Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in production area is calculated based on data provided by purchasing managers for production volume items, new orders, inventory levels and employment. PMI is one of the key indicators of the state of the economy of the country issuing the indicator.

PMI calculation

The PMI index consists of five important components, each of which has its own fixed percentage in the total value of 100%:

• the number of new orders in the production segment (new orders), which are assigned 30%;
• the employment rate is 20%;
• production volumes (production) 25%;
• inventory indicator (inventories) 10%;
• activity of suppliers (supplier deliveries) 15%.

In order to determine the values ​​of these individual factors, which add up to the total percentage value for a given period, all managers are asked a series of simple questions. At the same time, the answers do not imply a detailed nature, but must correspond to the option used in the tests, that is, “yes”, “has not changed” and “no”.

The questions themselves are designed in such a way that the structure of the answers allows you to make an objective logical conclusion regarding the current indicator, which will be demonstrated by the PMI index.

To compile an index of manufacturing activity PMI, managers - participants in the survey - will get their opinion on:

• intensity of production volumes (Production);
• the number of new orders for export (New export orders);
• commodity value (Commodity prices);
• employment level (Employment);
• deliveries (Vendor deliveries);
• import volumes (New import orders);
• the number of orders received from customers (New orders);
• volumes of goods for short-term deliveries (Items in short surply);
• status of the portfolio of unfilled orders (Order backlogs).

How does the publication of the manufacturing PMI index affect the exchange rate?

Excess value 50 indicates the growth of the manufacturing sector and is a positive factor for the national currency. A drop in the PMI below 50 is indicative of a slowdown.

PMI index in the manufacturing sector, it belongs to survey or diffusion indices and allows you to track the dynamics of the economic cycle, being a leading indicator. The observed close correlation of the manufacturing PMI with economic dynamics allows predicting future growth rates.

It should be noted that the PMI index of business activity should be interpreted not on the basis of its momentary values. The specificity of its influence lies in the accuracy of determining economic cycles in the long term. So, for example, if a value exceeds the 50% level, it can be expected that the largest increase in business cycles will be recorded after seven months.

It should also be taken into account that a decrease in the value to 35% is a sure economic stagnation, which indicates serious problems in the country's economy, which, of course, will find its direct reflection on the national currency rate. At the same time, if the index stays above the 44% mark, then the reaction of investors will be ambiguous, since such values ​​usually indicate the possibility of a quick recovery, which means that such data does not give serious reasons for concern.

When are manufacturing PMIs released?

Eurozone countries and the UK

• Publication date: twice a month (provisional and final indexes)
• Source: Markit Economics
• Website: www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases

• Publication date: monthly
• Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
• Website: www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport

China

• Publication date: monthly
• Source: Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation
• Website: www.hsbc.com

Useful related articles

Currency quotes online

Fortrader Suite 11, Second Floor, Sound & Vision House, Francis Rachel Str. Victoria Victoria, Mahe, Seychelles

PMI (NationalAssociationofPurchasing, PMIindex) is a report on the results of a survey of managers (managers) in the industry. The PMI index is used to evaluate the change in the volume of industry output, the number of new production orders, inventory, and the speed of suppliers. The purpose of an economic indicator is to provide information on the formation pricing policy, about the development trends of business and the economy as a whole. The PMI index (also called NAPM) is measured as a percentage (%) from 1 to 100.

Business Activity Index Formula

PMI = 0.30∙(New Orders) + 0.25∙(Production) + 0.20∙(Employment) + 0.15∙(Supplier Deliveries) + 0.10∙(Inventories)

New Orders- New orders;

production- Production;

Employment- Employment;

Supplier Deliveries- Supplies;

Inventories- Stocks.

Survey participants respond to simple questions. Typically, response options are limited to "yes", "no" and "no change". Given the structure of the questions, a logical conclusion suggests itself that the value of the index will be greatly influenced by psychological factors, due to which the actual readings will be slightly distorted.

The questionnaires for participants included the following items:

Production- production;
New orders– how many orders customers have made;
New export orders– new export orders;
Order backlogs– a portfolio of unfulfilled orders;
Commodity prices- commodity prices;
Inventories of purchased materials– Purchased inventories of materials;
Imports (New import orders)– import (new import orders);
Employment- employment;
Vendor deliveries (Delivery time)- delivery time;
Items in short supply (Supplier)- goods of short-term delivery.

The PMI index is published at 10-00 EST (Washington) or at 18-00 MSK (Moscow) by the National Association of Purchasing Managers. Publication Date: Usually the first business day of the month.

Impact on the Forex market

The PMI manufacturing activity index has a limited impact on the foreign exchange market.Despite this, for long time index study (40 years), PMI proved to be a fairly reliable indicator in predicting business cycles. It has been found that when PMI values ​​are high (above 50%), the peak of the business cycle is reached in about 7 months. If the PMI values ​​are low (less than 50%), the decline in the business cycle is reached around the 3rd month. The psychological threshold of 44% is also important. If the index falls below this value, this indicates that the economy has begun a recession (recession), which may adversely affect the growth rate of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). An economic recession is usually accompanied by a PMI level of 34-35%. If the index stays above the 44% mark, recovery will occur at a rapid pace.

The PMI business activity index is classified as a leading indicator, and is often analyzed with other fundamental indicators, namely the industrial production index ( industrial productionIndex) and the Prices diffusion index.

In the economy, in addition to direct indicators such as gross domestic and external product, industrial production growth or the cost of the consumer basket, there are derivatives. PMI PMI is one of them, characterized by powerful calculations and research, but having an indirect impact on the economic sphere.

The business activity index is a conditional value showing changes in the behavior of structures and companies in the current economic situation compared to the previous reporting period - a week, a month, a year. If an enterprise reduces production volumes, cuts employees, closes branches, it is considered that the business activity index is decreasing. If output and sales are growing, new markets are opening up and the order book is growing, the business activity index is growing.

The business activity index appeared in the United States of America at the beginning of the 20th century as Purchasing Manager Index(PMI). The Institute of Supply Management was a pioneer in the development and implementation ( Institute for Supply Management, ISM), founded in 1915.

Initially, its specialists called the industrialists of the city of Tampa and asked one question: how are you?

There were three possible answers to choose from: worse, better, and the same. From this the conclusion was drawn: if the vast majority of people are doing worse last month, so the PMI is falling. If everyone has spoken it is better”, therefore, PMI went uphill. True, this method had a significant drawback: it was the subjectivity of the judgments of businessmen, as well as the influence of mood, unjustified hopes, and family troubles.

Specialists ISM decided to develop a methodology that would realistically reflect the Index. In 1948, letters were sent to the respondents, where they were asked at the end of each month to “tune up” their performance indicators and compare them with the previous reporting period. Of course financial side remained classified, but businessmen received a kind of "funnel" containing data on:

• the number of orders;
• output volume;
• team employment;
• warehouse stocks;
• the price of imports and exports.

Such a scheme has disadvantages. If the number of orders and the volume of output can be calculated, then the employment coefficient is conditional - often the respondent works alone from morning until late evening. Warehouse stocks in companies working “for the client” could be equal to zero or one (which side to look at), and the price of imports and exports was of little concern to anyone.

Business activity index in different countries

In 1951 the Bank Japan introduced the indicator TANKAN(短観), short for kigyō tan ki keizai kan soku chōsa - short-term economic forecast. It was based on the work of the Institute for Economic Research of West Germany IFO. True, by 1957 the Japanese had developed an independent indicator, which retained its former name, but somewhat changed the calculation method.

By the way, in Germany The Business Climate Index was launched in 1949 IFO is an acronym for I information (information) und FO rschung (research). The American system served as the basis here, since in the post-war years the United States generously “exported” to Europe the foundations of its economic structure, calculation methods and indices.

It is no coincidence that IFO and PMI are extremely similar.

In Great Britain PMI appeared in 1991, and here it really concerned purchasing managers. The old-world lions reasoned that it was these specialists who saw the greatest state of the market. True, the indicator, developed by the Royal Institute of Purchasing and Supply of Great Britain, was soon transferred to operational management Markit Ltd.

In Russia there is Entrepreneurial Confidence Index, calculated Federal Service state statistics. It is published monthly, more than 4 thousand medium and large enterprises three sectors of the economy "Mining", "Manufacturing", "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water".

On average, the Index is 47-48% (which indicates the uncertainty of business), but does not have any impact on the Russian economy.

Impact of the PMI

Over time, PMI has moved from the category of theoretical indicators to conditionally applied. Without having a significant impact on asset quotes or derivatives prices, PMI shows the mood and expectations of investors. In the same States, PMI is calculated in only two versions - industrial and service sectors - and the number of respondents is slightly more than 700.

The Bank of Japan initially tried to include everyone it could: in 1957 there were 524 respondents, and in 2015 there were more than 11 thousand from 93 sectors of the economy. Considering that TANKAN is published quarterly and an entire institute works for it; But there are still ratings calculated in the prefectures!

Great influence on the market is exerted by the British Markit Ltd, which calculates the index for 34 countries of the world. In 2009, it was launched in China under the name Caixin PMI, and differs in the composite scheme. About 400 enterprises are included in the calculation, as industrial plan as well as the service sector. And two years earlier, in 2007, Markit LTD launched the combined Eurozone PMI index.

The decline in the business activity index in the country should alert a trader investing in the instruments of this state. It's about slowing down economic growth, which means that we can conclude that a recession is coming. When news of a decrease in IDA is released, it is advisable to sell existing assets and transfer funds to developing instruments.

The decline in the US Index leads to a fall in dollar quotes against the main competitor - the euro. In parallel, the quotes of manufacturing companies and government debt bonds are declining - they are the first to be hit. It is difficult to say how urgent it should be to get rid of depreciating assets: the IDA is similar to a pendulum and shows a constant fall and rise.

First of all, as in any other macroeconomic statistics, attention is drawn to the dynamics. If it is positive (that is, the current value of the indicator exceeds the previous one), then the value of the asset/currency may increase. If business activity decreases (there is a negative trend), this may provoke a depreciation of the asset/currency. It is important to understand that the longer the trend, the more significant the reaction can be. If the business activity index continues to decline from month to month, this may indicate that they will also decline.

What else should you pay attention to when working with PMIs? It is believed that if this indicator is above the mark of 50 basis points, then in general, business activity is in the growth zone. If the indicator falls below 50 points, then there is a reduction in business activity.

• investments in competing assets;
• sale of assets and investment in them after N-time (after depreciation);
• transfer of funds to assets less dependent on IDA - food, telecommunications.

Trader's actions with the growth of IDE:

• investments in the real sector of the economy - it always rises in price more strongly;
• work with currency pairs against a competing currency;
• attracting derivatives with bullish play.

Video about PMI

The formula for calculating the PMI

US PMI is calculated as the sum of scores of five business factors: PMI = 30% (orders) + 25% (production) + 20 (employment) + 15% (supplies - the same imports and exports) + 10% (stocks). The figure obtained during the sampling is compared with the indicator of 50% (“golden mean”). If it is less, PMI falls, if it is more, it grows. Posted on the 1st of each month.

In Germany, the IFO index calculated according to the American model, but put on a scale from -100 to +100. The reference period is the year 2000, when the PIIGS problems had not yet touched the Eurozone, and Germany was not burdened with a monstrous debt burden. The publication of the index takes place at 08:00 German time (-2 hours in Moscow) on the last working day of the month.

In Sweden PMI calculated since 2009, representatives of 200 companies participate in the survey. It is similar to the American methodology, but here orders are allocated 35%, sales volumes 25%, employment and deliveries - 20% each. The index operator is SwedenBank, the world does not pay much heed to the Scandinavian PMI: the state is not a key player and is not even a member of the European Union.

In Japan, TANKAN is published twice a year, at the end of June and December at exactly 08:50 (14:50 Moscow time), 10 minutes before the start of the exchanges. This was done to influence the trading in the beginning half of the year and determine the dominant - bulls or bears. It is noteworthy, but it includes only one digit. Extended information, with explanation and reports, comes out in a week or two.

In the Land of the Rising Sun, two types of surveys are used within TANKAN: quantitative (than bigger company, the more significant her word), and qualitative, where each respondent has one vote. When calculating the index itself, the diffusion principle is applied, where the arithmetic mean of the listed surveys is taken.

Instead of output

It is believed that the Business Activity Index has an indirect impact on the economy, as it is too vague and incorrect. Although a competent investor, tracking the macroeconomic situation, may notice a direct connection. For example, in February 2015, published statistics from China dropped the indices of the Asia-Pacific region. MSCI Asia Pacific shed 0.3%, NIKKEI - 0.7%, Shanghai Composite - 2.6%.

In 2013, after publishing the IFO, Germany brought down the euro-dollar pair below 1:1.3, which was regarded by investors as surrendering the positions of the “locomotive of Europe”. And in February 2016, Chinese statistics, the worst since 2012, drove up the prices of gold, silver and futures in the US. Then ETFs joined in and began to “merge” palladium and platinum, which led to a drop in prices.

If you find an error, please highlight a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter! Thank you so much for your help, it is very important for us and our readers!

The US manufacturing business index (PMI) improved last month and rose unexpectedly to 57.7% from 56% a month earlier, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

PHOTO: EPA/DEAN LEWINS AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT

The index of business activity in the US industry (ISM Manufacturing) in February 2017 unexpectedly went up and reached 57.7% compared to 56% in January, such data is provided by the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM).

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the index to remain at its January level. Thus, the data cheered up the market and suggests that the market is holding business activity and the economy is gaining momentum.

The situation has also improved with consumer incomes, which increased last month by 0.4%, and spending by 0.2%. Analysts had expected the pair of income and expenses growth in monthly terms to increase by 0.3%.

At the same time, according to the research organization Marit Economics, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US worsened in February 2017 to 54.2 points compared to 55.0 points a month earlier. So the indicators turned out to be lower than the forecasts of analysts who bet on 54.4 points.

The report states that manufacturing activity in the US is on course for expansion and development at a rapid pace. Although the latest recovery was slightly weaker than seen at the beginning of 2017, this largely reflected the moderation in new orders growth after hitting a 28-month peak in January, along with a slightly weaker increase in production volumes. Meanwhile, manufacturers reported a solid rise in inventory levels, driven by longer production schedules and expected improvement in customer demand.

As previously reported, the eurozone manufacturing PMI is at its highest in 6 years. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of 19 eurozone countries in February 2017 rose to 55.4 points compared to 55.2 points a month earlier, according to final data from research organization IHS Markit.

The figure hit a 70-month high, reflecting the biggest improvement in operating conditions in almost six years.

The preliminary score was 55.5 points.

"Companies are clearly looking forward to continued favorable conditions. Firms are more optimistic about the outlook this year than at any time since the debt crisis in the region," said Chris Williamson, senior economist at IHS Markit. "Companies are reporting stronger demand both domestically and in export markets, with a weaker euro boosting sales."

EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT

Greece continues to show a decline in manufacturing activity, while in other countries there is a positive trend. At the same time, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany recorded the highest growth in manufacturing PMI, Williamson said.

The indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany rose from 56.4 points in January to 56.8 points in February. The indicator reached its highest level since May 2011.

France's manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.6 to 52.2 last month. The index reached its lowest level in three months.

Meanwhile, Italy's manufacturing PMI rose from 53 to 55, the highest since December 2015.

Spain's manufacturing PMI was 54.8 in February compared to 55.6 a month earlier. Despite the decline, the indicator continues to show a significant improvement in operating conditions in the manufacturing sector in Spain.

At the same time, the indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector of Greece rose from 46.6 points in January to 47.7 points in February. PMI showed the decline in business activity in the country's manufacturing sector for the sixth month in a row, although the pace of decline was lower than in the previous month.

Today also released data on Russian market, Russia's manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.5 in February from 54.7 in January, according to IHS Marit.

Thus, Russia's manufacturing PMI reached a 4-month low last month, but continued to indicate a significant improvement in market conditions relative to the long-term average.

An indicator below 50 points reflects a decrease in activity, above - an increase in activity.

Source: IHS Markit

Production volumes and new orders continued their strong growth in February. However, the increase in the corresponding indicators was the lowest since September, reflecting the slowdown in the sector as a whole.

The growth of new orders was once again held back by the fall in export orders, which has been observed for three and a half years.

Employment growth also slowed in February. Some companies have hired additional staff in order to increase production capacity, while others have streamlined operations by cutting jobs.

Purchasing activity in the manufacturing industry also declined, but the pace of growth remained substantial and was above the long-term average. At the same time, inventories have been reduced. finished products and raw materials.

Purchase prices rose again in February, but inflation was the second lowest in four years.

Despite slowing activity last month, companies expect rising demand, new long-term contracts and a rebound in economic growth to boost production over the next 12 months.

"February data continues to point to a healthy sector. Market conditions are up in the context of long-term averages. Most encouragingly, the degree of optimism was the brightest since May 2015," said Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit.

At the same time, the growth of manufacturing activity in the US slowed down in February compared to the previous month, being less than analysts' expectations. Companies are spending and investing less.

The index of business activity (ManufacturingPMI) in the US manufacturing sector in February fell to 54.3 points from 55.0 points a month earlier, according to data from Markit Economics, which calculate this indicator. Analysts polled had expected a slight decline to 54.7 points.

The index of business activity (ServicesBusinessActivityIndex) in the US services sector went down from 55.6 points in January to 53.9 points in February. Although analysts had forecast a rise to 55.8 points, preliminary data from IHS Markit show.

Thus, the slowdown in the services sector in February suggests that there is a significant decline in new orders, and this was the worst indicator in the last five months. The Services PMI in February is also at its lowest level since September 2016.

“In February, we saw a sharp bounce back in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector. This suggests that companies have become more cautious in their spending and investments. In general, the indices remain at the level and correspond to an economic growth of 2.5 % year-on-year in the first quarter," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit.

As previously reported, the PMI of the US services sector rose in September to 51.9 points. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US services sector rose to 51.9 points in September 2016 from 51 points in August, according to preliminary data from IHS Markit.

An indicator below 50 points reflects a decrease in activity, above - an increase in activity.

The growth of business activity in the services sector in September was the highest since April.

At the same time, the US services sector registered a decline in business confidence.

"The services sector gave mixed signals in September, with faster growth in activity during the month offset by gloomy leading indicators. Although business activity posted the strongest gain since April, new business inflows slowed and employment growth was the weakest in three and a half years. Decline in optimism for over the coming year to near post-crisis lows cloud the outlook," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit.

“Moreover, even despite the recent surge in activity, overall economic growth remains weak. If you add these results in the services sector to data on industrial production, business activity indices indicate that the annual growth of the economy is only about 1% in the third quarter," the expert said.

Extremely popular in recent years in economic statistics are indicators based on the method of constructing the so-called diffusion indices. Indices of this kind, which by their nature are indicators of the business optimism of business participants, are regularly published (under the namesPMI) inUSA,England and Germany, where they are created by the respective associations of businessmen; they are used both to assess the direction of public opinion and to measure the dynamics of objective indicators. In Japan, a similar indexTANKANadopted by the Central Bank of Japan itself as a tool for analyzing the dynamics of economic processes for making decisions in the field of monetary policy.

Diffusion indices, unlike many other indicators of socio-economic statistics, are purely subjective indicators. They do not measure the volume of output, the number of orders, income, etc., but are only a reflection of how participants in economic processes perceive the changes taking place - whether they are for the better (in their opinion) or whether they lead to deterioration. Despite such subjectivity, or rather, precisely because of it, these indices have extremely strong predictive properties; they are leading indicators that are highly correlated with the main parameters of economic cycles..

Diffusion index (diffusionindex) built onthe results of a survey of a large number of participants, each of which answers a question such as "have your business conditions improved in terms of: new orders, prices, labor market, lead times, new export orders, etc."; at the same time, he chooses one of three answer options: "yes", "no", "no change". The diffusion index value is calculated for a specific question as the sum

DI = (% of those who answered "yes") + 0.5 *(% of those who answered "no change");

having calculated such diffusion indices for each question, they are then averaged, obtaining composite average indices such as PMI or TANKAN. They very effectively track the dynamics of the economic cycle, being leading indicators: the beginning of the fall of the index after a period of growth predicts the transition of the business cycle from the expansion stage to the recession (recession), and an upward turn after the fall predicts the beginning of recovery. The close correlation of diffusion indices with economic dynamics, estimated from long-term statistical data, makes it possible to use them even for forecasting future GDP values ​​(at least for a quarter ahead).

Such indices are published today by almost all G7 countries, for example, in England they have been built since 1991. The German PMI has been published since 1998, it includes an overview of 350 companies on the following five issues: output, new orders, employment, supplier's delivery times, inventory purchases ( stocks of goods purchases).Since 1999, the combined PMI for the Euro-region has also been released, covering 11 countries with a single euro currency (EU PMI). Association of Purchasing Managers), which has been conducted since 1931; only the staff providing statistics was up to 300 people.

We will consider in detail the structure and properties of business optimism indices using the American index as an example.Purchasingmanagers" Index (PMI), NAPM. American Association ReviewNAPNunderlying its PMI index, includes questions that the survey participant is asked to answer - whether the conditions of his business have changed for the better over the past month (answer "higher”), for the worse (“lower”), or remained unchanged (“unchanged") in relation to the following factors:

Employment,

Prices (commodity prices),

Delivery time (vendor deliveries),

Production (production),

Stocks (inventories),

New customer orders (new orders from customers),

New export and import orders (new export and import orders),

Accumulated unfulfilled orders (order backlogs, this item was introduced in 1993 at the suggestion of the current chairman of the Federal Reserve System A. Greenspan).

For each item in the questionnaire, a diffusion index is determined (the percentage of "higher" responses plus half the percentage of "unchanged" responses), and then a weighted sum is constructed from them, which is an average PMI index; in 1994, the formula for PMI was as follows:

PMI = 0.30XDI(new orders) + 0.25XDI(production) +

0.20 x DI(employment) + + 0.15 x DI(deliveries) + 0.10 x DI(inventories)

Interpretation of the PMI index.The main property of PMI is a leading business cycle indicator. There are a number of main levels of the indicator for interpretation:

Cycle high and cycle low;

50% - level;

44% - level.

If, after a period of growth, the PMI turns down, then this predicts a downward reversal of the business cycle. On the contrary, if after the fall of PMI, having reached a minimum, it turns up, then this is a sign of a future recovery. According to 40 years of US statistics, PMI predicts the highs of growth cycles in an average of 7 months and the lows of growth cycles in 3 months.

Rice. 14.2. American index of business optimism N ARM PMI

A fall in PMI below 50 predicts a two-month average recession, while a fall below 44 always predicts an absolute decline in economic activity. The lows reached by PMI during the downturns average 35, and after reversing from the low, it reached 44 on average over 4 months, which always coincided with the low of the business cycle. In general, PMI reliably predicts the turning points of growth cycles (that is, cyclical changes in the stages of economic growth), but it is difficult to distinguish the growth cycle from the overall global economic cycle using it (according to US statistics after World War II, 82% of all business cycle peaks were accompanied by recession, that is, growth cycles - a fairly rare phenomenon).

Statistical studies have shown a very strong correlationPMIwith such parameters of the economy as industrial production andGDPgenerally. For example, with a high degree of accuracy, based on data for 1980-1992. a formula was derived linking the PMI value with the indicator of industrial production (IP - industrial production) two months later:

IP= 0.52 xPMI[-2] - 23,4;

from it, in particular, it can be seen that the value of PMI = 45.9 corresponds to stable industrial production (1Р=0). A similar formula shows the relationship between PMI and GDP in a quarter:

GDP= 0.317 xPMI[-1] - 13,9.

It is also noted that the diffusion price indices Dl(prices) are leading indicators of turning points in the inflationary cycle.

It should be noted that when reading the indices of business optimism, you may encounter negative values, although the indices defined above are obviously limited by the range . This is due to the fact that some statistical organizations use a slightly different definition of the index, namely, they takeNPR(net percentage rising) equal to the percentage of those who answered "higher» minus response rate «lower', which is associated withDIobvious ratio

NPR = 2 x (DI - 50).

PMI-type indices are monthly and are published on the first business day of the month. Exception - JapaneseTANKAN- quarterly. The Japanese index is also an exception in that it is created by a non-professional business association, as in other countries, and government agency- the Central Bank, and is an officially declared benchmark in making decisions regarding monetary policy. Therefore, the publication of the Japanese indexTANKANis always an event in the currency markets.

The properties of business optimism indexes explain why the markets are so attentive to the moment of their publication, and also show that the collection and analysis of PMI index statistics can provide a lot of useful information for a trader.