The production of natural gas from the Gazprom concern for the period from January to August of this year increased by 7.5 percent compared to the previous figure, reaching 325.2 billion cubic meters. Journalists were informed about this today by the head of the board of the Russian gas monopoly, Alexei Miller.

The Chairman of the Board of the holding pointed to the preliminary results of the work during the conference call, dedicated to the Day workers in the oil and gas industry. Last year, Gazprom increased production by 12.4 percent to 471 billion cubic meters. The concern intends to complete the current year with a figure of 476 billion, Mr. Miller specified.

Natural gas exports to the Far Abroad in the period from January to August will increase, as Gazprom expects, by about 5.6 percent compared to last year, to 133.3 billion cubic meters.

In 2017, Gazprom increased its exports to the Far Abroad countries by 8.4 percent, up to 194.4 billion cubic meters. Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of the board of the holding, said two months ago that the export of "blue" fuel in 2018 could be more than 200 billion cubic meters.

Implementation of the Turkish Stream project

Alexey Miller also informed that 1,500 kilometers have already been laid along both lines of the Turkish Stream. The head of Gazprom specified that this is approximately 80 percent of the total length of the forthcoming pipeline.

The Turkish Stream project provides for the construction of a gas pipeline from Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey. Two lines are planned, the capacity of each of which will be 15.75 billion cubic meters.

The first line will be used to supply natural gas to consumers in Turkey, and the second is designed to supply gas to residents of South-Eastern and Southern Europe. At the same time, Gazprom leaders are now exploring options to continue the Turkish Stream through Serbia and Bulgaria, or through Italy and the Hellenic Republic.

Project "Power of Siberia"

Mr. Miller also emphasized that Russian gas will begin to flow to the PRC through the Power of Siberia, as planned, on December 20, 2019.

“A little more than a year is left before the start of deliveries of“ blue ”fuel to China. And today we have absolutely no doubts that from December 20, 2019, natural gas will begin to flow to the Russian-Chinese border, ”the head of Gazprom told domestic media reporters.

According to Alexey Miller, the development of the Chayandinskoye field in Yakutia continues at full speed. The facilities necessary for the start of natural gas production are 50 percent ready today, the specialist assured. By the end of this year, according to him, the bulk of the work within the framework of the installation of the "Power of Siberia" will be completed. Now the equipment is being installed at the facilities of the Amur gas processing enterprise, the head of the Russian gas monopoly specified.

Recall that at the end of last month, Gazprom informed that the construction of 90.5 percent of the linear part of the Power of Siberia was completed. The company plans to complete the bulk of construction and installation work at the site by the end of this year. In 2019, they intend to conduct tests here, install power supply, telemechanics and communications systems, and carry out the necessary commissioning activities.

At the end of spring 2014, the Russian Gazprom entered into an agreement with Chinese corporation CNPC. The agreement provides for the supply of natural gas of Russian origin to China through the eastern route. The document is valid for 30 years. Through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, 38 billion cubic meters of raw materials will be supplied annually.

Production volumes fell short of the 500 billion cubic meters promised in November by Valery Golubev, the company's deputy chairman of the board. m

Last year, Gazprom produced 478.7 billion cubic meters. m of gas. Production volumes fell short of the 500 billion cubic meters promised in November by Valery Golubev, the company's deputy chairman of the board. m. Although in the middle of 2012. Gazprom confidently spoke about plans to produce and sell 528.6 billion cubic meters. m of gas.

The year was one of the most unfortunate for Gazprom, RBC daily reports. In the last two years, the company's production performance has only grown: in 2010. they amounted to 508.6 billion cubic meters. m of gas, and in 2011 - 513 billion cubic meters. m. Spoiled the picture of the fall in demand for Russian gas from European countries. According to the CDU TEK, the decline in exports of Russian pipeline gas to non-CIS countries following the results of 2012 was 3.5%.

Gazprom announced its intention to maintain the level of deliveries to Europe in the amount of 150 billion cubic meters. m of gas. Exports to the CIS countries also decreased - by 12.3%. Production indicators of Gazprom in 2012 actually turned out to be at the level of the worst crisis for him in 2009. (then production amounted to 461 billion cubic meters).

The production of the monopoly was supported by a cold December. As Alexey Miller, the head of Gazprom, noted in the middle of the month, the company observed "an unprecedented increase in deliveries to the European market." At the same time, a historical daily record of gas supplies to Europe was recorded - 550 million cubic meters. m.

Domestic demand also grew - by 0.4%. Production in the last month of the year amounted to 49 billion cubic meters. m of gas, an increase of 2.9% over the same period in 2011. Of these, about 19.7 billion cubic meters. m was sent for export (an increase of 13%).

According to Nikolai Podlevskikh of Zerich Capital Management, December's production growth brought about $1bn in revenue for Gazprom. And if it weren't for the abnormal cold, then the monopoly's production would have dropped by 8% (473.6 billion cubic meters).

In general, gas production in Russia in 2012 amounted to 655 billion cubic meters. m, down 2.3%. It was possible to level out Gazprom's indicators at the expense of independent producers. Thus, NOVATEK produced 51.034 billion cubic meters. m of gas (an increase of 5.9%), oil companies - 67.571 billion cubic meters. m (growth 5.7%).

Experts expect an even greater deterioration in the results of Gazprom's activities, both due to competition in domestic market, and because of the diversification of supplies to the outside. "The company is further threatened by a decrease in the share of gas supplies to Europe due to competition with Qatar and the prospect of Iran entering this market (using the new Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline)," N. Podlevskikh believes.

It should be reminded that in accordance with the investment program of Gazprom for 2013, the main priorities of expenditures for capital construction in the field of production are the development of the Bovanenkovskoye, Medvezhye, Urengoyskoye, Yamburgskoye and other fields.

The main priorities of the investment program in transportation are the increase in capacity main gas pipelines Bovanenkovo ​​- Ukhta, Ukhta - Torzhok, Gryazovets - Vyborg and implementation of the Southern Corridor project.

In accordance with the program, the total investment next year will amount to 705.41 billion rubles. At the same time, 658.455 billion rubles will fall on the share of capital investments, of which 655.158 billion rubles will be spent on capital construction, 3.297 billion rubles on the acquisition of non-current assets in Gazprom's ownership, and the volume of long-term financial investments- 46.955 billion rubles.

Perhaps, every trader thought about the levels from which it is better to buy shares of Gazprom, wanting to buy securities of a reliable company. But if we are talking about companies and their companies, then it would be wrong to think in terms of reliable / unreliable. You need to understand what exactly the company does, on what scale, what its profit is and how it is distributed. That is, it is necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of the chosen investment objects. Actually, in this article we will tell you what one of the largest companies in terms of capitalization on the Russian stock market, Gazprom, is, and also discuss the value of its shares today.

Gazprom today

Gazprom is the global state energy company oil and gas sector. The main activities of Gazprom are the production, transportation, processing and sale of gas and oil, as well as geological exploration, production and sale of heat and electricity. Gazprom operates not only in Russia, but also actively participates in major foreign projects.

At the moment, Gazprom is the absolute leader in Russia in terms of natural gas reserves - its reserves by Russian standards exceed 36 trillion cubic meters. m. Oil and condensate reserves amount to 3.6 trillion tons. These reserves represent 17% of the world's and 72% of Russia's, with Gazprom producing over 400 bcm annually. m of gas, which is 11% of global production and 66% of total production in Russia. Thus, in 2016, Gazprom produced 419.1 billion cubic meters. m of gas, 15.9 million tons of gas condensate and 39.3 million tons of oil. Gazprom operates in all major oil and gas regions of Russia: in Eastern Siberia, the Far East, the Yamal Peninsula, the Arctic shelf, as well as in more than 30 countries near and far abroad.

One of the main assets of Gazprom is an extensive network of pipelines through which resources are transported both across Russia and to foreign countries. Gazprom owns one system Gas Supply of Russia (UGSS) This network has a length of 171.4 thousand km, and its operation is provided by 253 compressor stations, as well as 22 underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in Russia. Moreover, Gazprom's pipeline network is constantly developing.

The Gazprom Group also owns a network of generating assets that produce 14% of the capacity of the Russian energy system, which is 38.7 GW. These assets include companies such as Mosenergo, MOEK, TGK-1 and OGK-2.

Now let's talk about Gazprom's trading instruments. Its depositary receipts are traded on the London Stock Exchange (1 receipt is equated to 10 shares), and on the Moscow Stock Exchange - shares (Gazprom issued 23,673,512,900 shares, and Gazprom's capitalization averages 3 trillion rubles) and bonds. Also there to trade derivatives - futures and options contracts. It is worth saying that Gazprom shares, as a rule, have low volatility, they can either grow or decline, and quite long time. It is worth saying that Gazprom shares are among the most liquid shares and have the highest specific gravity in the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices.

History of the Gazprom Group of Companies

The history of Gazprom dates back to the formation of the Ministry of Gas Industry of the USSR in 1965, which was formed in connection with the discovery of large gas fields in Siberia. Actually, this Ministry became Gazprom (Gazprom State Gas Production Concern) in 1990 by decision of the Council of Ministers of the USSR. And on February 17, 1993, the Gazprom concern was transformed into RAO Gazprom by decree of President Boris Yeltsin. Viktor Chernomyrdin, who has served as prime minister since 1992, is appointed head of Gazprom.

In 1994, the voucher privatization of Gazprom began. In 1996, Gazprom held an IPO on the London Stock Exchange, where it placed 1% of its shares in the form of ADRs (depository receipts), selling them for $15.75. Thus, Gazprom raised $429 million, and in 1997 also issued bonds for $2.5 billion. , and V. Chernomyrdin was removed from his post.

With the coming to power of Vladimir Putin, the reformation of Gazprom begins. In 2002, the government instructs Gazprom to form a gas transportation system in the East of the country. And in 2003, the first commercial gas supplies began through the Blue Stream. In 2005, Gazprom takes control of a 75.6% stake in Sibneft, which becomes the foundation for Gazprom's oil business. In 2006, Sibneft was renamed into Gazprom Neft. Also in 2005, the state will increase its stake in the company's share capital to 50% (compared to 38.4% in 2004).

Since 2007, the gradual formation of Gazprom as a leader in the production of electricity begins. In 2011, Gazprom launches the Nord Stream project and delivers the first gas through it. In the same year, Gazprom became the leader among all companies in the world in terms of net profit, showing it in the amount of $44.5 billion. development of the Arctic shelf. In the same year, Gazprom for the first time began to use underwater gas production on the Sakhalin shelf.

In 2014, the stage of development of relations with China begins, which was marked by the signing of an agreement with CNPC on 30-year gas supplies to the Chinese side, in connection with which the construction of the large-scale Power of Siberia pipeline begins. At the end of the same year, Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding with Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation on the construction of the Turkish Stream pipeline. In 2015, Gazprom signs an agreement with a consortium of European oil and gas companies to build another large-scale Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Thus, we can say that Gazprom is a unique company that owns a network of pipelines through which fuel is supplied not only in Russia, but also to countries near and far abroad.

Conclusion

Gazprom is a fairly stable and high-quality company in terms of financial results, but still investors want to see better net profit dynamics and its direction in dividend payments to a greater extent than in financing the investment program. But it is impossible not to notice that Gazprom is a strategic Russian company that provides an energy dialogue with the outside world, therefore it is not so much a business project as an element of political influence.

Even the Ministry of Energy does not expect an increase in gas consumption in Russia, recalls Dmitry Marinchenko, Director of Fitch Corporations. “I would not rule out the possibility that Gazprom will be able to slightly increase sales within the country,” the expert continues. – But expectations for an additional increase in production in Western Siberia and Yamal by 15-35 billion cubic meters. m per year, they say that the company expects a corresponding increase in consumption primarily in Europe.

2017 was for Russian company record for gas exports. Gazprom delivered 194.4 billion cubic meters to non-CIS countries. m, and its share in the European gas market has grown to 35%.

Gas production in continental Europe "continues to fall," Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of the board of Gazprom, said in January. “The growing European demand for natural gas was covered by import supplies. Contrary to expectations, LNG has become far from the only source of these volumes,” the top manager pointed out. – In 2017, Norway increased its supplies to European markets by 6%. Gazprom's gas exports grew even faster. At the same time, European regasification terminals remained significantly underloaded.” Opportunities for "Gazprom" to increase its share in the European market have not yet been exhausted, he specified.

Kiril Polous Head of Department 123, Gazprom

We were scared for several years by a significant loss of market positions in Europe, and as a result, 2017 ended with another record for the export of Russian pipeline gas, and 2018 began with the supply of Russian LNG to the United States. The share of gas supplied by Gazprom to Europe may reach 35–38% by 2030, and increase to 38–41% by 2035.

Whether the demand for gas in Europe by 2025 will be such as to match Gazprom's production directly depends on the temperature and on the pace of development of renewable energy in the region, says Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis. “England has a conservative forecast for this year - about 24% will be the share of renewable energy. Coal generation is falling sharply, wind generation is growing strongly, the process of switching to renewable energy sources cannot be stopped, the expert lists. “But if cold weather persists in the region for the next seven years, then Gazprom’s consumption will be secured.”

The structure of gas supplies to Europe by 2025 may change significantly, Marinchenko suggests: “The lack of global gas liquefaction capacities may lead to the fact that most of the LNG currently supplied to Europe will be transported to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.” Given the decline in its own production in the EU, this may give Gazprom the opportunity to increase its share in the European market. “To sell an additional 35 billion cubic meters in this direction. m year is, of course, an optimistic scenario, Marinchenko argues. - But to increase exports to Europe by 10-15 billion cubic meters. m the company may well.

We give an opportunity to the widest possible range of people to taste investments. For this, the portal www.investars.ru was created. On it you can get knowledge about investing and become the owner of investment units of funds managed by Arsagera absolutely free of charge.

Gazprom disclosed operating and financial results according to IFRS for 2016.

As the first result of the reporting, we note the increase in gas production rates (+0.1%) to 420.1 billion cubic meters, in the first half of the year the backlog was 4.2%.

An even stronger picture was observed in the field of gas sales: in aggregate terms, they increased by 6.8%. At the same time, this result was entirely due to a sharp increase in export deliveries to Europe (+23.8%). Such a strong growth in supplies can be explained both by the cheapness of contract gas, which demonstrates the dynamics of oil prices with a certain lag, and by the fears of European customers regarding transit through Ukraine.

Unfortunately, such a sharp increase exports could not fully dampen the fall in export dollar prices by 28.3% (in ruble terms, prices fell by 21.9%). As a result, revenue from gas supplies to Europe decreased by 1.2% to 2.14 trillion rubles.

A different picture is observed in gas supplies to countries former USSR and Russia. In the first case, the company recorded both a decrease in sales volumes (-17.6%) and prices (-13.8%), while the overall decrease in revenue in ruble terms amounted to 27.9%. As for the Russian segment, the 2.8% decrease in deliveries was offset by an increase in ruble selling prices (+4.8%). As a result, revenue from sales in Russia increased slightly, amounting to 820 billion rubles. (+1.8%).

Among other income items, noteworthy is the growth in revenue from the sale of oil and gas condensate (+58.1%), as well as the double-digit growth rate in the income of the electric power division (+13.4%). As a result, the total revenue of Gazprom added 0.6%, amounting to 6.1 trillion rubles.

The company's operating expenses added 11.1%. Gas purchase costs rose by 7%, driven by the continued effect of the completion of an asset swap deal with Wintershall Holding GmbH, which resulted in Gazprom gaining control of a number of gas sales and storage companies. Crude oil spending increased by 24% due to growing demand for oil in Europe and increased activity of the Gazprom Germania Group in the Asian oil markets (China and South Korea), as well as with an increase in the volume of oil purchases in the domestic market. Expenses for the transit of gas, oil and refined products increased by 14%, which is mainly due to an increase in the cost of transiting gas through the territory of Ukraine and Germany. As a result, sales profit decreased by 40.9% and amounted to 726 billion rubles.

In the line of financial items, the company recorded a total positive balance of 560 billion rubles, associated with the formation of positive foreign exchange differences in the loan portfolio. The total debt of Gazprom for the year decreased from 3.4 trillion rubles. up to 2.8 trillion rubles, the maintenance of which cost the company 71.6 billion rubles. Note that this amount is less than interest receivable, which amounted to 93.5 billion rubles. A favorable positive balance allowed Gazprom to record a net profit of 951.6 billion rubles, which exceeded the figure of a year ago by 20.9%.

It is worth mentioning that the company purchased from Vnesheconombank 211 million ordinary shares of PJSC Gazprom and American depositary receipts for 639 million ordinary shares of PJSC Gazprom. As a result, the share of shares owned subsidiaries PJSC Gazprom at the end of 2016 accounted for 6.6% of the total number of shares of PJSC Gazprom. At the moment, Gazprom is not considering the possibility of redeeming its quasi-treasury shares, but the company has intentions to increase its presence on the key stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region, including increasing the listing level of global depositary receipts on the Singapore exchange and obtaining a listing on the Hong Kong exchange. For our part, we would consider redemption of quasi-treasury shares to be the most optimal way to dispose of them, given the significant gap between the current market price and the book price of the share.

Based on the results of the published financial statements, we have revised our net income forecasts for future years, reflecting the higher volumes of export sales of natural gas and the lower growth rate of the gas export price for the current year.

At the moment, the number one topic is the size of dividends for 2016. The board of the company proposes to leave dividends at the level of the previous year until 2019. In 2016, Gazprom spent RUB 186.8 billion on dividends for 2015. (almost 24% of net income under IFRS). State-owned companies were supposed to send 50% of their profits under IFRS or RAS (from the one that is greater) to dividends, but Gazprom managed to achieve an exception. This year, the Ministry of Finance proposed to require half of the net profit under IFRS from state-owned companies without exceptions. Recall that in the coming years, Gazprom is expected to heavy expenses: the concern may spend 4.6 billion euros on three construction projects of the Power of Siberia, Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream gas pipelines. The company plans to receive 638 billion rubles. from the sale of assets and new borrowings in the current year. But within a year, Gazprom will have to repay 10.5 billion euros (about 670 billion rubles at the current exchange rate).

Raising the payout bar to 50% of profits would set a good precedent for future years. Taking into account the growth of the tax burden in 2017 and current projects, Gazprom is likely to be allowed to limit payments to 25% of IFRS - at the level of 200-250 billion rubles, based on profit for 2016.

The company's shares are currently trading at a P/E 2017 of around 6 and remain one of our priorities in the oil and gas sector.

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« We can't change our models»

In your methodology and book, emphasis is placed on "management quality" as well. So we must take into account that the management of this company works in such a way that all the "potential profit" seeps through the fingers management company and goes into the pocket of the state by roundabout ways. And minority shareholders receive shares in the flat and rations in the amount of inflation.



While Severstal (and shareholders' funds) could triple over the past few years.

« And you don’t want to change your mathematical model so that it doesn’t include papers that steal money from investors ... If the state doesn’t want to share the income of the national treasure, don’t ...»

That's why I didn't use PIF data. It's a pity.

« “It's hard to disagree with you. Of course, the distribution of funds through the payment of dividends looks much fairer. ” Artem, July 6, 2018 at 17:39 Even Lukoil, which seems to be heavily dependent on oil, is already much higher than pre-crisis prices and even pre-crisis highs ... GP is - sucks! And you analyze something there and continue to keep it ... But you don’t want to change your mathematical model so that it does not include papers that take money away from investors ... If the state does not want to share the income of the national treasure - no need ... We need to look for those who share their income... I don't understand at all why GP was included in Arsagera's portfolios for so many years... As I bypassed GP, I never regretted it!»

« It's hard to disagree with you. Of course, the distribution of funds through the payment of dividends looks much fairer.»

And you don’t want to change your mathematical model so that it doesn’t include papers that steal money from investors ... If the state doesn’t want to share the income of the national treasure, don’t ... You need to look for those that share income ... I don’t understand at all why for so many years the GP was included in the portfolios of Arsagera ... I bypassed the GP, I never regretted it!

« Good afternoon! Does Gazprom currently have any tax concessions compared to other oil and gas companies?»

Gazprom has targeted benefits for a number of fields, the same is true for other oil and gas companies.

« »

Good afternoon! Dmitry, for Gazprom in 2017, we forecast net profit of about 695 billion rubles. (EPS RUB 29.3), gas production in our model is set at 447.4 bcm. Perhaps our current forecast may turn out to be somewhat conservative. We plan to return to updating the company's model based on the results of the release of financial statements for the six months. A possible increase in forecasts for the prospects of this stock in our portfolios will not be of decisive importance, since the current yield seems to be quite high anyway.

« If gas prices continue to remain at current levels, then what net profit does Arsagera predict for Gazprom, taking into account the commissioning of the Power of Siberia, Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2? Considering that the latter will only replace the Ukrainian gas transportation system, it can be assumed that profits will eventually grow by 20 percent.»

Dmitry, for Gazprom by 2020, we forecast a return in net profit to the mark of 1 trillion rubles, and the level of gas production, according to our forecasts, may reach 465.5 billion m3.

« And instead of a postscript. You campaigned for a buyback in 2014. Give Gazprom's own funds to shareholders. And they did not see these prospects. And Gazprom's strategists were pushing through all these "streams". It turns out they are right. Do you still think that a buyback is needed?»

Good evening. Thank you for your questions. Our model for Gazprom assumes growth in gas export sales (to Europe and non-CIS countries) compared to 2013. At the same time, attention should be paid to the current trends regarding the structure of gas sales - the growth of export sales to non-CIS countries will replace declining supplies to the countries of the former USSR and falling sales on the domestic market. The current potential profitability of the company's shares (quite high, according to our estimates) is determined by the three-year period for entering the area of ​​the Arsagera bisector and the forecast ROE for 2019 is about 7%. At the same time, we still continue to believe that the appeal to the principles of the equity management model is a hidden reserve for the market value of Gazprom shares. We have not approached the company's Board of Directors with a proposal to hold a buyback of shares in 2015 and 2016, since formally Gazprom's ROE for 2014 and 2015 was was low. However, a buyback in the Gazprom situation can be considered as an alternative to paying dividends and looks preferable both for tax reasons and because, in the event of a buyback, the company itself would demonstrate the fact that it considers its shares undervalued and profitable to buy. . That said, we do not believe that, other things being equal, a buyback would have a significant impact on Gazprom's financial stability. The implementation of current investment projects is financed mainly own funds companies. From the beginning of 2012 to June 30, 2016, Gazprom's net borrowings amounted to RUB 119.2 billion. In this regard, we do not believe that the buyback recommended by us for 85 billion rubles using borrowed money could jeopardize financial position monopolies, on the other hand, could indicate an increase in the level of corporate governance.

« Hello! revision financial indicators in models occurs not only together with the reporting output.»

Clear! Thank you very much, Elena, for the detailed comment!

« Hello Gregory. Gazprom has a fairly good potential return, firstly, because of its cheapness and, secondly, as a result of certain changes in the MUAK in terms of the steady growth of dividend payments. Nor can we disregard the large share of Gazprom in the MICEX index: we would not like to increase the deviation of the structure of our portfolios from the market average.»

Hello, Elena! And if the index reflects a sub-optimal economy, then why repeat the sub-optimality? GP is actually not cheap, even if it cannot even pay 50% of the PE without tension. In addition, it is necessary to assess the scale of the investment programs of the SOEs, which they simply cannot reduce for various reasons. These investments are often supportive, often with low returns. In addition, it is not difficult to see the huge impact of the political component on the SOE. There is something to buy from the "dovecote" and besides the GP and RN.

« “It is necessary to leave the GP altogether, since they do not at all meet the quality requirements of the corp. management.” Grigory, April 28, 2016 at 12:30 pm Gazprom is quite effectively managed in the interests of its main shareholder (the state), so making a cash profit is not and will not be a fundamental task in the near future.»

Quite right. What is the point of buying for a private investor?

« It is necessary to leave the GP altogether, since they do not at all meet the quality requirements of the corp. management.»

Gazprom is quite effectively managed in the interests of its main shareholder (the state), so making a cash profit is not and will not be a fundamental task in the near future.

« Hello. I am a shareholder of Gazprom shares. It occupies a small part of the portfolio, but it is there. Rumors with a pipe, so far only rumors, but even if it comes to real events, it is clear that this can be a positive thing. Now there are new rumors: buyback! How positive is this in terms of MUAK? And in general on quotes? Again, earlier, Gazprom’s p / e was sometimes 1.3, and now it jumps over 20. Yes, the first half of 2015 seemed to be better in terms of net profit, but in any case, this is not 1.3, not even 5. And as in such a situation is it for the company? Reducing the dividend load may be positive, but is it realistic to implement?»

Hello Ruslan. For 2 years in a row (in 2013 and 2014) we sent letters to members of the Gazprom Board of Directors proposing and justifying the buyback of shares. About what effect this could have on quotes and on corporate governance, you can read here. http://website/dobycha_pererabotka_nefti_i_gaza/gazprom/obrawenie_k_sovetu_direktorov_oao_gazprom_o_provedenii_obratnogo_vykupa_akcij/ This year we did not send such a letter due to the fact that the company's IFRS reported profit for 2014 was low, albeit due to the influence of one-time factors, while the ROE was only 1.6%. By breaking news, the buyback rumors were refuted by a source in Gazprom management. In our opinion, when evaluating a company by the P/E multiple, it is better to take into account the profit of the next year. According to our forecasts, Gazprom shares are now trading with a P/E 2015 of about 3.5, as we expect a profit of about 1 trillion rubles for the current year. According to the MUAK, in the situation with Gazprom, it is logical to use net profit to buy back shares, you can read more about this here. http://arsagera.ru/kuda_i_kak_investirovat/investicionnyj_likbez/bissektrisa_arsagery_chast_1/ Despite the fact that Gazprom is not going to buy back, the payment of dividends can be called acceptable. Otherwise, if the dividends were not paid, the shareholders would own the company, which fully develops the funds earned at a decreasing percentage (the company's ROE decreases), while the shareholders could use the received dividends into financial instruments with a comparable, but less risky potential return.

« Arsagera's opinion on the "partition" of Gazprom is also interesting https://news.mail.ru/economics/23449729/?frommail=1 Is it beneficial to shareholders? As far as I understand, these news do not have any influence on the results of the hit parade»

Yes, indeed, at present, the forecast of Gazprom's financial results is based on the existing corporate structure. The effect of such a separation will be evaluated by us, and changes will be made after the official and specific announcement. Separately, it should be noted that as of the end of 2014, the gas transportation segment accounted for 41% of total assets and just over a third of the Group's capital investments.

« How will Putin's new "tax maneuver" initiative affect Arsagera's forecast for Gazprom's profits and other indicators next year?»

After the mechanisms for calculating the new tax burden are disclosed, we will adjust our financial results. We expect net income to decline, but according to preliminary estimates, the company's shares will remain on the list of priorities.

« We focus on 25%. We hope that from profit under IFRS.»

What is the dividend yield obtained to the current quotes? I guess about 10%. Not bad. Such financial instrument by definition should be worth more than the current value. Maybe, with such dividends, investors will pay attention to Gazprom in a year. The share price will grow by 2 times, P/E will approach 5, there will be a discount to the book value, and investors, in addition to dividends, will receive +100% yield for the year. And after all, this is a completely realistic scenario, you just need to give an impetus.

Artem, please explain: 1. Why does the state need state-owned companies to pay high dividends? 2. What is the significance of the level of quotations of its shares on the stock exchange for a state-owned company, provided that it is not going to get rid of them?

« Serious funds are needed to seriously move the quotes of such a giant. In conditions when investors not only do not invest in the country, but also withdraw money from it (look at the dynamics of capital outflow, say, since 2007), this becomes doubly problematic. So, the attitude can only be changed by concrete deeds, for example, by increasing dividend payments. And even better - the introduction of the Equity Management Model, which we proposed to do to the Board of Directors of the company by sending a letter there. Under current conditions, even more effective tool would be a buyout by Gazprom of its own shares with their subsequent redemption. Unfortunately, while we see rather reverse steps (senseless additional issue). So, a significant reserve for the growth of the company's exchange rate dynamics lies in raising the level of its corporate governance.»

« The main shareholder is not interested in making a monetary profit, and that says it all »

Naturally, we are not talking about the destruction of Gazprom. It's just that some other company (for example, Novatek) will be pulled up to it. It is incorrect to compare Gazprom with Rosneft or Sberbank, because in addition to these companies, Russia is full of other large oil companies and banks (by the way, VTB24 is also openly pulled up to compete with Sberbank). The state today does not need to earn money, therefore, when managing state-owned companies, there is no expectation that they increase profits for their owner. On the contrary, this profit is actually given away for the development of private competing companies (like the same Novatek). As for Gazprom, there will still be negative ahead. For example, the extension Customs Union will be at the expense of the same Gazprom (he will have to reduce prices for new members). And the same Ukraine will pay not 400 dollars for 1000 cubic meters - but 150. Gazprom will also have to become an operator in Kyrgyzstan, where the gas business is unprofitable due to banal non-payments. Events such as the CIS football championship, where Gazprom is supposed to become the main sponsor, should also not please its shareholders.