Since the creation of the Internet, the project has been rapidly developing and spreading around the world, penetrating into all spheres of public life and radically changing our way of life, search and work with information.

It is easy to draw conclusions about the trends in the spread of the network, if back in 2000 the number of Internet users was approximately 360 million, and today there are already 2.7 billion users in the world.

Among the many likely trends for the future of the Internet, experts believe that the most important and pronounced of them are the following:

• 1. Global Network Management will remain the same.
• 2. The greatest growth in the Internet market will occur outside of high-income and advanced economies.
• 3. QWERTY-keyboard will cease to be the main interface of human interaction with the Internet.
• 4. The fixed fee for access services will be replaced by completely different schemes for monetizing participation in the virtual life of the World Wide Web.

One of social factors is the growing up of the "Internet Generation" - teenagers who have been familiar with the Internet since childhood. In this regard, their model of behavior and socialization will differ from the current one.

In addition, scientists and various analytical agencies identify four most possible scenarios for the development of the future of the Internet.

The first of them is that the Internet will "grow" around the world and reach the most remote corners of the globe, and access to the network will be carried out mainly from gadgets (mobile devices, tablets).

According to the second scenario, cybercrime will reach the highest level, creating a threat to the Internet market, which will lead to the creation of network analogues that provide absolute security for a fee.

The third scenario involves the development of events in the economy, according to which some countries will be forced to adopt a policy of protectionism, which will “fragment” the Internet and lead to a slowdown in the rate of introduction of new technologies and the speed of the network.

The fourth scenario contains the idea that the popularity of the Internet will reach a critical point, and the World Wide Web will be overloaded, that is, it will not be able to cope with the flow of information due to existing restrictions.

The US research organization Pew Research Center predicts that by 2020 the virtual environment will be even more negative - it will contribute to the emergence of new bad habits; people will provide more and more personal information. In addition, a certain group of people will appear, existing outside the network, in order to show the status of "out of the system", defiance of technological changes.

Thus, at this stage, the development of the network is limitless. Unfortunately, we can only guess what character the future Internet will have. It is not without reason that 48% of experts doubt the ability of people to control technology in the future. Unfortunately, this opinion is not unfounded. With the advent latest devices and technologies, more and more new preconditions substantiating the opinion of analysts become noticeable. Many associate further improvement of the public Internet with the introduction of the concept of the semantic web, which would allow people and computers to interact more effectively in the process of creating, classifying and processing information.

internet network computer semantic

Introduction

. What is the Internet

. History of the Internet

.1 Timeline of the development of the Internet in the world

.2 Chronology of the development of the Internet in Russia

. Internet Development Trends

.1 12 Trends in Computer Networks and the Internet

Conclusion

Appendix 1

Introduction

The Internet has become an inseparable part of modern civilization. It provides the broadest opportunities for the free receipt and dissemination of scientific, business, educational and entertainment information.

The global network connects practically all major scientific and governmental organizations of the world, universities and business centers, news agencies and publishing houses, forming a gigantic data repository for all branches of human knowledge.

Virtual libraries, archives, news feeds contain a huge amount of text, graphics, audio and video information.

The purpose of the work is to review the history, trends and problems of the development of the Internet industry with static data for the last 10-20 years.

This topic is very relevant for the present time, since the Internet is penetrating deeper into the life of mankind and enters the spheres of education, trade, communications, services, generates new forms of communication and learning, commerce and entertainment. The paper considers: the concept of the Internet, the history of the Internet, trends in the development of the Internet.

. What is the Internet

The Internet (eng. Internet, from Interconnected Networks - the union of networks) is a global telecommunications network of information and computing resources. Serves as the physical basis for the World Wide Web. Often referred to as the World Wide Web, the Global Network, or simply the Network.

Now the word Internet is used in everyday life, but most often it means the World Wide Web and the information available on it, and not the physical network itself.

The Internet consists of many thousands of corporate, scientific, government and home computer networks. The combination of networks of different architecture and topology became possible thanks to the IP protocol (English Internet Protocol - the delivery of each individual packet to its destination) and the principle of routing data packets.

The Internet is a versatile, multifaceted mass media containing many types of communications. Communication on the Internet takes many forms, from WWW pages to emails. The source can be any person, the message can be journalistic material or the text of a chat message, and the recipient can be one person or an audience of potentially millions of people.

. History of the Internet

In order to trace the history of the origin of the Internet, let's fast forward to the United States in the late 60s. XX century, when the Department of Defense set the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) the task of combining a number of powerful computers that existed at that time into a single network in order to:

First, create such reliable system communication that would continue to function if its individual parts were disabled;

· Secondly, computers could combine their power to jointly solve various problems;

ARPA began work on this system on January 2, 1969, thus creating a prototype of the future Internet. The beginning was made on December 5, 1969, when 3 computers in California and one in Utah were connected to each other. This moment can be considered the official beginning of ARPAnet.

After some time, another large computer network was created, which united US research centers and was called NSFNET - National Science Foundation NETwork. The NSFNET network was more progressive and provided more opportunities than ARPAnet, which was eliminated in the late 80s. NSFNET took the place of the "ancestor" of the Internet, and this, in turn, required its strengthening and some reorganization, the so-called Backbone NSFNET was created, which already consisted of 13 computer centers connected to each other by the same high-speed communication lines. The centers were located in different cities The United States was, in fact, at the same time the centers of local computer networks, so NSFNET became, as it were, a network that unites other networks.

Further development of the Network went exponentially. In different countries, their own global computer networks began to appear, which were built on the same principle, they were combined with each other and with the American NFSNET network, so that in the 90s. The Internet was born in its current form. If until the mid-90s. The Internet was used mainly for sending letters and information, then in 1993-94. the situation has changed dramatically. The reason for this was the emergence of the World Wide Web. This technology turned out to be so flexible, convenient and opened up such wide opportunities that after a very short time it conquered the whole world, opening a new page in the history of the Internet.

2.1 Chronology of the development of the Internet in the world

year. The launch in the USSR of the world's first artificial Earth satellite. This event is considered the beginning of a technological race between the USSR and the USA, which eventually led to the creation of the global Internet.

year. In the United States, the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) has been established under the Department of Defense. ARPA in particular. is engaged in research in the field of ensuring the security of communications and communications during the exchange of nuclear strikes.

year. Massachusetts Institute of Technology student Leonard Kleinrock Leonard Kleinrock describes a technology that can break files into chunks and transmit them in various ways over a network.

year. ARPA Computer Lab Director John Licklider J.C.R.Licklider offers the first detailed concept of a computer network. In Washington, they show the bridge, crossing which Licklider allegedly made this discovery.

year. Larry Roberts Larry Roberts, practitioner of Licklider's theoretical ideas, proposes linking ARPA computers. Work begins on the creation of the ARPANET.

year. ARPANET is up and running. Computers of leading, including non-military, laboratories and research centers of the USA are connected to it.

year. Ray Tomlison Ray Tomlison, a programmer at the computer firm Bolt Beranek and Newman, designs an email system and suggests using the @ sign (dog).

year. The first commercial version of ARPANET, the Telenet, was launched.

year. Robert Metcalfe Robert Metcalfe of the Xerox Research Lab. creates Ethernet - the first local computer network.

year. The number of hosts has reached one hundred.

year. Writer and political analyst Alvin Toffler Alvin Toffler published the book The Third Wave, in which he described a post-industrial world in which information technology plays the first violin. Toffler, in particular, was able to assess the prospects for the development of computer networks and made the assumption that one day such a network could unite the whole world, just like all TV owners can watch the same program. At the same time, the computer network, according to Toffler's forecast, will give people incomparably more opportunities than conventional TV.

year. The birth of the modern Internet. ARPA has created a unified network language TCP/IP.

year. The number of hosts has exceeded one thousand.

year. The National Science Foundation The National Science Foumdation created NSFNET, linking the centers to "supercomputers". This network is only available to registered users, mostly universities.

year. The number of hosts exceeded 10 thousand.

year. The European physical laboratory CERN has created a well-known protocol - www - World Wide Web. This development was made primarily for the exchange of information among physicists. The first computer viruses appear and spread via the Internet.

year. The first web browser Mosaic is created by Marc AndreesenMarc Andreesen at the University of Illinois. The number of Internet hosts has exceeded 2 million, and there are 600 sites on the Web.

year. A competition has begun between Netscape browsers, created under the leadership of Mark Andreeson, and Internet Explorer, developed by Microsoft. There are 12.8 million hosts and 500 thousand sites in the world.

year. One of the classic examples of the senile struggle for the secrecy of the Internet. After the Internet conference, which took place in Libya, the Libyan customs confiscated diskettes from a number of participants in this meeting. She explained this by the fact that Internet users, using floppy disks, could bring valuable information out of the country.

year. For the first time, an attempt was made to censor the Internet (the principle is popular: "The Internet does not belong to anyone"). In a number of countries (China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, countries of the former USSR), government agencies have made serious efforts to technically block user access to certain servers and sites of a political, religious or pornographic nature. Separately prohibited sites that are popular among sexual minorities.

After 2002. The Internet connects 689 million people and 172 million hosts. New Internet technologies are being developed to replace the "old Internet", expand its functions or create national computer networks. WPF. Fact: 80% of American adults using the Internet (110 million people - approximately 53% of the total US adult population) search the Web for information about health and medicine. This data was published by research firm Harris Interactive. 18% of users who are concerned about their health "constantly" look for such information on the Internet, 35% do it "often". The fans of such information are by no means the elderly, who are traditionally concerned with the topic of maintaining health and longevity - 82% of healthy lifestyle enthusiasts are aged 18-29, 84% of them have higher education, and 77% - the income level is 2.5 times, above the national average.

Internet growth over the past 10 years (2002-2012)

internet software data cyberweapon

2.2 Chronology of the development of the Internet in Russia

Institute. Kurchatov in Moscow. Employees of the institution were the first in the USSR to try to establish a connection between computers using modems. It seems they succeeded.

The first session of modem communication took place between two Russian cities - Moscow and Barnaul.

The first newspaper about computer science- Computerra. The first satellite communication channel appeared, and the word "provider" appeared in the vocabulary of Internet users.

The first Russian search system- rambler.ru Meanwhile, the first Internet cafe and several computer clubs appear in St. Petersburg. They say that with the cheapness of the Internet, there are almost none left.

Another Russian search engine yandex.ru has appeared - who doesn't know it now!

Also a significant year: the mail.ru mail service, the most popular now in Russia (and not only), appeared. The word “electronics” has come into vogue, and campaign bosses still come to their secretaries with a request to send a parcel by e-mail :)

The Russian Wikipedia appeared, lagging behind the English one by only four months. Runet increasingly began to catch up with the Western Internet.

The St. Petersburg operator "Skylik" became the first in Russia to provide mobile access to the Internet 3g.

A programmer from London, Albert Popkov, launches the social network Odnoklassniki, which soon became very popular.

In the same year, Pavel Durov launches Odnoklassniki, which has become even more popular, but so outwardly reminiscent of the English-language Facebook network, the VKontakte network.

Russia ranks first in terms of the number of Internet users. overtaking Germany. Cyrillic domains continue to gain momentum and are now supported by all browsers.

Internet censorship appears in Russia, and now on the site zapret-info.gov.ru anyone and anyone can be accused of distributing child porn, promoting drugs, etc. Some well-known Russian sites have already been checked by the state services of the Russian Federation, according to complaints received, have already been closed.

. Internet Development Trends

I wonder what opportunities will be available to users of the World Wide Web in the coming years. The development of the network goes by leaps and bounds. What seemed fantastic yesterday is becoming commonplace today. Speed, volumes of disk space, ways of transferring arrays of information - all this is rapidly developing, growing exponentially. The Internet is exactly the area where the most daring forecasts fade and turn out to be too restrained, coming true much faster than the estimated time.

Multimedia. Already today, an average speed Internet connection allows you to watch online TV shows, of which countless numbers immediately appeared. The image quality, of course, is still inferior to other available means of receiving television, but promises to surpass them in the next few years. Thus, most likely, Internet television, if it does not displace the orthodox means of transmitting a television signal, then it will strongly force them out.

Accordingly, the technologies that exist today make it possible to broadcast programs of decent quality. The cost of such a broadcast is still too high. However, the general trend towards a gradual reduction in the cost of information transmission promises to soon make it possible to reduce the cost of transmitting high-quality images over the Internet. Reduce the price so much that this method of receiving TV channels will hardly be more expensive than traditional ones.

Electronic commerce. Selling over the Internet is already a common thing today. Successfully sold as electronic goods, and much more, the list is constantly expanding. The leaders of online sales are undoubtedly mobile phones, computer components and software. However, as the audience grows, so does the list of goods that sell well on the Internet. The natural advantages of online sales are low advertising costs, a wide audience of potential buyers and fast turnover. This attracts more and more attention from commodity producers to e-commerce. Online shopping is becoming safer and more convenient, which guarantees an influx of buyers. An important plus is the price, which is sometimes significantly lower than the generally accepted price for this product. Thus, e-commerce has a very bright future.

IP telephony. The first swallow is the Skype company, it was they who proved the incredible convenience of IP-telephony. Before them, only timid attempts were made, which, due to insufficient funding, simply failed. Today, others have followed the flagship of IP telephony, but Skype is likely to retain its leading position in this area. The quality of communication is constantly being improved, all new related services inherent in conventional telephony are being introduced. Already now there is a mobile Skype-phone that works without being tied to a computer, an answering machine, the ability to rent a regular phone number and receive calls to it regardless of the location of the Skype subscriber.

Of course, progress breeds monsters. With the development of Internet technologies, hacker techniques are also developing. The damage from the activities of hackers is growing in proportion to the growth of the popularity of the Internet. Security measures developed by numerous companies cannot completely protect resources from hacker attacks. However, there is a certain balance that is maintained without significant changes.

Another unpleasant feature of progress is channel congestion. If an effective packet compression technology is not found soon, then, despite the rapidly developing capacity and bandwidth of the network, there is a huge risk of collapse of the very concept of the Internet.

Russia is actively creating and implementing Newest technologies, unique information resources, the culture generated by the era of information is naturally formed. The development of informatization in Russia is constrained by a number of factors shown in Appendix 1.

.1 12 Trends in Computer Networks and the Internet

Today it is impossible to imagine our life without the Internet and information technology. They have firmly entered our lives, greatly simplifying it. With the development of information technology, new tools become available to us that make the processes we are used to faster, more convenient, and cheaper. However, the changes we are seeing now are just the tip of the iceberg. Networking is just at the beginning of its growth journey, and the really big innovations lie ahead of us. So, what evolution for the coming decades can be predicted already today, seeing in what direction the development of computer networks and the Internet is going?

The audience coverage will grow, the Internet will appear in the most remote places of the planet.

By the end of 2012, the number of Internet users worldwide reached 2.4 billion users worldwide. By 2020, according to the forecasts of the US National Science Foundation, the number of Internet users will increase to 5 billion.

The Internet will become more geographically distributed. The largest increase in users in the next 10 years will come from residents of developing countries in Africa (now using no more than 7%), Asia (about 19%) and the Middle East (Middle East) (about 28%). By comparison, over 72% of North Americans currently use the Internet. This trend means that the Internet by 2020 will not only reach remote places around the world, but will also support many more languages ​​and not only the ASCII encoding system we are used to.

Russian Internet users, according to the Ministry of Communications of the Russian Federation, at the beginning of 2012 were 70 million people. According to this indicator, Russia came out on top in Europe and sixth in the world. According to the results of a study by the RBC.research agency, the level of Internet penetration in Russia in 2018 will exceed 80%.

The era of software begins in information technology.

We are now in a stage of intellectualization of "iron", when the software becomes more important than the hardware itself. The software industry will grow at a rapid pace: in 2010. the annual growth rate of software was at least 6%, in 2015 the market volume will reach $365 billion, a quarter of which falls on the business application market. The hardware market will shrink: the market size in 2013 amounted to $608 billion, the growth rate from 2008 to 2013 is negative -0.7%. Until 2018, growth of 2.1% is forecasted, mainly due to the growth of the PC market (it will grow by 7.5%) and peripheral devices (printers, scanners, etc.).

The 21st century is the age of wireless technologies. In 2009 alone, the number of mobile broadband subscribers (3G, WiMAX and other high-speed data transmission technologies) increased by 85%. By 2014, it is predicted that 2.5 billion people worldwide will use mobile broadband.

Increases data transfer speed and throughput.

To date, the data transfer rate in good computers is 40 Gb / s. For example, 4 volumes of the novel "War and Peace" by L. Tolstoy are about 40 Mbps, i.e. 1000 times smaller! These 4 volumes can be transferred in less than 1 microsecond. But, in the near future it will be possible to transfer data at the speed of light. Already today there is WiGik technology, which allows you to transfer information at a speed of 7 Gbit / s over a distance of several kilometers. method of encoding information at the physical level.

The same goes for bandwidth. According to Cisco, today Skype has over 35 million concurrent users, Facebook has over 200 million, and 72 hours of video is uploaded to YouTube every minute. Experts predict that by 2015 the number of devices on the network will be twice as high as the world's population. By 2014, about 80% of this traffic will be video traffic. Images and video files that are constantly exchanged on the World Wide Web require a higher bandwidth. And technologies will develop in this direction. Users will communicate and share information through video and voice in real time. More and more network applications are emerging that require role-time interaction.

Semantic WEB.

We are rightfully moving towards a "semantic web" in which information is given a precise meaning that allows computers to "understand" and process it at a semantic level. Today, computers work at the syntactic level, at the level of signs, they read and process information according to external signs. The term Semantic Web was first coined by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (one of the inventors of the World Wide Web) in Scientific American. The semantic WEB will allow you to find information by searching: "Find information about animals that use sound location, but are neither a bat nor a dolphin," for example.

New transfer objects.

Thanks to the development of new technologies, it will be possible to transmit through computer networks what previously seemed impossible. For example, smell. The machine analyzes the molecular composition of the air at one point and transmits this data over the network. At another point in the network, this molecular composition, i.e. smell is synthesized. A prototype of such a device has already been released by the American company Mint Foundry, it is called Olly, until it went on sale. However, soon we will be able to see the embodiment of these possibilities in Everyday life.

The Internet will become a network of things, not just computers.

Today, there are over 700 million computers on the Internet (according to CIA World Factbook 2012). Every year, the number of devices that go online increases for the user: computers, phones, tablets, etc. Already today, the number of IP addresses exceeds the population of the Earth (IP addresses are needed for the operation of household appliances). With the new architecture of computer networks, the era of the "Internet of things" will come. Things and objects will interact through networks, this will open up great opportunities for all spheres of human life.

One of the nearest developments is "smart dust" - sensors scattered over a large area that collect information. The US National Science Foundation predicts that nearly a billion sensors on buildings, bridges, and roads will be connected to the Internet for purposes such as monitoring electricity usage, security, and so on. In general, it is expected that by 2020 the number of Internet-connected sensors will be an order of magnitude greater than the number of users.

In continuation of this thought, one can cite the reflections of Vinton Gray Cerf (American mathematician, considered one of the inventors of the TCP / IP protocol, vice president of Google): “Suppose that all the products that you put in the refrigerator are equipped with a special barcode or a microchip so that the refrigerator records everything you put in it. In this case, while at the university or at work, you can view this information from your phone, watch different variants recipes, and the refrigerator would suggest you what to cook today. If we expand this idea, we get approximately the following picture. You go to the store, and while you are there, you get a call mobile phone- this is the refrigerator calling you, which advises what exactly is worth buying.

The Smart Internet will transform social networks (as we have them today) into social media systems. Cameras and various sensors will be installed in the premises. Through your own account, you can feed pets and run a washing machine, for example.

Robotization of society.

Already today we know examples of unmanned aerial vehicles, automatic vacuum cleaners, police robots “work” in Japan - all these technologies perform their functions without human intervention. And every year the penetration of such machines will only increase.

One of the unsolvable problems in computing technologies is the problem of recreating thinking by a computer. However, it is possible to connect the human brain to a cybernetic, computer system. Consider the movie Robocop. Already today there are similar experiments, when a prosthetic leg or arm of a person is attached to the spinal cord. Recall the example of the South African runner Oscar Pistorius, who has been deprived of both legs since childhood, but at competitions overtaking absolutely healthy competitors, thanks to carbon prostheses. According to experts, the first such "superman", a cyberorganism, will appear before 2030. He will be physically perfect, resistant to disease, radiation and extreme temperatures. And yet it will have a human brain.

New status person on the Internet.

The Internet is changing the life of a person. The World Wide Web is becoming not only a platform for obtaining information and communication, but also a tool for fulfilling everyday needs: such as making purchases, paying utilities and etc.

The Internet has changed the relationship between the individual and the state. Personal communication, personal appeals to special services will be minimized. Submit documents to the university, call an ambulance, write a statement to the police, issue a passport - all this can already be done electronically today. The state will continue to be forced to generate services via the Internet. Already today, electronic document management throughout the country is the most important priority of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation.

It is necessary to talk about the new status of a person in the world of Internet technologies. Access to the network will become a civil right of every person, will be sacredly protected and controlled by law along with other civil liberties. This is the near future. Thus, the concept of democracy in society is changing. For the will of citizens, special platforms, tribunes, and the media are no longer needed. In this regard, there will be a minimum of anonymity. The luxury of changing passwords and creating accounts under non-existent names, leaving caustic comments under an invisibility hat - most likely will not. The login / password for entering the network can become a means of identifying a person, and his real passport data will be tied to it. Moreover, most likely it will not be planted "from above", as an attempt at censorship and control. And the desire of society itself, the need "from below". Because the more life on the Internet is real, the more transparency its users will want. A person's reputation in life will determine his reputation in the global network, there will be no invented biographies. Having determined the data of a person, the network itself will create filters and passes to access information on age restrictions, to private information, to various services in accordance with solvency and even social reliability.

Changes in the labor market and education.

The active penetration of network technologies and the Internet will lead to changes in the labor market and in the field of education. The Internet has already become global and key tool communication, it is more and more dynamically turning from a platform of entertainment into a platform of work. Social media, Email, Skype, information resources, corporate sites and programs built into the computer bind people not so much to a specific office as to the computer itself. And here it doesn’t matter where you use it from: from work, from home, from a cafe or from the coast of the Indian Ocean. There will be more and more employees doing their work remotely. And there will be more and more offices in the "pocket", i.e. virtual enterprises that exist only on the Internet.

People receiving education remotely through new formats provided by the Internet - too. For example, today at Stanford University, 25,000 people listen to a lecture by two professors at the same time!

The Internet will become greener.

Networking technology consumes too much energy, it is growing, and experts agree that the future architecture of computer networks should be more energy efficient. According to the Lawrence National Laboratory at the University of Berkeley, the amount of energy consumed global network, doubled between 2000 and 2006(!). The Internet occupies 2% of the world's electricity consumption, which is equivalent to the power of 30 nuclear power plants - 30 billion watts. The trend towards "greening" or "greening" the Internet will accelerate as energy prices rise.

Cyber ​​weapons and cyber wars.

The development of Internet technologies and the capabilities of computer networks has another side to the coin. Ranging from cybercrimes associated with the increase in e-commerce on the Internet, to cyberwars. Cyberspace is already officially recognized as the fifth "battlefield" (same as land, sea, airspace and space). The US Navy even created the CYBERFOR cyber troops in 2010, which are directly subordinate to the command of the US Navy.

Today, not only PCs of ordinary users fall under virus attacks by hackers, but also industrial systems that control automated production processes. The malicious worm can be used as espionage, as well as sabotage of power plants, airports and other life-supporting enterprises.

For example, in 2010, the Stuxnet computer worm hit Iran's nuclear facilities, setting that country's nuclear program back two years. The use of a malicious program proved to be comparable in effectiveness to a full-fledged military operation, but in the absence of human casualties. The uniqueness of this program was that for the first time in the history of cyberattacks, the virus physically destroyed the infrastructure.

Most recently, on March 27 of this year, the largest hacker attack in history took place, which even reduced the data transfer speed of the entire Internet. The target of the attack was Spamhaus, a European anti-spam company. The power of DDoS attacks was 300 Gb/s, despite the fact that the power of 50 Gb/s is enough to disable the infrastructure of a large financial organization.

The problem of national security is one of the most important issues on the agenda in developed countries. The current architecture of computer networks cannot provide such security. Therefore, the antivirus / web protection industry and the development of new security technologies will grow every year.

The exit of the Internet and network technologies into space.

Today, the Internet is on a planetary scale. On the agenda - interplanetary space, space Internet.

The International Space Station is connected to the Internet, which significantly speeds up the work and interaction of the station with the Earth. But the usual establishment of communication using fiber optic or simple cable, which is very effective in terrestrial conditions, is not possible in space. In particular, due to the fact that it is impossible to use the usual TCP / IP protocol in interplanetary space (the protocol is a special "language" of computer networks for "communicating" with each other).

Research work to create a new protocol, thanks to which the Internet could function both on lunar stations and on Mars, is underway. So, one of these protocols is called Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN). Computer networks with this protocol have already been used to connect the ISS with the Earth, in particular, photographs of salts were sent via communication channels, which were obtained in a state of weightlessness. But experiments in this area continue.

The Internet for more than two decades of its development has practically not changed conceptually and architecturally. On the one hand, new data transmission technologies were introduced, on the other hand, new services were created, but the basic concept of the network, the architecture of computer networks remain at the level of the 80s of the last century. Change is not only long overdue, but vital. Because no innovation is possible on the basis of the old architecture. Computer networks are already operating at the limit of their capabilities today, and they may simply not be able to withstand the load that networks will experience with such active growth. The development and implementation of all these trends is possible only after the introduction of a new, more flexible architecture of computer networks. In the entire scientific IT world, this is the #1 question.

The most promising technology/architecture of computer networks today, which is capable of leading out of the crisis, is the technology of software-defined networks (software defined network). In 2007, the staff of Stanford University and Berkeley developed a new "language" for communication of computer networks - the OpenFlow protocol and a new algorithm for the operation of computer networks - PCS technology. Its main value is that it allows you to get away from "manual" network management. AT modern networks control and communication functions are combined, which makes control and management very difficult. The PCS architecture separates the control process and the data transmission process. This opens up tremendous opportunities for the development of Internet technologies, since the PCS does not limit us in anything, bringing software to the fore. In Russia, the Center for Applied Research of Computer Networks is engaged in the study of PCN.

Conclusion

It is very difficult to predict the development of such a complex and large-scale phenomenon as the Internet. One thing is certain: network technologies will play a huge role in the life of the information society.

At present, the Internet is developing very rapidly: every one and a half to two years, its main quantitative indicators are doubling. This refers to the number of users, the number of connected computers, the amount of information and traffic, the amount of information resources.

The Internet is rapidly developing and qualitatively. The boundaries of its application in the life of mankind are constantly expanding, there are completely new types of network services and the use of telecommunication technologies, even in household appliances.

A life modern society is becoming more and more computerized. The requirements for the efficiency and reliability of information services are growing, new types of them are emerging. Scientists are already developing fundamentally new forms of global information networks. In the near future, many network design and maintenance processes will be fully automated.

It is quite possible that such a complex, self-organizing and self-governing system as the Internet will become the cradle of artificial intelligence.

List of sources used

1. Glushakov S.V. Work on the Internet / S.V. Glushkov, A.S. Suryadny, D.V. Lyutin, N.S. Teslenko. - ed. 3rd, add. and reworked. - M.: AST: AST MOSCOW; Vladimir: VKT, 2011. - 48s.

Informatics. Laboratory workshop for 2nd year students of all specialties. - M.: VZFEI, 2009.

Informatics: Textbook / Ed. N. V. Makarova. - M.: Higher school, 2009.

Ugrinovich N.D. Informatics and Information technologies. Textbook for grades 10-11 / N.D. Ugrinovich. - 2nd ed. - M.: BINOM. Knowledge Laboratory, 2009. - 511p.

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Initially, the Internet was used by a relatively small number of users and was intended solely for the exchange of scientific information. Today, almost a fifth of the world's population uses the World Wide Web, actively using it both in business and for solving personal problems. Users turn to the Internet for information, communication and entertainment, often preferring the World Wide Web over other means that can be used to achieve the same goals. As a result, the Internet has become a convenient, indispensable and multifunctional tool necessary for interacting with the outside world, and today it has outstripped not only print media, but also radio and television in popularity.
It is not possible to cover all aspects of the development of the Internet within the framework of one article, so we will evaluate the level of Internet growth in terms of audience volume, the number of domains in domain zones and the number of Web sites and consider the main trends in its development in 2007.

Internet audience

The growth of the audience of the World Wide Web continues - the past year was no exception, at the end of which, according to Internetworldstats.com, there were about 1.244 billion Internet users in the world. This means that almost 19% of the world's population uses the Internet. At present, the growth rate has stabilized and is now not too high, since in developed countries the Internet audience has already formed and the number of new users is relatively small - last year the audience grew by only 11.4% (Fig. 1). According to JupiterResearch forecasts, by 2011 the global Internet audience will reach 1.5 billion and make up 22% of the world's population. At the same time, in countries where mature markets have already been formed - in the USA, Canada, Japan and Western Europe - the rate of new users will be much lower than the world average.

Rice. 1. Growth rates of the global Internet audience
in 2003-2007,% (source: Computer
Industry Almanac, Internetworldstats.com, 2007)

The highest level of Internet penetration is observed in Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand, Portugal, the Netherlands and Australia - in particular in Iceland and Sweden, more than 86 and 75% of the population use the Internet, respectively (Fig. 2).

Rice. 2. Top ten countries in terms of Internet penetration
in 2007, % (source: Internetworldstats.com, 2007)

The Runet audience, according to the results of the latest study by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), in the III quarter of 2007 amounted to 29.4 million people (that is, 19.5%) - that is how many users visited the Runet in six months. The daily audience is much smaller - only 11.9 million, or 10% of the population. The given data is close to the preliminary estimates of MForum Analytics - 30.7 and 11.8 million for six-month and daily audiences, respectively. True, the growth rates of the Runet audience cited by different analytical companies differ markedly - for example, according to the FOM report, in 2007 the six-month audience grew by 11.8%, and the daily audience - by 25.2%, and according to MForum Analytics - by 10 and 16% respectively. According to Spylog.ru, 66% of Runet users live in the capitals, and among the regions, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Krasnodar provide the largest share of Internet users (2.6%, 1.6% and 1.5% respectively).

For the near future, MForum Analytics analysts predict an increase in the growth rate of the daily Internet audience (Fig. 3), which by 2010 will have more than 21 million users, which corresponds to a 15% penetration rate. At the same time, the share of the daily audience in the volume of the six-month audience will noticeably increase and reach 57% by 2010 (in 2006 - 36%).

Rice. 3. Indicators of the growth of the Runet audience in 2005-2010, %
(source: MForum Analytics, 2007)

There are much fewer regular users on the Web. At the end of September 2007, comScore Networks analysts in Europe counted only 226.7 million users over the age of 15 who use the Internet more or less regularly. Since the share of European Internet users is estimated at 27%, it turns out that the total number of active users in the world does not exceed 840 million people on average (this is about 67.5% of the Internet audience). Among European countries, the largest online audience of active users is concentrated in Germany (33.2 million) and the UK (32.2 million), where 29% of all active Internet users in Europe live. In third place in this indicator is France with 27.3 million active users. The share of Russia, whose population exceeds the population of France by more than 2 times, accounted for only 14.6 million people. On the other hand, last year Russia became the leader in terms of active Internet audience growth, significantly outperforming other European countries participating in the study - for example, in Germany and the UK, the number of active users increased by 3 and 9%, respectively, and in Russia - by as much as 23% (Fig. . 4).

Rice. 4. Ten European countries - leaders in terms of growth
Internet audience in 2007, % (source: comScore Networks, 2007)

More and more users are getting the opportunity to access the Internet not only from their place of work or study, but also from home. Thus, according to Eurostat, 54% of European households in 2007 already had access to the Internet - we recall that a year earlier the share of such households was estimated at 49%. The highest percentage of households with Internet access is recorded in the Netherlands (83%), Sweden (79%) and Denmark (78%). And the most rapidly increasing number of household connections to the Network is growing among EU countries in Slovakia and Romania, where growth rates last year exceeded 70% and 57% respectively.

In Russia, the proportion of households with access to the Internet is still quite small - according to the FOM, only 66% of users access the Web from home, and the level of Internet penetration for the daily audience is only 10%. In the coming years, the number of home connections will grow significantly, and by the end of 2010, according to MForum Analytics, the share of households with access to the World Wide Web will reach 29%.

Along with the growth of the Internet audience, the time spent by users on the Web is also increasing - for example, according to the data of the analytical company Compete.com, total time spent online by US users increased by 24.3% year-on-year. And now, according to a Harris Poll report, they are online for about 33 hours a month. Similar data is provided by comScore Networks - only for European users, who on average spend about 24.1 hours surfing every month. Of the Europeans, the most active on the Web are the British, Swedes and Spaniards, who spend more than 30 hours a month working on the Internet (Table 1). At the same time, the number of web pages downloaded per month by the Swedes is more than by users of any other country - 4019, while the average European views only 2662 pages (that is, exactly 1.5 times less). It is worth noting that American Internet users are on average more active than European ones not only in terms of time spent on the Web, but also in terms of the number of downloaded pages - they view about 2826 pages per month, that is, more than the average European, but less than the British, residents of the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands, as well as the Germans.

Table 1. Ten countries leading by time
user stays online (source: comScore
Networks, 2007)

Runetchiki also spend more and more time on the Web. According to the latest Online Monitor survey, the number of daily Internet users increased by 6% over the past year. At the same time, 37.8% of them spend daily on surfing from 1 to 3 hours, and 39.4% - more than 8 hours. For comparison, we recall that a year ago the figures were 35.3 and 36.7%, respectively. However, the given data refers to active Internet users, and the average Runet user, according to comScore Networks analysts, spends no more than 11.4 days a month on the Web, which in total corresponds to 3.3 hours a day, viewing about 1695 pages during this time (that is, 1.6 times less than the average European).

Domain zones

According to the latest report (at the end of Q3 2007) by VeriSign Corporation, which maintains the registries of the largest COM and NET domains, the number of registered domains worldwide reached 146 million (Fig. 5), which is 31% more than in the corresponding period of 2006 , and 6% more than in the second quarter of 2007. A total of 12 million new domain names were registered in Q3 2006, a quarter more than in Q3 2006, but 7% below the record levels of Q2, due to some slowdown in TLDs. However, experts are convinced that this is not a slowdown, but simply an adjustment against the background of the phenomenal development of this segment. Moreover, the report highlights that the recurrence rate of domain registrations, which is the most important characteristic of the development of the domain sector, has not dropped below 70% since 2004. In particular, last year the rates of renewal of domain registrations were higher than in 2005 (Fig. 6), although slightly lower than in 2006. This clearly indicates stability in the industry.

Rice. 5. Dynamics of changes in the number of registered domains
in 2005-2007, million (source: VeriSign, October 2007)

Rice. 6. Dynamics of renewal of domain registrations in 2004-2007, %
(source: VeriSign, October 2007)

The growth rate of the number of domains in the international zones COM and NET last year practically did not change. In total, 7.5 million new domain names were registered in these zones in Q3, and the total number of domain names reached 77 million. zone increased by 38%. As a result, the number of national domains reached 54.6 million by the end of the third quarter. As before, the most impressive registration rates were in the international COM and NET zones and the German DE zone. In addition, the Chinese (CN) and Russian (RU) zones showed very high performance. Only in the third quarter (compared to the second) the number of domains in the first zone increased by 20%, and in the second - by 12%. However, experts believe that the increased demand for registration in the Chinese zone was largely due to the promotion and therefore it is unlikely that high growth rates will continue in the future. As for the RU domain, according to experts, growth here is due to the development of the country's economy and an increase in the number of Internet users, so there is hope for maintaining positive dynamics. The DE, CN and UK domains are the most massive in the ccTLD sector in terms of the number of domain names, which together account for 45% of registrations in the ccTLD zone.

The number of names registered in the national domain RU reached about 1.15 million by the end of 2007 (Fig. 7). In comparison with the most popular national domains, this is not much, because, for example, there are more than 11 million domain names in the DE domain, and more than 6 and 5 million in the CN and UK domains, respectively.

Rice. 7. Dynamics of changes in the number of registered domains in the RU zone
in 1998-2007, thousand (source: RU-CENTER, 2007)

The leader in the number of domain registrations in the international zones COM, NET, ORG, BIZ and INFO is the United States, which accounts for about 60.6 million registered domain names (Table 2). In second place is Germany with 5.2 million domains, followed by the UK and Canada, and China rounds out the top five. Russia ranks 18th in the ranking - it accounts for about 400,000 domains.

Table 2. Five countries
having the maximum number
registered domains
in COM, NET, ORG, BIZ zones
and INFO, thousand (source:
Webhosting.info, 2007)

In addition to the growth of popular domain zones, there are other changes in this area. The international organization that controls the distribution of the Internet address space - ICANN - has begun testing the use of domain names in 11 languages, including Russian. Moreover, according to the director of Ru-Center Alexey Lesnikov, the testing of domain names in Russian is almost completed and the national Cyrillic domain ".rf" will be launched on the Internet as early as next year. In addition, ICANN is discussing the issue of revocation of obsolete top-level domains, which means domains that do not have a single site, as well as domains belonging to countries that no longer exist on the modern political map. It is assumed that the final decision on the issue of "reduction" of top-level domains will be made before January 31, 2007, and the subsequent removal of the zones "will take a year or more, which will enable users to transfer their sites and mail to other domains."

Websites

According to data from Netcraft, the website segment experienced very strong growth throughout the past year, with total resources approaching a record 150 million in November. By the end of December, the number of websites exceeded 155 million (Fig. exactly 50 million more than at the end of 2006, and 3 times more than in mid-2004. This indicates a significant acceleration in the growth rate of the World Wide Web, which amounted to 48% in 2007. For comparison, we recall that in 2005 the number of sites increased by 30.6%, and in 2006 - by 41.5%. However, in the history of the Network there is a more impressive record - 160%, achieved in 2000. Analysts attribute the high growth rate of the Internet in the past year to an increase in the popularity of blogs and social networks, especially MySpace, Live Spaces and Blogger, which accounted for approximately 25 million registrations.

Rice. 8. Dynamics of changes in the number of websites
in 1995-2007, thousand (source: Netcraft, 2007)

There are much fewer active resources on the Web - at the end of 2007 there were about 67.6 million of them. The growth rate of the number of active sites is also high - about 38%, which corresponds to 19 million new resources registered last year.

It is difficult to estimate the total number of Runet resources due to the lack of relevant studies, and it is impossible to judge its growth rate by the number of registered domain names. The fact is that the number of idle and "parked" domains is unknown, as well as the number of sites behind each of the domains. According to the statements of market participants, it is also problematic to navigate due to their inconsistency. However, you can get some idea of ​​the size of the Runet Web from the information of the most popular directories and ratings, primarily the Rambler's Top 100 rating. About 800 new resources are registered in this rating daily, and the total number of its participants at the end of 2007 was about 1.3 million sites. This is about 30% more than last year. True, the number of active sites is much less - according to the Rambler RUmetrics project, less than 200 thousand. Moreover, over the past year, there was no increase in the number of active sites (despite the active growth in the number of new domains in the RU zone), according to the rating (Fig. . nine).

Rice. 9. Dynamics of changes in the number of active
websites in the Rambler's Top100 rating in 2005-2007, thous.
(source: Rambler RUmetrica, 2007)

Some trends in the development of the World Wide Web

The development of the Internet in 2007 was determined by four factors: the continued transition to high-speed communications, the increasing popularity of wireless Internet access technologies, the expansion of bandwidth, and the active development of such network services as blogs, social networks, online video and photo services, and IP telephony. These sectors are still far from the popularity of e-mail, news services and online stores, however, in terms of growth in the number of users, they are an order of magnitude ahead of other segments of the Web.

It should be noted that the active development of these services is stimulated by the increase in the availability of broadband Internet access, as well as the expansion of bandwidth. The fact is that high-speed access appears in an increasing number of households, and providers, due to the expansion of bandwidth, have more technical capabilities to provide network services of interest to users. All this, together with the growing interest of the users themselves in them, leads to the rapid development of these segments of the Internet, which in the near future, most likely, will become quite significant in terms of income generated.

Spread of broadband Internet access

The most common Internet access options today are low-speed access via dial-up communication channels (dial-up) and high-speed access (via cable TV network, xDSL technology, FTTx technology and wireless radio access). The remaining options do not make a significant contribution to the global Internet traffic.

Low-speed access is gradually being replaced by high-speed access, as it is more comfortable and opens up more opportunities for users. For example, in the USA. according to a CEA study, 75% of households with Internet access opted for broadband. And of those who still use dial-up, 15% would love to switch to high-speed access, but they are stopped by its higher price. In developed European and Asian countries, the situation is similar - in particular in the UK, according to Point Topic, only 16% of households with Internet access use dial-up and a third of them are going to move to a high-speed line in the next 6 months; the rest are still confused by the price of broadband. However, in developing countries, the level of penetration of high-speed access is still low. For example, in Brazil and Mexico, the level of penetration (and not even among households, but among users) is a little over 3%, in India - only 0.2%, and in African countries there is practically no high-speed connection at all. Therefore, last year, on average around the world, only 45% of Internet users had high-speed Internet access (Fig. 10), while all the rest had to be content with low-speed access via dial-up communication channels. Nevertheless, by 2011 the level of broadband penetration in the world, according to analysts' forecasts, may be about 78%.

Rice. 10. The ratio of broadband and low-speed options
Internet access in 2006-2011, % (source: Juniper analysis, 2007)

At the end of Q3 2007, according to Point Topic, the total number of broadband Internet access subscribers in the world reached 328.8 million users (Fig. 11). This is 4.72% (that is, 14.8 million subscribers) more than in the second quarter. Obviously, the growth rate is gradually decreasing, since the number of potential subscribers is no longer so high in developed countries. However, the relatively fast growth of the market will continue in the coming years, and by 2011, according to Strategy Analytics forecasts, there will be 536 million broadband Internet subscribers worldwide. In-Stat forecasts are even more optimistic - 567 million.

Rice. 11. Number of broadband network users in 2000-2007
years, million (source: eMarketer, Point Topic 2003-2007)

In terms of total broadband subscribers, the United States leads by a wide margin, with 65.5 million users at the end of Q3 last year (Figure 12). Their closest competitors are China and Japan with 63.06 million and 27.8 million subscribers respectively. The difference in the number of subscribers between the US and China is rapidly shrinking and is now only 2.44 million, while the growth rate of the broadband market in China is an order of magnitude higher (for comparison: in the second quarter the difference was 3.9 million). Germany (18.6 million) and the United Kingdom (15.1 million) lead the European countries in terms of the number of broadband subscribers.

Rice. 12. Top countries with the largest number of broadband connections, million

In terms of penetration, Monaco, Denmark and the Netherlands are in the forefront, where already about 35% of the population uses some form of broadband connection (Fig. 13). Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and South Korea confidently claim the second place in terms of penetration - here more than 30% of the population belongs to the category of broadband users. The fastest growth last year was in the state of Monaco, which a year ago was not even in the top ten countries.

Rice. 13. Top countries with the highest broadband penetration, number
connections per 100 inhabitants (Source: Point Topic, 2007)

According to analyst firm Ovum, the fastest growing broadband markets in the near future will be Greece, the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Ukraine, Ireland, Thailand, Vietnam, Russia, and Turkey (Figure 14). The main drivers of growth in these markets will be the rapid development of infrastructure and lower prices. The number of high-speed access subscribers will increase especially rapidly in Greece, Turkey, Ireland and Russia, where already today the proposed tariffs (compared to the average income of the population) are relatively low and continue to decline, which will naturally increase the attractiveness of these services for a wider audience.

Rice. 14. Dynamics of broadband penetration in 2005-2011 in countries
with the highest growth rates, % (source: Ovum, 2007)

According to the Point Topic report, the vast majority of broadband network users use DSL technology for communication - it accounts for 217.14 million connections (Fig. 15), which is 66%. In second place in terms of the number of connections is cable access with a share of 21.65%, in third place is FTTx technology (10.75%). The remaining options do not make a significant contribution to the global Internet traffic - their share is limited to 1.59%. The fastest growing market segment is DSL. According to In-Stat forecasts, these technology market growth trends will continue until 2011. At the same time, DSL and access via cable television networks will remain the leading access technologies, with a combined share of 92%. If this forecast turns out to be correct, then the share of FTTx will decrease by almost 3%. At the same time, some analysts consider another scenario possible. For example, the latest Strategy Analytics report claims that FTTx will be among the fastest growing access technologies over the next five years, suggesting that its market share will either remain or decline, but not significantly.

Rice. 15. Dynamics of change in the ratio of different types of broadband connections
in 2005-2007 (source: Point Topic, 2007)

In Russia, the proportion of users using low-speed access via dial-up communication channels is also gradually decreasing, and last year, according to a study by Online Monitor, only 23.6% of Russian Internet users used it at home. But just a year earlier, there were 37%. Dial-up is being replaced by high-speed communication - this happens most quickly in the capitals. For example, in Moscow, according to research by IKS-Consulting, as of mid-2006, 21% of Moscow families used home broadband internet access. By the end of 2007, the level of penetration of this access option among Moscow families, according to preliminary data, had already reached 43%. True, the regions are still far from the capitals, since in Russia as a whole this figure was estimated at 3.5% in mid-2006, and outside of Moscow and the Moscow Region it was less than 2% (J'son & Partners).

However Russian market broadband is growing very rapidly, and its strong growth is considered by analysts to be the main trend of 2006-2007. However, the market growth rate is already slowing down. Thus, in the III quarter of 2006, according to Point Topic, the number of broadband subscribers increased by 90%. And in the III quarter of last year, the growth rate was only 64.6%, a similar situation took place in other quarters. Apparently, the drop in rates is explained by the fact that the most active part of the Runet users in the capitals already use high-speed access, and in the regions there are no conditions for an ultra-fast growth in the number of subscribers yet. Point Topic estimates that the total number of broadband users in Russia at the end of Q3 2007 was 4.39 million (Fig. 16). For comparison, we recall that at the end of 2006, the number of subscribers was estimated by analysts of this company at 2.7 million, data Russian companies slightly lower: 2.2 million - according to Golden Telecom and 2.5 million - according to J'son & Partners. A significant part of the subscribers live in Moscow, where at the end of the II quarter of 2007, according to IKS-Consulting, the subscriber base reached 1.3 million, and by the end of the year, according to preliminary data, it amounted to about 1.7 million.

Rice. 16. Number of Russian users
broadband network in 2005-2007, million
(source: Point Topic, 2007)

Households around the world typically use cable or DSL access for fast Internet access. In Russia, the most common form of high-speed home access is Ethernet, which, according to Point Topic, accounted for about 68% of home broadband connections in 2006, while DSL connections accounted for 25% and cable connections. television - only 7%. The reason for the low spread of DSL technology was too high tariffs, and cable access was inaccessible due to the lack of a developed infrastructure for cable television networks in Russia. Last year, the situation changed markedly in favor of DSL access - the growth rate of the number of DSL users was 3.5 times higher (122.22%) than other broadband options (35.21%), and the share of DSL connections increased up to 45.6%.

Increasing popularity of wireless Internet access technologies

The activity of using wireless technologies is growing noticeably both in terms of the growth in the number of users and in terms of their activity on the Web.

According to JiWire, which monitors public hot spots, there were more than 217.3 thousand hot spots in the world at the end of 2007, which is 64% more than a year ago, and 2.3 times more than in 2005. m. There are fewer commercial public points - 179.5 thousand, according to ABI Research, and the growth rate in this segment is lower - last year they amounted to 25%. Three-quarters of all commercial hotspots (72%) are in Europe and North America, according to ABI Research, but the Wi-Fi market in Asia Pacific (even with slower-than-expected hotspot growth in China) is growing so fast that, according to ABI Research, by 2012 the number of hotspots in the Asia-Pacific region will equal the number of hotspots in North America. Europe remains the market leader, and by 2012 the number of hot spots in it will exceed 70 thousand.

Hot spots are scattered across 134 countries of the world, but most of them (66.2 thousand) are concentrated in the USA. In Europe, the leaders are Great Britain, France and Germany, and in the Asia-Pacific region - South Korea (Fig. 17). As for cities, the maximum number of hot spots is concentrated in London, Paris, Taipei, Seoul, Hong Kong and Tokyo. The largest Wi-Fi network is located in London - it has more than 3.2 thousand access points and covers 6 about most of the city.

As for the activity of using wireless technologies for accessing the Web, according to a joint study by the Center for Media Research and the Pew Internet American Life Project, last year a third of all Internet users accessed the Web via wireless access. For the most part, these are those users who actively work on laptops. In general, the range of places to access the Internet turned out to be quite wide: 20% use wireless technologies at home (this is twice as many as a year ago), 17% - at work, and 25% resort to wireless access in two or even three places.

Rice. 17. Ten countries with the largest number hot spots in 2007, thous.
(source: JiWire, 2007)

Moreover, users are now more likely to use this access option to surf or check email and spend more time on the Internet. In particular, according to the iPass Wi-Fi Hotspot Index, the total number of Wi-Fi sessions on average around the world increased over the first half of last year compared to the second half of 2006 by 68% (Table 3) and by 141% compared to the same period last year. The activity of the Europeans grew most actively, they were almost twice as likely to connect to the Web. However, 56% of the sessions still fell on Americans, who are the most active followers of Wi-Fi. Europeans are in second place in this indicator - they accounted for 36% of all connections. The share of users in the Asia-Pacific region is very small - only 6%, and the rest of the world provided less than 1.7% of connections.

Table 3. Number of Wi-Fi sessions in the first half of the year
2007, thousand (source: iPass Wi-Fi Hotspot Index, 2007)

Most often, users connect to the Internet from airports, hotels, cafes and restaurants. If we discard all other locations of hot spots, it turns out that in the first half of 2007, according to iPass, more than 900 thousand connections were made from airports, that is, in 46% of cases, users connected to the Network from there. The share of hotels is estimated by analysts at 30%, and the share of cafes and restaurants - at 24%. However, the duration of sessions at airports turned out to be more than three times less than in hotels, and about 1.6 times less than in places Catering. The fastest growing number of connections from hotels - in particular, in the first half of 2007, the number of Wi-Fi sessions from them increased by 255%. For comparison, we note that the number of connections from airports over the same period increased by 121%, and from cafes and restaurants - by 97%.

London leads in terms of the number of connections - it accounted for 25 thousand connections (Fig. 18), the second and third places are occupied by New York (6.5 thousand) and Tokyo (5.6 thousand).

Rice. 18. Ten cities with the most Wi-Fi sessions in the first half of the year
2007, thousand, only connections from airports and hotels are taken into account

Recently, there has been a rapid development of the Internet.

The main directions of development of this network in the future are the following.

Development technical means and communication technologies:

• increasing the speed of information exchange;
• widespread introduction of wireless access;
• creation of faster means of switching and routing;
• introduction of trunk communication lines with a wider bandwidth;
• creation of new types of client and server programs.

The introduction of these technologies will improve the quality of service for network users and will enable them to work with new applications.

In the field of development of the Internet application, the following main areas are distinguished:

• widespread introduction of IP-telephones;
• providing users with a guaranteed quality of service;
• development of audio and video information transmission means;
• emergence and development of multiservice networks.

IP telephony (also called Internet telephony) involves the organization of a telephone conversation using IP networks.

General scheme such a telephone conversation is next. At the transmitting end, the subscriber's speech is converted into a digital signal that can be transmitted over computer networks. Then it is compressed (pauses are removed from the speech), after which the received data set is divided into parts, and IP packets are formed. These packets are transmitted over an IP network (such as the Internet). The receiver at the receiving end performs the inverse transformations.

Of course, this method of transmitting speech information reduces its quality. However, the positive point is the low cost of such negotiations if the subscribers are at long distances. So, for example, if you need to organize a permanent telephone connection between Moscow and New York, then it will be cheaper to supply the appropriate equipment and conclude an agreement with an Internet service provider (and pay only for the services of this company) than to pay per minute for international telephone communication.

In addition to conventional telephony, IP telephony can provide many other services such as voice mail, speed dialing, card call, audio conferencing, and other intelligent applications.

With all the benefits of using IP telephony, its implementation faces one problem. Voice information during transmission over communication channels is very sensitive to time delays that can occur in IP data networks. Time delays can be caused by the fact that IP packets do not necessarily arrive at the recipient in the same order in which they were sent. This means that some package may arrive with a significant delay. And until it is received, it is impossible to put together all the information received. In this regard, during a telephone conversation transmitted over IP networks, there may be large pauses between words and delays in the response of the subscriber. All this reduces the quality of the service provided.

To successfully solve this problem, it is necessary to use the mechanisms of guaranteed quality of service.

Quality of Service (QoS) mechanisms allow packets to be processed on the IP network according to specified priority levels.

There are several technologies for implementing such mechanisms.

1. Differentiated service.

With the introduction of this technology, application programs will be able to request one of three priority levels: "platinum", "gold", "silver". This means that if a packet has a priority level, then network hardware should handle it appropriately. Thus, the "platinum" level packets should pass along the route without delays, the "gold" - with small delays, and the "silver" level packets are processed after processing the packets of the two previous priority levels.

disadvantage this approach is the lack of guarantees of hardware compatibility. This means that if you set a priority level on your packet, then there is no guarantee that the network equipment will not change it at its own discretion.

2. MPLS technology.

This technology provides for the assignment to each IP-packet of the corresponding label that determines its priority and route. This technology provides a more compact form of service data, which speeds up the process of determining the message route by network equipment.

3. RSVP - resource reservation protocol.

This protocol uses a separate group of IP service packets that inform network equipment about how much bandwidth is needed for a given message and how much time delay is possible. When an application that supports this protocol establishes a connection, a special request is sent across the network. It notifies all intermediate network nodes about what resources are needed. Each node checks its capabilities and will give an answer whether it can serve this connection or not.

All described technologies work only if all network equipment supports mechanisms of guaranteed quality of service.

Multiservice networks should become a new stage in the development of telecommunication technologies.

A multiservice network is a telecommunications structure that allows users to provide a variety of communication services that are different in both qualitative and quantitative characteristics.

In such a network, there can be both unpretentious e-mail and FTP traffic, as well as more demanding HTTP traffic when browsing the Internet, as well as delay-sensitive IP telephone traffic, etc. These networks will help organize the transfer of both confidential corporate correspondence and banking transfers, broadcasting urgent information from the means of protection.

Audio traffic may include broadcasting, music broadcasting, multiparty conferencing. The transmitted video information may consist of television broadcasting, remote monitoring, videoconferencing, etc.

Each of these types of information imposes its own specific requirements on the bandwidth of communication channels, the time of message delivery, the acceptable level of losses and the degree of data security.

With a significant number of users in such a network, well-established traffic control mechanisms are required.

In addition, there is the problem of providing an extremely simple and understandable user interface.

Also, in addition to convenient means of access, the user must have means of monitoring the quality of the services provided to him. This may be, for example, a monitor program that measures certain network parameters (bandwidth, delay time, etc.) and issues a message on compliance or non-compliance with the ordered quality of service.

When a user connects to the network, not only the user must be checked (the rights to access this network, the state of the account for paying for network services, etc.), but also the network itself must be checked, i.e. whether the network can provide this service and what it takes.

In addition to the listed areas of development of the Internet, the following are also distinguished:

• an increase in the number of on-line publications of books and other publications, including not only text information, but also drawings, audio and video clips;
• development of e-commerce;
• funds development distance learning;
• a large increase in the number of workers employed in the telecommunications services sector.

(Center for Applied Research of Computer Networks)

TsPIKS is a research project to create technologies and products for new generation computer networks in Russia. We develop and implement the latest and promising technologies in the field of computer networks and the Internet, demonstrate and test the effectiveness of these technologies in industry and business. Resident of the IT cluster of the Skolkovo Innovation Foundation.

Trends in the development of computer networks and the Internet

The material was prepared specifically for the magazineSkolkovo Review

Today it is impossible to imagine our life without the Internet and information technology. They have firmly entered our lives, greatly simplifying it. With the development of information technology, new tools become available to us that make the processes we are used to faster, more convenient, and cheaper. However, the changes we are seeing now are just the tip of the iceberg. Networking is just at the beginning of its growth journey, and the really big innovations are ahead of us. So, what evolution for the coming decades can be predicted already today, seeing in what direction the development of computer networks and the Internet is going?
1. The reach of the audience will grow, the Internet will appear in the most remote places on the planet. By the end of 2012, the number of Internet users worldwide reached 2.4 billion users worldwide. By 2020, according to the forecasts of the US National Science Foundation, the number of Internet users will increase to 5 billion. The Internet will become more geographically distributed. The largest increase in users in the next 10 years will come from residents of developing countries in Africa (now using no more than 7%), Asia (about 19%) and the Middle East (Middle East) (about 28%). By comparison, over 72% of North Americans currently use the Internet. This trend means that by 2020 the Internet will not only reach remote places around the world, but will support many more languages ​​and not only the ASCII encoding system we are used to. Russian Internet users, according to the Ministry of Communications of the Russian Federation, at the beginning of 2012 were 70 million people. According to this indicator, Russia came out on top in Europe and sixth in the world. According to the results of a study by the RBC.research agency, the level of Internet penetration in Russia in 2018 will exceed 80%.
2. The era of software begins in information technology. We are now in a stage of intellectualization of "iron", when the software becomes more important than the hardware itself. The software industry will grow at a rapid pace: in 2010. the annual growth rate of software was at least 6%, in 2015 the market volume will reach $365 billion, a quarter of which falls on the business application market. The hardware market will shrink: the market size in 2013 was $608 billion, the growth rate from 2008 to 2013 is negative -0.7%. Until 2018, growth of 2.1% is forecasted, mainly due to the growth of the PC market (it will grow by 7.5%) and peripheral devices (printers, scanners, etc.). The 21st century is the age of wireless technology. In 2009 alone, the number of mobile broadband subscribers (3G, WiMAX and other high-speed data transmission technologies) increased by 85%. By 2014, it is predicted that 2.5 billion people worldwide will use mobile broadband.
3. Increasing data transfer speed and bandwidth. To date, the data transfer rate in good computers is 40 Gb / s. For example, 4 volumes of the novel "War and Peace" by L. Tolstoy are about 40 Mbps, i.e. 1000 times smaller! These 4 volumes can be transferred in less than 1 microsecond. But, in the near future it will be possible to transfer data at the speed of light. Already today there is WiGik technology, which allows you to transfer information at a speed of 7 Gbit / s over a distance of several kilometers. method of encoding information at the physical level. The same goes for bandwidth. According to Cisco, today Skype has over 35 million concurrent users, Facebook has over 200 million, and 72 hours of video is uploaded to YouTube every minute. Experts predict that by 2015 the number of devices on the network will be twice as high as the world's population. By 2014, about 80% of this traffic will be video traffic. Images and video files that are constantly exchanged on the World Wide Web require a higher bandwidth. And technologies will develop in this direction. Users will communicate and share information through video and voice in real time. More and more network applications are emerging that require role-time interaction.
4. Semantic WEB. We are rightfully moving towards a "semantic web" in which information is given a precise meaning that allows computers to "understand" and process it at a semantic level. Today, computers work at the syntactic level, at the level of signs, they read and process information according to external signs. The term Semantic Web was first coined by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (one of the inventors of the World Wide Web) in Scientific American. The semantic WEB will allow you to find information by searching: "Find information about animals that use sound location, but are neither a bat nor a dolphin," for example.
5. New transfer objects. Thanks to the development of new technologies, it will be possible to transmit through computer networks what previously seemed impossible. For example, smell. The machine analyzes the molecular composition of the air at one point and transmits this data over the network. At another point in the network, this molecular composition, i.e. smell is synthesized. A prototype of such a device has already been released by the American company Mint Foundry, it is called Olly, until it went on sale. However, soon we will be able to see the embodiment of these possibilities in everyday life.
6. The Internet will become a network of things, not just computers. Today, there are over 700 million computers on the Internet (according to CIA World Factbook 2012). Every year, the number of devices that go online increases for the user: computers, phones, tablets, etc. Already today, the number of IP addresses exceeds the population of the Earth (IP addresses are needed for the operation of household appliances). With the new architecture of computer networks, the era of the "Internet of things" will come. Things and objects will interact through networks, this will open up great opportunities for all spheres of human life. One of the nearest developments is "smart dust" - sensors scattered over a large area that collect information. The US National Science Foundation predicts that nearly a billion sensors on buildings, bridges, and roads will be connected to the Internet for purposes such as monitoring electricity usage, security, and so on. In general, it is expected that by 2020 the number of Internet-connected sensors will be an order of magnitude greater than the number of users. In continuation of this thought, one can cite the reflections of Vinton Gray Cerf (American mathematician, considered one of the inventors of the TCP / IP protocol, vice president of Google): “Suppose that all the products that you put in the refrigerator are equipped with a special barcode or a microchip so that the refrigerator records everything you put in it. In this case, while at university or at work, you can view this information from your phone, look at different recipe options, and the refrigerator would suggest you what to cook today. If we expand this idea, we get approximately the following picture. You go to the store, and while you are there, your mobile phone rings - this is the refrigerator ringing, which advises what exactly is worth buying. The Smart Internet will transform social networks (as we have them today) into social media systems. Cameras and various sensors will be installed in the premises. Through your own account, you can feed pets and run a washing machine, for example.
7. Robotization of society. Already today we know examples of unmanned aerial vehicles, automatic vacuum cleaners, police robots “work” in Japan - all these technologies perform their functions without human intervention. And every year the penetration of such machines will only increase. One of the unsolvable problems in computing technologies is the problem of recreating thinking by a computer. However, it is possible to connect the human brain to a cybernetic, computer system. Consider the movie Robocop. Already today there are similar experiments, when a prosthetic leg or arm of a person is attached to the spinal cord. Recall the example of the South African runner Oscar Pistorius, who has been deprived of both legs since childhood, but at competitions overtaking absolutely healthy competitors, thanks to carbon prostheses. According to experts, the first such "superman", cyber organism will appear before 2030. He will f physically perfect, resistant to disease, radiation and extreme temperatures. And yet it will have a human brain.
8. The new status of a person on the Internet. The Internet is changing the life of a person. The World Wide Web is becoming not only a platform for obtaining information and communication, but also a tool for fulfilling everyday needs: such as shopping, paying utility bills, etc. The Internet has changed the relationship between a person and the state. Personal communication, personal appeals to special services will be minimized. Submit documents to a university, call an ambulance, write a statement to the police, apply for a passport - all this can already be done electronically today. The state will continue to be forced to generate services via the Internet. Already today, electronic document management throughout the country is the most important priority of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation. It is necessary to talk about the new status of a person in the world of Internet technologies. Access to the network will become a civil right of every person, will be sacredly protected and controlled by law along with other civil liberties. This is the near future. Thus, the concept of democracy in society is changing. For the will of citizens, special platforms, tribunes, and the media are no longer needed. In this regard, there will be a minimum of anonymity. The luxury of changing passwords and creating accounts under non-existent names, leaving caustic comments under an invisibility hat - most likely will not. The login / password for entering the network can become a means of identifying a person, and his real passport data will be tied to it. Moreover, most likely it will not be planted "from above", as an attempt at censorship and control. And the desire of society itself, the need "from below". Because the more life on the Internet is real, the more transparency its users will want. A person's reputation in life will determine his reputation in the global network, there will be no invented biographies. Having determined the data of a person, the network itself will create filters and passes to access information on age restrictions, to private information, to various services in accordance with solvency and even social reliability.
9. Changes in the labor market and education. The active penetration of network technologies and the Internet will lead to changes in the labor market and in the field of education. The Internet has already become a global and key communication tool, it is increasingly transforming from a platform of entertainment into a platform of work. Social networks, e-mail, Skype, information resources, corporate websites and programs built into the computer bind people not so much to a specific office as to the computer itself. And here it doesn’t matter where you use it from: from work, from home, from a cafe or from the coast of the Indian Ocean. There will be more and more employees doing their work remotely. And there will be more and more offices in the "pocket", i.e. virtual enterprises that exist only on the Internet. People who receive education remotely through new formats provided by the Internet - too. For example, today at Stanford University, 25,000 people listen to a lecture by two professors at the same time!
10. The Internet will become greener. Networking technology consumes too much energy, it is growing, and experts agree that the future architecture of computer networks should be more energy efficient. According to the Lawrence National Laboratory at the University of Berkeley, the amount of energy consumed by the global network doubled (!) between 2000 and 2006 (!). The Internet accounts for 2% of the world's electricity consumption, which is equivalent to the capacity of 30 nuclear power plants - 30 billion watts. The trend towards "greening" or "greening" the Internet will accelerate as energy prices rise.
11. Cyber ​​weapons and cyber wars. The development of Internet technologies and the capabilities of computer networks has another side to the coin. Ranging from cybercrimes associated with the increase in e-commerce on the Internet, to cyberwars. Cyberspace is already officially recognized as the fifth "battlefield" (same as land, sea, airspace and space). The US Navy even created the CYBERFOR cyber troops in 2010, which are directly subordinate to the command of the US Navy. Today, not only PCs of ordinary users fall under virus attacks by hackers, but also industrial systems that control automated production processes. The malicious worm can be used as espionage, as well as sabotage of power plants, airports and other life-supporting enterprises. For example, in 2010, the Stuxnet computer worm hit Iran's nuclear facilities, setting that country's nuclear program back two years. The use of a malicious program proved to be comparable in effectiveness to a full-fledged military operation, but in the absence of human casualties. The uniqueness of this program was that for the first time in the history of cyberattacks, the virus physically destroyed the infrastructure. Most recently, on March 27 of this year, the largest hacker attack in history took place, which even reduced the data transfer speed of the entire Internet. The target of the attack was Spamhaus, a European anti-spam company. The power of DDoS attacks was 300 Gb/s, despite the fact that the power of 50 Gb/s is enough to disable the infrastructure of a large financial organization. The problem of national security is one of the most important issues on the agenda in developed countries. The current architecture of computer networks cannot provide such security. Therefore, the antivirus / web protection industry and the development of new security technologies will grow every year.
12. The release of the Internet and network technologies into space. Today, the Internet is on a planetary scale. On the agenda are interplanetary space, the outer space Internet.

The International Space Station is connected to the Internet, which significantly speeds up the work and interaction of the station with the Earth. But the usual establishment of communication using fiber optic or simple cable, which is very effective in terrestrial conditions, is not possible in space. In particular, due to the fact that it is impossible to use the usual TCP / IP protocol in interplanetary space (the protocol is a special "language" of computer networks for "communicating" with each other).

Research work to create a new protocol, thanks to which the Internet could function both on lunar stations and on Mars, is underway. So, one of these protocols is called Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN). Computer networks with this protocol have already been used to connect the ISS with the Earth, in particular, photographs of salts were sent via communication channels, which were obtained in a state of weightlessness. But experiments in this area continue.

The Internet for more than two decades of its development has practically not changed conceptually and architecturally. On the one hand, new data transmission technologies were introduced, on the other hand, new services were created, but the basic concept of the network, the architecture of computer networks remain at the level of the 80s of the last century. Change is not only long overdue, but vital. Because no innovation is possible on the basis of the old architecture. Computer networks are already operating at the limit of their capabilities today, and they may simply not be able to withstand the load that networks will experience with such active growth. The development and implementation of all these trends is possible only after the introduction of a new, more flexible architecture of computer networks. In the entire scientific IT world, this is the #1 question.

The most promising technology/architecture of computer networks today, which is capable of leading out of the crisis, is software-defined networking technology (softwaredefinednetwork). In 2007, Stanford and Berkeley University staff developed a new “language” for communicating computer networks - openflo protocolw and a new algorithm for the operation of computer networks - PCS technology . Its main value is that it allows you to get away from "manual" network management. In modern networks, the functions of control and data transmission are combined, which makes control and management very difficult. The PCS architecture separates the control process and the data transmission process. This opens up tremendous opportunities for the development of Internet technologies, since the PCS does not limit us in anything, bringing software to the fore. In Russia, the Center for Applied Research of Computer Networks is engaged in the study of PCN.