This technology, which has been used to intensify the work and increase the productivity of oil wells for more than half a century, is perhaps the most heated debate among environmentalists, scientists, ordinary citizens, and often even workers in the extractive industry themselves. Meanwhile, the mixture that is pumped into the well during hydraulic fracturing is 99% water and sand, and only 1% chemical reagents.

What hinders oil recovery

The main reason for the low productivity of wells, along with poor natural permeability of the formation and low-quality perforation, is a decrease in the permeability of the bottomhole formation zone. This is the name of the reservoir area around the wellbore, which is subject to the most intense impact of various processes that accompany the construction of the well and its subsequent operation and violate the initial equilibrium mechanical and physico-chemical state of the reservoir. The drilling itself introduces changes in the distribution of internal stresses in the surrounding rock. A decrease in well productivity during drilling also occurs as a result of the penetration of the drilling fluid or its filtrate into the bottomhole formation zone.

The reason for the low productivity of wells can also be poor-quality perforation due to the use of low-power perforators, especially in deep wells, where the energy of the explosion of charges is absorbed by the energy of high hydrostatic pressures.

A decrease in the permeability of the bottomhole formation zone also occurs during well operation, which is accompanied by a violation of the thermobaric equilibrium in the reservoir system and the release of free gas, paraffin and asphalt-resinous substances from the oil, which clog the pore space of the reservoir. Intensive contamination of the bottom-hole formation zone is also noted as a result of the penetration of working fluids into it during various well drilling operations. repair work. Pickup injection wells deteriorates due to blockage of the pore space of the formation with corrosion products, silt, oil products contained in the injected water. As a result of such processes, liquid and gas filtration resistances increase, well flow rates decrease, and there is a need for artificial stimulation of the bottomhole formation zone in order to increase well productivity and improve their hydrodynamic connection with the formation.

Technologyfracking

To increase oil recovery, intensify the operation of oil and gas wells and increase the injectivity of injection wells, the method of hydraulic fracturing or fracking is used. The technology consists in creating a highly conductive fracture in the target formation under the action of a fluid injected into it under pressure to ensure the flow of the produced fluid to the bottom of the well. After hydraulic fracturing, the well flow rate, as a rule, increases sharply - or the drawdown decreases significantly. Hydraulic fracturing technology makes it possible to "revive" idle wells, where oil or gas production by traditional methods is no longer possible or unprofitable.

Hydraulic fracturing (HF) is one of the most effective means increase in well productivity, since it leads not only to the intensification of the development of reserves located in the well drainage zone, but also, under certain conditions, allows you to significantly expand this zone by adding poorly drained zones and interlayers to the development - and, therefore, to achieve a higher ultimate oil recovery .

Historyhydraulic fracturing method

The first attempts to intensify oil production from oil wells were made as early as the 1890s. In the United States, where oil production was developing at a rapid pace at that time, a method of stimulating production from tight rocks using nitroglycerin was successfully tested. The idea was to use nitroglycerine to break up dense rocks in the bottomhole zone of the well and increase the flow of oil to the bottomhole. The method was successfully used for some time, despite its obvious danger.

The first commercially successful hydraulic fracturing was carried out in 1949 in the United States, after which their number began to increase dramatically. By the mid-1950s, the number of hydraulic fracturing carried out reached 3,000 per year. In 1988, the total number of hydraulic fracturing performed exceeded 1 million operations, and this is only in the USA.

In domestic practice, the hydraulic fracturing method has been used since 1952. The peak of the application of the method was reached in 1959, after which the number of operations decreased, and then this practice stopped altogether. From the beginning of the 1970s to the end of the 1980s, hydraulic fracturing in domestic oil production on an industrial scale was not carried out. In connection with the commissioning of large oil fields in Western Siberia, the need for intensification of production simply disappeared.

… And today's day

The revival of the practice of hydraulic fracturing in Russia began only in the late 1980s. Currently, the leading positions in terms of the number of hydraulic fracturing are occupied by the United States and Canada. They are followed by Russia, where the use of hydraulic fracturing technology is carried out mainly on oil fields Western Siberia. Russia is practically the only country (not counting Argentina) outside the US and Canada where hydraulic fracturing is a common practice and is perceived quite adequately. In other countries, the application of hydraulic fracturing technology is difficult due to local bias and misunderstanding of the technology. Some of them have significant restrictions on the use of hydraulic fracturing technology, up to a direct ban on its use.

A number of experts argue that the use of hydraulic fracturing technology in oil production is an irrational, barbaric approach to the ecosystem. At the same time, the method is widely used by almost all major oil companies.

The application of hydraulic fracturing technology is quite extensive - from low to high permeability reservoirs in gas, gas condensate and oil wells. In addition, with the use of hydraulic fracturing, it is possible to solve specific problems, for example, to eliminate sand in the wells, to obtain information about the reservoir properties of test objects in exploration wells, etc.

In recent years, the development of hydraulic fracturing technologies in Russia is aimed at increasing the volume of proppant injection, the production of nitrogen fracturing, as well as multi-stage hydraulic fracturing in the reservoir.

Equipment forhydraulic fracturing

The equipment required for hydraulic fracturing is produced by a number of enterprises, both foreign and domestic. One of them is the TRUST-ENGINEERING company, which presents a wide range of hydraulic fracturing equipment in a standard version, as well as in the form of a modification performed at the request of the customer. .

As competitive advantage products of LLC "TRUST-ENGINEERING" it is necessary to note the high share of localization of production; application of the most modern design and production technologies; the use of components and components from world leaders in the industry. It is important to note the high culture of design, production, warranty, post-warranty and after-sales service. Equipment for hydraulic fracturing manufactured by TRUST-ENGINEERING LLC is easier to purchase due to the presence of representative offices in Moscow ( the Russian Federation), Tashkent (Republic of Uzbekistan), Atyrau (Republic of Kazakhstan), as well as in Pancevo (Serbia).

Of course, the hydraulic fracturing method, like any other technology used in the extractive industry, is not without certain drawbacks. One of the disadvantages of fracking is that the positive effect of the operation can be negated by unforeseen situations, the risk of which is quite high with such an extensive intervention (for example, an unforeseen violation of the tightness of a nearby water reservoir is possible). At the same time. Hydraulic fracturing is one of the most effective methods of well stimulation today, opening not only low-permeability reservoirs, but also reservoirs of medium and high permeability. The greatest effect from hydraulic fracturing can be achieved with the introduction of an integrated approach to the design of hydraulic fracturing as an element of the development system, taking into account various factors, such as reservoir conductivity, well spacing system, reservoir energy potential, fracture mechanics, fracture fluid and proppant characteristics, technological and economic limitations. .

IN Lately in the oil industry, hydraulic fracturing (HF) is increasingly being used. Hydraulic fracturing is one of the most effective methods of influencing the bottomhole zone of wells. The very first experience of hydraulic fracturing in the Kogalym region was carried out in 1989 at the Povkhovskoye field. Since then, a lot of time has passed, various technologies have been introduced hydraulic fracturing, and this process has become an integral part of the operation of all fields of the enterprise. If earlier the main task of hydraulic fracturing was to restore the natural productivity of the reservoir, degraded in the process of drilling and well operation, now the priority is to increase oil recovery from reservoirs at fields that are at a late stage of development, both due to the involvement in the development of poorly drained zones and intervals in objects with a high degree of development of reserves, and involvement in the development of low-permeability, highly dissected objects. The two most important developments in oil production over the past 15 years are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal well drilling. This combination has very high potential. Horizontal wells can be drilled either perpendicular or along the fracture azimuth. Virtually no technology oil and gas industry does not give such a high economic return. Employees of the Tevlinsko-Russkinskoye field were convinced of this by testing the interval fracturing method at well 1744G. Yury Miklin, Leading Engineer of the EOR Department, told us about the successful experience.

In an era of high energy prices, producing companies seek to extract the maximum from their assets by extracting as many hydrocarbons as is economically justified, - says Yury, - for this purpose, extended reservoir intervals are often involved in development through horizontal wells. The results of traditional hydraulic fracturing in such wells may be unsatisfactory in terms of economic and technological reasons. Method of interval or, as they say, multi-interval hydraulic fracturing, is able to provide more efficient recovery of oil reserves by increasing the contact area of ​​the fracture with the formation and creating highly conductive paths for oil movement. Degraded reservoir properties are forcing oil companies to look for more and more cost-effective ways to build a well to further stimulate the reservoirs of interest using the latest advances in science and technology. Realizing this, companies seek to reduce the time and, accordingly, the cost of additional tripping operations and the work of well workover crews with the help of special equipment, which becomes integral part wells.

One way out is to complete the well with a horizontal liner with circulation valves on the assembly, which serve to pump the mixture of fluid with proppanite. This assembly includes swellable packers designed to secure and stabilize the liner in an open hole.

Process hydraulic fracturing formations consists in creating artificial and expanding existing cracks in the rocks of the bottomhole zone under the influence of increased pressures of the fluid injected into the well. This entire system of fractures connects the well with the productive parts of the formation remote from the bottomhole. To prevent cracks from closing, coarse-grained sand is introduced into them, which is added to the fluid injected into the well. The length of cracks can reach several tens of meters.

Here it should be taken into account that the distance between the places of installation of circulation valves and, accordingly, the places of initiation of fractures in a horizontal wellbore will affect the productivity of each section, - Yury notes, - that is, it is required to choose the optimal distance between fractures, based on the geometry of the designed fractures. We must protect ourselves as much as possible from crossing fractures in the reservoir, which can cause complications during hydraulic fracturing. Ideally, the maximum flow rate is possible with a distance between fractures equal to the drainage radius. This condition is not feasible, given the design of well 1744G, so the location of the fractures had to be chosen with the maximum possible distance from each other.

Taking into account the inclined bedding, horizontal wells the best way increase the area of ​​contact with the productive formation. Holding hydraulic fracturing according to the "Zone Select" technology is as follows: first, hydraulic fracturing the furthest interval through the arrangement in which the circulation valve is already open. After that, a ball is launched from the surface into the tubing string (tubing), together with the displacement fluid, which, reaching the bottom of the well, first opens the second circulation valve to treat the next section, and then sits in a special seat, cutting off the treated interval. With two treatment intervals, one ball is used. In proportion to the increase in the number of processing intervals, the number of balls also increases. Moreover, each next ball should be of a larger diameter than the previous one. Balls are made of aluminum, and this is important. After stimulating the required number of intervals and pumping the calculated amount of a mixture of fluid and sand, the hydraulic fracturing fleet leaves the well. A fleet of coiled tubing (coiled tubing) is installed on the well, which flushes, mills balls and develops the well with the determination of the inflow profile and production capabilities of the well. The development is carried out with nitrogen - this is the most promising direction for reducing the pressure on the bottom of the well. TPE "Kogalymneftegaz" used this technology to treat two intervals of well 1744G of the Tevlinsko-Russkinskoye field. Compared to neighboring horizontal and directional wells after hydraulic fracturing using standard technology, this well achieved higher technological performance. The initial oil flow rate at well 1744G was about 140 tons per day.

Finally, I would like to note that it is the large-scale application hydraulic fracturing allows to stop the decline in oil production at the fields of TPE "Kogalymneftegaz" and increases the production of reserves from medium and low-productive reservoirs. The advantages of performing interval hydraulic fracturing in horizontal wells using the “Zone Select” technology is not only an increase in the effective area of ​​contact between the reservoir and the well draining the reservoir, but also overcoming damage to the bottomhole zone of the wellbore after drilling, as well as bringing into development poorly drained areas with low porosity and permeability. properties. This indicates that horizontal wells using interval hydraulic fracturing are more efficient and cost-effective.

Director of ICT SB RAS Sergei Grigorievich Cherny.

Why hydraulic fracturing (HF) is needed, why it needs to be simulated, what is an advanced model and who is interested in it - these and other questions are answered by the director of the Institute of Computational Technologies of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Sergey Grigoryevich Cherny.

1. Why hydraulic fracturing is needed

Hydraulic fracturing was invented for the development of mineral deposits and the construction of underground structures in difficult geological and physical conditions - when methods of controlled destruction and unloading of rock masses are needed, the creation of drainage systems in them, insulating screens, and so on. Hydraulic fracturing occupies a special place among the methods of intensifying the operation of oil and gas production wells and increasing the injectivity of injection wells. In 2015-2017, 14-15 thousand hydraulic fracturing operations per year were carried out in Russia, and about 50 thousand in the USA.

The hydraulic fracturing method consists in creating a highly conductive fracture in an untouched rock mass to ensure the flow of gas, oil, their mixture, condensate, etc. to the bottom of the well. acids. The injection pressure is higher than the fracture pressure, so a fracture is formed. To fix it in the open state, either a proppant is used, which weds the fracture, or an acid, which corrodes the walls of the created fracture. The name proppant comes from the English abbreviation "propping agent" - proppant. In this capacity, for example, quartz sand or special ceramic balls are used, which are stronger and larger, and, therefore, more permeable.

2. Why fracturing modeling is needed

Creation of hydraulic fracturing technology requires modeling of its process. This makes it possible to predict the fracture geometry and optimize the entire hydraulic fracturing technology. In particular, it is very important to ensure the correct shape of the fracture in the initial section of its propagation in the vicinity of the well. It is necessary that it does not have sharp bends, which can lead to plugs that clog the channel for pumping out oil or gas produced. A natural question arises: where to get the geophysical data on the reservoir necessary for the model, such as permeability, porosity, compressibility, stress state, and others?

This question arose long before the development of hydraulic fracturing technology, and science offered many methods for determining various task parameters. This includes the analysis of cores (rock samples obtained during drilling), and multiple pressure and strain sensors installed in various parts of the well, and seismic survey methods, in which the boundaries of various materials in the rock are determined by the time of passage of elastic waves induced from the surface and their parameters, and even measurements of natural radioactivity, which can show, for example, the location of clay interlayers.

Geophysicists have proven technologies to determine the principal stresses in a pristine rock mass, including those based on field drilling and geophysical measurements. The mini-fracturing technology is also used, in which, according to the parameters obtained in the process of creating a small fracture, models are calibrated that will predict the behavior of a larger fracture. Of course, none of the approaches can give a complete picture, therefore, methods for obtaining information about the reservoir are constantly being improved, including at our institute. For example, we have shown that the fracturing parameters of the rock surrounding the well can be determined by solving inverse problems based on mud filtration models and measured well pressure dependences. We also determine the structure and parameters of the near-wellbore area based on the results of well logging, solving the inverse problem based on Maxwell's equations.

3. How long has hydraulic fracturing modeling been carried out?

A relatively long time ago, since the 1950s, almost immediately after hydraulic fracturing began to be used as a method to increase well productivity. Then, in 1955, one of the first hydraulic fracturing models was proposed - the Khristianovich-Zheltov model, which was further developed by Girtsm and de Klerk and known throughout the world as the Khristianovich-Girtsma-de Klerk (KGD) model. A little later, two more well-known, widely used and currently used models were created: Perkins-Kern-Nordgren (PKN) and the model of a plane-radial crack. These three models represent, respectively, three basic geometric concepts in a set of planar one-dimensional models:

• rectilinear crack propagation from a linear source of infinite height;
• rectilinear crack propagation from a linear source of finite height;
• radial symmetric crack propagation from a point source.

The three basic concepts and their modifications adequately describe hydraulic fracturing for typical well orientations in traditional oil and gas fields, involving vertical or deviated drilling and one hydraulic fracture per well. These models have not lost their relevance and, due to their speed, are used in modern hydraulic fracturing simulators, both to obtain primary information about a fracture and to optimize hydraulic fracturing parameters.

However, at present, due to the depletion of traditional, easily recoverable reserves, the development of unconventional fields, which are characterized by a more complex structure of oil and gas reservoirs, is becoming more and more important in the world. Distinctive features of such reservoirs are low (tight sand) and ultra-low (shale gas and oil) or vice versa extremely high (sandstone with heavy oil) reservoir permeability, the presence of an extensive system of fractures that may contain one or more families oriented in various directions and crossing each other. Very often, the development of such unconventional fields becomes economically unprofitable without such stimulation of production as hydraulic fracturing. At the same time, traditional hydraulic fracturing models do not adequately describe these processes, and new, more refined (modern, advanced, improved) models are required.

4. Is ICT SB RAS able to solve the problem of hydraulic fracturing modeling for unconventional fields

Hydraulic fracturing is a complex technology, and the development of a model of the entire process is not within the power of one institute, therefore, groups of scientists around the world are concentrating on various parts of this technology. IWT has extensive experience in modeling the initial stage of hydraulic fracture propagation: from its formation to reaching several meters in size. At this stage, in contrast to the developed crack, the size of which reaches hundreds of meters, the curvature is strongly noticeable and strongly affects, which must be taken into account.

Therefore, we are developing the direction of improving the models in terms of taking into account the three-dimensionality of the propagation process in them. For a realistic description of the crack front propagation in an arbitrary three-dimensional case, it is necessary to apply the three-dimensional criterion for finding the increment of the crack front and choosing the direction of its propagation, taking into account mixed loading in all three stress modes. Among existing works, devoted to three-dimensional propagation models, the crack front deviation is determined only by the second mode. They use two-dimensional flat criteria. We have constructed and verified a new fully three-dimensional numerical model of fracture propagation from a cavity under the pressure of an injected liquid of complex rheology with a three-dimensional propagation criterion. It made it possible to describe the evolution of a crack from the moment of its formation to the exit to the main direction, taking into account its curvature.

One more distinctive feature This model is the simultaneous consideration of the well itself and the variable load caused by the flow of fluid in a fracture propagating from the well. Typically, in 3D fracture propagation modeling work, the well is not present in the model. At best, a variable load in the fracture is considered, caused by the injection of a Newtonian fluid into it from a point source.

It should also be noted that the technological development of unconventional reservoirs is accompanied by the design of new hydraulic fracturing fluids and various additives to them (fibers, flock, etc.), which significantly change the rheological behavior of these fluids. For example, the growing interest in tight and ultra-tight unconventional reservoirs with a high content of clay has led to the development of special compositions with high gas fractions and low water fractions. These fluids do not impair the filtration properties of the rock and do not cause its physical destruction during their injection.

In our monograph, published in 2016, we summarized the fracture models developed by ICT SB RAS. It collects results published in high-ranking journals included in the WoS and Scopus citation databases, such as Engineering Fracture Mechanics, International Journal of Fracture, and others.

5. Why you need a modified model

How the developed crack will be located is more or less known. There is a term preferred fracture plane - the plane of preferred crack propagation. If the stresses (forces) compressing the rock and their directions are known (it is also a problem to determine them, geophysicists are involved in it), then this plane is not difficult to determine. Modern models and simulators focus on the fracture configuration in this plane. When a fracture is just originating from a well, the position and direction are affected not only by stresses in the rock, but also by the well, the casing string, and perforations (holes in the rock), their shape, and size. And the direction of the crack at the beginning of the process does not always coincide with the plane in which the developed crack will lie. Inevitably, a crack curvature occurs, in which crack compression occurs. Such pinching not only can lead to proppant sticking, but also causes a strong pressure drop in the well. Now in simulators, this pressure drop is taken into account using an empirical coefficient - the skin factor, and not very successfully. Our model allows us to more accurately predict and describe this effect.

6. Can the modified hydraulic fracturing model be applied directly to the fields

Initially, IWT was not focused on the implementation of known models and the development of technologies, but concentrated on creating their scientific foundations. However, such foundations also have a direct practical use. For example, at the beginning of the hydraulic fracturing process, more pressure is required to initiate a fracture than to maintain it. And it is not always easy to determine this pressure, but the amount and type of necessary equipment. Approximate analytical estimates are presented in the world literature, there were attempts to calculate, but no final solution to the problem was found. We have developed a fracture initiation model, which predicts both the fracture pressure, the type of the formed fracture, and its orientation based on the configuration and stresses in the rock.

This model cannot be directly applied in the field. Calculation and setup takes some time. In addition, precise knowledge of stress directions, their values, and perforation directions is required. Usually this information is not available, since the accuracy of measurements is not always sufficient, due to the high cost, not all stresses in the rock are measured, the directions of the perforations cannot be accurately determined, since there are several kilometers from the place where the casing string is fixed to the perforations.

But the model can tell which well orientations are the most dangerous from the point of view of unsuccessful hydraulic fracturing, from the point of view of the formation of a longitudinal fracture (which is undesirable in multi-stage hydraulic fracturing), pressure intervals required to start hydraulic fracturing. For example, we conducted such a study commissioned by Schlumberger for a field in Oman, which is located at a depth of more than four kilometers and is highly compressed not only in the vertical, but also in horizontal direction, due to which there were less than half of successful hydraulic fracturing attempts on it.

7. What is the future of hydraulic fracturing in the context of the “new oil”

The current state of traditional oil and gas reserves can be characterized by the word "depletion". Everything large quantity produced from unconventional, hard-to-recover reservoirs. Examples are the carriers of the so-called "shale oil" or, to use the correct term, "tight reservoir oils" in the US and Canada, or the Bazhenov formation in Russia. The latter, although it has huge reserves, is much more difficult to develop. The rock has many features not only in comparison with traditional collectors, but also with the “shales” popular on the American continent. Firstly, these are weak hundreds and tens of times, respectively, permeability and porosity. That is, it contains less oil, and it moves to the well worse. Oil from such rocks cannot be produced without the use of hydraulic fracturing.

Secondly, rocks of this type are characterized by strong layering and plasticity, or rather, fluidity, high pore pressure, which complicates both hydraulic fracturing and its modeling. From the point of view of the latter, it is necessary to additionally take into account the anisotropy of stresses, material, plastic effects in describing the propagation of a fracture, and the nonlinearity of deformations when a fracture settles on the proppant. I would like to note that in addition to hydraulic fracturing itself, the development of this formation requires the solution of many scientific and technological problems, which are being worked on by scientists at Skolkovo and Moscow State University, in St. Petersburg and Novosibirsk.

Russia expects increased sanctions pressure. UK and US are actively looking for new grounds for discrimination Russian business. However, the results of the latest wave of sanctions policy, which began in 2014, are far from unambiguous. Even independent studies show that the Russian fuel and energy complex has not suffered much from restrictions, moreover, they have spurred the development of industry in Russia. According to industry experts, the possible strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions will also not become critical for the Russian fuel and energy complex, but only if the government and energy companies mobilize forces in time to create a domestic engineering industry that produces equipment for the extraction of hard-to-recover oil reserves (TRIZ).

Russia must learn how to extract TRIZ

The day before, the Energy Center of the SKOLKOVO Business School presented the results of its study “ Prospects for Russian oil production: life under sanctions”, which analyzed the impact of the sanctions imposed in the US and the EU on the Russian oil sector, in particular on the commissioning of new traditional fields in Russia, the development of offshore projects, and the production of Bazhenov oil. The authors of the study also made a scenario forecast of Russian oil production until 2030.

The document notes that on the horizon until 2020, despite all the restrictions, Russia has the potential to further increase production volumes at the expense of already prepared fields. This short-term upside, however, may be limited by arrangements with OPEC. In the medium term until 2025, even in the event of severe restrictions on access to technology and a low oil price, production volumes will not suffer catastrophically. Wherein main reason decline in production during this period may be not so much a lack of access to Western technologies to implement new projects, how much lack technological possibilities to intensify production at existing fields.

This study has shown that hydraulic fracturing is the most critical technology for maintaining Russian oil production, as it is able to maintain production at existing fields.

The use of MSHF (multi-stage hydraulic fracturing) promises to increase production in promising unconventional fields.

The authors of the study emphasize that under the current conditions, it is the development of own hydraulic fracturing and multistage hydraulic fracturing technologies, the production of hydraulic fracturing and multistage hydraulic fracturing fleets within the country and the training of personnel should become a technological priority for industry companies and regulators. However, so far, work in this direction is being carried out at a clearly insufficient pace. As the expert of the Energy Center of the SKOLKOVO Business School Ekaterina Grushevenko noted in her report, in the period from 2015 to August 2017, not a single hydraulic fracturing fleet was produced. Rotary-controlled systems, according to the website of the Scientific and Technical Center of Gazprom Neft PJSC, at the end of 2016 were in the testing stage. The expert stressed that already now two thirds of oil reserves are in hard-to-find reserves.

Until 2020, production cuts are not expected

Director of the Energy Center of the SKOLKOVO Business School Tatiana Mitrova in her speech at the presentation of this study noted that the first sanctions against Russia and Russian energy companies were introduced in 2014, but no dedicated studies on their impact on the oil industry have been published.

“We didn't know what result we would get. The first hypothesis suggested that the consequences would be very severe,” Mitrova said. However, the results showed a slightly different picture of the impact of sanctions.

“Currently, there are no serious consequences of sanctions in operating activities companies are not felt. Indeed, production has risen in recent years, despite low prices and sanctions. The oil industry has reported success. But positive current situation should not be misleading, the analysis of the complex of sanctions itself indicates their very broad interpretation, and this is the main threat of sanctions pressure,” the expert said.

According to her, until 2020, according to the simulation results, no reduction in production is expected, since the main projects have already been financed.

“Starting from 2020, negative trends will become more and more noticeable and may lead to a decrease in oil production in Russia by 5% by 2025 and by 10% by 2030 from current production levels. A decline in production on such a scale, of course, is not catastrophic for the Russian economy, but nevertheless it is quite sensitive,” Mitrova said.

She stressed that sanctions are a long history and in order for the Russian oil industry to adapt to them, additional efforts are needed by the state and companies to develop their own technologies and produce the necessary equipment.

“There is a huge part of oil production that directly depends on hydraulic fracturing technology. It is the availability of this equipment that has the greatest impact on the volume of oil production in the country. But the development and implementation of the production of this technology is more of a task Russian government and industry,” the director of the Energy Center explained.

A new industry is required

Head of the "Gas and Arctic" direction of the SKOLKOVO Business School Roman Samsonov in his speech, he noted that, according to his personal observations, in Russia, only against the backdrop of sanctions, one can observe progress in the development and production of its own high-tech equipment.

“The situation with the production of high-tech equipment is difficult, but you can learn how to manage it. In fact, we are talking about creating an entire multifunctional sub-sector of oil and gas engineering,” Samsonov said.

According to the participants of the study “Prospects for Russian oil production: life under sanctions”, such a large-scale task of creating a new sub-sector of heavy engineering in Soviet times was solved only thanks to government directives. In the conditions of modern market economy, in which the Russian Federation is currently developing, the mechanisms for the implementation of this task have not yet been worked out.

However, this is only in Russia. Looking at experience Western countries, which successfully overcome all difficulties for the production of TRIZ, it becomes clear that such a method has long been found. This is most clearly seen in the example of the US shale industry, which was actively lending even during the period low prices which helped her survive. Obviously, such a tolerant attitude of banks to this sector of oil production could not do without state participation. Now the grateful shale players are helping the US authorities to restrain OPEC and other oil producers, actively influencing the global oil and gas market.

Ekaterina Deinego