Appendix 1. METHODS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN BUSINESS

3. Main stages of forecasting and types of forecasts

The construction of a forecast and the associated construction and experimental testing (verification) of a probabilistic statistical model are usually based on the simultaneous use of two types of information:
- a priori information about the nature and substantive essence of the analyzed phenomenon, presented, as a rule, in the form of certain theoretical laws, limitations, hypotheses;
- source statistics characterizing the process and results of the functioning of the analyzed phenomenon or system.

The following main stages of forecasting can be distinguished.

1st stage(staged) includes the determination of the final application goals of forecasting; a set of factors and indicators (variables), a description of the relationships between which we are interested in; the roles of these factors and indicators - which of them, within the framework of the specific task, can be considered input(i.e. fully or partially regulated or at least easily registerable and predictable; such factors carry meaning explaining in the model), and which ones - on weekends(these factors are usually difficult to predict directly; their values ​​are formed as if in the process of functioning of the modeled system, and the factors themselves carry a semantic load explainable).

2nd stage (a priori, pre-model) consists of an analysis of the substantive essence of the process or phenomenon being studied, prior to the construction of the model, the formation and formalization of the available a priori information about this phenomenon in the form of a number of hypotheses and initial assumptions (the latter must be supported by theoretical reasoning about the mechanism of the phenomenon being studied or, if possible, by experimental testing).

3rd stage (information-statistical) consists of collecting the necessary statistical information, i.e. recording the values ​​of the factors and indicators involved in the analysis at various time and (or) spatial cycles of the functioning of the modeled system.

4th stage (model specification) includes a direct conclusion (based on the hypotheses and initial assumptions adopted at the 2nd stage) of the general form of model relationships connecting the input and output variables of interest to us. Speaking about the general form of model relationships, we mean the fact that at this stage only the structure of the model will be determined, its symbolic analytical notation, in which, along with the known numerical values ​​(represented mainly by the initial statistical data), there will be quantities, meaningful meaning which are defined, but the numerical values ​​are not (they are usually called model parameters, the unknown values ​​of which are subject to statistical estimation).

5th stage (identifiability study and model identification) consists of conducting a statistical analysis of the model in order to “adjust” the values ​​of its unknown parameters to the initial statistical data that we have. When implementing this stage, the “forecaster” must first answer the question Is it possible in principle to unambiguously restore the values ​​of unknown model parameters? according to the available initial statistical data with the structure (method of specification) of the model adopted at the 4th stage. This constitutes the so-called problem of identifiability models. And then, after a positive answer to this question, it is necessary to decide identification problem models, i.e. propose and implement a mathematically correct procedure for estimating unknown values ​​of model parameters using the available initial statistical data. If the problem of identifiability is solved negatively, then they return to stage 4 and make the necessary adjustments to the solution of the model specification problem.

6th stage (model verification) consists in using various procedures for comparing model conclusions, assessments, consequences and conclusions with reality. This stage is also called the stage of statistical analysis of the accuracy and adequacy of the model. If the results of this stage are pessimistic, it is necessary to return to stage 4, and sometimes to stage 1. If the model verification stage gives positive results, then the model can be directly used to build a forecast in accordance with the general scheme described above (10).

In the description of the content of the 1st stage of the forecasting procedure, we discussed, in particular, the need to determine the final application goals of forecasting. This implies, in particular, the determination of the required forecast type. The type of forecast is determined by two factors:
forecast horizon And
hierarchical level of the predicted indicator.

According to the forecast horizon, forecasts are divided into short-term(1-2 time steps forward), medium term(for 3-5 measures) and long-term(more than 5 time steps ahead).

Based on the level of the predicted indicator, it is advisable to distinguish macro-, meso- And microforecasts. Everything related to forecasting indicators characterizing the activities of firms, companies and enterprises belongs to the micro level. Meso- (regional and sectoral levels) and macro forecasts are used to describe the external environment.

It should be emphasized that in reality, a businessman or the head of an enterprise can, of course, successfully run a business and not master the methods of constructing mathematical forecasting models. However, in an increasingly competitive environment, knowledge of these methods provides a businessman and his business with sometimes no less significant competitive advantages than gaining a certain market share or obtaining a lucrative loan.

The practice of political forecasting varied and varied:

1.For goals and directions.

2. Behind the deadlines.

3.For reasons.

4. For the tools. According to the main goals of political activity, forecasts

may be aimed at:

Identification of the main trends in international relations;

Knowledge of the mechanism of emergence and evolution of possible international conflicts;

Forecast of the result of the election campaign;

Establishing the dynamics of influence of the main political forces in a particular country;

Determining the degree of popularity of political leaders and their influence on changing political situations in a particular country;

Analysis of the possible consequences of one or another political decision.

Basis of political forecasting strong different.

Different types of statistical information;

Sociological research data;

Polling public thought;

Media materials;

Intelligence data;

Historical, psychological, economic, ethnographic research;

Knowledge of factors that influence the course of political processes.

According to the timing of forecasts, there are:

1. Short-term – up to 5 years.

2.Medium term – from 5 to 15 years.

3. Long-term – up to 30 years.

Naturally, as the period increases, the degree of reliability of the occurrence of events or processes that are assumed decreases. Political Forecasting Toolkit includes:

Different types of surveys;

Qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing public thought survey data;

To process large amounts of data the following is used:

Modern computer technology;

A special mathematical apparatus, the effectiveness of which is becoming increasingly obvious.

Making a political forecast

It is a system of step-by-step actions, among which are:

Structural analysis of the relevant political system, identification of its components, determination of the nature of connections, dependencies between them;

Selection of main factors, quantitative expression, comparison of their significance;

Identification of the main trends aimed at the development of processes operating in the system;

Extrapolation (imaginary continuation) of these processes, synthesis of these trajectories of their interaction;

Drawing up a comprehensive forecast for the development of the political system.

Forecasting methods in politics

Traditionally widely used in political forecasting:

1. Extrapolation method(an imaginary continuation into the future of certain existing political processes).

The use of this method is based on the fact that most political phenomena are processes themselves, that is, phenomena that last over time and have their own trajectory of movement, which can be established by knowing the chain of past and present events.

2. Method of analogy. Actively used in political forecasting based on similarity of conditions, which caused this or that event in the past, allows us to draw a conclusion about the possibility of the event occurring in the future.

The analogy method can be used in forecasting just right to predict events or individual phenomena

3.Script method provides a description of possible future events in a region or throughout the world. It is used, first of all, to describe the picture of the development of conflict situations, in the preparation of political decisions designed for a more or less long term.

Drawing up scenarios is always associated with an assessment of events and trends in their development, and the assessment expresses a subjective attitude to the phenomenon on the part of the one who makes it. Therefore, there may be several scenarios that relate to forecasting the same phenomenon. Selecting one or another scenario requires the inclusion of expert assessment in the forecasting activity, which is obtained by interviewing scientists.

4.Simulation method proves extremely useful in policy analysis and forecasting.

Political forecasting– the process of developing a scientifically based judgment about a possible development of political events in the future, alternative ways and timing of its implementation, as well as the identification of specific recommendations for the use of practical measures in real-life conditions.

Areas of use:

1. Economic and political.

2. Socio-political.

3.State-legal.

4. Political and ideological.

5.Military-political.

6. Foreign policy.

7. Domestic political.

Basic principles:

1. Systematicity.

2. Consistency.

3.Continuity.

4. Credibility.

5.Optimality

6.Alternativeness.

7.Profitability.

8. Analogy.

By type, forecasts are divided into:

2. Regulatory.

Beyond the warning period:

Operational - up to 1 month.

Short-term – from 1 month to 1 year.

Medium term – from 1 to 5 years.

Long-term – from 5 to 15 years.

Ultra-long-term – for a period of more than 15 years.

Behind the spheres:

1. Domestic political.

2. Foreign policy.

Main stages of political forecasting:

1. Forecast orientation.

2.Building a basic model.

3.Collection of forecast background data.

5.Assessing the reliability and accuracy of the forecast.

6.Building a search model.

Basic methods of political forecasting:

1. For the sign of information basis:

factual;

expert;

combined.

2. Based on the principle of information processing:

statistical;

analogies;

direct expert assessments;

expert assessments with feedback;

leading

3. Behind the sign of the implementation apparatus:

Extrapolation;

Interpolation;

Factor analysis;

Correlation analysis;

Mathematical analogies;

Historical analogies;

Expert survey;

Expert analysis.

Political situation

The totality and result of factors and conditions that express the relationship and alignment of socio-political forces, as well as the state of political relations, directly related to the achievement of political goals and meeting the needs of political subjects.

Structure:

Subjects of the political situation, their alignment and balance of power;

Real life circumstances, specific political processes, phenomena and development trends;

Political interests and wholes.

Characteristics:

Complexity;

Scale;

Dynamism;

Variety of trends;

A large number of forms of manifestation.

Main types:

Cooperation;

Confrontational;

Cooperative-confrontational (mixed).

Methodology for analyzing the internal political situation:

Determination of subjects of political relations;

analysis of the qualitative and quantitative composition of policy subjects

Analysis of the goals and interests of policy subjects;

Analysis of real processes and phenomena in various spheres of social life, identifying trends in their development;

Analysis of the state of the economy;

Analysis of the state of social-class and national relations;

Analysis of public consciousness, cultural life;

Analysis of the criminal situation in the country;

Analysis of the internal military-political situation;

Analysis of the legitimacy of political power;

Assessment of the political situation in the country;

Forecast for the development of the political situation.

Methodology for analyzing the international (regional) political situation:

Determination of the poles of power in the world (region);

Determination of centers of force at the poles;

Analysis and assessment of the military potential of centers of power;

Analysis and assessment of the internal political situation in centers of power;

Assessment of the international (regional) political situation;

Development of a forecast for the development of the international (regional) political situation.

The basic processes that ensured globalization in the 21st century are:

1. Commercialization – the consistent formation of global markets for goods, services, work, and capital.

2. Bureaucratization - the evolution of bureaucratic apparatuses: from agrarian empires to absolute monarchies, from absolute monarchies to constitutional monarchies; republican structure and forms of democratic control over the bureaucracy.

3. Collectivization – various forms of social mobilization that use mechanisms of social regulation and self-regulation.

Democratization – different forms of social mobilization that use mechanisms of public regulation and self-regulation

5. Rationalization - the emergence of experimental science of the New Age, its paradigmatization (Newtonian mechanics), the emergence of scientific technologies, social engineering and social sciences, applied scientific^-scientific-natural-scientific, technical and social research, social engineering, scientific programming, system management, informatization. Scheme of political globalization:

State sovereignty – the absence of sovereign states; multiple centers of power at the global, local and intermediate

Problem solving – solving local problems in the context of a global community;

International organizations are powerful and dominant in relation to national organizations;

Political culture is a planetary overcoming of the dominance of state-centric values.

Forecasting management decisions is most closely related to planning. The plan and forecast are mutually complementary stages of planning with the determining role of the plan as the leading link of management.

Forecast in the management system is the pre-planned development of multivariate models for the development of the control object. The timing, scope of work, numerical characteristics of the object and other indicators in the forecast are probabilistic in nature and necessarily provide for the possibility of making adjustments.

Unlike the forecast plan contains unambiguously the lifetime of the event and the characteristics of the planned object. For planned developments, the most rational forecast option is used.

Forecast developments are an integral part of complex target programs.

At development of forecasts the following can be distinguished stages:

preparation for forecast development;

analysis of retrospective information (for 2 or more years), internal and external conditions;

determination of the most likely options for the development of internal and external conditions;

conducting an examination;

development of alternative options;

a priori and a posteriori assessment of the quality of the forecast;

monitoring the progress of implementation and adjusting the forecast.

Flowchart of the main stages of forecast development

1. At the stage preparation for forecast development the following tasks must be solved:

– organizational support for the development of the forecast has been prepared;

– a forecast task was formulated;

– a working and analytical support group has been formed;

– an expert commission was formed;

– methodological support for developing the forecast has been prepared;

– an information base for the forecast has been prepared;

– computer support for forecast development has been prepared.

After the decision has been made to develop a forecast, it is necessary to determine the performers who will be entrusted with the development. On the one hand, this is a group of workers who are entrusted with organizational support for the development of the forecast, on the other hand, this is a group of specialists who must provide methodological and information support.

A high-quality expert forecast can be developed only if it is well prepared, if competent specialists are involved in its development, if reliable information is used, if estimates are correctly obtained and processed.

The task for developing a forecast must be clear, clearly understood by both experts and specialists accompanying the development of the forecast.

Forecasting is iterative in nature, which means simultaneous research and forecasting of an object at any stage of preparing a management decision.

Specialists who are professionally familiar with the object of examination are invited to join the expert commission.

If a multidimensional assessment of an object is required, or heterogeneous objects must be assessed and this requires specialists of different professional orientations, then the expert commission should be formed in such a way that it includes specialists who are capable of professionally assessing all the main aspects of the predicted problem.

The development of the forecast must be carried out methodically correctly, the methods used must correspond to the nature of the forecasted situation and the information to be obtained, analyzed and processed.

Methodological preparation of the forecasting process should be carried out by an analytical group, which includes specialists with professional knowledge and experience in carrying out forecast developments.

The development of the forecast must be clearly regulated. The working group must prepare the necessary documentation, which includes an officially formalized decision to conduct the forecast, the composition of the expert commission (commissions), a forecast development schedule, contracts (employment agreements) with specialists involved in its development, etc.

Specialists working on the forecast must be provided with all the necessary information about the forecast object. Naturally, when developing a forecast, it is always insufficient (an ideal, but, unfortunately, unrealistic situation when it is known exactly what will happen in the future), and the more complete the information about the forecast object, the better the prepared forecast can be.

Often, an analytical review on a predicted problem, specially prepared by an analytical group, can be useful.

When working on a forecast, especially if it is a multivariate forecast, you have to deal with large amounts of information, which must also be analyzed and processed in accordance with the forecast development technology used.

Therefore, without the use of modern computer technology and, above all, a PC with specially prepared databases, modules for input, analysis and processing of information, often operating in automated workstation (AWS) mode, automatic printing of reports on the work done, intermediate and final results containing and the forecast itself, effective work on a forecast that meets modern requirements is, as a rule, impossible.

The use of scientific and technical information to solve problems of scientific and technical forecasting significantly reduces the amount of labor costs for collecting and preparing initial data and allows forecasters to concentrate their efforts on the substantive part of this process.

2. When analysis of retrospective information a clear separation of quantitative and qualitative information is assumed about the forecasting object.

Quantitative information, if it is sufficient and reliable, is used for calculations to extrapolate the dynamics of changes in the predicted parameters, to determine the most likely trends in their change.

Qualitative information is classified, systematized and serves as the basis for expert assessments and, along with quantitative information, is used to develop expert forecasts.

To successfully develop a forecast, an analysis of the internal conditions of the forecast object, a meaningful analysis of their features and development dynamics are necessary.

If there is quantitative information characterizing the internal conditions of the forecast object, then it is also analyzed.

The task of analyzing the internal and external conditions of the forecast object is to identify the main operating forces and mechanisms that determine the development of the forecast object in the period corresponding to the forecast period.

If mathematical, simulation, analog and other models of the functioning of the forecast object and changes in internal conditions have been developed, then the necessary data is entered into them and, on their basis, calculations are made that allow one to assess the most likely changes in the internal conditions of the forecast object.

In particular, if the object of forecasting is an organization, then the internal conditions of the object of forecasting may include its internal environment, including a combination of such components as structure, intra-organizational processes, technology, personnel, organizational culture, management of functional processes.

When developing a forecast of external conditions, the external environment of the functioning of the forecast object should be given no less attention than the internal one.

At the same time, information should also be divided into quantitative and qualitative, i.e. information containing precise numerical estimates and descriptive information. Depending on the type of information, appropriate methods of obtaining, analyzing and processing it are used.

If the object of forecasting is an organization, then external conditions can be divided into the general external environment and the immediate business environment of the organization.

The general external environment is not directly related to the organization and reflects the state of society, the economy, and the natural environment.

The organization's immediate business environment is created by consumers, suppliers, business partners, competitors, administrative bodies, business associations, etc.

3. Determination of the most likely options for the development of internal and external conditions of the forecast object is one of the central tasks of forecast development. The accuracy of the developed forecast and the effectiveness of decisions made on its basis depend on how correctly they are determined.

At this stage of forecast development, based on all available information about the forecast object, preliminary a list of possible alternatives is determined changes in internal and external conditions.

After their preliminary assessment from the list those alternative options are excluded whose feasibility in the forecast period is doubtful or the probability of their implementation is lower than a predetermined threshold value.

The remaining alternatives are being assessed in more depth to identifying alternative options for changing internal and external conditions, the implementation of which is most likely.

Each of the selected most probable alternative options for changing the internal and external conditions of the functioning of the forecast object is studied in detail and presented for the development of alternative forecast options for each of the selected alternative options for changing the operating conditions of the forecast object.

4. Conducting an examination.

Expertise is a study of any object, situation, issue that requires special knowledge, with the presentation of a reasoned conclusion.

At this stage of forecast development, the most active work of experts is expected to identify and assess key events that are expected to occur in the forecasted period of time.

The previous stage of forecast development provides the information necessary for the analytical group to conduct an examination.

Experts are provided with information about the most likely changes in internal and external conditions, based on the previously conducted analysis, questions are formulated that should be answered as a result of the examination, and the most likely scenarios for the development of events are outlined.

The procedures for organizing and conducting examinations have now been developed in sufficient detail.

Depending on the nature of the forecast object, on the nature of the assessments and judgments that must be obtained in the process of conducting the examination, more specific methods of organizing and conducting the examination are determined.

Examinations can be single-round or multi-round, anonymous and providing for an open exchange of opinions, with and without the exchange of information during the examination process, etc.

The nature of the specific information that is supposed to be used in developing the forecast imposes certain requirements on the choice of a specific method for organizing and conducting the examination.

If the projected object is quite complex, complex, and multifaceted, then it is advisable to use complex methods of organizing and conducting an examination.

When conducting an examination to develop a forecast, the analytical team must prepare questionnaires containing questions that must be answered when developing the forecast.

Depending on the technological level of the organization and the examination, questionnaires can be prepared both on paper and on computer media.

To obtain expert information, a method such as interviewing can be used, when in a free form, but according to a predetermined plan, the expert gives assessments and judgments necessary in developing a forecast.

Moreover, during interviewing, it is possible to depart from the pre-planned plan. The interviewer should ensure that assessments are as valid as possible.

To obtain expert information when developing a forecast, it is possible to use a mixed questionnaire method, when when working with an expert, elements of both questioning and interviewing are used.

5. Development of alternative options.

The information prepared at the previous stages, including that received from experts, is used in the immediate development of the forecast. As a rule, cases are unlikely when it is known in advance in what direction changes in internal and external conditions will occur, what strategy will be chosen by the organization in a particular development of events. After all, the development of an organization in the projected future depends on various factors, as well as their combination and interaction.

It follows from the above that when strategic planning and in other cases of using forecasts, it is necessary to consider various alternative options for the development of events, both favorable and unfavorable.

At the previous stages, the most likely changes in the main internal and external conditions that determine the course of the predicted events were determined.

For the most likely alternative options for their changes, the most likely alternative options for the development of predicted events must be developed.

If one of the goals of developing the forecast was to determine the dynamics of development of quantitative indicators and parameters, then, using the amount of information (quantitative and qualitative) obtained at the previous stages of developing the forecast and the corresponding extrapolation methods (determining changes in the predicted indicators and parameters in the future), their change curves are calculated in the forecast period of time.

However, we do not always have the necessary information to use quantitative extrapolation methods. This may be the lack (in particular, characteristic of the current stage of economic life in Russia) of statistical data necessary for calculations, since previous economic dependencies and patterns have changed. Therefore, often the only way to extrapolate indicators and parameters to a forecasted period of time is to construct expert curves. Expert curves reflect the assessment of the dynamics of the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters by experts.

When developing a variant forecast, extrapolation of the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters should be carried out for various variants of initial conditions and for various possible alternative variants of the dynamics of their change.

Along with extrapolation of the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters, especially in the case of involving experts to develop a forecast, each alternative version of the forecast being developed can be accompanied by a meaningful description of the predicted development of events.

6. A priori and a posteriori assessment of forecast quality.

A posteriori - based on experience.

A priori – regardless of previous experience.

Assessing the quality of the forecast– one of the central problems in the process of developing management decisions. The degree of confidence in the developed forecast largely influences the decision made and affects the effectiveness of management decisions made using the developed forecast.

However, as unexpected as it may seem, assessing the quality of a forecast is a rather difficult task not only at the moment when the forecast has just been developed (a priori assessment), but also at the moment when the predicted event has already occurred (a posteriori assessment). Before we begin discussing the assessment of the quality of the forecast, we note that it is important for a clearer understanding of the decision-making process that a qualitative forecast can be used in different ways when making a decision. If the management of the organization does not have a significant impact on the course of events, but only monitors it, then after the end of the forecast period it is only necessary to compare the values ​​of the predicted indicators and parameters with those obtained in reality. This allows us to evaluate the quality of the developed forecast a posteriori.

At the same time, perhaps, it may be more effective to use the results of the developed forecast in the case where the decision maker can influence the course of events. An example of such influence can be, in particular, the adjustment of control actions based on the expected predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters. This is the so-called active forecast. However, if, as a result of the analysis of the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters, the decision maker changed the control actions, which, in turn, changed the development of the predicted events, often in a direction more favorable for the decision maker, then it is unlikely that the initially developed forecast would be correctly considered inaccurate.

If the forecast had not been developed, then the effective management decision that followed its development would not have been made. Once a forecast has been developed, criteria must be defined by which the accuracy of the forecast can be assessed.

As a rule, two methods are used to evaluate the forecast: differential or integral.

With the differential method, sets of estimates of individual components of the forecast quality are evaluated, which have a fairly clear objective meaning.

In particular, criteria such as clarity and clarity of the forecast task, compliance of the forecast with the task, timeliness of forecast development, professional level of forecast development, reliability of the information used, etc. can be used.

The integral method involves a generalized assessment of the quality of the forecast based on an assessment of the quality of the forecast using specific criteria. However, in a number of cases, this method turns out to be not convincing enough, since the need to assess the comparative importance of the criteria and their impact on the integral assessment is added, wittingly or unwittingly, to assessing the quality of the forecast using particular criteria.

An example of the use of the integral method is the criterion of “integral quality of an expert forecast” - an assessment of the forecast, which involves, in particular, an assessment according to the private criteria listed above.

If we talk about an expert forecast, then its quality is determined, first of all, by such particular criteria as:

– competence (or more generally – quality) of the expert;

– quality of information provided to experts;

– quality of expert information coming from experts;

– the level of forecast development technology or, in other words, the quality of the methods and procedures used in developing the forecast.

If the forecasting period has already ended, then it is necessary to compare the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters with those obtained as a result of the actual course of the predicted events.

To carry out such an assessment, it is necessary to take into account all the main factors that determine the quality of the developed forecast.

7. Monitoring the progress of implementation and adjusting the forecast.

After the forecast has been prepared and presented to the management of the organization, the customer, etc., a new stage of work with the prepared material begins.

An integral part of modern forecasting technology is periodic monitoring (depending on ongoing changes) of the progress of the predicted development of events.

Monitoring allows timely detection of significant deviations in the course of events. If they can have a fundamental impact on the further course of events in terms of making important strategic decisions, then the forecast should be adjusted.

It is necessary to clearly understand that forecasts are valuable not in themselves, as an opportunity to professionally predict the expected course of events in a particular area of ​​human activity, but to a greater extent as a necessary and very essential element in the development of important management decisions.

Therefore, if significant deviations are identified in the course of events in the forecasted area of ​​activity, especially in the case of an active forecast, appropriate adjustments must be made to the already developed forecast.

Adjustments can be of varying levels of significance, complexity, labor intensity, etc. If they are not very significant, then this problem can be solved at the level of the analytical group accompanying the development of the forecast.

If the adjustments are more significant, then additional involvement of individual experts may be required, and in particularly important cases, if there are significant changes, additional work of the expert commission with a possible change in composition.

The structure of the forecast is determined by the time frame for which it is designed, as well as the main directions of scientific and technological development, which primarily depend on the “lifespan” of trends that developed in the period preceding their development. The more stable these trends are, the wider the forecast horizon can be. Different reproductive processes have different speeds and different time cycles. The reproduction cycle of instruments is much shorter than the production cycle of machine tools and other equipment; the timing of renewal of mechanical engineering products is largely determined by the dynamics of the technical level of tools.

The forecast is a pre-planning document and therefore its implementation in practice means the development of a scientifically based company strategy, a business plan based on the use of options for forecasting quality indicators, the costs of achieving it and other information.

Forecasting management decisions has the goal of obtaining scientifically based development alternatives for various indicators that are used in R&D, as well as for the development of the entire management system. It turns out that forecasting management decisions is part of the management system and contributes to the development of the entire system as a whole.

But the decision-maker must remember that only decisions and plans are ideal, and people and circumstances are always real, and therefore every management decision, every plan carries with it the possibility of not only success, but also failure.

Scientifically based forecasting is an important tool of modern management. It is used both for strategic planning of the development of individual enterprises and for the development of long-term socio-economic programs at the state level. The structure and stages of this process are closely related to the methodology and the adopted model.

Definition

Forecasting is a system of theoretically based ideas about the possible future states of an object and the directions of its development. This concept is similar to the term hypothesis, but, unlike the latter, it is based on quantitative indicators and has greater reliability. The common feature of these two concepts is that they explore an object or process that does not yet exist.

Applied forecasting techniques received active development in the 70s. XX century, and the boom in their use abroad continues to this day. This is mainly due to a new direction in research - global issues, the main task of which is to solve the world's resource, demographic and environmental problems.

Forecasting is a science that has a close relationship with statistics and its analytical methods. When carrying out the analysis, the achievements of mathematics, natural and other sciences are widely used.

Forecasting and planning complement each other in various variations. In most cases, the forecast is developed before the plan is created. He can also follow the plan to determine possible consequences. In large-scale studies (at the state or regional level), the forecast can act as the plan itself.

Goals

The main task of forecasting is to identify effective ways to manage socio-economic processes in society or the economic and technical development of an enterprise.

The methodological basis for achieving such goals are the following:

• analysis of economic and technological development trends;
• anticipating different options;
• comparison of existing trends and set goals;
• assessment of the possible consequences of economic decisions made.

Forecast methods

Forecasting is carried out according to a certain methodology, which is understood as a system of indicators and approaches to the object under study, the logic of research. Other parameters also depend on which methodology is chosen - how many stages of forecasting will be carried out and what their content will be.

Among the huge number of forecasting methods, the following main groups can be distinguished:

1. Individual expert assessments:

• Interview - information is obtained during a conversation (formalized and informal, preparatory and independent, directed and undirected).
• Questionnaire survey (individual, group, mass, full-time and correspondence survey).
• Development of a forecast scenario (used in areas of management activities).
• Analytical method - building a tree of goals (for assessing hierarchical or structural processes).

2. Collective based on obtaining a consensus opinion in a group of experts:

• meetings;
• "round tables";
• "Delphi";
• "brainstorm";
• "court" method.

3. Formalized methods based on the use of mathematical methods of assessment:

• extrapolation;
• math modeling;
• morphological method and others.

4. Complex techniques that combine several of the above:

• “double tree” (used for basic research and R&D);
• forecast graph;
• "Pattern" and others.

The correctly chosen forecast method significantly affects its errors. For example, strategic planning does not use extrapolation (foreseeing beyond experimental data or extending properties from one subject area to another).

Stages

The sequence of forecasting stages in the general case represents work according to the following scheme:

1. Preparation.
2. Analysis of internal and external conditions in retrospect.
3. Development of options for the development of events along an alternative path.
4. Expertise.
5. Selection of a suitable model.
6. Her assessment.
7. Analysis of the quality of the examination (a priori and a posteriori).
8. Implementation of forecast developments, their control and adjustment (if necessary).

Below is a description of the main stages of forecasting and their characteristics.

Preparatory stage

At the first stage, the following questions are resolved:

1. Pre-forecast orientation (formulation of the object of study, formulation of the problem, determination of goals and objectives, primary modeling, formulation of working hypotheses).
2. Information and organizational preparation.
3. Formulation of the forecast task.
4. Preparation of computer support.

At the stage of forecasting, the performers who must carry out the forecast are also determined. This group may consist of competent employees responsible for organizational work and information support, and also includes an expert commission.

The following points are documented:

• forecasting decision;
• composition of working commissions;
• work schedule;
• analytical review on the problem being studied;
• contracts or other agreements with specialists involved in forecasting.

Analysis

At the second, analytical stage of forecasting, the following types of work are carried out:

• research of information about an object in retrospect;
• separation of qualitative and quantitative indicators;
• analysis of internal conditions (in relation to an enterprise this can be: its organizational structure, technology, personnel, production culture and other qualitative parameters);
• study and assessment of external conditions (interaction with business partners, suppliers, competitors and consumers, the general state of the economy and society).

In the process of analysis, the current state of the object is diagnosed and trends in its further development are determined, and the main problems and contradictions are identified.

Alternative options

The stage of identifying other, most likely options for the development of an object is one of the key stages of forecasting. The accuracy of the forecast and, accordingly, the effectiveness of decisions made on its basis depend on the correctness of their determination.

At this stage the following work is performed:

• development of a list of alternative development options;
• exclusion of those processes that in a given period have a probability of implementation below the threshold value;
• detailed study of each additional option.

Expertise

Based on available information and previously conducted analysis, an expert study of an object, process or situation is carried out. The result of this forecasting stage is a reasonable conclusion and identification of scenarios under which development will be most likely.

The examination can be carried out using various methods:

• interviewing;
• survey;
• one-time or multi-round survey of experts;
• anonymous or open exchange of information and other methods.

Model selection

A forecasting model is a simplified description of the object or process under study, which allows one to obtain the necessary information about its future state, directions for achieving such a state, and the interrelations of individual elements of the system. It is selected based on the research method.

In economics, there are several types of such models:

• functional, describing the operation of the main components;
• models characterized by methods of economic physics (determination of mathematical dependencies between various variables of the production process);
• expert (special formulas for processing expert assessments);
• economic, based on determining the dependencies between the economic indicators of the predicted system;
• procedural (describing management interactions and their order).

There are also other classifications of models:

1. According to the aspects reflected in them - production and social.
2. Models designed to describe income, consumption, and demographic processes.
3. Economic models of various levels (long-term for forecasting economic development, intersectoral, sectoral, production).

In forecast models, the following forms of description of phenomena are distinguished:

• text;
• graphical (extrapolation methods);
• network (graphs);
• building block diagrams;
• matrix (tables);
• analytical (formulas).

The model is formed using the following methods:

• phenomenological (direct study and observation of ongoing phenomena);
• deductive (selecting details from the general model);
• inductive (generalization from particular phenomena).

After selecting the model, a forecast is made for certain periods. The results obtained are compared with currently known information.

Quality control

The forecast verification stage, or checking its reliability, is carried out on the basis of previous experience (a posteriori) or independently of it (a priori). Quality assessment is done using the following criteria: accuracy (dispersion of forecast trajectories), reliability (probability of the chosen option being implemented), reliability (measure of process uncertainty). To assess the deviation of forecast criteria from their actual values, a concept called forecast errors is used.

The controlling process also involves comparing results with other models and developing recommendations for managing an object or process, if such an impact may have an impact on the development of events.

There are 2 methods for quality assessment:

1. Differential, in which clear criteria are used (determining the clarity of setting the forecast task, the timeliness of stage-by-stage work, the professional level of performers, the reliability of information sources).
2. Integral (generalized assessment).

Main Factors

The accuracy of the forecast is influenced by the following main factors:

• competence of the expert group;
• quality of prepared information;
• accuracy of economic data measurement;
• the level of methods and procedures used in forecasting;
• correct choice of model;
• consistency of methodological approaches between different specialists.

Often large errors also arise due to the fact that the specific conditions in which the model is applied are not taken into account.

Implementation

The last stage of forecasting is the implementation of the forecast and monitoring the progress of its implementation. If critical deviations are identified that can significantly affect the further development of events, the forecast is adjusted.

The level of adoption of amendment decisions may vary. If they are insignificant, then the adjustment is carried out by the analytical group, which is responsible for developing the forecast. In some cases, experts are involved in this work.

Forecasting, like any economic activity, is carried out on the basis of ordered rules and concentrates on solving target problems arising from the purpose of entrepreneurship. Forecasting studies are necessary to make sure how realistic and favorable the goals set for the enterprise are.

Forecasting - This is a system of quantitative and qualitative pre-plan research aimed at clarifying the possible state and results of the enterprise in the future, on the basis of which the possibility (probability) of achieving its goals is determined. Typically, forecasts indicate the likely degree of possible deviation from certain goals, depending on the method of future actions and the influence of various external scientific, technical, climatic, socio-economic and political factors. Forecasts take into account the requirements of the plan, but are an independent form of foreseeing the objective process and the possible final result of achieving the set goal in terms of time (years, months) and resources expressed in money.

The forecasting process has a number of stages:

First stage- determining the socio-economic order from society for manufactured products and identifying market demand for these products;

scientific and technical forecasting, which determines the probable natural-material state of the predicted object;

economic forecasting, the tasks are:

foreseeing the possible availability and distribution of resources across various sectors of the economy and areas in which the enterprise may operate;

determination of the lower and upper limits of the results obtained for invested labor and capital for selected forecast objects;

assessment of the maximum possible amount of resources, the allocation of which for the development of the enterprise in the chosen target direction is justified for solving the corresponding economic, scientific and technical problem, etc.

Most general indicators which the forecast should give are:

the likelihood of achieving the goal within the direction considered in the forecast;

capital investments required for the program as a whole and at each stage of the forecast period;

labor costs (in man-hours) in each individual segment of the forecast period, highlighting costs by occupational category;

current production costs at each stage of the forecast period, highlighting costs at various stages of the product life cycle;

profit of the enterprise obtained as a result of achieving the set goal.

Practical forecasting problem, as one of the elements of economic management, is to determine the reality and feasibility of the intended strategy. Therefore, forecasting has significant similarities with planning. However planning is the process of making and practical implementation of management decisions, and forecasting– formation of possible prerequisites for making such decisions. Plan and forecast- these are not two alternative approaches to establishing the prospects for economic and technical development, but mutually complementary stages in the development of economic plans with the determining role of the plan as the main tool for managing the organization. Therefore, in all cases, a transition from predicted to planned indicators must be ensured, taking into account their differences.

The directive nature of planning presupposes its targeting, and forecasting may not correspond to the existing organizational and economic structure of the enterprise and may not have a specific administrative address. The nature of planning is aimed at overcoming the probabilistic nature of economic development. The process of developing a plan is of an option nature, but the approved plan is a developed directive development option that is subject to practical implementation. The forecast is based on foresight and is alternative (variant), not only as a development method, but also as the final result.

The main function of the forecast is to justify the possible state of the object in the future and determine alternative ways and deadlines for achieving the goal. The forecast is probabilistic in nature, but has a certain degree of reliability. In practice, a forecast is a pre-planning document that records the likely degree of achievement of a set goal depending on the scale and method of future actions.

TO forecasting functions also include:

quantitative and qualitative trend analysis;

probable alternative change in the future development of the enterprise, taking into account current trends and goals;

assessment of the possibilities and consequences of active influence on foreseeable processes and trends.

The forecast is the basis for developing a strategic plan and organizing enterprise management. Therefore it covers:

analysis of the development of the industry, the predicted direction of production, its characteristics and the current state of supply and demand;

the main macro-technical and organizational-economic problems and the time frame for their solution in the industry, the country and beyond;

availability of materials, technology and equipment suitable for the manufacture of predicted products;

the expected volume of production of competitors' target products for the enterprise and the future demand for it in the markets;

the expected cost of developing and manufacturing these products and their market price;

the power required for the efficient manufacture of new target products;

the need for labor resources and their availability, taking into account changes in the structure of personnel, their qualifications and the expected increase in labor productivity;

identification of technical and economic solutions that are promising for the enterprise, have already been prepared, but have not received widespread practical application;

assessment of the importance of ongoing research that requires costs to solve future technical and economic problems.

Depending on the internal and external situation, as well as the goals determined by the management of the enterprise, two approaches to developing forecasts: genetic (research) and target (normative).

Genetic prediction consists in identifying economic, production and technical patterns and capabilities of a given direction of production based on the natural logic of development inherent in this direction; assessment of possible changes in the range, characteristics and volume of products; determination of achievable values ​​of economic and technical parameters and indicators of new products and timing of their release.

Target Forecasting is aimed at formulating and concretizing the long-term development goals of a given enterprise and determining the necessary means and time frames for solving a separate complex and all the combined tasks of restructuring production, creating and mastering the production of new products with the necessary technical and economic indicators in the required volumes. The basis of this forecast is the target goal and its required future parameters, on the basis of which the goal is achieved and possible paths of movement from the present to the future are determined.

Drawing up and coordinating forecasts based on these two approaches helps to obtain the most complete material for determining enterprise policy.

By timing forecasts are distinguished:

operational- with a period of up to 3 - 6 months from the start of the forecast;

short-term- up to one year;

medium term- up to 2 - 3 years;

long-term- for a period of up to 10 - 20 years or more.

As a rule, the longer the period for which the forecast is prepared, the more significant the deviation of actual data from the forecast may be in the future.

All forecasting methods can be divided into passive and active. Passive forecast is based on the study of economic processes that have quite pronounced inertia. Active(or target) is based on a system of models and techniques that take into account the possibility of influencing the general course of economic processes.

The most well-known and widespread forecasting methods are:

expert assessments, which are based on the ordered opinions of highly qualified expert specialists;

extrapolation or statistical methods, based on the processing of retrospective data about the object of forecasting and the propagation of past trends into the future;

modeling methods, i.e., constructing a structural, physical or mathematical model that adequately reflects the most significant patterns of behavior of the forecast object and their relationship with external factors.

Expert methods forecasting are divided into:

methods of individual expert assessment and interview-type assessment;

commission (collective discussion) methods, including brainstorming;

methods of collective expert assessment - examination.

Expert methods are currently the most common due to their relative simplicity and portability. The vast majority of forecasts are based on them.

Extrapolation methods boil down to processing available data about the forecast object over the past and disseminating the trend discovered in the past into the future.

Modeling methods are the most complex method of forecasting, and consist of a variety of approaches to forecasting complex processes and phenomena. These methods may overlap with extrapolation and expert methods.

Forecasts are developed not only for the enterprise as a whole, but also for individual objects: workshops, branches, individual products and technologies. However, the methods may be different. Often used script methods- a business game, when, with the help of simulation models, possible prospects for the development of complex phenomena with numerous interrelations are considered in order to form a general view of the set of problems and processes related to the object under consideration.

The reliability of forecasting is largely determined by the completeness and reliability of the information used, which the enterprise must accumulate and systematize in a data bank.

Forecasting, especially long-term, is a mandatory component of determining the goals of an enterprise, developing strategies and tactics for its activities, planning, especially long-term, preparing targeted functional programs for market development, investments, and innovations.

5. Planning is a means of strategic management

The essence of strategic management consists in choosing the strategic goal of the enterprise and the formation and distribution within the enterprise of material, labor and financial resources focused on achieving the strategic goal and effectively responding to current changes and new external trends.

An enterprise may have more than one strategic goals. For example:

mastering the production of fundamentally new products that have no direct analogues;

establishing a monopoly on the sale of its products in certain markets;

expanding the specialization of the enterprise and sales markets to a safe level so that it is not threatened by a sales crisis in any one area of ​​production.

The main guideline for all components of strategic management is the “enterprise – environment – ​​situation” relationship.

Strategic management includes two distinct but mutually complementary processes - strategy formulation and strategy implementation.

Strategy Formulation– is a direct process of strategic regulation, which includes:

assessing the potential chances of achieving the goal;

possible alternative goals;

assessment of the effect of internal and external factors associated with achieving the goal;

selection and final formulation of the goal, i.e. adoption of the strategy.

Strategy implementation, in contrast to its formulation, it includes a series of organizational, administrative, integrating, coordinating and control actions, as a result of which the enterprise gradually modifies its structure, resources and ultimate goal, focusing on the patterns of future behavior outlined by the strategy.

Thus, strategic management includes: strategic planning, current tasks that are directly related to the implementation of the strategy and act as a controlling and corrective element between strategic planning and control of plan execution, and strategic control.

6. Business plan: principles and techniques of preparation, structure

The concept of a “business plan” was introduced into the economic life of Russian enterprises very quickly. Entrepreneurship schematically represents a constant process of decision making, their implementation and analysis of results. The basis for making effective, rational and optimal decisions is the planning of the company's actions.

Business plan is a progressive form of planning that allows you to see the tasks assigned to the company in a comprehensive manner, in the interconnection and interconnection of all sections and aspects of the plan. This first function business plan. Second most important function business plan - attracting investments for the implementation of investment and innovation projects.

Thus, a business plan is necessary:

to plan the socio-economic activities of the organization for the future;

to attract external investments - loans, credits, shareholders, shareholders.

Business plan- this is a document on the basis of which an investor or lender forms his opinion about the company and makes a decision on providing financial resources to the borrower.

The business plan must convince the lender of the reliability of the company and the guarantee of repayment of the loan and interest on it within the terms established in the agreement, because In the process of analyzing a business plan, the lender considers the company’s activities from the point of view of reliability and sustainability, and the investor - from the point of view of return on investment.

The business plan should be well designed, understandable, easy to read and understand. Many companies are vying for financial resources, so the competition between them for receiving investments begins with the presentability of the business plan, with its design, appearance, cover, drawings, etc.

The most important principle of modern marketing is the company’s focus not on the product, but on the market and meeting the needs of the consumer. Therefore, the business plan must reflect the advantages that the consumer will receive in comparison with competitors’ products, and which will create a competitive advantage for the company in the market: quality, time savings, money savings, convenience, complexity, guarantees, after-sales support, etc.

The business plan must emphasize versatility, uniqueness, and market advantages (the latest equipment, technology, favorable geographical location, highly qualified personnel, etc.). It is especially necessary to reflect favorably the human factor: who the owner is, the composition of managers, their professionalism, the high efficiency of their work.

The success of a business plan largely depends on the ability to show positive results of the future development of the company in the event of receiving investments, supported by economic calculations, greater reliability of the company and its personnel, high profits and profitability of the project.

Business plan must have:

title page, which must contain:

name of the project and its cost;

the full official name of the company, under which it is listed in registration documents, the company's trademark;

organizational and legal form;

legal address of the company indicated in the registration documents;

postal address of the company;

last name, first name, patronymic and position of the company management, contact numbers;

serial number of the copy of the business plan;

business plan confidentiality stamp.

summary- a summary of the business plan on several pages (the company, its products, place in the market, resources, suppliers, customers, market opportunities, financial picture with calculation of the necessary financial resources, directions for using them and expected profits, alternative options in case of success and failure ), the main goal of which is to intrigue, arouse interest and attract the attention of the investor. The quality of the resume determines whether an investor will read the business plan or not; the resume should “smell of money”;

the main part of the business plan;

glossary - dictionary of special terms (technical, economic, etc.);

accompanying documents(attachment: registration document, charter, patents, licenses, financial documents and analysis of business activities for the previous five years and the reporting year, reports, balance sheets, calculations of break-even points, booklets, drawings, samples, copies of agreements and contracts, opinions of independent auditors, insurance contracts, recommendations, conclusions, etc.).

Approximate structure of the main part of a business plan

1. Analysis of the industry, market, enterprise, its products:

analysis and review of the industry, sales markets, results of its testing;

description of the enterprise, its place in the industry, competitiveness, personnel;

description of the product, the need for it and the demand for it, importance and special consumer properties, uniqueness, life cycle.

2. Management and ownership:

structure of governing bodies;

board of directors, key managers, their brief characteristics;

owners, their share in capital.

3. Production plan:

calculation of production capacity;

description of production technology;

description of production organization, resources, personnel policy;

calculation of possible risks and ways out of them.

4. Marketing plan:

marketing strategy - goals and plan for conquering the market;

description of the main competitors, calculation of their strengths and weaknesses;

pricing strategy and pricing policy;

system for promoting products on the market;

5. Financial plan:

analysis of the actual financial position of the company;

plan and forecast of financial revenues broken down by time intervals;

plan and forecast of future expenses;

analysis of income and expenses, profits and losses;

calculation of own sources and necessary borrowed and attracted investments.

The planning and reporting forms (according to international requirements for drawing up a business plan) include:

operational plans and reports for each period and for each group of goods;

plans and reports on income and expenses for the production of goods (services), profits and losses for each type of product;

cash flow plan and report, which shows the receipt and expenditure of money in the process of the company’s production activities;

balance sheet of the enterprise, summing up the results of activities;

break-even analysis of commercial activities using formulas and graphs.

Chapter 8. PRODUCTION PROGRAM OF THE ENTERPRISE