that the decision maker cannot influence in the process of solving the goals and current tasks of the enterprise.

1. Industry risks:

Risks associated with a possible change in prices for goods, electricity, freight transportation.The most significant for the enterprise is the risk associated with possible changes in prices for goods. Any barriers to access to goods for sale can seriously affect the operation of the enterprise and its financial performance.

2. Financial risks:

Changes in the monetary policy in the country may lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates on attracted loans, higher prices and, accordingly, higher costs for the enterprise.

1) problems caused by a deviation from the normal functioning of the organization (for example, the emergency state of refrigeration equipment) require immediate solutions;

2) problems caused by an improperly organized system functioning process, namely, the presence of permanent organizational shortcomings (for example, low labor productivity), the solution of such problems requires a longer time;

3) tasks of the third type consist in choosing the optimal tactics and strategy in the functioning and development of the organization (for example, the import of a new product);

4) tasks of the fourth type are to predict changes in the external environment and make the necessary changes in the organization.

The management apparatus of LLC "SK" has set itself tasks for the medium term.

The objectives of sustainable development of LLC "SK" in 2012-2013. are:

1) Investment projects (tasks of the 3rd type):

– reconstruction of the department of sausages;

– replacement of refrigeration units in the dairy products department.

2) Marketing policy (tasks of the 2nd type):

– study of customer demand (study of statistical indicators, as well as the level of potential and seasonal demand for goods);

– further study of the principles of merchandising.

3) Personnel (tasks of the 2nd type):

– an increase in the real content of wages by 20%;

– system development vocational training for all categories of personnel, providing opportunities for self-realization and career growth.

4) Safety and labor protection (tasks of the 2nd type):

- maintaining a positive trend in reducing the main indicators of injuries;

– raising the level of working conditions, installing an air conditioner in the baby food department, switching to autonomous heating.

Conclusion: earlier we identified the main drawback in the company's activities: a decrease in the level of responsibility of suppliers of goods to the Company. The final formulation of the task facing the organization is as follows: to identify ways to improve the quality of purchased goods, as well as regulate their quantity and delivery time.

4 Substantiation of criteria for choosing the optimal solution and determining their desirable characteristics

Before implementing a management decision, we will determine the criteria for further evaluation of its effectiveness. Table 1 presents the criteria themselves, as well as their weight estimates. The criterion with the highest score has the highest significance.

Table 1 - Criteria for evaluating alternative solutions to the identified problem and their weighting.

Let's consider each criterion in more detail.

1. Revenue. The revenue (effect) from the decision made should be maximum, otherwise it is not worth wasting the time and resources of the organization. To achieve the goal, one hundred percent or almost such a result is required.

2. Deadline for the implementation of the event. The timing of implementation is of great importance. It is necessary to act quickly, otherwise the situation of the organization will worsen even more, and it may lose its position in the market and business reputation.

3. The cost of holding the event. Costs must be calculated in advance. They should not undermine the financial position of the organization, but if the management of the enterprise wants to achieve the goal, it is even necessary to temporarily abandon some other projects in favor of the chosen alternative.

4. Number of personnel involved. Additional workload in the process of implementing the selected activities should entail the payment of bonuses and overtime to the personnel of the enterprise. In order for the cost of wages and deductions not to reach a critical level, management needs to seriously approach the issue of organizing all employees of the enterprise in advance.

According to these criteria, we will further evaluate alternative solutions to the identified problem.

5 Development of alternative solutions to the problem

Let's define a number of alternative options for making managerial decisions that can contribute to the solution of the priority task.

1. Tightening the terms of supply contracts, including an increase in penalties for delay, a reduction in delivery times, a more stringent approach to quality control of goods.

2. Termination of existing supply contracts and the conclusion of new ones with those suppliers with whom the organization has not yet worked.

3. Expansion of the circle of suppliers (preservation of old connections and conclusion of new contracts).

We summarize all the information in Table 2.

Table 2 - Alternatives and criteria for their evaluation

Conclusion: the adoption of all these measures can potentially improve the position of the organization, bring it to a new high level, and increase the overall performance of the enterprise.

At the next stage of work, we will choose the best alternative from those listed above.

6. Comparison of alternative solutions according to the developed criteria and selection of the optimal solution

We will evaluate the developed alternatives using the developed criteria and the priority coefficients assigned to them. To do this, fill in Tables 3, 4, 5.

Table 3 - Evaluation of the developed alternatives according to the specified criteria

Table 4 - Evaluation of the developed alternatives on a 5-point scale

Table 5 - Evaluation of the developed alternatives

Calculate the final sum of the coefficients for each alternative. The alternative with the highest overall score will have the best result.

1. 0.6 * 3 + 0.3 * 5 + 0.06 * 5 + 0.04 * 5 \u003d 3.8 b.

2. 0.6*1+0.3*3+0.06*2+0.04*5 = 1.82 b.

3. 0.6 * 5 + 0.3 * 4 + 0.06 * 4 + 0.04 * 5 \u003d 4.64 b.

Conclusion: according to the studies conducted at stages 5 and 6 of the work, it can be concluded that the most effective and acceptable alternative for SK LLC is to expand the circle of suppliers.

7 Approval of the adopted management decision

All transformations, according to the chosen alternative, will take place within the organization, therefore, coordination with any external bodies is not required.

However, the volume of internal documentation will not be too large. The main responsibilities, including the search for new suppliers, (to minimize cash costs, unlike searching through an agency) will fall on the management of the organization, which must make the right decision about which counterparties to conclude supply contracts with.

8 Development of a plan for the implementation of the adopted management decision

At this stage, it is necessary to draw up a plan for the implementation of the adopted management decision. Let's arrange it in the form of a table (Table 4).

Table 6 - Plan for the implementation of the adopted management decision

9 Evaluation of the results of the implementation of the management decision

At this stage of the work, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated or the actual results are compared with the planned ones. Due to the fact that the developed solution is not implemented in practice, it is necessary to compare it with the predicted results and, based on them, evaluate the effectiveness of the developed solution, this is shown in Table 7.

At the early stages of work, we have already carried out a similar analysis and identified the consequences of the managerial decision.

Table 7 - Analysis of the base and planning period when adopting the SD 3 alternative.

Table 7 shows that when using this alternative, the organization's revenue will increase by 4983 rubles, and there is also an increase in gross profit by 5950 rubles. and a decrease in the cost of sales by 967 rubles.

But commercial expenses will increase by 4,000 rubles, but this amount is nevertheless less than the amount of the increase in revenue, so it does not cause strong concerns.

Conclusion: the management decision we have chosen (namely, expanding the circle of suppliers) after the analysis is the most acceptable.

Conclusion

The object of study of this work was SK LLC, namely a store in the Sokolniki microdistrict of the city of Novomoskovsk along Komsomolskaya street, 19, which operates in the retail industry.

We studied the managerial situation within the enterprise and assessed its general position. Based on the information studied, it was concluded that, along with numerous advantages in the work of the enterprise, it has one significant drawback - the poor quality work of suppliers over the past few months.

We have proposed a number of alternative solutions to this problem. Of these, only one event was selected, the holding of which, in our opinion, should fully solve the task, correct the situation in the organization and bring it to a new level in its development.

The conclusion of new supply contracts (with new suppliers) while maintaining existing relationships, in our opinion, is the best solution from a number of proposed alternatives.

We also proposed the procedure for applying the developed measure.

Bibliography:

1 Lecture notes on the course "Management decisions"

2 Guidelines for the course "Management decisions"

3 Internet page: http://www.victoria-group.ru/shops/kopilka/

4 Web page:http://www.skb-integrator.ru/portfolio/2

5 Brazhko E.I., Serebryakova G.V., Smirnov E.A. Management decisions: Proc. allowance. - M .: RIOR Publishing House, 2006

6 Chudnovskaya S.N. Management decisions: textbook / S.N. Chudnovskaya. – M.: Eksmo, 2007

7 Fatkhutdinov R.A. Development of a management decision: Textbook .- M .: CJSC "Business School Intel-Synthesis", 2007

8 Litvak B.G. Expert assessments of decision making. – M.: Patent, 2006

9 Eddous M., Stansfield R. Decision-making methods: Per. from English. – M.: Banks and stock exchanges. UNITY, 2007

10 Vendelin A.G. Preparation and adoption of management decisions. Methodological aspect. - M.: Economics, 2007

Annex A

Annex B

Advantages

The main problem at this stage is the unscrupulousness of suppliers, which does not allow to clearly regulate the delivery time, quantity and quality of goods. This disadvantage can deprive the company of its regular customers.

LLC "SK"

disadvantages

1. For clients:

- the store is located in a "sleeping" area, not far from the house;

- the store's work schedule allows you to make purchases even late in the evening;

– not only food products are on sale, but also household goods, toys and pet products;

- the area of ​​the store allows you to place goods conveniently for the eyes of buyers;

– low prices;

- regular promotions.

2. For employees:

- registration according to the Labor Code of the Russian Federation;

- social benefits;

- payment for work, bonuses, gifts for the holidays.

3. For suppliers:

- "SK" - a regular customer who orders large quantities of goods.

4. For owners:

- SK LLC is on a simplified taxation system (income-expenses, 15%), which allows you to save on the services of an accountant during the reporting period, as well as save on taxes themselves, increasing the percentage of net profit.

Management decisions in the organization: concept and essence

In the course of the work of the organization there are always a number of problems that need to be addressed. Top management bodies are involved in decision-making.

Definition 1

Making a decision is not easy, it requires certain skills, experience and knowledge from the head of the organization. It is believed that the decision-making process is one of the most responsible in the organization, since the efficiency of the enterprise depends on it.

Each person makes several decisions during the day, from where to drink coffee for lunch, to which country to go on vacation. But there is a significant difference between ordinary decisions and managerial ones.

A leader, like any other person, makes many decisions a day, personal and work, so work management decisions are responsibility, risk and work.

The quality of the decision made largely determines the course of the organization's activities, the right decisions make the company develop, the wrong decisions slow down and worsen the work of the enterprise.

Stages of making a managerial decision

The process of making a managerial decision includes several stages:

• goal definition;
• consideration of the problem;
• calculation and justification of a decision and analysis of possible consequences;
• exploring several options for solving a problem;
• choosing an appropriate solution to the problem;
• making a management decision;
• announcement of the decision to the performers;
• control over the implementation of the decision.

Examples of management decisions

Example 1

Over the past three years, the organization has seen a negative downward trend in profits. Analysts argue that this is due to the fact that the company's sales are declining, the product on the market is losing competitiveness, costs are rising, and there is a need to dismiss part of the staff in order to reduce the company's costs.

In this situation:

• The purpose of the decision is to increase the profit of the enterprise.
• The problem is a negative downward trend in the profit indicator for three years.

Justification of the decision of analysts - if you dismiss part of the staff, then the profit will recover due to the reduction in costs. The head of the company must also understand that if the product loses its competitiveness in the market, then in the future the profit from the sale of such a product will only fall, and not only part of the staff, but, possibly, most of the staff will have to be fired, and the problem will not disappear.

Other options for solving the problem are to conduct marketing research on why the product is losing competitive properties, why sales are falling, what is wrong with the product, what the consumer wants to see from the product. The answers to these questions will allow the manager to find the right way to solve the root of the problem, avoiding mass layoffs.

Decision making - to allocate funds from the profit of the enterprise for marketing research, not to dismiss the staff, to look for the essence of the problem in another, to reorient production to produce a product in demand on the market that can satisfy

Introduction

Decision-making, as well as the exchange of information, is an integral part of any managerial function. The need for decision-making arises at all stages of the management process, is associated with all areas and aspects of management activities and is its quintessence. That is why it is so important to understand the nature and essence of decisions.

The adoption of a managerial decision is always associated with the existence of an urgent problem in certain situation. Problem solving is a process consisting of a sequence of successive actions. This process begins with the discovery of a problem situation and ends with the implementation of the chosen solution (the best possible alternatives) and the evaluation of the result of removing the problem.

The relevance of this topic lies in the fact that the head of any organization daily faces the implementation of a management decision. And how correctly it will be accepted, all further activities of the enterprise depend. The adoption of a managerial decision is subject to the influence of factors that reflect the characteristics of the manager who makes the decision, the features negative impact the external environment, as well as the negative consequences associated with them, information restrictions, the interdependence of decisions made and other factors.

This term paper is the study of the essence of management decisions and the process of implementation in the enterprise.

The purpose of the course work led to the following tasks:

- study of the theoretical aspect in order to substantiate the essence of the category "managerial decisions";

Study of the main stages, models and methods of the process of making managerial decisions;

Carrying out the technology of making managerial decisions on the example of the head (anti-crisis manager) of a construction organization.

The object of the study is the Production Republican Unitary Enterprise "Goryn Plant of Building Materials" specializing in the production of bricks and ceramic stones.

The subject of the course work is the theoretical and practical issues of organizing management decision-making and methods for analyzing the effectiveness of their implementation and control.

1. The concept, essence and classification of management decisions.

What is a decision? Let's try to give first the most general characteristics. Usually, in the course of any activity, situations arise when a person or a group of people is faced with the need to choose one of several possible options for action. The result of this choice will be the decision. In this way, solution - is the choice of alternative.

Each of us has to choose something dozens of times every day (not always, though, thinking about it), developing our abilities and acquiring decision-making skills from our own experience. There are many examples: choosing clothes from an existing wardrobe, choosing dishes from a proposed menu, choosing the most convenient transport route, choosing a vacation spot, choosing a specialty when receiving a professional education, choosing a type of bank deposit, etc. This list is easy to continue.

Any act of an individual or action of a collective is preceded by a decision. Decisions are a universal form of behavior of both an individual and social groups. This universality is explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity. However, despite the universality of decisions, their adoption in the process of managing an organization differs significantly from decisions made in private life (5, pp. 18-19).

What distinguishes managerial (organizational) decisions:

1. Goals. The subject of management (be it an individual or a group)
makes decisions based not on his own needs (although their influence plays a role), but for the purposes of
solving the problems of a particular organization.

2. Consequences. Individual choice affects
his own life and may affect a few loved ones
him people. A manager, especially of a high rank, chooses
management of actions not only for themselves, but also for the organization in
in general and its employees, and its decisions can significantly affect the lives of many people. If the organization is large and
influential, the decisions of its leaders can seriously affect the socio-economic situation of entire regions.
For example, the decision to close a company's unprofitable facility can significantly increase unemployment.

3. Division of labor. If in private life a person, when making a decision, as a rule, fulfills it himself, then in an organization there is a certain division of labor: some employees (managers) are busy solving emerging problems and making decisions, while others (performers) are busy implementing decisions already made.

4. Professionalism. In private life, each person independently makes decisions by virtue of his intellect and experience. In managing an organization, decision-making is a much more complex, responsible and formalized process that requires professional training. Not every employee of the organization, but only those with certain professional knowledge and skills, is empowered to independently make certain decisions (8, pp. 291-294).

Having considered these distinctive features of decision-making in organizations, we can give the following definition of managerial decision.

Management decision

In the process of managing organizations, a huge number of a wide variety of decisions with different characteristics are made. However, there are some common features that allow this set to be classified in a certain way. Such a classification is presented in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1. Classification of management decisions

Let's consider it in more detail.

- The degree of recurrence of the problem. Depending on the recurrence of the problem that needs to be solved, all management decisions can be divided into traditional, repeatedly encountered earlier in management practice, when it is only necessary to make a choice from existing alternatives, and atypical, non-standard solutions, when their search is associated primarily with the generation new alternatives.

- The significance of the goal. Decision making can be
own, independent end or be a means,
contribute to the achievement of a higher order goal. IN
Accordingly, decisions can be strategic or
tactical.

- Sphere of influence. The result of the decision may affect
in one or more departments of the organization. In this case, the solution can be considered local. The decision, however, can also be made with the aim of influencing the work of the organization as a whole, in which case it will be global.

- Implementation duration. The implementation of the solution may take several hours, days or months. If between the adoption of a decision and the completion of its implementation, a comparatively short term is a short term solution. At the same time, the number and importance of long-term, long-term solutions, the results of the implementation of
which may be removed for several years.

- predicted consequences. Most management decisions in the process of their implementation are somehow amenable to adjustment in order to eliminate any deviations or take into account new factors, that is, they are correctable. However, there are solutions, the consequences of which are irreversible.

- The nature of the information used. Depending on the
the degree of completeness and reliability of the information that the manager has, management decisions can be deterministic (taken under conditions of certainty) or probabilistic (taken under risk or uncertainty). These conditions play an extremely important role in decision making, so let's look at them in more detail.

Deterministic Solutions are taken under conditions of certainty, when the manager has almost complete and reliable information regarding the problem being solved, which allows him to know exactly the result of each of the alternative choices. There is only one such result, and the probability of its occurrence is close to one.

probabilistic Decisions made under conditions of risk or uncertainty are called.

To the decisions made at risk, include those whose outcomes are not certain, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. Probability can be determined mathematically based on statistical analysis experimental data. For example, life insurance companies can use demographic data to predict death rates for certain age groups with a high degree of accuracy and, from this base, determine insurance rates and insurance premiums that allow them to pay insurance premiums and make a profit. Such a probability, calculated on the basis of information that makes it possible to make a statistically reliable forecast, is called objective.

In some cases, however, the organization does not have sufficient information to objectively assess the likelihood of possible events. In such situations, managers are helped by experience, which suggests what that is most likely to happen. In these cases, the probability estimate is subjective.

An example of a decision made under risk is the decision of a transport company to insure its fleet of vehicles.

The manager does not know for sure whether there will be accidents and how much and what damage they will cause, but from the statistics of traffic accidents, he knows that one in ten cars has an accident once a year and the average damage is $ 1000 (conditional numbers). If an organization has 100 vehicles, then 10 accidents with a total damage of $10,000 are likely in a year. In reality, there may be fewer accidents, but more damage, or vice versa. Based on this, a decision is made on the appropriateness of vehicle insurance and the amount of the sum insured.

IN market economy the manager must take into account the level of risk as the most important factor in decision-making.

The decision is made in the face of uncertainty when, due to lack of information, it is impossible to quantify the likelihood of its possible outcomes. This is quite common when solving new, atypical problems, when the factors that need to be taken into account are so new or complex that it is impossible to get enough information about them. Uncertainty is also characteristic of some decisions that have to be made in rapidly changing situations. As a result, the probability of a certain alternative cannot be estimated with a sufficient degree of certainty.

When faced with uncertainty, the manager can use two main options:

1) try to get more information and
re-analyze the problem in order to reduce its novelty and complexity. Combined with experience and intuition, this will enable him to assess the subjective, perceived likelihood of possible outcomes;

2) when there is not enough time and / or funds to collect additional information, when making decisions, one has to rely on past experience and intuition.

Some decisions, as a rule, typical, repetitive, can be successfully formalized, i.e., taken according to a predetermined algorithm. In other words, formalized solution - it is the result of performing a predetermined sequence of actions. For example, when scheduling equipment maintenance, the manager

shop can come from a standard that requires a certain ratio between the amount of equipment and maintenance personnel. If there are 50 pieces of equipment in the shop, and the maintenance standard is 10 pieces per repair worker, then the shop must have five repairmen. In the same way, when a financial manager decides to invest free funds in public securities, he chooses between various types bonds, depending on which of them provide the greatest return on invested capital at a given time. The choice is made on the basis of a simple calculation of the final yield for each option and the establishment of the most profitable one.

Formalization of decision-making increases the efficiency of management by reducing the likelihood of error and saving time: no need to re-develop a solution every time a corresponding situation arises. Therefore, the management of organizations often formalizes solutions for certain, regularly recurring situations, developing appropriate rules, instructions and standards.

At the same time, in the process of managing organizations, there are often new, atypical situations and non-standard problems that are not amenable to a formalized solution. In such cases, intellectual abilities, talent and personal initiative of managers play an important role.

Of course, in practice, most decisions fall somewhere between these two extremes, allowing for both personal initiative and formal procedure in the process of their development. Specific methods used in the decision-making process are discussed below.

If the choice of the best alternative is made according to only one criterion (which is typical for formalized decisions), then the decision made will be simple, single-criteria. And vice versa, when the chosen alternative must satisfy several criteria at the same time, the decision will be complex, multi-criteria. In management practice, the vast majority of decisions are multi-criteria, since they must simultaneously meet such criteria as: profit volume, profitability, quality level, market share, employment level, implementation period, etc.

The person making the choice from the available alternatives of the final decision can be one person and his decision will be, accordingly, the sole one. However, in modern management practice, complex situations and problems are increasingly encountered, the solution of which requires a comprehensive, integrated analysis, i.e., the participation of a group of managers and specialists. Such group or collective decisions are called collegiate. Increasing professionalization and deepening the specialization of management lead to widespread collegial forms of decision-making. It must also be borne in mind that certain decisions are legally classified as collegial. So, for example, certain decisions in a joint-stock company (on the payment of dividends, distribution of profits and losses, making big deals, election of governing bodies, reorganization, etc.) are assigned to the exclusive competence of general meeting shareholders. The collegial form of decision-making, of course, reduces the efficiency of management and "blurs" responsibility for its results, but it prevents gross errors and abuses and increases the validity of the choice.

On this basis, management decisions can be divided into fixed, or documented (i.e., drawn up in the form of a document - an order, instruction, letter, etc.), and undocumented (without documentary form, oral). Most decisions in the administrative apparatus are documented, however, minor, insignificant decisions, as well as decisions made in emergency, acute, urgent situations, may not be documented (11, pp. 118-132).

2. Technology and techniques for making managerial decisions. Methods of making managerial decisions.

Structure and content of the decision-making process. For a leader, decision making is not an end in itself. The main concern of a manager is not the choice of an alternative itself, but the resolution of a certain managerial problem. This very often requires not a single decision, but a certain sequence of decisions and, most importantly, their implementation. Therefore, a decision is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that develops over time and has a certain structure. Based on this, we can give the following definition of this process. Decision making process - this is a cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization and consisting in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, making a decision and organizing its implementation (1, pp. 178-181).

Consider the stages of the process of making managerial decisions.

- Analysis of the situation. For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or can cause a deviation from the specified mode of the system's functioning, i.e., the presence of a management situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for making the right decision is to analyze the situation.

Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment. Data on the state of the main environmental factors and the state of affairs in the organization are received by managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the actual values ​​of controlled parameters with planned or predicted ones, which in turn allows them to identify problems that should be solved.

- Problem identification. The first step towards solving a problem is its definition, or diagnosis, complete and correct. As they say, to formulate a problem correctly means to half solve it.

There are two views on the essence of the problem. According to one, a situation is considered a problem when the set goals are not achieved or there is a deviation from the set level, for example, the master can determine that labor productivity or the quality of products in his area is below the norm. According to another, the problem should be considered as well as the potential for efficiency gains. Combining both of these approaches, we understand by discrepancy between desired and actual states managed object.

Identifying and formulating a problem is a very complex procedure. The fact is that at the time of their emergence, many of the most important problems are poorly structured, that is, they do not contain obvious goals, alternative ways to achieve them, or an idea of ​​the costs and effects associated with each of the options. Bringing these problems to quantitative certainty (structuring) requires from managers not only knowledge and experience, but also talent, intuition, and creativity.

In medical terminology, the first step in diagnosing a complex problem is identifying the symptoms. The general symptoms of the illness of the organization are: low - profit, sales volume, labor productivity, quality of goods and services; high - costs, staff turnover, numerous conflicts. Identifying symptoms helps to define the problem in a general way, but just as different diseases often have common symptoms (headache can be caused by both ordinary overwork and hypertension), different causes can cause similar organizational problems (poor product quality can be the result of both worn-out equipment and insufficient qualification of workers). Therefore, managers should investigate the causes of the problem more deeply and not rush to eliminate only its symptoms.

We must also not forget that all elements and activities in the organization are interconnected and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.

ABOUT definition of selection criteria. Before considering possible solutions to a problem, the manager needs to determine indicators by which alternatives will be compared and the best choice will be made. These indicators are called selection criteria. For example, when deciding to purchase new equipment, one can focus on the criteria of price, performance, operating costs, ergonomics, etc., and in the case of a decision to hire a new employee, the selection criteria among candidates can be education, work experience, age , personal qualities.

- Development of alternatives. The next step is to develop a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible alternative ways to solve the problem, only in this case the solution can be optimal. However, in practice, the manager does not (and cannot) have such stocks of knowledge and time to formulate and evaluate every possible alternative. Managers are well aware that the search for the optimal solution is very difficult, time consuming and expensive, so they are looking not for the optimal, but for a good enough, acceptable option that allows them to solve the problem. The selection criteria defined at the previous stage help to cut off unsuitable alternatives in advance.

Along with the situation when options for solving a problem are known in advance or are found without much difficulty, situations often arise in which the problem being solved has not been encountered before, i.e., possible alternatives are unknown and must be formulated in advance. In such cases, collective discussion of the problem and the generation of alternatives are very useful.

- Choice of an alternative. Having developed possible solutions to the problem, they need to be evaluated, i.e., to compare the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative, and to objectively analyze the likely results of their implementation. To compare solutions, it is necessary to have standards or criteria by which they can be compared.

It should be noted that since the choice is made, as a rule, on the basis of several, and not one criterion, it always has the character of a compromise. In addition, when evaluating possible solutions, the manager actually deals with predictive estimates of the compared values, and they are always probabilistic. Therefore, it is very important to take into account the risk factor, that is, to determine the likelihood of each alternative being implemented. Taking into account the risk factor leads to a revision of the very concept of the best solution: it is not the option that maximizes or minimizes a certain indicator, but the one that ensures its achievement. with the highest degree of probability.

- Decision approval. In modern management systems, as a result of the division of labor, a situation has developed in which some employees of the organization prepare and develop a decision, others accept or approve, and third ones carry out. In other words, the manager often approves and is responsible for a solution that he did not develop; the specialists who prepared and analyzed the decision do not participate in its implementation, and the performers do not take part in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared. Management decision-making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. Meanwhile, although the main stages of the PPR organizations and individuals are the same, the formation of decisions in the organization differs significantly from individual decision-making. It is the organization, and not the individual leader, who must respond to emerging problems. And not one leader, but all members of the organization should strive to improve the efficiency of its work. Of course, managers choose the course for the organization, but for the decision to be implemented, the joint action of all members of the organization is necessary. Therefore, the stage of coordination plays a very significant role in group decision-making processes.

Ideally, performers act in accordance with the decisions of managers, but practice is far from ideal and this is not always the case. Recognition of a solution is rarely automatic, even if it is clearly a good one. Therefore, the leader must convince the correctness of his point of view, prove to employees that his decision brings benefits to both the organization and its individual members. Practice shows that the probability of quick and effective implementation increases significantly when the performers have the opportunity to express their opinion on the decision being made, make suggestions, comments, etc. Then the decision taken is perceived as their own, and not imposed "from above". Therefore, the best way to agree on a decision is to involve employees in the decision-making process. Of course, this method should not be absolutized: there are situations when it is impossible or irrational and the manager is forced to make a decision on his own, without resorting to discussions and approvals, but we must remember that the systematic ignoring of the opinions of subordinates leads to an authoritarian leadership style.

- Implementation management. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: to obtain a real effect, the decision made must be implemented. This is what is main task of this stage.

For the successful implementation of the solution, first of all, it is necessary to determine a set of works and resources and distribute them by performers and deadlines, i.e., to provide for who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this. If it's enough major decisions, this may require the development of a program to implement the solution. During the implementation of this plan, the leader must monitor how the decision is being implemented, if necessary, provide assistance and make certain adjustments.

- Monitoring and evaluation of results. Even after the decision is finally put into action, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, since it is still necessary to verify whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs the function of feedback in this process. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive.

It should not be forgotten that the solution is always temporary. The term of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Beyond its limits, the solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not contribute to solving the problem, but exacerbate it. In this regard, the main task of control is to timely identify the decreasing effectiveness of the solution and the need to correct it or make a new decision. In addition, the implementation of this stage is a source of accumulation and systematization of experience in decision-making.

The problem of controlling managerial decisions is very relevant, especially for large bureaucratic organizations.

You can make a lot of reasonable and useful decisions, but without a rationally organized system for monitoring the execution, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect (8, pp. 156-167).

In the process of solving complex problems in order to strengthen the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions, various scientific methods for their development and optimization can be used, which are usually divided into two main classes: modeling methods and methods of expert assessments.

- Modeling methods(also called operations research methods) are based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most common managerial tasks.

The development and optimization of a solution to a specific problem by modeling methods is a rather complicated procedure, which can be represented by a sequence of main stages:

Formulation of the problem;

Determination of the efficiency criterion of the analyzed operation;

Quantitative measurement of factors influencing the operation under study;

Construction of a mathematical model of the studied object (operation);

Quantitative solution of the model and finding the optimal solution;

Checking the adequacy of the model and the solution found for the analyzed situation;

Correction and updating of the model.

The number of possible concrete models is almost as great as the number of problems for which they are designed. Their detailed consideration is beyond the scope of this textbook and is the subject of a special academic discipline, so we will name only the most common types of models.

- Models of game theory. Most business transactions can be considered as actions performed in the face of opposition. Countermeasures should include, for example, factors such as an accident, fire, theft, strike, breach of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most widespread case of counteraction is competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. Obviously, the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any business. commercial organization. When making a decision, you should choose an alternative that allows you to reduce the degree of opposition, which in turn will reduce the degree of risk. This opportunity is provided to the manager by game theory, the mathematical models of which encourage him to analyze possible alternatives of his actions, taking into account the possible responses of competitors.

Initially developed for military-strategic purposes, game theory models are also used in business to predict the reaction of competitors to decisions made, for example, to changing prices, launching new types of goods and services, entering new market segments, etc.

So, when deciding to change the price level for their products, the company's management must predict the reaction and possible responses of the main competitors. And if, using the game theory model, it is established that, for example, competitors will not do the same when the price rises, the organization, in order not to fall into a disadvantageous position, must abandon this alternative and look for another solution to the problem.

However, it should be noted that these models are used quite rarely, since they are too simplified compared to real economic situations, which are so volatile that the forecasts obtained are not very reliable.

- Queue theory models or optimal service are used to find the optimal number of service channels for a certain level of demand for them. Situations where such models can be useful include, for example, determining the number of phone lines needed to answer customer calls; trolleybuses on the route, necessary so that large queues do not accumulate at stops; tellers in the bank so that customers do not have to wait until they can be taken care of, etc. The problem here is that additional service channels (more telephone lines, trolleybuses or bank employees) require additional resources, and their workload is uneven (excessive throughput ability in some periods of time and the appearance of queues in others). Therefore, it is necessary to find a solution that balances the additional costs of expanding service channels and the losses from their lack. Models of queuing theory just serve as a tool for finding such an optimal solution.

- Inventory management models. Any organization must maintain some level of inventory of its resources in order to avoid downtime or interruptions in technological processes and the sale of goods or services. For a manufacturing company, certain stocks of materials, components, finished products are needed, for a bank - cash, for a hospital - medicines, tools, etc. Maintaining a high level of stocks increases the reliability of the organization's functioning and eliminates losses associated with their shortage. On the other hand, the creation of stocks requires additional costs for storage, warehousing, transportation, insurance, etc. In addition, excess stocks bind working capital and prevent profitable investment of capital, for example, in securities or bank deposits.

Inventory management models allow you to find the optimal solution, i.e. a level of inventory that minimizes the cost of its creation and maintenance at a given level of continuity production processes.

- Linear Programming Models used to find the optimal solution in a situation of allocation of scarce resources in the presence of competing needs. For example, using a linear programming model, a production manager can determine the optimal production program, i.e., calculate how many products of each item should be produced to obtain the greatest profit with known volumes of materials and parts, the fund of equipment operation time and the profitability of each type of product.

Most of the optimization models developed for practical application are reduced to linear programming problems. However, taking into account the nature of the analyzed operations and the established forms of dependence of factors, models of other types can also be used: with nonlinear forms of dependence of the result of an operation on the main factors - models of nonlinear programming; if it is necessary to include the time factor in the analysis - dynamic programming models; with the probabilistic influence of factors on the result of the operation - models of mathematical statistics (correlation-regression analysis).

- Methods of expert assessments. When developing and substantiating many decisions that are completely or partially not amenable to quantitative analysis, methods of expert assessment bring a significant effect.

The essence of expert decision-making methods is to obtain answers from specialists to the questions posed to them. Information received from experts, in order to minimize errors and the influence of the subjective factor, is processed using special logical and mathematical procedures and converted into a form convenient for choosing a solution.

For the preparation and conduct of the examination, an organizational group is formed that provides conditions for the effective work of experts. The main tasks of this group:

Statement of the problem, determination of the purpose and objectives of the examination;

Development of the examination procedure;

Selection, testing of competence and formation of a group of experts;

Conducting a survey of experts and obtaining their assessments;

Processing, formalization and interpretation of the received information.

Among the methods of expert assessments, group survey methods are widely used and used in practice: the commission method, the brainstorming method, various modifications of the Delphi method. The great value of these methods lies in the fact that they reinforce the element of collegiality in the decision-making process. difficult decisions and, using intuition and the collective generation of ideas, allow you to find new, original solutions to problems that cannot be reached using only logical reasoning (9, pp. 58-64).

3. Financial and economic characteristics of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM"

Production Republican unitary enterprise"Gorynsky plant of building materials" (hereinafter PRUP "Gorynsky KSM") specializes in the production of ceramic bricks, put into operation in 1970 and was originally called the "Plant of ceramic drainage pipes".

In 1993, the reconstruction of the plant was completed with the use of brick-making equipment SMK-350. The project of the plant for the production of ceramic materials at the PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" was carried out by "Orgtekhstrom". The project is based on a complex of highly mechanized equipment SMK-350, reproduced in cooperation with Unimorando (Italy). The design capacity of the technological line is 60 million pieces. conditional brick per year.

As can be seen from fig. 3.1., the enterprise has a two-stage organizational structure. The head of the enterprise is the manager, who was appointed to the position by the Supreme Economic Court of the Republic of Belarus, the executive director is subordinate to him, to whom, in turn, all the employees of the enterprise are subordinate.

The main activity of the plant is the production of bricks and ceramic stones. The company has launched the following products:

- ceramic effective thickened front and ordinary brick;

- ceramic effective front and ordinary stones;

- brick ceramic corpulent unary;

- fired ground brick;

- ceramic stones with horizontal voids.

Fig 3.1. Organizational structure of management of PRUE "Gorynskiy KSM"

Data on the main economic performance indicators of PRUE "Gorynskiy KSM" in the period 2003-2005 are presented in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1. - Analysis of the dynamics of the main economic indicators of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.

Based on the data in Table 3.1. the following conclusion can be drawn: when comparing the performance indicators of the enterprise for 2005 with the same period in 2003, it was found that the enterprise received revenue in the amount of 2082 million rubles in 2005, which exceeds the revenue for 2003 by 4 times. This positive trend is observed with a slight increase in prices for the products of the plant (by 15.9% on average), which indicates the presence of demand for the products of the enterprise and the intensification of work on its sale.

Cost price products sold in 2005 amounted to 3683 million rubles, which exceeded the level of 2003 by 2557 million rubles, 2004 by 1615 million rubles ... indicates the impossibility of covering production costs by the established volume of sales and the need to increase output, including new types of it.

Based on the results of activities for 2005, the enterprise received a loss from sales in the amount of 1601 million rubles, which exceeds the level of 2003 and 2004 by 1012 and 623 million rubles. respectively. The loss was received by the plant due to the steady increase in the cost per unit of production, and is not justified low prices on products (state regulation of prices), one of the ways out of this situation is to increase the volume of production, which the plant cannot do yet for a number of reasons.

The security of the enterprise with labor resources and the efficiency of their use will be considered in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2. - Analysis of security and efficiency of use

labor resources PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" for 2003-2005.

After analyzing the above table, we can conclude that the average number of employees of the plant in 2005 amounted to 271 people, which exceeds the level of this indicator in 2003 by 61 people. and for 22 people. 2004 level. This increase was due to the commissioning of the clay dehydration shop, which led to the involvement of workers.

The average annual output per employee in 2005 amounted to 6361.6 thousand rubles, which is higher than the same indicator for 2003 by 3736.7 thousand rubles.

In 2005, the indicator of labor intensity of production amounted to 0.28 thousand man-hours, which is lower than the level of this indicator in 2004 by 0.08 thousand man-hours, which in turn indicates an increase in labor productivity.

One of the main reasons for the economic decline of the enterprise, its insolvency, is the lack of highly qualified personnel, namely, specialists in the brick-making industry.

During 2001-2005. along with the restoration of the number of employees, special attention was paid to the issues of training, retraining of personnel, and raising their professional level.

Analysis of the dynamics and structure of fixed assets of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" is presented using table 3.3.

Based on table 3.3. we can say that the company in 2005 has a huge value of fixed assets, over 82 billion rubles. Moreover, the largest share in the structure of fixed assets is occupied by buildings and structures (52.2%), machinery and equipment are in second place (42.5%).

Having examined this table in terms of dynamics, we see that the cost of fixed assets in 2005 amounted to 82513 million rubles, which is higher than the level of 2003 by 14941 million rubles ... This phenomenon occurred due to an increase in the cost of machinery and equipment in 2005 compared to 2003 for 7763 million rubles. (the commissioning of a new kiln fueled by natural gas) and the cost of buildings and structures for 6276 million rubles ... If we consider the changes in the cost of fixed assets in 2005 compared to 2004, we can conclude that the changes are not significant. So there was a decrease in the cost of fixed assets by 120 million rubles, due to a decrease in the cost of machinery and equipment by 131 million rubles and an increase in the item other types by 11 million rubles.

We will analyze the state of the production assets of the plant using table 3.4

Table 3.4. - Analysis of the state of production assets of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.

From table 3.4 we see that the company has fixed assets, the book value of which as of 01/01/2006 is 82.5 billion rubles.

The state of fixed assets is characterized by a high degree of accumulated depreciation (wear and tear) - 56.4% in 2005, 54% in 2004 and 52% in 2003. The renewal coefficient in 2003 was - 0.27, in 2004 - 0.22, in 2005 - 0.001, which is less than the level of this indicator in 2003 and 2004 by 0.269 and 0.219, respectively. This indicates that despite the crisis financial situation and the lack of own working capital, the enterprise is working on technical re-equipment. For 2003-2005 1491.6 million rubles were spent for the purpose of reconstruction and modernization of production, including 558.7 million rubles of own working capital.

The main costs for the production of the main product are presented in the following table.

Table 3.5. - Analysis of the dynamics and structure of production costs of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.

Based on the data in Table 3.5. Schematically, the structure of production costs will look as follows.

Rice. 3.2. The structure of production costs for PRUE "Gorynskiy KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.

This table shows that the largest share in the cost structure is occupied by material costs (37.1% in 2003, 42.1% in 2004 and 45.75% in 2005). The increase in this indicator is due to an increase in the level of prices for fuel and electricity, which occupy a significant share in the structure of material costs. Labor costs accounted for 23.6% in the cost structure in 2003, 25.1% in 2004 and 24.76% in 2005. The increase in this indicator is due to the increase in the number of employees of the plant, as well as the average monthly wage.

Let's consider one more auxiliary table that will characterize the financial aspects of the work of this plant in dynamics for 2003-2005.

Table 3.6. Grade financial position PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.

The current liquidity ratio characterized the provision of the organization with working capital to carry out its activities and the timely payment of urgent obligations. As the data in Table 1.4.7 show, this coefficient remains unchanged during 2003 and 2004 and amounts to 0.3, and in 2005 this coefficient decreased by 0.1 and it amounted to 0.2, which is less than the standard value established for industry building materials. This value of the coefficient confirms that, despite the fact that the enterprise is operating, it has insufficient provision with its own working capital and is not able to repay urgent obligations in a timely manner.

The absolute liquidity ratio in 2005 was 0.003, which is less than the normative value of 0.2. This, in turn, negatively affects the solvency of the enterprise.

The coefficient of security with own working capital shows what share of all working capital the enterprise covers at the expense of its own working capital. This coefficient for the analyzed periods has a negative value and is below the standard (0.15). This indicator characterizes the insufficient availability of the enterprise's own working capital necessary for financial stability.

Thus, the analysis of the financial condition and solvency of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" found that, despite the unsatisfactory financial condition, the company has positive trends to reduce insolvency by increasing the volume of output and sales of products, reducing actual production costs with a further, phased exit for effective financial and economic activity.

4. Technology of making a managerial decision on the example of the head of the PRUE "Gorynsky KSM"

Let's resolve the situation using the example of the head of the construction organization PRUE "Gorynsky Building Materials Plant".

When checking the activities of this enterprise by the control and auditing service, a violation was revealed regarding the maintenance of two official cars at once, which, in turn, contradicts the current legislation.

To get out of this situation, the manager will make a decision based on judgments - that is, he will weigh all the negative and positive aspects and choose the best alternative (option).

The main steps in resolving this situation were as follows:

1. problem analysis. The leader in this case identified the essence of the problem. In this case, the manager saw the essence of the problem in the fact that the maintenance of the second company car is prohibited by law and the costs of its maintenance (depreciation, gasoline, spare parts, etc.) significantly worsen the financial condition of the enterprise, because. the amount of costs directly falls on non-operating expenses, which reduces the profit of the enterprise by the amount of costs.

Analysis of the problem, in turn, decided the essence of the decision. In this case, the goal is to get out of this situation in such a way that it does not contradict the law and does not cause damage to the enterprise in the form of a fine. The head in this case does not see any restrictions for making this decision.

2. Identification and evaluation of alternatives, choice of solution.

Since the manager has little time to formulate all possible alternatives, he limited himself to only two:

1) transfer the second technological machine to the category of a working one, thereby leaving only one, which will not contradict the current legislation.

2) leave two cars, but take the costs of maintaining the second one to your salary (i.e., deduct from your salary).

The evaluation of the first alternative assumes the fact that if only one technological machine is left, then the lead transport engineer will have to travel to work by bus.

And since he lives in another area, 30 km from this enterprise, and there are no morning shuttle buses every day, the employee cannot arrive at work on time (but only by 10 o’clock), all the more he will not come to morning planning meetings, where they decide the main problems and tasks for today. The inconvenience of getting to work can be a reason to look for work in your area. And the enterprise cannot lose such an experienced worker, because he hardly had to convince him to work here in a construction company. This person is disciplined. His subordinates respect him and carry out all his production orders. He is a very knowledgeable and intelligent professional. His loss for the enterprise will be a great loss, which cannot be allowed.

The second alternative involves incurring large expenses for the maintenance of the second car, thereby depriving yourself of the shortfall in wages. This, in turn, will worsen the financial condition of the head. But, in another turn, it will provide an opportunity to keep and secure such a competent specialist at your enterprise.

3) Choosing a rational solution. Since this head of the organization, when choosing the right decision, is guided by a focus on business, as well as on personal relationships with this specialist, he accepted the second option, sacrificing his salary for the sake of production. At the same time, he created an order for the enterprise, in which he stipulated his decision, i.e. in this case, the leader found a way out of this situation on his own, without the use of anyone's help (see Appendix No. 1).

Let's consider another, more complex example of making a managerial decision.

In accordance with the Law of the Republic of Belarus “On State Forecasting and Programs for the Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus”, all enterprises of any form of ownership annually develop business plans for an investment project for the modernization and reconstruction of existing production. So, PRUP "Gorynsky plant of building materials" faced the current situation.

In this case, the organizational decision will be programmed type. This is evidenced by the fact that a sequence of actions takes place to achieve a certain result. In this case, the number of possible options is limited (here, the main indicators for compiling this business plan are the volume of production with the existing production capacity and the number of purchased and modernized equipment). It is these indicators that will be decisive for drawing up an investment development plan. Here a mathematical problem will be undertaken, which will give an answer: at what volume of production will the greatest profit be obtained for further reconstruction and modernization of the main production. In this programmed decision are already programmed procedures for applying certain actions to resolve the problem that have taken place in the practice of the organization and the manager who makes the decision. For the task, standard methods and appropriate procedures for their resolution will be applied. In this particular case, the manager of the plant will not have to spend much effort and time on the methodology for making a managerial decision.

The manager, according to the old scheme, issues an order for the enterprise to establish a working group to develop a business plan for 2006, for 2006-2010, which will include all the necessary specialists. Thus, this decision is correct, since in past years the same scheme of actions gave a positive result (see Appendix No. 2).

However, on January 13, 2006, the Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus “On debt restructuring and some measures for the financial recovery of unprofitable state organizations” was issued. This list of unprofitable organizations of the Ministry of Architecture and Construction of the Republic of Belarus also includes PRUE Gorynsky KSM.

Implementation of this decree assumes a complete deferral of accounts payable, formed on January 1, 2006 for 5 years (this debt at the plant as of 01.01.2006 amounted to 4522 million rubles). The Decree makes it possible to subsequently write off the existing accounts payable after 3 years - by 50%, after 5 years - by 100%, if the following payments are repaid monthly within 5 years:

1. gas and electricity;

2. Wages and taxes on wages;

3. To the Fund for Social Protection of the Population in the form of 35% of the wage bill;

4. bank loans and interest on their use;

5. representative office of Belgosstrakh;

6. current tax payments.

Thus, the implementation of this Decree should significantly affect the financial condition of the enterprise, since by the end of the five-year period, with the monthly full payment of the above current payments, the entire amount of accounts payable will be written off to the enterprise.

In this case, the manager will face a non-programmed solution - that is, the way to solve this problem is new, never seen before in practice.

In order to solve the task, the manager will need to spend much more time and knowledge to make the right managerial decision.

First, it is necessary to collect all available information about this Presidential Decree. carefully study it and understand all its subtleties.

Secondly, to convey to each interested person that the enterprise is given such a chance and should not be missed.

Thirdly, to familiarize each employee with the innovation and discuss it at the meeting.

In this example, the main elements of the management decision-making process were the following:

Diagnostics of the problem and setting goals for the decision to be made;

Formulation of restrictions and criteria for assessing the choice of alternatives when making a decision;

Identification of alternative options for a possible solution, their evaluation;

Choosing a rational solution.

Problem Diagnosis defines the essence of the problem. The entry into this Decree entails the search and use of new opportunities. determination of the essence of the problem that arose made it possible to formulate a specific goal of making a decision - by all means to enter into this Decree of the President and in 5 years to improve their difficult financial condition in the form of repayment of existing accounts payable.

Formulating Constraints and Criteria. To implement this problem, possible solutions may not be realistic. For example, an enterprise can pay monthly only the following current payments: wages and taxes on wages in the amount of 1%. 4% and income tax; gas and electricity; loans. And due to a lack of funds, tax liabilities and 35% of the tax in the Social Security Fund remain unpaid. This amount is approximately 120-130 million rubles a month. Thus, the main limitations in this case are the incomplete utilization of production capacities, the high defectiveness of manufactured products and large stocks of illiquid goods in the warehouses of the enterprise. Therefore, the main criterion, in this case, will be a monthly increase in revenue at the enterprise by 120-130 million rubles. in every way to be found.

Definition of alternatives. For this purpose, the manager conducts an in-depth analysis of the current situation, and also considers in the future all the consequences if nothing is done. Managers have identified a number of alternatives, namely:

1. collection of receivables in full, shipment of products only on a prepaid basis, sale of illiquid stocks of inventory items at contractual prices, increase in the volume of services provided to the population, write-off of equipment and components that have become unusable with posting of scrap and negotiable assemblies and parts from their subsequent implementation, reduction of defective products. In her opinion, this will give an additional inflow of money in the amount of 120-130 million rubles. monthly;

2. increase in the volume of production, production of new types of products that meet the requirements of demand, the introduction of new technologies to reduce the energy intensity and material intensity of the production process (this will make it possible to reduce the consumption of electricity and gas for the production of products and will lead to a decrease in payment for consumed electricity and gas).

An assessment of the two alternatives shows that for the implementation of the first alternative, the enterprise needs very little time (to post additional announcements about the sale of products and the provision of additional services to the population), the collection of receivables can be carried out with the help of the court or the tax authorities in terms of the arrest of the current account, the delivery of existing scrap metal can also be implemented in the near future, etc. That is, the implementation of the first alternative requires a small amount of time and additional funds and costs.

The second alternative can only be implemented in the long term, since the release of new products requires a significant period of time, and the introduction of new technologies involves a significant waste of time and money. An increase in the volume of production at this enterprise is currently not possible, since resources are limited, and also due to the high wear and tear of equipment (up to 80-90% of the wear of its active part), which reduces the full load of the tunnel kiln.

Choosing a Rational Solution. Having assessed the possible alternatives, the manager of the PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" chooses the first one, guided by the fact that its implementation will be started immediately, since the time for entry into the Presidential Decree is only 1 month. Therefore, this management decision is currently made correctly (see Appendix 3).

In the future, in order to implement the Decree, the second alternative will also be put into practice, which will make it possible to maximize revenue and thereby repay its current obligations. This decision is based on judgment.

If management decisions are classified according to their characteristics, we get the following:

1. The degree of recurrence of the problem. When it came to drawing up a business plan for 2006 and the five-year period, the management decision was traditional, that is, it has repeatedly met earlier in the practice of the manager. That is, the manager only made a choice from the alternatives already used earlier. And when it came to the use of the second technological machine and the implementation of Presidential Decree No. 27, the managerial decision took the form atypical, since the search for a solution was associated with the generation of new alternatives.

2. Significance of the goal. In all cases of making a managerial decision, its goal was of a strategic nature, since the decision-making pursues its own, independent goal.

3. Sphere of influence. In the first example, the result of the decision affected one division of the enterprise (the accounting service, which will monitor travel expenses on a monthly basis and withhold its amount from the manager’s salary), so the decision can be considered local. In the following examples, the managerial decision takes the form global, because it is applied with the aim of influencing the work of the entire organization as a whole.

4. Duration of implementation. In all the examples given, the duration of implementation is long-term, since the results of the implementation of the adopted management decisions are removed for several years.

5. The nature of the information used. All decisions made are deterministic decisions, since they are made under conditions of certainty, since the manager has almost complete and reliable information regarding the problems being solved, which allowed him to know exactly the result of each of the alternative choices.

It should be noted that in the practice of making managerial decisions of this manager, documentedness is inherent, i.e. fixedness of decisions made in the form of issuing orders. This makes it possible to monitor the progress of the execution of instructions, and, in case of non-compliance, punish the guilty person.

Conclusions and offers

The purpose of this course work was to study the essence of management decisions and the process of implementation in the enterprise.

When writing it, the following main tasks were performed:

- the theoretical aspect of the essence of the category "managerial decisions" was investigated;

The main stages, models and methods of the process of making managerial decisions have been studied;

The process of making a managerial decision was analyzed on the example of the head (anti-crisis manager) of a construction organization.

In the process of studying this topic, many definitions of the essence of the category of management decisions were given, however, in my opinion, a more accurate definition is the following:

Management decision - this is the choice of an alternative, carried out by the head within the framework of his official powers and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization.

Decision-making technology should be understood as the composition and sequence of procedures that lead to solving the problems of the organization, in combination with methods for developing and optimizing alternatives.

The main stages of the management decision-making process were:

Analysis of the situation;

Problem identification;

Definition of selection criteria;

Development of alternatives;

Choice of an alternative;

Approval of the decision;

Implementation management;

Monitoring and evaluation of results .

In the course work, the methodologies for making managerial decisions by the anti-crisis manager of the PRUE "Goryn Plant of Building Materials" were given. For comparison, an example was given of making a traditional management decision (that is, developing a business plan for the five-year period and 2006). When making this decision, the manager applied standard methods and appropriate procedures for its resolution. In this particular case, the manager of the plant did not have to spend much effort and time on the methodology for making a managerial decision. According to the old scheme, he issued an order for the enterprise to establish a working group to develop a business plan for 2006, for 2006-2010, which included all the necessary specialists.

The next two examples were of a non-traditional type, that is, a non-programmed solution. In this case, the way to solve these problems is new, never seen before in practice. And in order to solve the task, the manager will need to spend much more time and knowledge to make the right managerial decision.

It should be noted that the manager, when making a managerial decision, applies all of the above steps. It is also important that when making managerial decisions, he is guided by judgments and scientific knowledge and rich industrial experience. Therefore, the decisions made are always correct, which allows thereby gaining credibility among the employees of this enterprise.

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