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Recently, in economically developed countries there has been a growing trend in the use of more formalized models of enterprise financial management. Moreover, the degree of formalization directly depends on the size of the enterprise: the larger it is, the more often its management should use these methods in the implementation of financial policy. In view of the fact that there are a large number of large enterprises in Ukraine, the problem of choosing an effective method for assessing financial condition is an urgent problem. Despite the fact that there are a large number of assessment methods, the process of modifying them and creating new options continues. The economic literature discusses a fairly large number of methods for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise, which were developed by domestic scientists.

In Western countries, about 60% of large and 20% of small and medium-sized enterprises use formalized quantitative methods in practice to manage financial resources and analyze the financial condition of the enterprise (FSP).

The basis for forecasting FSP is the study of financial and economic activities in the past period, as well as changes in external and internal business conditions in the future. As a rule, the FSP forecast is presented in the form of two alternative directions:

1) a forecast of one or more individual indicators that are of the greatest interest and significance for the analyst, for example: sales revenue, profit, cost of production, etc.;

2) a forecast in the form of enterprise reporting tables in a standard or enlarged nomenclature of articles.

Thus, the first direction uses historical data as the basis for forecasting each line item in the balance sheet and income statement. The main advantage of this direction is that the resulting forecast makes it possible to comprehensively analyze the FSP. Consequently, the enterprise analyst receives maximum information that he can use for various purposes, for example, to calculate the acceptable rate of increase in production activities, the required amount of additional resources from external sources, the calculation of any financial ratios, etc.

The second direction is divided into two trips. In the first approach, each item in the balance sheet and income statement is forecast separately, based on its individual dynamics. In turn, the second approach takes into account the existing relationship between individual items both within one reporting form and from different forms. After all, various reporting lines must change dynamically in a consistent manner, since they characterize the same economic system.

One of the methods for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise is the method of expert assessments. This method involves a multi-stage survey of experts using specially developed schemes, as well as processing the results obtained using economic statistics tools. The application of this experience, as a rule, in practice consists of using the experience and knowledge of commercial, financial and other managers. Typically, this approach ensures that decisions are made in the simplest and fastest way. However, this method has its drawback - high forecasting inaccuracy and lack of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Therefore, expert estimates are most often used to predict revenue, profit and market share.

There are also deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or strictly determined connections, when each value of a factor characteristic corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant characteristic.

The next method is the method of proportional dependencies, which is based on identifying the most important indicators that could be used as base ones to determine the forecast values ​​of other indicators. For example, many enterprises use enterprise revenue to determine the cost of products sold.

Let's consider a balance model for forecasting the economic potential of an enterprise. The balance sheet of an enterprise can be described by various balance sheet equations that reflect the relationship between the assets and liabilities of the enterprise. The simplest of them is the basic balance equation, which has the form:

where: A – assets,

E – own capital;

L – obligations of the enterprise.

Thus, the balance sheet model gives management an excellent opportunity to calculate the forecast value of one of the parameters of the equation: total assets, equity capital or borrowed funds, subject to the availability of values ​​for the other two.

Stochastic methods have a probabilistic nature, both for forecasting and for the relationship between the indicators being studied. In this case, the probability of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the number of empirical data.

The method of simple dynamic analysis is that the predicted indicator (Y) changes directly or inversely over time. Therefore, to determine the predicted values ​​of the Y indicator, the following relationship is often used:

Yt = a + b * t (2)

where: t is the serial number of the period.

As a rule, the regression equation parameters (a, b) are found using the least squares method. By substituting the required t value into formula (2), the required forecast can be calculated. This method is most suitable for forecasting revenue, since changes in this indicator over time most often occur in accordance with a trend built on the basis of data from previous periods.

The method of autoregressive dependencies is that economic processes are characterized by interdependence and a certain inertia. The inertia of processes means that the value of almost any economic indicator at time t depends on the state of this indicator in previous periods. The autoregressive equation in its most general form has the form:

Yt = A0 + A1 * Yt-1 + A2 * Yt-2 +…+ Ak * Yt-k (3)

where: Yt - predicted value of indicator Y at time t;

Yt-i - the value of the Y indicator at time (t-i);

At - i-th regression coefficient.

To build a forecast of any indicator, taking into account existing relationships between it and other indicators, multivariate regression analysis is used. First, as a result of qualitative analysis, the analyst identifies k factors (X1, X2,..., Xk), which, in his opinion, influence the change in the predicted indicator Y, and, as a rule, builds a linear regression relationship of the type:

Y = A0 + A1 * X1 + A2 * X2 +…+ Ak * Xk, (4)

where Ai are regression coefficients, i = 1,2,...,k.

The values ​​of the regression coefficients (A0, A1, A2,..., Ak) are determined using standard statistical computer programs.

As a rule, multifactor regression analysis is used to predict the values ​​of current and non-current assets of an enterprise.

The main criteria when choosing an effective method for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise are the accuracy of the forecast and the completeness of the presentation of the future FSP. From this point of view, of course, the best methods are those that allow the construction of forecast reporting forms. In this case, the future state of the enterprise can be analyzed in no less detail than its current position.

Literature:

1. Bakanov M.I. Sheremet A.D. Theory of economic analysis: Textbook. – 5th ed., revised. and additional / M. I. Bakanov, A. D. Sheremet, - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. - 526 p.

2. Kovalev V.V. Introduction to financial management / V.V. Kovalev. – M.: Finance and Statistics, 2009. – 768 p.

3. Efimova O. V. Financial analysis / O. V. Efimova. – M.: Accounting, 2008. – 208 p.

4. Dubrov A. M. Multivariate statistical methods / A. M. Dubrov, V. S. Mkhitaryan, L. I. Troshin. – M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. – 350 p.

It is obvious that entrepreneurship is an activity related to investing funds and generating income. Funds are invested today, and income will be extracted tomorrow. In order to assess the possible amount of income and the effectiveness of investments, it is necessary to determine not only the sequence of actions and calculate their expected result, but also the future state of the enterprise and the external environment, including the conditions for selling products, and the behavior of competitors. possible structure of assets and sources of their financing, etc. And without these assessments, calculations of the effectiveness of investments are unlikely to satisfy the minimum reliability requirements. Determining the future state of an enterprise and its environment based on existing trends is forecasting. Whether we realize it or not. but when making any planned or unplanned decisions. assessment of their possible consequences is a mandatory management action. And it is better that this action is carried out systematically and correctly as much as the available information allows. Assessing the consequences of decisions and actions for an enterprise, taking into account current trends in changes in the external environment and the state of the enterprise, or forecasting differs from planning these actions and decisions only in that when planning we are guided primarily by the goal that must be realized, that is, based on the goal, we plan the sequence actions and the required resources for their implementation. When forecasting, the result or the possible degree of achievement of goals is the probable consequences of decisions made or planned. In this sense, forecasting is a necessary component of planning and management. And the success of planning and. Consequently, the management of the enterprise's activities will be completely determined by the quality of forecast estimates of the consequences of decisions made.

Main goals of forecasting

Forecasting the results of an enterprise’s activities and its financial condition is carried out with the aim of:

• assessment of economic and financial prospects and the expected financial condition of the enterprise for the planned period, depending on the main possible options for its production and sales activities and its financing,
• on this basis, forming well-founded conclusions and recommendations regarding the choice of a rational strategy and tactics of action for the top management of the enterprise.

Strategic and tactical decisions may include the production and sales program of the enterprise for the planned period, the planned structure of assets, including current assets, a fundamental scheme for financing the assets and activities of the enterprise for the planned period, the opportunity to implement one or another investment project, etc. That is, any decision on the use of financial resources and the consequences of the implementation of this decision for the financial condition of the enterprise can be subjected to a predictive assessment.

Taking into account the extremely unstable financial condition of a significant part of Russian enterprises. One of the tasks of financial forecasting may be opportunity assessment. basic conditions and terms for normalizing the state of the enterprise. that is, the possibilities and conditions for its financial recovery. In this sense, financial forecasting is a necessary element of crisis management.

Financial positioning in the enterprise management system

Forecasting, as noted above. is a necessary component of management and one of the main conditions (according to R. Braley and S. Myers - Principles of Corporate Finance) of effective planning and this determines its importance in the enterprise management system. Any decision must be preceded by an analysis of the current situation and a forecast of the possible consequences of its adoption or non-acceptance.

To make analysis and forecasting procedures concrete, eliminate abstract assumptions like “What if...” and bring the decision-making process within the boundaries of accepted strategic priorities, it seems advisable to determine the normal parameters of the enterprise’s activity within each planning (forecast) period, that is, the main indicators of its performance , considered the norm. In this case, the analysis and forecasting processes will have the main content of comparing the actual (predicted) values ​​of the enterprise’s operating parameters with normal ones, and the planning process will be the development of measures to bring the real state of the enterprise to normal.

Forecasting methods

The financial condition of an enterprise can be quite correctly described using three classical models: the balance of income and expenses, the balance of assets and liabilities, and the balance of receipts and payments. These same models make it possible to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the enterprise. Therefore, the methodological basis for forecasting the financial condition and performance of enterprises should be these three balances. The balance of income and expenses, which describes the results of the enterprise’s activities for the period, the balance of assets and liabilities, which creates the financial image of the enterprise and characterizes the structure of its assets and liabilities, and the balance of receipts and payments, which represents the movement of funds between the enterprise and its counterparties and gives a complete picture of the dynamics collection of receivables and financing of all operations of the enterprise for the period, together form the financial model of the enterprise. Therefore, forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise and the results of its activities is the process of creating options for the financial model of the enterprise. taking into account any possible decisions on the formation of a production and sales program, on the implementation of investment projects, on the acquisition of materials and raw materials, on determining the timing of commercial loans to consumers, on the formation of a wage fund, on the purchase of three brooms, etc. and so on.

The process of forming a financial model of an enterprise (and forecasting its condition) has the following sequence. The first is to develop a balance of income and expenses. The projected (planned) results of the enterprise's activities for the period and the initial state of assets and liabilities are the basis for designing the balance sheet of assets and liabilities. The contents of the two previous balance sheets allow you to calculate (precisely calculate!) the flow of receipts and payments for the period.

Since the formation of three balance sheets is an absolutely formalized procedure, the rules of which are determined by accounting standards, and the relationships between balance sheets are equally formalized, the process of financial forecasting can be easily computerized. This allows you to quickly, in real time, make assessments of the consequences of any possible financial decisions.

The procedure for carrying out the procedure for forecasting the financial condition and performance of an enterprise includes, firstly. preparation of initial information about the state of the enterprise and preparation of planning decisions, divided into six blocks. Block one – the initial state of the enterprise’s assets and liabilities, financial reporting data. Block two – planned (predicted) sales volume and conditions for product sales. This is information from the sales (marketing) service. Block three – planned investments and disinvestments in non-current assets. This information is prepared by the financial department on the basis of preliminary (project) planning decisions on the technical development of the enterprise. Block four - forecasted warehouse stocks of finished products and materials at the end of the period, balances of work in progress, the amount of accounts receivable and other elements of current assets. Forecast estimates should be made by the financial department after consultation with the relevant services of the enterprise. Block five - decisions on changing the authorized capital and paying dividends. Block six - project decisions on financing the activities of the enterprise for the forecast period, including obtaining and repaying long-term and short-term loans, changes in the amount of commercial accounts payable, balances of arrears of wages and payments to the budget and extra-budgetary funds. In addition, for modeling it is necessary to use a computerized tax calculation unit or enter information about the amount of payments calculated by other methods to be paid to the budget and extra-budgetary funds during the forecast period. The second step is to structure the initial information in a certain way, that is, enter it into appropriate formats (tables). Further, based on this structured information, a financial model of the enterprise and forecast balances of income and expenses, assets and liabilities, receipts and payments are created. The resulting balances are the basis for making decisions.

Forecasting period, forecast options

The forecasting period can be fundamentally anything: from a month to fifty years. His choice is determined. firstly, the purposes of forecasting. that is, the nature of the decisions. to be accepted using forecast estimates, and secondly, the reliability of the initial information. Obviously, it makes no sense to make forecast calculations when there is an error in some data, for example, sales volume. exceeds 15 – 20%. Such a forecast makes little sense, since decisions whose consequences have a probability of implementation of + 20% can be made without laborious forecast calculations. In the current conditions of Russia, forecast calculations can give quite correct results when choosing a forecast period from several days to 2 – 2.5 years. This choice is due to the fact. What. on the one hand, to assess the immediate prospects, a short-term forecast is necessary: ​​on the other hand, in order to rationalize the choice and evaluate the strategy and tactics of action, the top management of the enterprise should evaluate its prospects for at least 2 years. since during this period investments in more or less effective investment projects pay off.

To assess the impact on the financial condition and performance of the enterprise of probable changes in the main factors (sales, costs, etc.), it is advisable to carry out forecast calculations using several options with different initial data (production program, production cost structure, investments, etc.). In practice, it is customary to most often evaluate the future in three options: pessimistic. optimistic and realistic. This allows managers! the enterprise should be prepared for unexpected troubles. and luckily for the occasion.

On the procedure for generating initial data for forecasting, the main assumptions that are appropriate when carrying out forecast calculations. We plan to cover the technique of calculations and methods for interpreting the results in the following articles of this series.

graduate work

1.3 Methods for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

financial property profitability solvency

There are usually four methods for predicting the financial stability of a business entity:

Extrapolation;

Turnover timing method;

Budgeting method;

Method of preliminary (forecast) balances.

Extrapolation

When using the first method, it is assumed that there is a direct relationship between working capital and sales volume, which can be expressed using a simple ratio (the ratio of net working capital to sales volume). Or using the coupling equation:

where a is the constant value of net working capital;

b is a regression coefficient reflecting the degree of dependence of working capital on sales volume.

Knowing the value of these coefficients and the projected sales volumes, it is possible to determine the need for net working capital (financial and operational need for working capital).

However, this method is quite simplified, since it takes into account a single factor - sales volume, while the level of need for short-term financing largely depends on the turnover period of inventories, accounts receivable and payable, etc. .

Turnover period method

The second method for determining net working capital is based on studying the duration of the production and commercial cycle: the inventory turnover period plus the accounts receivable turnover period minus the accounts payable turnover period multiplied by one-day sales turnover.

However, this method has its drawbacks, since turnover periods are not normative, but change under the influence of various factors and therefore, in turn, require forecasting and clarification.

The budgeting method is based on planning the receipt and expenditure of funds, including from core, investment and financial activities, described in detail by O.F. Efimova “Financial Analysis”. The calculation of deviations between receipts and payments shows the planned change in funds and creates the basis for making appropriate management decisions. Forecasting cash flows allows you to determine the extent of excess and shortage of cash in the turnover of the enterprise. The reality of forecasts for the receipt and expenditure of funds depends on the degree of their uncertainty.

Method of preliminary forecast balances

One of the methods of financial forecasting is the preparation of a forecast income statement and a forecast balance sheet, most fully covered by D.A. Pankov “Accounting and Analysis in Foreign Countries”. Forecast reporting can be prepared at the end of each month, quarter, or year. It will allow you to establish and evaluate the changes that will occur in the assets of the enterprise and the sources of their formation as a result of business operations for the planned period of time.

The forecast balance can be drawn up on the basis of a system of planned calculations of all indicators of production and financial activity, as well as on the basis of the dynamics of individual balance sheet items and their relationships. Computer programs for financial modeling can provide great assistance in developing forecast financial statements and models of the financial condition of an enterprise.

A comparison of the forecast values ​​of balance sheet items with the actual values ​​at the end of the reporting period will make it possible to determine what changes will occur in the financial condition of the enterprise, which will make it possible to make adjustments to its production and financial strategy.

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Assessment of financial analysis of OJSC "Magnit"

Analysis and forecasting of the financial condition of the enterprise

The main goal of the company is to maximize profits by ensuring competitiveness and operational efficiency. To achieve the main goal, OJSC Magnit is given the following tasks, the solution of which will allow us to achieve the desired result:

1) Ensuring sustainable growth of the company’s economic performance indicators;

2) Expanding the range of services provided to the company’s clients in the main and other types of activities;

3) Formation of a corporate governance system through unconditional respect for the rights of shareholders, ensuring maximum transparency and information openness of the company’s activities, organizing an effective system for monitoring and assessing the quality of company management;

4) Maintaining a positive image, forming constructive relationships and obtaining support from investors;

5) Ensuring reliability of supplies, increasing operational efficiency, and using technical potential.

An analysis of the property status of the enterprise showed that in the company in question, accounts receivable greatly exceed accounts payable. Accounts receivable can arise both in the event of shipment of finished products to customers (provision of services) to the customer without advance payment, and in the event of violation of delivery deadlines for advances paid to suppliers. Overdue receivables also mean an increased risk of non-payment of debts and reduced profits. Therefore, the company needs to reduce the repayment period of payments due to it.

Payments can be accelerated by improving calculations, timely execution of settlement documents, prepayment, and using the bill of exchange form of payment.

Based on the analysis and assessment of the risk of loss of liquidity of the company, we can conclude that, relative to the main balance sheet proportion, the Magnit company is not absolutely liquid, since the company's long-term liabilities exceed the value of slowly realizable assets and hard-to-realize assets are greater than stable liabilities, this indicates that that the most liquid working capital of the enterprise is not enough to cover the amount of accounts payable.

But regarding the liquidity ratio analysis, the company is completely absolutely liquid by all ratios, which means the company is able to pay off current liabilities at the expense of current assets. Thus, the company can pay off its obligations urgently. Even taking into account the low probability that all creditors of the enterprise will simultaneously present their debt claims to it

Analysis and assessment of financial stability showed that the company has absolute financial stability. This means that the company is independent from creditors and inventories and costs are fully covered by its own resources.

Based on the analysis of business activity, we can conclude that OJSC Magnit has high turnover and profitability ratios, which indicates a significant level of business activity.

To improve operational efficiency, you should:

Reduce accounts receivable. This will lead to an acceleration of the turnover of current assets, a reduction in the operating and, accordingly, financial cycle, as a result of which profitability will increase;

Monitor the status of settlements with customers for deferred (overdue) debts;

Monitor the ratio of accounts receivable and accounts payable. A significant predominance of receivables creates a threat to the financial stability of the enterprise and makes it necessary to attract additional (usually expensive) funds;

Renew fixed assets, acquire new technologies;

Invest in profitable projects of other business entities in order to receive profitable interest;

Repay bank loans and other obligations ahead of schedule in order to reduce debt servicing costs.

First, let's predict the balance sheet of the enterprise in Table 12.

Table 12 - Forecast balance for 3 years

From this table 12 we can draw the following conclusion.

Non-current assets decreased, as did all of its sub-items, i.e. fixed assets and long-term financial investments.

Current assets increased due to all items except inventories; during the forecast period they had a negative trend.

In total, the value of assets over 3 years increased by 37,252,964 thousand rubles.

Table 13 - Forecast liquidity indicators of OJSC "Magnit" for 3 years

In this table, we can say that the absolute liquidity ratio has increased over the forecast period compared to 2014, as well as the quick liquidity ratio and the agility ratio.

Table 14 - Forecasting the financial stability coefficients of OJSC "Magnit" for 3 years

Table 14 shows a decreasing trend for all indicators. In particular, the financing ratio decreased; by 2017, the forecast showed negative values; this will not have the best effect on the enterprise.

Table 15 - Performance indicators of OJSC "Magnit" for 3 years

Table 15 shows how there was an increase in return on assets, as well as return on equity. As for the profitability of current assets and the profitability of products sold, they are declining in the same way as in 2013.

Bankruptcy is, as a rule, a consequence of the combined action of internal and external factors. In developed countries with a market economy, a stable economic and political system, the ruin of business entities is 1/3 associated with external factors and 2/3 with internal ones.

Let's consider one of the main approaches to forecasting the financial condition from the perspective of possible bankruptcy of an enterprise:

Thus, the Altman index is a function of certain indicators characterizing the economic potential of an enterprise and the results of its work over the past period. Table 16 displays the Altman model for the OJSC Magnit enterprise.

Table 16 - Altman model for the enterprise OJSC "Magnit" for 2012-2014 and forecasting for 3 years

This table 16 allows us to draw a boundary and make a judgment that the dynamics of the increase in this indicator is positive - Z>2.99.

Table 17 shows the Z-score values ​​and the probability of bankruptcy.

Table 17 - Degree of bankruptcy probability

Consequently, we can conclude that the financial condition of our enterprise at this stage is quite stable (Z = 43.047), i.e. There is no possibility of bankruptcy. The accuracy of the forecast for one year is 95%, for two - 83%. As for the forecast value, it also increases over 3 years, which is a positive effect for the activity of the enterprise.

And the final stage will be forecasting the number of stores of OJSC “Magnit” for 3 years in table 18.

Table 18 - Number of stores in OJSC "Magnit"

In Table 18, one can also observe a gradual trend of increase in all indicators, this means that the enterprise is developing and every year more and more stores of different types are opening.

To further improve the financial and economic activities of OJSC Magnit, it is necessary to carry out the following measures:

a) Reduce accounts receivable turnover, which can be achieved by improving settlements with customers. It is necessary to find opportunities and take measures to return a possible part of the receivables. In the future, it is necessary to prevent the possibility of overdue receivables, for which you can take an advance payment for services rendered, set fixed payment terms and develop a system of fines for their violation or a system of discounts for timely payment. In addition, the organization needs to continuously monitor the status of accounts receivable and promptly identify and eliminate negative trends. These measures will lead to an additional influx of funds, through which the Company will be able to pay off its creditors. This will improve the financial stability of OJSC Magnit.

b) It is necessary to carry out all possible measures to reduce costs - the main source of increasing profits. A serious reserve for this is the expansion of production, an increase in the volume of gas supplies, and an increase in the range of services provided. Thus, with a larger volume of production, other things being equal, the amount of profit received by the enterprise is greater.

Of utmost importance in the struggle to reduce production costs is compliance with the strictest savings regime in all areas of the Company’s production and economic activities. OJSC "Magnit" needs to pay special attention to the range of products, reduce the level of resource intensity, and also, if possible, develop more favorable terms of contractual relations with suppliers, since these factors have influenced the increase in costs.

c) Consistently implement a regime of saving all resources, reducing production and management maintenance costs.

Table 19 - justification for the economic effectiveness of the proposed recommendations

From this table we can draw the following conclusion:

The absolute liquidity ratio increased by 137% and amounted to 2.223. Thus, the company can pay off its obligations urgently. In this regard, taking into account the acceptability of the conditions prevailing at the enterprise, it can be considered liquid according to the forecast year 2015.

The quick liquidity ratio, as well as the current liquidity ratio, increased by 84% and amounted to 3.332. This indicator is of great interest to creditors of OJSC Magnit. This indicator also allows us to determine to what extent current assets cover short-term liabilities.

The agility coefficient increased by 23% and amounted to 0.462. This indicates the sufficiency of the enterprise's own funds in mobile form.

The independence coefficient decreased by 8% and amounted to 0.576. This characterizes the share of funds invested by the owners in the total value of the enterprise's property.

The financial stability coefficient decreases by 9% and amounts to 0.721. This change means that the enterprise’s risk is maximum; having sold property formed from its own funds, the enterprise will not repay its debt obligations.

The funding ratio decreased by 54%. The value of this indicator suggests a rather low financial stability of the enterprise and a high risk for its creditors.

Return on assets increased by 27%. This means that for every ruble invested in total assets, the enterprise will receive a profit of 51% in the forecast year.

The return on current assets of the enterprise decreased by 34% and amounted to 68.693.

Return on investment, as well as return on equity, increased by 29%.

The profitability of products sold decreased by 56%. This means that for every ruble of products sold, the enterprise will receive 11% profit in the forecast year.

The probability of bankruptcy increased by 26%. This means that in the forecast year, the probability of bankruptcy decreased by another 26%.

The last indicator characterizing the total number of stores at the OJSC enterprise"Magnit" increased by 28%. This means that in the forecast year the company will open 12,469 stores.

In general, we can say that in subsequent forecast periods, the company will improve its financial condition and production.