According to the company's observation, the number of checks in the e-commerce segment decreased by 20%, but the amount of the check at the same time increased by 16%.

Fear of currency fluctuations

“In our opinion, this may indicate that the Russians are afraid of further currency appreciation and price increases, so they invest in durable goods, or purchase items that they have been putting off for a long time,” Yulia Nosova, head of Atol Online, points out. .

Atol analyzed the average daily dynamics of financial turnover and the number of checks connected to the online cash register service, and also singled out the average check for 2 periods: from July 29 to August 8 inclusive and from August 9 to 19, that is, 11 days before and after announcement of new economic sanctions.

This is not the first time such a situation has arisen. So, each sharp fall of the ruble led to the fact that the Russians massively began to buy expensive household appliances. The last such boom was observed, according to data, in April, when sanctions were imposed by the US Department of Justice against several Russian companies and businessmen. Then the number of clicks of online stores increased by 15%.

At the same time, the managing partner does not see the consequences of sanctions in Athol's data, but believes that this is a consequence of a normal seasonal decline.

"We believe that this is a normal, absolutely traditional seasonal decline in the second half of August. We observe a similar situation every year, any business has a slight drop in sales. They will drop until about the 20th of September. , buying exactly the same goods, they spend more, since the cost of these goods has increased in ruble terms by 8% over the past 3 weeks," he shared with DP.

Technique suffers

Players in the online trading market agree on one thing. Currency fluctuations are primarily reflected in the prices of equipment. For example, those that sell clothes, shoes and accessories, on the contrary, noticed an increase in the specified period.

"At this time, the company's turnover increased by 95% compared to last year, and the number of orders by 77% and 83% compared to the same periods in 2017," the company said.

Alexey Bannikov, CEO of "", believes that in the event of problems with the ruble exchange rate, online retailers can do nothing but wait until the situation stabilizes.

“For the time being, it can be assumed that prices will rise, and many will prefer to change the price of already purchased goods, just like new ones. This is not the most effective method, since a period of instability no longer leads to a sharp increase in sales. Buyers have learned to wait out such moments, so as not to be at a loss,” he said.

He also noted that there was no serious decline in sales in Fotosklad, but possible reason this - price policy companies and the fact that buyers are already accustomed to the instability of the ruble exchange rate, so they try to prepare for large purchases in advance, taking into account possible changes in the prices of goods.

“There is nothing surprising in the fact that even the slightest fluctuations in exchange rates affect appliances and electronics almost immediately. sharp growth, since it is obvious that this will immediately lead to a decline in sales. We try to sell everything that is possible at the old price," the businessman shared.

The Russian Association for Electronic Communications () told DP that they expect a decline in trade in the near future, but now, in their opinion, it is still insignificant.

Oleg Pchelnikov, business director of the "Product" direction of the company "" notes that a sharp increase in prices and, as a result, a decline in demand can only be observed in those online stores that do not have own warehouse.

"Vendors and manufacturers have trade balances imported or produced domestically on old market conditions. Change occurs cautiously and often gradually, in stages, in anticipation that the pendulum may swing the other way. Retailers usually keep stock for several months of trading in warehouses. The quick reaction occurs mainly in online stores without their own warehouse, for low-margin goods directly pegged to the dollar with short - mostly air - logistics. The share of such goods in the total volume of online commerce does not exceed 10-15%," he said.

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How detrimental the "Amazon effect" will be for traditional retailers.

For a small group of hedge funds that bet on the fall in US real estate, financial crisis turned into a goldmine, bringing unheard of profits. Some investors believe that the next big bear will be in retail.

Americans are rapidly shifting to online shopping. Therefore, retail in the United States is going through hard times: according to Standard & Poor's, in 2017, 10 retail companies have already declared bankruptcy. Even the Sears department store chain, founded in 1886, which used to be one of the best in the country, is on the verge of collapse. .

“In our view, this downgrade could be even worse than expected,” said Stephen Ketchum, head of hedge fund Sound Point Capital, which has more than $13 billion in assets. - Go to the Amazon website and type "batteries" into the search bar. What you will see is just the tip of the iceberg. And Titanic is retail.”

The steady growth of online sales poses a serious threat to US shopping centers, developers and investors who have invested in shares and bonds famous brands. Urban Outfitters CEO Richard Hein told analysts on a teleconference that the main problem is the huge oversupply of built retail space, coupled with the increased popularity of e-commerce.

“It created a bubble, and like real estate, that bubble burst,” Gein said. - We are now seeing the results of this: shops are closing, rental prices are falling. For the foreseeable future, the trend will continue and the rate of decline may even increase.”

All this has far-reaching consequences. Credit Suisse estimates that 8,640 stores could close in the US in 2017, with a cumulative trading area which is 13.65 million sq.m. This is more than the number of stores that closed after economic crisis and the collapse of the dot-coms. The decline also affected the generally prosperous market work force in the United States, the retail industry saw an average of 9,000 layoffs per month this year, according to the Department of Labor, while last year the number of jobs in this area increased by an average of 17,000 per month.

Empty mall spaces and run-down department stores are just the most visible effects of what analysts have dubbed the "Amazon effect." We are talking about shopping not in real retail premises, but in a virtual space occupied by companies such as the online retail giant owned by Jeff Bezos. However, this is most likely only the first stage of a process that has begun, and some investors predict that the departure of buyers to the Internet will have a painful effect in all areas of commerce.

Byron Carlock, head of American real estate at PwC, says: “The site won't give you goosebumps - physical stores still have an advantage here. Also, I don't see consumers cutting costs, and a good retailer needs to understand that."

Yes, the process is slow right now, but if American consumers, spoiled by low interest rates and modest unemployment, fall prey to another shock, it could accelerate dramatically. For example (though unlikely), if Fed will aggressively lower rates and push the economy into recession, retail will suffer on two fronts at once: servicing loans will become more expensive, and consumers will buy less.

The impact of retail sector problems on the structure of the US labor market is likely to be serious: according to Goldman Sachs, online stores need only 0.9 employees per 1 million dollars of sales (traditional stores - 3.5 employees), so by the end of the year the industry may lose about 100 thousand jobs.

At first glance, this is not much, because in total about 16 million Americans are employed in trade, but this is only the beginning.

Meji warns: "The social and economic consequences of these processes will be enormous - we will soon see major changes in the social fabric."

Prepared by Evgenia Sidorova

There is a revival in wide retail. The consumer is stocking up on New Year's assortment on the eve of the holidays. However, this picture is not as rosy as it might seem at first glance. Prices are rising, purchasing power is falling, and it will not get better - these are the forecasts of the participants in the key link in the trade chain - distributors.

Karolina Kuznetsova, regional manager of the trading company "Global Trading": “Even compared to 2016, sales have declined. Of course, before the New Year, our customers try to buy goods, but such large warehouse stock, as before the crisis, do not. Moreover, many of those who used to buy 20 tons each, today take 2-3 tons of goods, respectively, we had to stop cooperation with such customers, which became unprofitable for us. We work at very low prices and at the same time give a large volume, which means that the priority is the customer who is able to pay for the whole container.

Before the New Year, there is traditionally a growing demand for canned fruits and vegetables, fish, cereals, primarily rice. But, again, customers buy a little more product than during the year - maybe one percent.

Evgenia Dodulina, Commercial Director trading company "Prodservice": “We specialize in the meat trade - this is a product that, in principle, is always present on the consumer’s table, no matter what the year is, and for the vast majority, holidays are unthinkable without it. But I can’t talk about the New Year’s surge, which we expected and which was always present in sales during this period.”

Natalya Merzlyakova, head of the Eleon trading company: “This has never happened to us - even in the last crisis of 2008-2009. Compared to 2012-2014. Demand has doubled. If in 2012 before the holidays I could not leave work for a minute, today I have a lot of free time. And every year sales are getting weaker.”

The economy must be economical

The decline in sales is observed along the entire length of the distribution chain - from manufacturers to retail shelves, and this trend has been going on for almost four years. Experts say: the consumer continues to become poor, sales continue to fall, and accordingly, the market is being rebuilt towards the economy segment.

Karolina Kuznetsova: “The product range has changed quite a lot. The demand for the economy segment is growing; during the year, retail chains for the most part requested it. So, for example, one of our customers left canned saury of the middle price segment for economy. Therefore, the manufacturer also adapts to the market. Of course, Dobroflot will not produce very low-cost products under its own brand, but today some new, cheap brands are being created - for example, Neptune, that is, manufacturers bring such goods into a separate segment and every year they try to expand the line.

As the economy continues to slow down, the assortment of general retailers would become more democratic if the delivery of products was not marked by an increase in Russian Railways tariffs.

“Our products have risen in price due to the increase in Russian Railways tariffs - by about 3 rubles per kg,” notes Evgenia Dodulina.

At the same time, according to experts, the meat industry was affected by the rejection of Brazilian imports. From December 1, Rosselkhoznadzor temporarily restricted the import of pork and beef products from Brazil - the department found a prohibited growth stimulant - ractopamine in the goods. But distributors and retailers believe that this ban rests on big politics. And, as was already the case with the closure of Turkish, American import routes, someone's business tied to Brazilian products suffered. But a number of Russian manufacturers received winning positions.

2018 will be marked by austerity, experts say — even more stringent, given that the costs of logistics, utilities, etc. are growing, while the real incomes of the population are falling.

Evgenia Dodulina: “Look around and you will see that the market has already changed. Companies began to save, and to a large extent this affects personnel policy. Orientation - to more qualified personnel, and it is important that these personnel are engaged in work for 8 hours of working time. Weak companies closed down, strong ones, on the contrary, began to think about how to develop further. In the Far East, such budget chains with reduced prices as "Radius" and the Novosibirsk chain "Svetofor" appeared. Remember, before the crisis there were none.”

The market will no longer be the same, at least in 2018-2019. - exactly, experts warn, despite the promising news that "the Central Bank believed in the future of the Russian economy." And while Elvira Nibiullina says that "the economy is stable, it can and should grow faster," the consumer buys the cheapest champagne for the New Year's table, since today he has a variety of choices.

“The most budgetary champagne today can be purchased in the region of 150 rubles. Mostly sparkling wines Russian production",- He speaks Olga Shilova, Deputy General Director of ZAO Pacific Food Company.

In obese years 2012-2014. there was no such range. Today he appeared, in accordance with the Italian proverb, which in the Russian version sounds like "Roberto loved olives, and now he loves potatoes on onion gravy."

Marina Ostanina, General Director of the trading company "Rusimport - Primorye": “We note with regret that New Year's budgets are being cut. Corporate events are becoming more budgetary, and in many companies they are simply cancelled. In addition, it cannot be discounted that if earlier it was a widespread tradition to celebrate the holiday at home, with the family, today many of our citizens have changed priorities and fly to warm countries, which means they are taking with them money that they could spend here. Compared to last year, the demand for new Year gifts, toys. The same applies to alcohol. Of course, some of the stable consumers remain, but as there was a 20% drop in sales 2 years ago, these figures remain approximately at the same level. People have reduced the cost of consuming alcohol.”

Julia PIVNENKO

The Central Bank makes one clumsy attempt after another to stop the rapid fall of our national currency. Every meager success of our financial regulator is followed by a resounding defeat. No one believes in the “ghostly” rebounds of the ruble anymore. People are already thinking that no matter how the ruble falls even lower, but it seems that there is no bottom to the abyss where the ruble falls.

The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, urged to look for positive aspects in such a rapid depreciation of the ruble and an increase in the refinancing rate. According to her, the positive moment for the population is that deposit rates in banks will increase and it will be beneficial for people to keep money on deposits, and not shift to a growing dollar or euro. In this story, it's a little confusing where people will get so much money that they want to carry it to banks. Prices in rubles are rising and it looks like this is just the beginning. Real purchasing power is falling, in this case it is not clear where the population will get extra money for deposits. It would be nice to support those who have already taken a loan. With an increase in the cost of food, clothing, and other things, the loan is unlikely to decrease, and there will most likely be even less money left to pay for loans already taken. And what rate can banks offer on deposits? Hardly comparable to the fall of the ruble, when the dollar grows by 10% in one day.

There are not many sectors of the economy in Russia that show a certain growth and are stable for long periods. Retail is one of those industries. It is worth noting that wholesale and retail trade, according to Rosstat data for 2013, is 18% of Russia's GDP, i.e. The industry is extremely important to our economy.

The current fluctuations in the exchange rate, a sharp increase in the refinancing rate, a decrease in purchasing power ... What can be positive for retail trade in current situation?

“Of course, now the economic situation in the country, including retail trade, is very tense. In general, businesses feel a lot of nervousness due to unpredictability. In fact, in less than a year, the basic economic indicators have changed dramatically - purchasing power has decreased and the national currency has depreciated twice. There is something to be nervous about. But there are paradoxes in the market that we cannot explain. Our company is engaged in the design and construction of stores, our business is very sensitive to the state of the retail market, because. if retail is doing badly, then first of all they freeze the opening of new stores. We do not yet see this in our business, there are still many orders,” Dmitry Akulov, Deputy General Director of Project Line.

It is worth decomposing the retail business into components in order to understand that the situation in the industry can become critical with the euro exchange rate for 100 rubles.

Retail is heterogeneous, each has its own problems and opportunities in a crisis. Grocery retailers, DIY, electronics and other "anchor" mall tenants tend to have very different rental conditions from smaller stores, which shopping malls majority. The anchor tenant has the opportunity to receive from the shopping complex better offers according to the price, the location of his store, therefore, in a crisis, they behave somewhat differently.

In the current situation, this leads to fantastic costs on the part of the tenant. A happy exception are some shopping complexes in the regions and MEGA, where it is possible to conclude an agreement in rubles.

Until now, not a single large shopping complex has made serious concessions to the business of fixing the exchange rate or converting rental payments into rubles. According to the portal, one of the oldest shopping centers in Moscow in the middle of the year gave quarterly rental discounts, agreeing on a fixed exchange rate for a number of tenants, but only until the New Year.

Small calculations show that if the most common format of a clothing store has an area of ​​​​approximately 100-150 sq.m, and rent payments range from $2,500 to $5,000 per square meter per year, it is not difficult to calculate that at a rate of 60 rubles per dollar, the rent per month will be from 1,200,000 to 2,500,000 rubles per store. It is believed that rent should be no more than 15% of the store's turnover, that is, at this rate, the store should make revenue from 8,000,000 to 16,000,000 per month, and this is unattainable for 80% of stores.

The conclusion suggests itself: if the shopping centers do not meet the needs of the tenants, they will have to close a lot outlets in the mall. This will be a blow to the owners of shopping complexes themselves - it will be difficult to find a replacement in the current market conditions.

For the sake of fairness, it must be said that shopping malls themselves often have foreign currency obligations to their creditors.

During this difficult period, banks should turn their attention to all the players who participate in retail business. Not only for developers, but also for retailers who, by paying rent, help the developer pay off loans taken for the construction of shopping malls..

The scale of closures associated with prohibitive rent is scary to even imagine, and after all, people working in trading companies, which will certainly fall under the reduction.

A letter is circulating on the market, where the tenants of Golden Babylon complain about unbearable lease conditions and are going to create an initiative group to jointly fight the owner of Golden Babylon, Immofinanz, up to civil disobedience. In case of refusal to make concessions, tenants are invited not to pay rent, to arrange a mass strike. A similar letter calling for the creation of a group of rate negotiators was sent to the tenants of the Metropolis shopping center. Restaurateurs - members of the Federation of Restaurateurs and Hoteliers of Russia have agreed on joint actions against the owners of the premises - they propose to boycott those premises that were abandoned by the tenant due to the intransigence of the landlord in the cost of rent.

The government has proposed standard contract apartment rentals. Why not regulate the commercial space rental market? It should be noted that the owners of the premises also insist on the indexation of foreign exchange contracts. 3-5-7-10% - this seemingly reasonable level of indexation is possible in developed markets that do not experience such dramatic falls in the national currency. Moreover, the underlying mechanism continuous improvement rent is a driver of inflation in Russia. According to the portal, many retailers want more government involvement in the regulation of the commercial space rental market, up to the introduction of a standard commercial space lease agreement.

“The merger of Russian retailers seems unlikely, since, in fact, it neither solves the problems associated with an increase in rental rates and purchase prices, nor does it affect their root cause - the fall of the ruble due to changes in exchange rates. At the same time, in fact, Russian retailers are already part of the RSPP, which can defend their interests,” says Yuri Frolishchev, head of the VirtDress Internet project.

Another problem is that retailers of foreign brands will be forced to raise prices themselves, as Supplier prices are pegged to either the dollar or the euro. The expenditure part grows with the entrepreneur and is invested in the price of the goods that the consumer pays. Can you imagine that Levi's jeans, which until recently cost about 5,000 rubles, will now cost more than 10,000 rubles? People are simply not psychologically ready for such prices, and their salaries do not increase from the fall of the ruble. Therefore, they will buy less.

With a reduction in purchases, those retailers who focus on the sale of past collections will also suffer. Their business is arranged in such a way that they buy unsold goods in Russia from companies at a big discount and then sell it in their stores. For example, the Surname brand works according to this principle. These companies, with small purchases of those retailers from whom they buy goods, run the risk of being left without a sufficient amount of goods, because. less will be purchased next season. Large Internet players such as KupiVIP will also suffer, which may also face shortages. a wide range goods due to small purchases from those who supply them with goods.

Most retailers are heavily indebted for goods, most often they refinance under new product and thus increase momentum, tk. the cost of the goods is the lion's share in the price of the goods and for the turnover you need to take a loan. The increased refinancing rate puts an end to these hopes of retailers. In addition to the problems listed above, they add the problem of unavailability of credit. And before, our loans were with exorbitant interest, but now they can fly into space after the dollar and the euro and become completely unavailable for business.

Retailers announced in the autumn that they were reducing the number of planned store openings for 2015. With such market turbulence, many market players will prefer to cut even low-margin businesses and wait for the situation to develop, and even more so to slow down their investment plans.

“In February-March, networks that do not have inventory will significantly increase prices - by about 70%. A decline in sales is expected, there will be no March surge, which is usually characterized by increased demand among buyers. Quantitatively, sales will lose more than 50% compared to last year. For retailers, the outlook for the next two years is very poor. Only about 70% of the market players in this segment will be able to survive the crisis,” says Margarita Zrozhevskaya, Chief Operating Officer company "Your".

“Of course, changes in the income and solvency of the population affect the dynamics and situation in the consumer market, since, in fact, a consumer can only buy a product if there is effective demand, that is, it is banal if he has extra money. Therefore, the current situation will lead to the fact that the Russians will spend less, mainly buying next year only what they need. Although before the New Year we should just expect an increase in sales growth, because, realizing the high probability of an increase in prices for imported goods: cars, household appliances, clothes, bags, perfumes, the consumer seeks to buy them at the old price, ”Yuri Frolishchev believes.

"We see in the future economic changes opportunities for our business. Our model is an online marketplace with strong teams of buyers operating in European countries (Germany, France, Italy), which allows us to work with international fashion players and post offers from about 60 warehouses from 10 countries of the world on the KupiVIP website every day. These are about 1500 suppliers and 2000 warehouses from different countries monthly. In addition, Russian retailers are now increasingly turning to the help of discount players to sell off their stock balances. Due to rising rental rates, it is now easier for traditional players to turn to online channels that can quickly solve warehouse problems. And the principle of sales at KupiVIP - short-term promotions lasting 2-3 days, allows for short term sell such a quantity of products that an offline channel would sell for several weeks, ”says Vladimir Kholyaznikov, CEO KupiVIP.

“We carry out quite a lot of projects, and in different sectors, from luxury to mass market, over 160 projects have already been completed this year, i.e. on such a large number of projects, it is possible to derive some patterns for the market as a whole. According to our observation, the best way foreign companies feel themselves - they get a significant benefit from the fall of the ruble, because. their capital cost of opening a store in euro terms has fallen sharply, and prices for construction market until they responded. Prices for services and materials in construction and design are rising, but still not as rapidly as the ruble is falling. The crisis will end sooner or later, and with it the period low prices to open a store, so strong players use it to the maximum. The window of opportunity has its own duration, market professionals are sensitive and instantly use the situation to their advantage,” notes Dmitry Akulov.

“Looking to the future, the best distribution option is to work with Russian companies that are also producers of goods themselves. Work with Russian manufacturers implies no additional costs associated with customs clearance, transportation, changes in exchange rates, which allows you to reduce the purchase price and thus reduce the margin on the product, not only maintaining the amount of profit, but also increasing it, since a lower retail price will attract already large quantity buyers”, - Yuri Frolishchev is sure.

This is not the first crisis that our economy and our retailers are experiencing. But for many, this may indeed be the last. The previous one was not so noticeable, since over the past 5 years, rent has grown by 30-50% only due to indexation, plus the growth of the currency was not so significant.
Now it can be predicted that the mass sales held on the eve of the New Year, plus the restriction of lending by banks, will eventually result in a lack of sales in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2015.

“Purchasing power is falling, rents are rising, and the Russian retailers are having a tough time. If there is an increased demand for electronics, then there is no such excitement in the fashion industry. Many will not withstand the pressure of the market and, as a result, there will be many vacant areas that we once could not fill for certain reasons. Inventive Stores Retail Group will develop in a crisis, we see for ourselves that against the backdrop of a crisis, you can always extract positive moments,” says Denis Stenko, Development Director trading network, Inventive Retail Group.

Shopping as a cultural phenomenon may not be. Various trade marks have their audience and, accordingly, the economy in each city of Russia or area of ​​the metropolis (Moscow or St. Petersburg). There is an opinion that people will go online to shop where goods can be found cheaper, but the Internet is not a 100% replacement for a traditional store for a huge range of brands or product categories. For a blouse you need to go to the store.

Sometimes it seems that it is better to shoot Russian retail so that he does not suffer in a crisis. Retailers develop their business in spite of everything: taxes, the economic situation, sanctions - there is no end to these problems. But the past tense shows that the creativity of our people, patience and diligence truly work wonders. Everyone is coming out of the crisis stronger - this is the law, so it will be this time.

« New Year It will be difficult, but six years ago, in 2008, we already experienced something similar, memories are fresh in all companies and all companies that have gone through the previous crisis have a plan of action in such a situation, recalls Dmitry Akulov. - It will be hard, but interesting! As they say, not the first time. Happy New Year everyone!”