Main stages of forecasting

The forecasting stage is a part of the forecast development process, characterized by its tasks, methods and results.

The process of developing forecasts (regardless of the object of forecasting) includes the following main stages:

1) Pre-forecast orientation (research program) is the stage preceding forecasting. It involves the refinement of the task for the forecast, the formulation of the goal and objectives, the subject, problems and working hypotheses, methods, structure and organization of the study.

2) Construction of the initial (basic) model of the predicted object by the methods of system analysis, for the refinement of which it is possible to conduct a survey of the population and experts.

3) Collection of forecast background data.

The forecast background is a set of conditions external to the forecasting object that are essential for solving the forecast problem.

4) Construction of series of dynamics of indicators of the basis of future predictive models by extrapolation methods;

5) Construction of a series of hypothetical (preliminary) search models of the predicted object using the methods of search analysis of profile and background indicators.

6) Construction of a series of hypothetical normative models of the predicted object by the methods of normative analysis with specification of the values ​​of the absolute (i.e., not limited by the forecast background) and relative (i.e., tied to these frameworks) optimum.

7) Evaluation of the reliability and accuracy, as well as the validity (verification) of the forecast.

9) Expert discussion (examination) of the forecast and recommendations, their revision taking into account the discussion and delivery to the customer.

10) Again, a pre-forecast orientation based on a comparison of the already developed forecast materials with new forecast background data and a new research cycle in order to comply with the continuity principle.

Verification of forecast results:

The value of forecasting is determined by how plausibly the future is reflected in it. A scientific forecast must be verifiable, i.e. there must be a real opportunity to check whether the forecast turned out to be correct or not, and there must be a probability for both outcomes.

Verification of forecasting results is understood as checking the accuracy and reliability of the forecast, it can be absolute and relative.

Relative Verification is a different way of assessing the quality of forecasts before the predicted event occurs. The results of relative verification will be less accurate than the results of absolute verification, but more efficient and therefore more valuable for making managerial decisions.

Absolute verification of the forecast, i.e. establishing the degree of its compliance with the actual state of the object in the predicted future is practically possible only by the end of the lead period. This is a special task that goes beyond the scope of forecasting itself.

The verification procedure is desirable and obligatory. In relatively simple cases, the role of this procedure is actually played by expert surveys. In more complex cases, a special procedure is required for one of the eight types of verification: (TYPES ARE NOT REQUIRED)

1) Direct verification - verification of the forecast by developing it by a method different from that originally used.

2) Indirect verification - checking the forecast by comparing it with forecasts obtained from other sources of information.

3) Inverse verification - verification of the forecast by checking the adequacy of the forecasting model in the retrospective period.

4) Consequential (duplicate) verification - verification of the forecast by analytical or logical derivation of the forecast from previously received forecasts.

5) Verification by re-survey - verification of the forecast by using an additional opinion that differs from the opinion of the majority.

6) Verification by the opponent - verification of the forecast by refuting the critical remarks of the opponent on the forecast.

7) Verification with errors - verification of the forecast by identifying and taking into account the sources of regular forecast errors.

8) Verification by a competent expert - verification of the forecast by comparison with the opinion of the most competent expert.

Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. Main tasks and functions in the system of macroeconomic forecasting and planning

The Ministry of Economic Development is a federal executive body that implements a unified state socio-economic policy. The main task is to determine the ways and develop methods for the effective development of the economy.

Functions: (examples in brackets)

1. analytical (analysis of the economic situation in the Russian Federation, trends in socio-economic development, the economic situation in the regions, the progress of reforms carried out in the country)

2. informational (preparation of annual and quarterly reports on the state of the Russian economy)

3. expert (conclusions on the development of certain sectors of the economy and regions of the country, the development of market infrastructure, improvement of the legislative framework)

4. consulting (proposals on pricing policy in the Russian Federation; development of market infrastructure)

5. development and justification of various aspects of the internal policy of the state (formation and justification of regional economic policy; socio-economic policy of the state)

6. development of methods for implementing the internal policy of the state (solving problems of economic, social, structural policy)

7. development of forecasts, projects of strategic federal programs and plans (develops a comprehensive forecast of the social-economy of the development of the Russian Federation, its regions, industries and sectors of the economy)

8. organizational and methodological guidance for planned work in the Russian Federation (coordination of work on the preparation and implementation of federal and interstate target programs; formation of a list of target programs)

Strategic planning as an instrument of state regulation of the modern market economy.

The importance of public planning is to remeasure the system

economic relations.

Conceptual model of strategic planning

Any organization is created for a specific purpose, and by their nature they

divided into market And not market.

In turn, market organizations are divided into commercial and non-profit organizations.

commercial organizations (state enterprises and facilities

infrastructure).

The purpose of commercial organizations is profit. The purpose is not commercial

organizations, this is to ensure the operation of the market mechanism.

The overall goal of strategic planning is to concretize the status of the firm and

provide direction and guidance for developing more specific goals and

strategies at various levels. These goals must be specific and

measurable to provide a basis for subsequent decisions and evaluation

work for their implementation. If the goals exceed the actual capabilities of the organization,

then the company's activities may come to a standstill.

Developing a strategy and implementing strategic planning leadership

firms must take into account the multiplicity and hierarchy of goals objectively

existing within the firm in order to avoid discord in strategies and

programs.

The general concept of ways to achieve the goals is called a strategy.

The strategy reflects the general movement towards the goal, the direction of movement, ways

achievements and resources that should be used for this. Strategy

must be formally documented and its implementation subject to strict

control. In accordance with the developed strategy, restructuring is being carried out

organizational system, its management, the formation of plans, the tradition of a common

direction for operational decisions. The strategy developed by the company

is the only one, there may be other alternative strategies,

which may determine other activities. In case of occurrence

contingency plans are developed on the basis of which

then a strategic action plan is drawn up.

There is no single strategy that is ready for all occasions.

The main goals, principles and functions of the state strategic planning system (FZ on strategic planning of the Russian Federation, 2014)

Basic principles of state strategic planning

The principle of unity and integrity

· The principle of unity and integrity of the state strategic planning system means the unity of approaches to the organization and functioning of the state strategic planning system, the unity of the procedure for implementing the state strategic planning process, improving monitoring and reporting on the implementation of state strategic planning documents.

The principle of internal balance

· The principle of internal balance of the state strategic planning system means the consistency of the main elements of the state strategic planning system with each other in terms of goals, objectives and measures of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and ensuring national security.

The principle of effectiveness and efficiency of the system

· The principle of effectiveness and efficiency of the functioning of the state strategic planning system means that the choice of methods and methods for achieving the goals of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and strengthening national security should be based on the need to achieve the desired results with rational expenditure of resources.

The principle of independence in choosing ways to solve problems

· The principle of independence in choosing ways to solve problems means that the participants in the process of state strategic planning, within their competence, are independent in choosing ways and methods to achieve goals and solve problems of socio-economic development.

The principle of responsibility of participants in the process of state strategic planning

· The principle of responsibility of participants in the process of state strategic planning means that the participants in the process are responsible for the effectiveness of solving problems and implementing measures to achieve the goals of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and ensure national security within their competence and in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation.

The principle of delimitation of subjects of jurisdiction and powers in the assigned area of ​​responsibility

The principle of "Openness"

Basic goals

1. improving the quality of life of the population,

2. growth of the Russian economy

3. ensure the security of the country

Main functions

The first group of functions is associated with the assessment of internal and external conditions and trends in socio-economic development and the identification on this basis of the opportunities and limitations of socio-economic development.

The second group of functions is related to goal setting. According to the law, the task of the state strategic planning system is to timely determine the specific goals of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the future and clearly formulate the priorities of socio-economic policy.

The third group of functions is aimed at choosing ways and means to achieve established milestones that ensure the most efficient use of available resources.

The implementation of this group of functions requires, in turn, firstly, the formation of a set of measures that ensure the achievement of the goals of socio-economic development in the relevant areas of the economy and social sphere.

The general logical sequence of the most important operations for developing a political forecast is reduced to the following main stages.

First stage - pre-forecast orientation ( research program). The tasks for the forecast are refined, the nature of the forecast, its scale, periods of foundation and lead are analyzed, the goal and objectives, working hypotheses are formulated, the methods and the process of organizing forecasting are determined. However, the main the moment is the analysis of the object of forecasting. The purpose of the analysis is the development of a predictive model that allows obtaining predictive information about the object. The description of the object begins already during the development of the task for the forecast. First, a preliminary description is made. It contains information about the most generalized indicators of the object. Here the leading role is usually played by the experience and intuition of specialists.

political forecasting exploratory normative

When analyzing the object of forecasting, methodological principles must be observed. So principle consistency requires considering the object and the forecast background in accordance with the goals and objectives of the study. Principle natural specificity implies the obligatory consideration of the specifics of the nature of the object of forecasting, the patterns of its development, the absolute and calculated values ​​of the limits of development. If this principle is violated (especially often occurring during formal extrapolation of the process), errors can reach large sizes, and forecasts become simply absurd. For example, the formal extrapolation of the growth and significance of the proletarian, class ideology ultimately led to the denial of social democratic thought, led to the ignorance of the achievements of universal human values.

Principle analogy involves, when analyzing an object, a constant comparison of its properties with similar objects and their models known in the field in order to find an analogue object and use its model or its individual elements in the analysis and forecasting. The principle allows, on the one hand, to minimize the costs of analysis and forecasting by using a part of ready-made forecasting models, and on the other hand, it provides verification of forecasts by comparing with forecasts of analogous objects.

Second stage development forecast - construction of the initial (basic) model of the predicted object by the methods of system analysis. To refine the model, a survey of the population and experts is possible. In the theory of system analysis, two approaches to the analysis and synthesis of such structures are used, which are also applicable to the analysis of forecasting objects.

First an approach called object, it involves the allocation of subsystems by element-by-element division of objects into smaller ones. Each of the latter is then considered as an object of prediction of the corresponding level of the hierarchy. With this structuring, each system (subsystem) is considered as a set of properties and relationships of the corresponding object. The object principle of system structure analysis is recommended when the object has a quantitatively complex structure with relatively low complexity and diversity of constituent subsystems (primary objects). It is advisable to single out groups of primary objects with similar properties and analyze the most typical characteristics of each group. This greatly simplifies the solution of the problem.

Second an approach To analysis And synthesis structures called functional. It differs from the object one in that a functional attribute is taken as the basis for the structural division of an object. This approach is recommended when the number of primary objects that make up the forecast object is small, but they themselves are very complex in their characteristics and relationships. Then it is expedient to single out groups of similar functions and trace their implementation, regardless of whether they belong to one or another primary object.

Third stage development forecast - collection of forecast background data by the methods mentioned above The forecast background is a set of conditions external to the forecasting object that are essential for solving the problem of political forecasting. For example, forecasting the stability of the political system requires taking into account forecasts of economic development for the future as a necessary condition. Without this, it is hardly possible to count on the accuracy of the political forecast.

Fourth stage - construction of time series of indicators - the basis, the core of future predictive models by extrapolation methods; it is possible to generalize this material in the form of predictive pre-model scenarios. Dynamic series is a time series retrospective values ​​of the predictor object variable. In turn, the variable of the forecasting object means the quantitative characteristic of the object, which is or is taken as changing during the foundation period and the lead time of the forecast.

Fifth stage - building a series of hypothetical (preliminary) search models using the methods of search analysis of profile and background indicators with specification of the minimum, maximum and most probable value. As you know, the content of the search forecast is to determine the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future. Search methods usually include extrapolation, as well as historical analogy, scripting, analytical method, etc.

Sixth stage - construction of a series of hypothetical normative models of the predicted object using the methods of normative analysis with the specification of the values ​​of the absolute (i.e., unlimited forecast background) and relative (i.e., tied to this framework) optimum according to predetermined criteria in accordance with specified norms, ideals, goals. Goals and norms must be realistic.

Seventh stage - assessment of the reliability and accuracy, as well as the validity (verification) of the forecast - the refinement of hypothetical models by methods of interviewing experts.

The art of political forecasting consists in being able, based on the objective laws of the development of certain phenomena, to be able to determine the future qualities, direction and nature of the development of these phenomena and at the same time to be able to direct this development in the right direction in accordance with the goal set. How many minds today are busy finding the answer to the question: “Where are we going? ” (2) .

In general, methods for checking the reliability of a forecast should be considered its scientific validity, logical evidence, experimental verification, and intuitive evidence.

Eighth stage - development of recommendations for decisions in the field of management based on a comparison of search and regulatory models. Area Changes domestic and foreign policy clearly requires that when making political decisions, forecasting developments are taken into account as much as possible. This imposes a huge responsibility on political forecasters.

Ninth stage - analysis (examination) of the prepared forecast and recommendations, their revision taking into account the discussion and delivery to the customer.

Tenth stage - a new pre-forecast orientation based on a comparison of the materials of an already developed forecast with new data on the forecast background and a new cycle of research (forecasting should be as continuous as goal-setting, planning, and management in general, the increase in the efficiency of which it is intended to serve).

Here the following remarks must be made:

the effectiveness of forecasts of political events cannot be reduced only to the degree of their reliability and accuracy. It is equally important to know to what extent this or that forecast helps to increase the validity, objectivity, and effectiveness of political decisions developed on its basis.

the verifiability of forecasts has significant features that distinguish it from the verification of forecasts of analysis or diagnosis (inference) data. In forecasting, in addition to absolute verification, i.e. empirical confirmation or denial of the correctness of the hypothesis, there is a relative (preliminary) verification. It allows the development of scientific research and the practical use of its result until the possibility of absolute verifiability. Methods of relative verification are known: this is a verification of the results obtained, but not yet amenable to absolute verifiability, by control studies.

Of course, with regard to the forecast, absolute testability is possible only after the transition of the lead period from the future to the past.

Even a preliminary acquaintance with modern forecasting tools shows that the latter is by no means universal and not omnipotent, that it is not able to replace foresight.

The peculiarities of the methods for developing a forecast impose fundamental restrictions on the possibilities of forecasting both in the range of time (five to ten years) and in the range of objects of study (not all phenomena are equally amenable to predictive estimates).

In conclusion, we present 9 questions of the questionnaire for experts, which can be (upon completion) used in writing predictive scenarios.

• 1. Essence of political forecasting.
• 2. Objective bases of political forecasting.
• 3. Some forms of political forecasting.

I. The term "prognosis" (from the Greek "prognosis") means foresight, prediction. Forecasting is the development of a forecast.

Forecasting is usually understood in a broad and narrow sense.

In broad terms, this is the development of a probable judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future. In the narrow sense, this is a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less certain periods of change in this phenomenon. According to B.I. Krasnova "in its most general form, forecasting is a leading reflection of reality."

The main reason why a person engages in forecasting is that there are phenomena whose future he does not know, but they are important for the decisions he makes today. Therefore, he seeks to penetrate his intellect into the future. Each forecast is designed to avoid the undesirable outcomes of likely developments and accelerate the likely development in the desired direction, as well as to adjust to the inevitable.

Therefore, forecasting as one of the forms of scientific foresight is in the social sphere in conjunction with goal setting, planning, programming, design, and management. Where objects are uncontrollable, especially in nature, unconditional prediction takes place in order to adjust actions to the expected state of the object.

Forecasting in the social sphere as a scientific prediction, prediction of the future state of an object requires information about the past and present state of this object, about its development trends. But even with the availability of initial data, we are not able to make a forecast if we do not understand the social and economic relationships within the process, object, phenomenon. Therefore, forecasting must be based on a certain theory. Without a theory, it will be a simple collection of information and various assumptions.

Forecasting is practiced in all spheres of society. One of its directions is political forecasting, the object of which is politics. As you know, a distinction is made between internal and external politics. Each of the two main policy areas has its own specifics. Therefore, forecasting in the field of politics comes in two forms: domestic political and foreign policy.

To identify the essence of political forecasting, it is necessary to characterize its features and specifics. This specificity is primarily manifested in the originality of the forecasting object, and then the associated features of the goals and objectives of developing forecasts, as well as the approach to choosing forecasting methods.

The object of political forecasting is very wide and complex in structure. Therefore, the concept of "political forecasting" means a multifaceted and diverse activity in conducting special scientific research and developing forecasts for numerous policy components, in the field of their versatile interrelations and interactions, as well as in the field of interconnections with other spheres of society: economic, social, spiritual.

Political forecasts are developed in order to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of decisions made, to avoid an undesirable course of events in various areas of political life and in areas of policy impact on the economy, social and spiritual spheres.

In general, in the area under consideration, the most important task of forecasting is the identification of promising political problems and the best ways to solve them in the interests of optimizing the management of political processes, as well as the prediction of certain political events, both desirable and undesirable.

The typology of political forecasts is based on various criteria depending on the goal, objectives, objects, the nature of the lead period, methods and other factors.

On the basis of the problem-target criterion, that is, depending on what the forecast is being developed for, there are search and normative forecasts.

According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - there are operational (up to 1 month), short-term (up to 1 year), medium-term (usually up to 5 years), long-term (up to 15-20 years) and long-term (outside of long-term) .

The objective basis for predicting political events is that their future lies in the present, but only in the possibility. Therefore, scientific forecasts of political events, phenomena and processes are meaningful, conscious opportunities for the development of the political life of society, taken in their theoretical validity.

Possibility exists objectively in reality itself as a hidden tendency of its further development. Therefore, there is no other way to predict the future, except for the knowledge of the possibilities, trends, concluded in the present state of the political system. Thus, a scientific forecast reveals a future political event as something objectively determined by the previous course of things, that is, something determined, predetermined by the laws of development and functioning of the political system.

It is usually believed that behind the new phenomena, facts and processes of the development of the present is the future, that they have a future. However, it can be stated with certainty only taking into account the action of the laws of development of political forecast objects discovered by science. In other words, the most important basis for forecasting is the operation of the objective laws of a certain area of ​​reality, in this case political.

Political life is one of the spheres of life of people, society. And it, like other spheres, has essential, stable, repetitive and necessary connections and relationships, that is, objective patterns.

Laws that operate in the socio-political field appear as trends or opportunities that do not always turn into reality. This, of course, makes it difficult to develop political forecasts.

The systemic structure of the political sphere of society is also an objective basis for forecasting. Any system is a set of interrelated and interacting elements that form a certain integrity, unity. The properties of a system are not reduced to the sum of the properties of its components. The system actively influences its components and transforms them according to its own nature. At the same time, a change in some elements can lead to a certain change in the entire system. The system is hierarchical in its essence: each of its elements, in turn, can be considered as a system, and the system under study itself is only one of the components of a wider system. All this must be taken into account when setting the goals and objectives of forecasting within the framework of the functioning and development of the political system, when developing forecasts and using them in practical politics.

The practice of forecasting and its theoretical understanding have shown that in the implementation of this activity it is necessary to be guided by certain principles. The most important of them are the principles of alternativeness and verification.

The principle of alternativeness in this case means that when developing a forecast, all probable directions for the development of an object, various options for turning an existing opportunity into reality, must be provided and justified.

The principle of verification (verifiability) means that the forecast must contain the possibility of its confirmation or refutation. A forecast that can neither be confirmed nor refuted is useless. Verification is an empirical verification of theoretical positions by comparing them with observed objects.

Currently, political forecasting has a number of methods. Among them are extrapolation, modeling, expertise, collective idea generation, scenario building, predictive graphs, and other groups of methods. Each group contains several ways to develop forecasts.

Some political scientists subdivide the methods of political forecasting into objective and speculative. Objective - these are methods that are based on existing trends established by experience. In this case, the decision is made on the same basis. These methods include extrapolation, modeling, expertise, and some others. Speculative - these are methods that are based on intuitive reasoning, on understanding the foundations of science and culture. Such methods include collective idea generation ("brainstorming"), scripting, predictive graphs, and many others.

Let us briefly consider some groups of methods of both types.

One of the most important methods of modern socio-economic and political forecasting is extrapolation. Its essence lies in the fact that reliable conclusions on one part of a phenomenon apply to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole, to the future of this phenomenon. Extrapolation is the leading method of predicting the future based on existing, current trends.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge, that is, phenomena, processes, systems, on their models. The possibility of modeling, that is, transferring the results obtained during the construction and study of the model, to the original, is based on the fact that the model in a certain sense displays, reproduces, models some of its aspects. Modeling forecasting is based on the fact that the model has a theoretical basis. In the absence of a theory that would serve as a basis for developing an assumption about future relationships, information about the present alone is not enough for this.

Among the speculative methods, we will consider brainstorming, that is, the method of sudden ideas (in Russian terminology, "brainstorming"). The first stage of brainstorming is the generation of a large number of ideas in a short period of time and in a small group (5-12 people). At this stage, no assessment or comment is made about the feasibility of these ideas, which could lead to premature rejection. After this creative stage is completed, the ideas are combined and evaluated, additional possibilities are created for the options for likely events, then the most important predictive ideas are highlighted.

The specific methods by which political forecasting is conducted are formed by combining a number of methods.

Forecasting management decisions is most closely related to planning. The plan and the forecast are mutually complementary stages of planning with the determining role of the plan as the leading link in management.

Forecast in the control system is a pre-planned development of multivariant models for the development of the control object. Terms, volumes of work, numerical characteristics of the object and other indicators in the forecast are of a probabilistic nature and necessarily provide for the possibility of making adjustments.

Unlike the forecast plan contains unambiguously the lifetime of the event and the characteristics of the planned object. For planned developments, the most rational predictive option is used.

Predictive developments are an integral part of complex targeted programs.

At development of forecasts the following can be distinguished stages:

preparation for the development of the forecast;

analysis of retrospective information (for 2 or more years), internal and external conditions;

determination of the most probable options for the development of internal and external conditions;

conducting an examination;

development of alternative options;

a priori and a posteriori assessment of the quality of the forecast;

monitoring the progress of implementation and adjusting the forecast.

Flowchart of the main stages of forecast development

1. At the stage preparation for the development of the forecast the following tasks should be solved:

– organizational support for the development of the forecast was prepared;

– a task for the forecast was formulated;

– working and analytical support groups were formed;

- formed an expert commission;

- prepared methodological support for the development of the forecast;

– the information base for the forecast was prepared;

– computer support for the development of the forecast was prepared.

After the decision on the development of the forecast is made, it is necessary to determine the performers who will be entrusted with the development. On the one hand, this is a group of employees who are entrusted with organizational support for the development of the forecast, on the other hand, this is a group of specialists that must provide methodological and informational support for it.

A high-quality expert forecast can only be developed if it is well prepared, if competent specialists are involved in its development, if reliable information is used, if the estimates are correctly obtained and processed.

The task for developing a forecast should be clear, unambiguously understood by both experts and specialists accompanying the development of the forecast.

Forecasting is iterative in nature, which means simultaneous research and forecasting of an object at any stage of preparing a management decision.

Experts who are professionally familiar with the object of expertise are invited to the composition of the expert commission.

If a multidimensional assessment of an object is required, or heterogeneous objects should be assessed and this requires specialists of various professional orientations, then the expert commission should be formed in such a way that it includes specialists who are able to professionally evaluate all the main aspects of the predicted problem.

The development of the forecast must be carried out methodically competently, the methods used must correspond to the nature of the forecasted situation and the information to be obtained, analyzed and processed.

The methodological preparation of the forecasting process should be carried out by an analytical group, which includes specialists with professional knowledge and experience in conducting forecasting developments.

The development of a forecast should be clearly regulated. The working group must prepare the necessary documentation, which includes an official decision to carry out the forecast, the composition of the expert commission (commissions), the forecast development schedule, contracts (labor agreements) with specialists involved in its development, etc.

Specialists working on the forecast should be provided with all the necessary information about the object of forecasting. Naturally, when developing a forecast, it is always not enough (an ideal, but, unfortunately, unrealistic situation, when it is known exactly what will happen in the future), and the more complete the information about the object of forecasting, the better the prepared forecast can be.

It is not uncommon to find a specially prepared analytical review on a foreseen problem prepared by the reflection group.

When working on a forecast, especially if it is a multivariate forecast, one has to deal with large amounts of information, which, moreover, must be analyzed and processed in accordance with the forecast development technology used.

Therefore, without the use of modern computer technology and, above all, a PC with specially prepared databases, modules for input, analysis and processing of information, often operating in the mode of an automated workplace (AWP), automatic printing of reports on the work done, intermediate and final results containing and the forecast itself, effective work on a forecast that meets modern requirements is usually impossible.

The use of NIT for solving problems of scientific and technical forecasting significantly reduces the amount of labor costs for the collection and preparation of initial data, allows forecasters to concentrate their efforts on the content of this process.

2. When analysis of retrospective information about the object of forecasting, a clear separation of quantitative and qualitative information is assumed.

Quantitative information, if it is sufficient and reliable, is used to extrapolate the dynamics of changes in predicted parameters, to determine the most likely trends in their changes.

Qualitative information is classified, systematized and serves as the basis for expert assessments and, along with quantitative information, is used to develop expert forecasts.

For the successful development of a forecast, it is necessary to analyze the internal conditions of the object of forecasting, a meaningful analysis of their features and dynamics of development.

If there is quantitative information characterizing the internal conditions of the forecasting object, then it is also analyzed.

The task of analyzing the internal and external conditions of the forecasting object is to identify the main operating forces and mechanisms that determine the development of the forecasting object in the period corresponding to the forecasting period.

If mathematical, simulation, analog and other models of the functioning of the forecasting object and changes in internal conditions are developed, then the necessary data are entered into them and, on their basis, calculations are made to assess the most probable changes in the internal conditions of the forecasting object.

In particular, if the object of forecasting is an organization, then the internal conditions of the object of forecasting may include its internal environment, including a combination of such components as structure, internal organizational processes, technology, personnel, organizational culture, management of functional processes.

When developing a forecast of external conditions, the external environment of the functioning of the object of forecasting should be given no less attention than the internal one.

At the same time, information should also be divided into quantitative and qualitative, i.e. information containing precise numerical estimates, and information of a descriptive nature. Depending on the type of information, the appropriate methods for obtaining, analyzing and processing it are used.

If the object of forecasting is an organization, then the external conditions can be divided into the general external environment and the immediate business environment of the organization.

The general external environment is not directly related to the organization and reflects the state of society, the economy, and the natural environment.

The immediate business environment of an organization is created by customers, suppliers, business partners, competitors, administrative bodies, business associations and associations, etc.

3. Determination of the most probable options for the development of internal and external conditions of the object of forecasting is one of the central tasks of developing a forecast. The accuracy of the developed forecast and the effectiveness of decisions made on its basis depend on how correctly they are determined.

At this stage of developing a forecast, based on all available information about the object of forecasting, a list of possible alternatives is determined changes in internal and external conditions.

After their preliminary evaluation from the list those alternative options are excluded, the feasibility of which in the forecast period is doubtful or the probability of their realization is below a predetermined threshold value.

The remaining alternatives are subject to a more in-depth evaluation in order to determination of alternative options for changing internal and external conditions, the implementation of which is most likely.

Each of the selected most probable alternative options for changing the internal and external conditions for the functioning of the forecasting object is worked out in detail and presented for the development of alternative forecast options for each of the selected alternative options for changing the conditions for the functioning of the forecasting object.

4. Conducting an examination.

Examination is the study of any object, situation, issue requiring special knowledge, with the presentation of a reasoned conclusion.

At this stage of the development of the forecast, the most active work of experts is expected to identify and evaluate the key events that are expected to occur in the forecasted period of time.

The previous stage of development of the forecast provides the information necessary for the analytical team to conduct an examination.

Experts are provided with information on the most likely change in internal and external conditions, based on the previous analysis, questions are formulated that should be answered as a result of the examination, and the most likely scenarios for the development of events are outlined.

Procedures for the organization and conduct of examinations are currently developed in sufficient detail.

Depending on the nature of the object of forecasting, on the nature of the assessments and judgments that must be obtained in the process of conducting an examination, the methods of organizing and conducting an examination are determined more specifically.

Examinations can be single-round and multi-round, anonymous and providing for an open exchange of opinions, with and without information exchange during the examination, etc.

The nature of the specific information that is supposed to be used in the development of the forecast imposes certain requirements on the choice of a specific method for organizing and conducting an examination.

If the predicted object is quite complex, complex, multidimensional, then it is advisable to use complex methods for organizing and conducting an examination.

When conducting a review to develop a forecast, the analytical team should prepare questionnaires containing questions that must be answered when developing the forecast.

Depending on the technological level of the organization and the examination, the questionnaires can be prepared both on paper and on machine media.

To obtain expert information, such a method as interviewing can also be used, when, in a free form, but according to a predetermined plan, the expert gives the estimates and judgments necessary for developing a forecast.

Moreover, when interviewing, a departure from a pre-planned plan is possible. The interviewer should ensure that the best possible estimates are obtained.

To obtain expert information when developing a forecast, it is possible to use the method of mixed questioning, when elements of both questioning and interviewing are used when working with an expert.

5. Development of alternative options.

The information prepared at the previous stages, including the information received from experts, is used in the direct development of the forecast. As a rule, cases are unlikely when it is known in advance in which direction changes in internal and external conditions will occur, which strategy will be chosen by the organization in a given development of events. After all, the development of the organization in the predicted future depends on various factors, as well as on their combination and interaction.

From what has been said, it follows that in strategic planning and in other cases of using forecasts, it is necessary to consider various alternative scenarios for the development of events, both favorable and unfavorable.

At the previous stages, the most probable changes in the main internal and external conditions that determine the course of predicted events were determined.

For the most probable alternatives for their changes, the most probable alternatives for the development of the predicted events should be developed.

If one of the goals of developing a forecast was to determine the dynamics of development of quantitative indicators and parameters, then using the amount of information (quantitative and qualitative) obtained at the previous stages of developing a forecast and the corresponding extrapolation methods (determining changes in predicted indicators and parameters in the future), curves of their change are calculated within the predicted time frame.

However, we do not always have the necessary information to use quantitative extrapolation methods. This may be the absence (in particular, characteristic of the current stage of the economic life of Russia) of the statistical data necessary for the calculations, since the previous economic dependencies and patterns have changed. Therefore, often the only way to extrapolate indicators and parameters for a predicted period of time is the method of constructing expert curves. Expert curves reflect the assessment of the dynamics of predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters by experts.

When developing a variant forecast, an extrapolation of the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters for various variants of the initial conditions and for various possible alternative variants of the dynamics of their change should be extrapolated.

Along with the extrapolation of predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters, especially in the case of involving experts to develop a forecast, each alternative version of the developed forecast can be accompanied by a meaningful description of the predicted development of events.

6. A priori and a posteriori estimation of forecast quality.

A posteriori - based on experience.

A priori - regardless of previous experience.

Forecast quality assessment- one of the central problems in the process of developing management decisions. The degree of confidence in the developed forecast largely affects the decision made and affects the effectiveness of management decisions made using the developed forecast.

However, no matter how unexpected it may seem, assessing the quality of a forecast is a rather difficult task not only at the moment when the forecast has just been developed (a priori estimate), but also at the moment when the predicted event has already occurred (a posteriori estimate). Before proceeding to the discussion of forecast quality assessment, we note the fact that a qualitative forecast can be used in different ways for a clearer understanding of the decision-making process, which is important for a clearer understanding of the decision-making process. If the management of the organization does not have a significant impact on the course of events, but only monitors it, then after the end of the forecast period, it is only necessary to compare the values ​​of the predicted indicators and parameters with those obtained in reality. This makes it possible to evaluate the quality of the developed forecast a posteriori.

At the same time, perhaps, it may be more effective to use the results of the developed forecast in the case when the decision maker can influence the course of events. An example of such an influence can be, in particular, the adjustment of control actions based on the expected predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters. This is the so-called active forecast. However, if, as a result of the analysis of the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters, the decision maker changed the control actions, which, in turn, changed the development of the predicted events, and often in the direction more favorable for the decision maker, then it is hardly correct to consider the originally developed forecast inaccurate.

If the forecast had not been developed, then the effective management decision that followed its development would not have been made. Once a forecast has been developed, criteria must be defined by which the accuracy of the forecast can be judged.

As a rule, two methods are used to evaluate the forecast: differential or integral.

With the differential method, sets of estimates of individual components of the quality of the forecast are evaluated, which have a fairly clear objective meaning.

In particular, criteria such as the clarity and clarity of the task for the forecast, the correspondence of the forecast to the task, the timeliness of the development of the forecast, the professional level of the development of the forecast, the reliability of the information used, etc. can be used.

The integral method assumes a generalized assessment of the quality of the forecast based on the assessment of the quality of the forecast according to particular criteria. However, in some cases this method is not convincing enough, since the assessment of the quality of the forecast according to particular criteria is wittingly or unwittingly added to the need to assess the comparative importance of the criteria and their influence on the integral assessment.

An example of the use of the integral method can be the criterion of "integral quality of an expert forecast" - an assessment of the forecast, which, in particular, implies an assessment according to the above particular criteria.

If we talk about an expert forecast, then its quality is determined, first of all, by such particular criteria as:

- competence (or in a more general form - quality) of an expert;

– the quality of the information provided to the experts;

– the quality of expert information coming from experts;

– the level of forecast development technology or, in other words, the quality of the methods and procedures used in forecast development.

If the forecasting period has already ended, then it is necessary to compare the predicted values ​​of indicators and parameters with those obtained as a result of the course of predicted events realized from reality.

To conduct such an assessment, it is necessary to take into account all the main factors that determine the quality of the developed forecast.

7. Monitoring the implementation progress and adjusting the forecast.

After the forecast is prepared and presented to the management of the organization, the customer, etc., a new stage of work with the prepared material begins.

An integral part of modern forecasting technology is periodically carried out (depending on the ongoing changes) monitoring of the implementation of the predicted development of events.

Monitoring allows timely detection of significant deviations in the course of events. If they can have a fundamental impact on the further course of events in terms of making important strategic decisions, then the forecast should be subject to adjustment.

It must be clearly understood that forecasts are not valuable in themselves, as an opportunity to professionally predict the expected course of events in a particular area of ​​human activity, but to a greater extent as a necessary and very essential element in the development of important management decisions.

Therefore, when significant deviations are revealed in the course of events in the forecasted area of ​​activity, especially in the case of an active forecast, appropriate adjustments should be made to the already developed forecast.

Adjustments can be of different levels of significance, complexity, labor intensity, etc. If they are not very significant, then this problem can be solved at the level of the analytical group that accompanies the development of the forecast.

If the adjustments are more significant, then additional involvement of individual experts may be required, and in especially important cases, if there are significant changes, additional work of the expert commission with a possible change in composition.

The structure of the forecast is determined by the terms for which it is calculated, as well as the main directions of scientific and technological development, which primarily depend on the "lifetime" of the trends that have developed in the period preceding their development. The more stable these trends are, the wider the forecast horizon can be. Different reproductive processes have different flow rates, different time cycles. The cycle of reproduction of instruments is much shorter than the cycle of production of machine tools and other equipment, the timing of the renewal of engineering products is largely determined by the dynamics of the technical level of tools.

The forecast is a pre-planning document and therefore its implementation in practice means the development of a scientifically based strategy of the company, a business plan based on the use of forecast options for quality indicators, the cost of achieving it and other information.

Forecasting management decisions aims to obtain evidence-based development alternatives for various indicators that are used in R&D, as well as for the development of the entire management system. It turns out that forecasting management decisions is part of the management system and contributes to the development of the entire system as a whole.

But the decision maker must remember that only decisions and plans are ideal, and people and circumstances are always real, and therefore every managerial decision, every plan carries the possibility of not only success, but also failure.

Science-based forecasting is an important tool of modern management. It is used both for strategic planning of the development of individual enterprises and for the development of long-term socio-economic programs at the state level. The structure and steps of this process are closely related to the methodology and the adopted model.

Forecasting is a system of theoretically substantiated ideas about the possible future states of an object and about the directions of its development. This concept is similar to the term hypothesis, but, unlike the latter, it is based on quantitative indicators and has greater reliability. A common feature of these two concepts is that they explore an object or process that does not yet exist.

Applied forecasting techniques were actively developed in the 70s. XX century, and the boom of their use abroad continues to this day. This is mainly due to a new direction in research - global issues, the main task of which is to solve the world's resource, demographic and environmental problems.

Forecasting is a science that has a close relationship with statistics and its analytical methods. In carrying out the analysis, the achievements of mathematics, natural and other sciences are widely used.

Forecasting and planning complement each other in various variations. In most cases, a forecast is developed before a plan is created. He can also follow the plan - to determine the possible consequences. In large-scale studies (at the state or regional level), the forecast can act as the plan itself.

Goals

The main task of forecasting is to identify effective ways to manage socio-economic processes in society or the economic and technical development of an enterprise.

The methodological bases for achieving these goals are as follows:

• analysis of trends in the development of the economy and technology;
• anticipation of various options;
• comparison of existing trends and goals;
• assessment of the possible consequences of the adopted economic decisions.

Forecast methods

Forecasting is carried out according to a certain methodology, which is understood as a system of indicators and approaches to the object under study, the logic of research. Other parameters also depend on which method is chosen - how many forecasting stages will be carried out and what their content will be.

Among the huge number of forecasting methods, the following main groups can be distinguished:

1. Individual expert assessments:

• Interview - information is obtained during the conversation (formalized and non-formalized, preparatory and independent, directed and non-directed).
• Questionnaire survey (individual, group, mass, full-time and correspondence questioning).
• Development of a predictive scenario (used in the areas of management activities).
• Analytical method - building a tree of goals (for assessing hierarchical or structural processes).

2. Collective expert assessments based on obtaining an agreed opinion in a group of experts:

• meetings;
• "round tables";
• "Delphi";
• "brainstorm";
• court method.

3. Formalized methods based on the use of mathematical evaluation methods:

• extrapolation;
• math modeling;
• morphological method and others.

4. Complex techniques that combine several of the above:

• "double tree" (used for basic research and R&D);
• predictive graph;
• "Pattern" and others.

A correctly chosen forecasting method significantly affects its errors. For example, strategic planning does not use the method of extrapolation (foresight beyond experimental data or the distribution of properties from one subject area to another).

Stages

The sequence of forecasting stages in the general case is the work carried out according to the following scheme:

1. Preparation.
2. Analysis of internal and external conditions in retrospect.
3. Development of options for the development of events along an alternative path.
4. Expertise.
5. Selection of a suitable model.
6. Her assessment.
7. Analysis of the quality of the expertise (a priori and a posteriori).
8. Implementation of predictive developments, their control and adjustment (if necessary).

Below is a description of the main stages of forecasting and their characteristics.

Preparatory stage

At the first stage, the following questions are solved:

1. Pre-forecast orientation (formulation of the object of study, problem statement, definition of goals and objectives, primary modeling, formulation of working hypotheses).
2. Information and organizational preparation.
3. Formulation of the assignment for the forecast.
4. Preparation of computer support.

At the staging stage of forecasting, the performers who must carry out the forecast are also determined. This group may consist of competent employees responsible for organizational work and information support, and also includes an expert commission.

The following points are documented:

• prediction decision;
• the composition of the working commissions;
• work schedule;
• analytical review on the problem under study;
• contracts or other agreements with specialists involved in forecasting.

Analysis

At the second, analytical stage of forecasting, the following types of work are carried out:

• research of information about the object in retrospect;
• separation of qualitative and quantitative indicators;
• analysis of internal conditions (in relation to an enterprise, this can be: its organizational structure, technologies, personnel, production culture and other qualitative parameters);
• study and assessment of external conditions (interaction with business partners, suppliers, competitors and consumers, the general state of the economy and society).

In the process of analysis, the current state of the object is diagnosed and the trends of its further development are determined, the main problems and contradictions are identified.

Alternatives

The stage of identifying other, most probable options for the development of an object is one of the key stages of forecasting. The accuracy of the forecast and, accordingly, the effectiveness of decisions made on its basis depend on the correctness of their determination.

At this stage, the following works are performed:

• development of a list of alternative development options;
• exclusion of those processes that in a given period have a probability of implementation below the threshold value;
• detailed study of each additional option.

Expertise

Based on the available information and previous analysis, an expert study of an object, process or situation is carried out. The result of this forecasting stage is a reasonable conclusion and determination of scenarios according to which development will be most likely.

Examination can be carried out in various ways:

• interviewing;
• questioning;
• one-time or multi-round survey of experts;
• anonymous or open exchange of information and other means.

Model selection

A forecasting model is a simplified description of an object or process under study, which allows you to obtain the necessary information about its future state, directions for achieving such a state, and about the interconnections of individual elements of the system. It is chosen based on the research method.

In economics, there are several types of such models:

• functional, describing the operation of the main components;
• models characterized by methods of economic physics (determination of mathematical relationships between various variables of the production process);
• expert (special formulas for processing expert assessments);
• economic, based on determining the dependencies between the economic indicators of the predicted system;
• procedural (describing managerial interactions and their order).

There are also other classifications of models:

1. According to the aspects reflected in them - industrial and social.
2. Models designed to describe income, consumption, demographic processes.
3. Economic models of various levels (long-term for forecasting economic development, intersectoral, sectoral, production).

In predictive models, the following forms of describing phenomena are distinguished:

• text;
• graphical (extrapolation methods);
• network (graphs);
• construction of block diagrams;
• matrix (tables);
• analytical (formulas).

The model is formed using the following methods:

• phenomenological (direct study and observation of occurring phenomena);
• deductive (selection of details from the general model);
• inductive (generalization from particular phenomena).

After selecting the model, a forecast is made for certain periods. The results obtained are compared with currently known information.

Quality control

The stage of verification of the forecast, or verification of its reliability, is carried out on the basis of previous experience (a posteriori) or independently of it (a priori). Quality is assessed using the following criteria: accuracy (scatter of predictive trajectories), reliability (probability of the selected option), reliability (measure of process uncertainty). To assess the deviation of forecast criteria from their actual values, such a concept as forecast errors is used.

In the process of controlling, the results are also compared with other models, and recommendations are developed for managing an object or process, if such an impact can have an impact on the development of events.

There are 2 methods for quality assessment:

1. Differential, in which clear criteria are used (determining the clarity of setting a forecast task, the timeliness of stage-by-stage work, the professional level of performers, the reliability of information sources).
2. Integral (generalized estimate).

Main Factors

The following main factors influence the accuracy of the forecast:

• competence of the expert group;
• the quality of the prepared information;
• accuracy of measurement of economic data;
• the level of methods and procedures used in forecasting;
• correct choice of model;
• consistency of methodological approaches between different specialists.

Often large errors also arise due to the fact that the features of the conditions under which this model is used are not taken into account.

Implementation

The last stage of forecasting is the implementation of the forecast and monitoring the progress of its implementation. If critical deviations are identified that can significantly affect the further development of events, the forecast is corrected.

The level of adoption of corrective decisions may be different. If they are insignificant, then the adjustment is carried out by the analytical group, which is responsible for developing the forecast. In some cases, experts are involved in this work.

Forecasting stages: sequence and characterization - all about traveling to the site

Stages of economic forecasting at the enterprise level

The sequence of actions in the development of each specific forecast may vary, but in general the whole process occurs in three main stages:

• retrospection,
• diagnosis,
• prospection.

1. Forecast retrospectives - the stage of forecasting, at which the history of the development of the object of forecasting and the forecast background are examined in order to obtain their systematic description.

   At the stage of retrospection, the following tasks are solved:

   • formation of a description of the forecast object in the past;
   • final formulation and refinement of the forecasting problem.

   This stage usually includes the following activities:

   • predictive analysis of the object. Based on the assignment for the forecast and the previous study of the object, they clarify the list of characteristics and parameters of the object considered in the submitted assignment, give previous estimates of their importance and interconnections;
   • identification and evaluation of sources of information, the procedure for organizing and working with them. The final formulation of the problem statement;
   • collection of retrospective information and formation of a database for practical calculations.

2. Predictive diagnosis is the stage of forecasting, at which a systematic description of the object of forecasting and the predictive background is examined in order to identify dependencies.

   At the stage of diagnosis, the following tasks are solved:

   • development of a forecast object model;
   • choice of forecasting method.

   At this stage, the following research steps are carried out:

   • creation of a formalized description of the object (mathematical model) based on the accepted structure of the object and the received retrospective information;
   • determination of the current values ​​of the characteristics of the object based on information sources, checking the degree of adequacy of the forecast object model;
   • implementation of the choice of a forecasting method that is adequate for the classification of the object, the nature of its development and the task of forecasting;
   • choice of tools (software) for the forecasting process.

3. Prospection is the stage of forecasting, at which, based on the results of the diagnosis, forecasts of the object of forecasting and the forecast background are developed, and the reliability and accuracy of the forecast are assessed.

   The prospecting stage involves obtaining forecast results based on all previous stages:

   • calculation of predictive parameters for a given lead period;
   • harmonization and synthesis of individual forecasts in accordance with accepted rules;
   • verification of the forecast and determination of the degree of its accuracy.

Remark 1

Such a sequence in the development of forecasts is typical for forecasting methods based on mathematical modeling of objects. In the case of using expert forecasting methods, the composition and content of the stages change somewhat.

The development of the forecast is completed, as a rule, by the development of recommendations for decision-making. After a certain time, the forecast is reviewed, and based on its results, the forecast and recommendations are finalized.

Stages of economic forecasting at the macro level

The process of forecasting macroeconomic indicators can be represented as the following successive stages:

1. Elementary:

   • identification of objects and forecast period;
   • formulation of the objectives of the development of the forecast;
   • identification of sources of information;
   • substantiation of forecasting tools.

2. Analytical:

   • formation of a system of reasonable indicators for each goal;
   • determination of a group of experts for analysis;
   • collection and analysis of information to determine the state of the forecast object.

3. Organizational:

   • formation of a team of performers;
   • substantiation of the system of main indicators for forecasting.

4. Predictive:

   • development of direct forecast;
   • determination of alternative forecast scenarios.

5. Final:

   • monitoring the level of performance by forecast options;
   • development of a control system;
   • stimulation and regulation of the process of realization of forecast values.