Analysis of enterprise risks using an example. Fundamental research Assessment of economic risks using the example of an enterprise

1.3 Risk management

In the risk management system, an important role is played by the correct choice of measures to prevent and minimize risk, which largely determine its effectiveness. The risk reduction system includes certain methods and ways:

1. Obtaining comprehensive information about the upcoming choice and result.

2. Risk avoidance.

3. Diversification.

4. Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses.

5. Limitation.

6. Hedging.

7. Risk insurance, self-insurance.

8. Checking business partners and terms of the transaction. Business planning.

9. Recruitment of personnel for a business organization.

10. Transfer of risk.

11. Other methods.

The choice of a particular risk minimization method above depends on the experience and capabilities of the entrepreneur and any other manager. For a more effective result, a combination of methods is usually used.

In his activities, a manager encounters many risks, therefore, in addition to the basic methods of minimizing them, he uses specific methods that are used only in this case. Ways to minimize the most common risks are given in Table 1.2. (Appendix 2)

Indeed, actions aimed at mitigating risk can be very different. People enroll in extreme driving courses to reduce the likelihood of getting into an accident in difficult conditions - this is also a strategy for mitigating, minimizing, eliminating risk. The choice of one method or another depends on the specific situation, the degree of risk and the capabilities of the enterprise. This is what determines the fundamental decision: accept the risk, reducing its negative consequences using various methods, or avoid it.

In the process of carrying out business activities, a company may refuse to carry out financial transactions or activities associated with a high level of risk. This direction of risk neutralization is the simplest and most radical; it will completely avoid potential losses, but does not at all contribute to obtaining profits associated with risky activities.

When concluding any transaction, to reduce the risk of business contracts, the entrepreneur needs to check the prospective partner. The basic rule of business is “trust, but verify.” A possible way to avoid mistakes when choosing a partner is to create your own system for collecting and analyzing information about potential or existing counterparties. As an example in this case, you can use the Due Diligence system practiced by Western banks in relation to their clients. This system provides protection against various types of fraud. One of the main tools of such a system is a questionnaire, including questions about the name of the counterparty company and the addresses of its offices for the last two to three years; about the types of business it carries out. The questionnaire may contain questions about the company's partners and their addresses, it includes questions about the financial condition of the company and the expected turnover or future average account balance. The most difficult questions in the questionnaire are related to the origin of the company's capital. Such a questionnaire provides preliminary information about the client, and if something in his answers is alarming, additional research should be carried out, including a search for confirmation (or refutation) of the data received, a search for facts that the partner has kept silent about, as well as checking information through others counterparties.

Risk diversification is perhaps the most complex and interesting risk management method that requires high professionalism. It represents the use of the economic and mathematical concept of “negative correlation” in economic practice. Invested funds are directed to completely independent transactions and projects that are in no way related to each other. In this case, if a risk event occurs and losses occur on one transaction, you can count on a successful and profitable outcome of another. Moreover, it is advisable to focus on negatively correlated outcomes, that is, to choose investment values (objects) with directly opposite profitability vectors. Then profits on one transaction will be able to compensate for possible losses on another.

When forming a securities portfolio, the problem of risk diversification is given particularly serious attention. First of all, the “rule of a dozen” applies. It is necessary to ensure a sufficient variety of securities. Therefore, generally accepted practice dictates that a bank’s portfolio should contain at least twelve blocks of shares in a wide variety of companies. Next, pay attention to the level of profitability and degree of risk of the securities. High-yield securities typically involve a considerable degree of risk. Securities with acceptable risk yield correspondingly very moderate returns. And low-risk securities are ineffective and not interesting for the bank. The “five finger rule” offers a way out of this situation. It follows from it that to form an optimal portfolio, out of every five shares, one should be low-risk, three should be with normal, acceptable risk, and one should be high-risk, but also high-yielding.

In addition, the financial sector of the economy often uses a method of risk diversification, called “risk hedging.” Risk hedging involves limiting the amount of losses with financial instruments, but as a consequence, profits too. It is carried out in the form of concluding parallel financial compensation transactions, when a possible loss on one transaction is compensated by a possible profit on another. There are many ways to hedge risks, but the main, most used and frequently encountered are options, futures and swap transactions.

The next step in solving the problem of risk management is to study the possibility of full or partial self-insurance of the transaction. Self-insurance is nothing more than taking risks on oneself and, undoubtedly, is the cheapest (with the possible exception of renouncing risks) way of dealing with risks. It is assumed that possible damage will be covered with current funds or with the help of a reserve fund. Therefore, it is obvious that the use of self-insurance opportunities is very limited. Basically, this method is justified if the probability of a negative outcome and the amount of possible loss are not large.

When using self-insurance, you need to be aware that the cost-effectiveness of this method results in some negative aspects. First of all, this is the “death” of working capital. The company is forced to keep considerable funds in reserve; they cannot be counted on when concluding new, often interesting and effective contracts; it is impossible and dangerous to put them into circulation. However, there is still a danger that there will be a “streak of failures”: against the backdrop of low financial income, losses will occur one after another in a short period of time, and any reserve funds will still not be enough. All this causes uncertainty and nervousness among management, which will certainly be transmitted to the entire staff of the company. If loss prevention and self-insurance do not provide the desired protection against risk and only slightly reduce it, which is quite likely in modern business, one can apply the most common and widely used, already traditional method of risk management, which is insurance. The essence of this method is that the entrepreneur takes an insurance company as a partner in the transaction and assigns to it, after concluding the appropriate contract and paying insurance premiums, a significant part of the expected risks. Unlike all industries and spheres of the economy, where risk for an entrepreneur is an undesirable side effect, in the insurance business risks serve as the main field of activity. That is, the risks of the entrepreneur are assumed by the professional.

When deciding to use insurance, you need to keep in mind that, firstly, the risk must be random in nature, a negative outcome should not be pre-programmed and included in the transaction. Secondly, only losses that can be measured and assessed using natural and monetary indicators are insured. And finally, the risk itself cannot be the object of insurance. Such an object is the company’s inventory and cash assets [21, p.65].

Let us note that economic risks are an inevitable component of business activity, since they are immanent in the market. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it is quite possible to reduce possible losses. This can be achieved through the application of risk management techniques. Of course, risk management is associated with certain costs for the company, but its implementation is necessary and justified. By managing risk, a firm sacrifices less to save more. It replaces the possible occurrence of significant losses with relatively small, strictly defined costs of risk management.

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FEDERAL STATE BUDGET EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

"Tolyatti State University"

Institute of Finance, Economics and Management

Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit

Course work

in the discipline: “Comprehensive economic analysis of economic activity”

on the topic: Analysis of risks in the activities of an enterprise using the example of JSC Galantus

Performed:

Tolkacheva N.

Group EKB-0901

Scientific adviser:

O.V. Schneider

Tolyatti-2012

Introduction

1. The essence of the occurrence of risks in the activities of the enterprise

1.1 The role and economic content of risks in the financial and economic activities of an enterprise

1.2. Classification and methods of risk assessment in enterprise activities

1.3 Risk management

2. Analysis of risks in the activities of the enterprise JSC Galantus

2.1 Technical and economic characteristics of JSC Galantus

2.2 Risk assessment in the activities of JSC Galantus

3. Ways to reduce and manage risks at JSC Galantus

Conclusion

List of used literature

Application

assessment of commercial risk economic activity

Introduction

The changes that have occurred in the Russian economy in recent years have revealed a number of controversial and topical problems that are theoretical and applied in nature and are extremely important for the sustainable functioning and development of the economy. Priority problems include issues of theory, methodology and practice of making management decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.

Risk is danger! Risk is a possible future qualitative or quantitative deterioration in the condition of an object. In economic literature, they usually start from these concepts. Threats of damage are characterized by the optionality of negative impact, uncertainty of parameters and consequences such as time, strength of manifestation, and amount of damage. These uncertainties are caused by ignorance of the law, lack of information and lack of skills in managing economic risks (insufficient qualifications of management personnel).

Any business involves risks. Any successful business is associated with great risks, and the success of the enterprise depends on how businessmen, managers, and executives cope with these risks. Some people manage risks intuitively, others consciously, but any activity requires analysis and further risk management for the successful and full development of the enterprise. The most important feature of entrepreneurship is the presence of risk both at the stage of creating an organization and during its further functioning. Any enterprise is at risk of losing property, valuables, money, that is, any type of economic resources, including labor and time, because labor losses and wasted time cause serious damage to the results of business activities. The main objectives of the risk management system can be formulated: increasing financial stability, improving risk management mechanisms. The purpose of this course work is to analyze the adoption of optimal management decisions taking into account the factor of uncertainty and risk using the example of a specific organization, JSC Galantus.

This goal determined the main objectives of the study, which were as follows:

· consider the concepts of uncertainty and risk;

· consider the process of influence of uncertainty and risk on the organization’s activities;

· consider scientific methods of decision-making recommended under conditions of uncertainty and risk;

· apply in practice the development of management decisions in conditions of uncertainty and risk using the example of the organization OJSC Galantus.

The object of the study is the uncertainties and risks relating to the activities of organizations in any industry, and the subject of the study is the adoption of management decisions aimed at obtaining the least losses in conditions of uncertainty and risk.

1. The essence of the occurrence of risks in the activities of the enterprise

1.1 The role and economic content of risks in financial and economiceconomic activity of the enterprise

As is known, a condition for the effectiveness of any market activity is considered to be economic freedom, which presupposes that an economic agent (producer, consumer) has a certain set of rights that guarantee him autonomous, independent decision-making. However, economic freedom is also a source of uncertainty, since the freedom of one economic agent is simultaneously accompanied by the freedom of others.

Risks are a formalization of uncertainty, and the definition of risks is a way of measuring it. After all, despite the fact that the feeling of uncertainty is almost always unpleasant, in some cases it causes more inconvenience, in others less. Reducing uncertainty means reducing the number of risks, where everything is clear and transparent there are no and cannot be risks. But a situation of “complete uncertainty” is very rare in our world. Perhaps due to the fact that risks are closely related to uncertainty, there are many interpretations of the concept of “risk”. According to some definitions, risk is the danger of a negative event occurring; according to others, it is damage due to negative events; yet another interpretation calls risk the probability of something occurring, both negative and positive, etc. There is especially a lot of discussion surrounding the definition of risk as a necessarily negative event. After all, positive but unplanned events are usually not considered risks.

Indeed, risk is characterized by the probability of the occurrence of some event and implies, if not danger, then at least the impact of this event on business, life, project, etc. In domestic economic science, there are essentially no generally accepted theoretical provisions on business risk; in fact, methods for assessing risk in relation to certain production situations and types of business activity have not been developed; there are no recommendations on ways and means of reducing and preventing risk.

Of particular interest is a comparative examination of the classical and neoclassical theories of entrepreneurial risk and their economic applications. When studying entrepreneurial profit, such representatives of the classical theory as J. Mill, I.W. Seniors distinguished in the structure of entrepreneurial income a percentage (as a share of the invested capital), an entrepreneur’s wages and a risk fee (as compensation for the possible risk associated with entrepreneurial activity). In the classical theory of entrepreneurial risk, the latter is identified with the mathematical expectation of losses that may occur as a result of the chosen decision. The risk here is nothing more than the damage that is caused by the implementation of this decision.

This one-sided interpretation of the essence of risk caused sharp objections among some foreign economists, which led to the development of a different understanding of the content of business risk.

In the 30s of our century, economists A. Marshall and A. Pigou developed the foundations of the neoclassical theory of entrepreneurial risk. The basics of this theory are as follows: an entrepreneur working in conditions of uncertainty and whose profit is a random variable is guided by two criteria when concluding a transaction:

* the size of the expected profit;

* the magnitude of its possible fluctuations.

The behavior of an entrepreneur, according to the neoclassical theory of risk, is determined by the concept of marginal utility. This means that if there are two options, for example, capital investments that give the same expected profit, the entrepreneur chooses the option in which the fluctuations in expected profit are smaller. According to neoclassical theory, for an entrepreneur, a certain profit of the same expected size, but associated with possible fluctuations, is less interesting. The problem of risk in our country is quite mature. The formation of market relations in Russia was a prerequisite for a more in-depth development of risk theory in the domestic economic literature. Fundamental for all modern definitions of risk in Russian science is the interpretation in the famous dictionary by S.I. Ozhegova. So, risk, according to Ozhegov’s dictionary, is “the action of failure, in the hope of a happy outcome...”. More specifically, this is:

Action, activity as a condition for the emergence of risk;

Action at random, in other words, is activity without preliminary calculation, with the hope of a favorable event, or goal-setting, goal-fulfilling activity;

Activity “in the hope of a happy outcome” - we are not talking about any activity, but about one that satisfies needs; based on them, setting goals and predicting a successful result.

In fact, the definition of risk in Russian and foreign literature can be combined into the following groups. The first group includes definitions in which risk is understood as a probability that deviates from the planned results. In the second group, the emphasis is on the possibility of quantitative or qualitative risk assessment.

In the third group, the concept of “risk” is revealed through the activity of the subject: action “at random” in the hope of a happy outcome: a mode of action in an unclear, uncertain situation; choosing alternatives in a situation of uncertainty, realizing the ability to creatively use the element of uncertainty. From the above, it should be concluded that risk is, first of all, a set of events, and it has a set (discrete or continuous) of its implementation, each of which has its own probability and amount of damage. A chain of successive steps leading to the final, main event is a script. Risk situations themselves generally have such features as rarity; uniqueness; continuity; repeatability. A risk situation can have different consequences, i.e. not only losses, but also income and benefits. Therefore, the following risk functions are distinguished:

Regulatory (stimulating): has a contradictory nature and appears in two forms: constructive and destructive. Risk is aimed at obtaining results in an unconventional way. Risk plays the role of a catalyst, for example, when solving innovative, investment problems, which means that the stimulating aspect of risk operates.

The protective function is manifested in the fact that, since risk is a stable state of the economic system, social protection, legal, political and economic guarantees are needed that exclude punishment in cases of failure and stimulate justifiable risk.

Risk performs an innovative function by stimulating the search for unconventional solutions to problems facing an economic entity.

The analytical function of risk is related to the fact that the presence of risk presupposes the need to choose one of the possible decision options, and therefore the economic entity analyzes all possible alternatives in the decision-making process.

Thus, risks are a complex dynamic category and therefore need to be assessed in all activities.

1.2 Classification and methods of risk assessment in enterprise activities

The composition of risks considered in economic research is closely related to the characteristics of business activity and the environment in which it is carried out.

The scientific literature uses a number of well-defined principles that can be used as a basis for classifying risks and accordingly used in developing strategies to protect against them.

Various methods and tools are used in risk management, so a scientifically based classification is needed that will systematize risks and identify specific areas for their reduction or optimization.

Risk classification refers to the distribution of risks into specific groups in accordance with certain general characteristics and to achieve set goals. A scientifically based risk classification helps to clearly define the place of each risk in the system and creates potential opportunities for the effective use of appropriate methods and risk management techniques.

In the economic literature studying risks and related problems, there is no single coherent system for their classification. In different classifications, risks are detailed in different ways, divided into groups, etc. We can safely say that there are even more classifications of risks than definitions of risks. In a number of works by domestic authors, such as V. Abchuk, A. Algin, G. Kleiner, V. Severuk, B. Raizberg, V. Rotar, I. Shumperi, etc., there are radically different approaches to risk classification. Some distinguish two types of risks: the risk associated with possible technical failure of production, and the risk caused by commercial success. Yu. Osipov considers three types of business risk: inflationary, financial and operational.

The most important features underlying risk classification are the following:

Time of occurrence;

Main factors of occurrence;

Nature of accounting and consequences;

Sphere of origin.

In the work of I.T. Balabanwa “Risk Management” proposes a hierarchical system for classifying economic risks, schematically presented in Figure 1.1, the structure of which includes groups, categories, types, subtypes and varieties of risks. In accordance with the presented hierarchy, depending on the possible result, risks are pure and speculative... and if pure risks lead to the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result, then speculative risks are expressed by the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results.

Rice. 1.1 Hierarchical risk classification system

As for foreign practice, the famous economist John Keynes was one of the first to propose a classification of risks; he considered three categories of risks and, most likely, did this as part of a global study of the general theory of employment, interest and money:

· Entrepreneurial risk - the risk of not receiving the expected income from an investment;

· “Lender” risk - the risk of non-repayment of a loan, including legal (evasion of loan repayment) and credit risk (insufficient collateral);

· Risk of changes in the value of a monetary unit - the probability of losing funds as a result of changes in the exchange rate of the national currency.

Credit and legal risk are present in all classifications.

Let's consider the main types of risks according to various classification criteria.

Commercial risk is associated with the danger of losses in the process of financial and economic activity. Based on their structural characteristics, commercial risks are divided into:

A) on property risks associated with the likelihood of loss of property of a citizen or entrepreneur due to collapse, sabotage, negligence, overstrain of technical and technological load on equipment;

B) production risks associated with losses from stopping the enterprise as a result of the influence of various factors, and above all with damage or disposal of fixed and working capital;

C) trade risks associated with losses due to delays in payments for goods and services, non-delivery of goods, refusal of payments during the transportation of goods, etc.;

D) financial risks associated with the purchasing power of money, investment of capital, and the likelihood of loss of financial resources.

Financial risks include:

· Inflation risk is an increase in the price level as a result of the overfilling of monetary circulation channels with excess money supply in excess of the needs of trade turnover, as a result of which monetary incomes depreciate in terms of purchasing power faster than they grow;

· Deflationary risk is the risk that with an increase in the purchasing power of money, a fall in the price level occurs, a deterioration in the economic conditions of business and a decrease in income;

· Currency risk - a risk caused by the danger of losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of foreign currencies in relation to the national currency during foreign trade, credit, and foreign exchange transactions on stock and commodity exchanges. Currency risk includes operational risks (the risk of loss of profit caused by unfavorable changes in the exchange rate) and translational risks (associated with changes in the price of assets and liabilities in foreign currency caused by fluctuations in exchange rates.)

· Liquidity risk - associated with the possibility of losses when selling securities or other goods due to changes in quality assessment;

· Investment risk - associated with lost profits, as well as a decrease in profitability, and the danger of non-payment of debt.

The risk of a decrease in profitability is a type of investment risk that may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, deposits and loans. It includes the following types of risks:

· interest rate risk - the danger of losses by commercial banks, credit institutions, investment institutions, companies as a result of the excess of the interest rates they pay on borrowed funds over the rate on loans provided.

· price risk - the risk of changes in the price of a debt obligation due to a rise or fall in interest rates;

· credit risk - the risk associated with the risk of non-payment by the borrower of the principal debt and interest due to the lender. Credit risk is associated with property risk - this is the risk in a credit transaction associated with the condition or quality of the lender's property.

The risk of direct financial losses includes:

stock exchange risk;

· selective risk;

· risk of bankruptcy.

However, there are other types of risks.

Contagion risk - the risk that the problems of subsidiaries and associated companies will spread to the parent company, and vice versa.

Uninsurable risks are risks the probability of which is difficult to calculate even in the most general form and which are considered too great for insurance.

As well as tax risk, organizational, innovation, industry, external and internal, regional risks.

Given the variety of risks, assessing the damage to an object from an adverse event is the most difficult problem, since in practice it is usually not possible to obtain unambiguous and universally accepted values. Moreover, risk theory, as a rule, deals with expected damage given the assumed known force, nature of the event and the degree of protection of the object. From this remark, an important conclusion for the theory and practice of risk analysis follows: “absolutely objective and unambiguous assessments of damage cannot be obtained in the vast majority of situations.” Often, damage indicators used outside the framework of economic and legal relations of risk analysis in a particular area of activity can be considered economically meaningless.

Usually, when developing a method for calculating damage that is expected to be widely used in practice, they try to take into account a certain set of minimum requirements. These include:

1. simplicity in terms of application.

2. Focus on the minimum amount of initial information.

3. Taking into account the features of the object.

4. Taking into account as many losses as possible without significantly complicating the calculations.

5. Taking into account the patterns of changes in the nature and extent of damage over time, taking into account the changing force of impact

6. Compliance of damage assessments with economic and legal relations existing in the state and regions and a number of others.

In order to bring together the positions of different subjects, they usually try to structure its overall value by dividing it into relatively independent elements, for each of which assessment methods adequate to their content can be used. For example, it is advisable to divide damage by recipients (objects of impact): by regions, enterprises, buildings, structures, equipment. The total amount of damage in such a situation can be obtained by summing up the damage of individual independent groups of recipients, which in turn can be divided according to the location and time of occurrence of events, direct and indirect.

Direct damage usually refers to losses directly caused by the occurrence of events. Examples of them are losses of material assets during an earthquake, a decrease in the value of shares due to the crisis, and loss of capital due to the default of borrowers.

Indirect damage characterizes losses caused by unfavorable changes in the external and internal environment.

In general, the entire set of methods for assessing economic damage to an object can be divided into three main groups: the direct counting method (reflects all the elements in the chain of cause-and-effect relationships. It is assumed that the effects that arise between all the information in this chain and the calculation of the various components of loss items for the object are assessed) ; methods of indirect assessment (based on some assumptions regarding the patterns of damage formation.); combined methods (various combinations, combinations of methods that complement each other in solving individual problems of assessing damage from risk).

1.3 Management of risks

1. Obtaining comprehensive information about the upcoming choice and result.

2. Risk avoidance.

3. Diversification.

4. Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses.

5. Limitation.

6. Hedging.

7. Risk insurance, self-insurance.

8. Checking business partners and terms of the transaction. Business planning.

9. Recruitment of personnel for a business organization.

10. Transfer of risk.

11. Other methods.

2. Analysis of risks in the activities of the enterprise JSC Galantus

2.1 Technical and economic characteristics of JSC Galantus

JSC "Galantus" dates back to January 7, 1979, when the state farm "Ornamental Crops" began its activities on the basis of "Zelenstroy". The main industrial crops were roses, carnations, seedlings for landscaping, and potted crops. The bulk of the protected ground area was made up of glass greenhouses with a total area of about 3000 square meters. m.

The main reconstruction of the farm began in 1988 and was associated with the construction of new greenhouses that meet modern floriculture standards, with an area of more than 31,000 square meters. m., the construction of a new powerful boiler house and a complete change in the technology of growing flower crops. The introduction of modern technology from leading companies in the world has made it possible to make a huge qualitative and quantitative leap in increasing production. Over the past ten years alone, gross income from flower production has increased more than 10 times, profit - 8 times, average monthly wage - 5 times.

On August 28, 1994, the state farm was reorganized into the joint-stock company "Galantus". Translated into Russian, “galanthus” means “snowdrop”.

Today, the company’s activities are well known to flower growers in Russia and abroad. JSC "Galantus" is a farm that meets world standards of floriculture, using modern technology and equipment. The total area of protected soil is 4.2 hectares. More than 5 million cut flowers are grown annually in this area.

A professional florist today is interested in new crops and varieties that are highly rated in Europe, adapted to Russian conditions and provide good business in the flower market.

Accounting at JSC "Galantus" is carried out in accordance with the standard chart of accounts for accounting of financial and economic activities of enterprises; standard forms of financial statements and instructions for their use and completion; other legal acts regulating the accounting of transactions. When carrying out activities, the forms of documents determined by the albums of unified forms of primary accounting documentation developed by the republican governing bodies are used. Documents whose forms are not provided in these albums contain mandatory details in accordance with current legislation. The features of accounting at JSC Galantus are summarized in the Order on Accounting Policy, which is annually approved by the General Director of JSC Galantus. The accounting policy determines the organization of document flow, the procedure for processing information (using accounting registers), the procedure for conducting inventory, etc. The balance sheet of the enterprise is presented in Appendix 1. Open joint-stock company "Galantus", according to current legislation, is recognized as a limited liability company, which operates on the basis Charter and legislation of the Russian Federation.

Table 2.1 Main economic indicators of JSC Galantus

Indicators			Change (+,-)	Growth rate, %

1. Sales revenue, thousand rubles.
2. Cost of goods sold, thousand rubles.
3. Administrative and commercial expenses, thousand rubles.
4. Profit from sale, thousand rubles.

5. Profit up to taxation, thousand rubles
6. Net profit, thousand rubles.
7. Cost fixed assets, thousand rubles			- -115491,90* -136273147 ¦
8. Value of assets, thousand rubles.
9. Own capital, thousand rubles.
10. Borrowed capital, thousand rubles.
11. Number of teaching staff, people.
12.Labor productivity, thousand rubles. (1/11)
13. Capital productivity, rub. (1/7)
14. Asset turnover, times (1/8)
15. Return on equity on net profit, % (6/9)*100%
16. Sales profitability, % (4/1)*100%
17. Return on equity on profit before tax, % (5/(9+10))*100%	43947/(336039+64841)=43947/400880=10,9%	52049/(363590+134467)=52049/498057=10,5%
18. Costs per ruble of sales proceeds, ((2 + 3)/1)*100 kop.

Having analyzed the obtained indicators, we can draw conclusions and build diagrams based on the most significant indicators.

In diagram 2.1 we can clearly see the difference in sales revenue for 2010 and 2011. Sales revenue is a regular source of income for the organization from all possible receipts of funds, serves as the main evaluative indicator of the enterprise's performance; by its receipt one can judge that the products sold in terms of volume, quality and do not correspond to market demand, since during the period under review it decreased sharply.

Diagram 2.1. Sales proceeds

Having examined the following indicator - the cost of goods sold (Diagram 2.2), we see that sales revenue at JSC Galantus fell not due to quality or lack of demand, but due to a sharp reduction in production capacity and the volume of goods produced.

Diagram 2.2. Cost of goods sold

When considering the profit from sales indicator (Diagram 2.3), one can notice a significant increase in this indicator in 2011.

Diagram 2.3. Profit from sale

Also, according to the balance sheet data, one can notice that in 2011 the company OJSC Galantus significantly increased the amount of borrowed funds compared to the previous year. (Diagram 2.4)

Diagram 2.4 Borrowed capital

The company OJSC "Galantus" reduced sales volume and reduced production costs by purchasing cheap quality resources, thereby increasing the profit from sales, and the company also took out a large loan, we can conclude that the company is going to invest all its funds in some profitable project (any changes in the production structure) expand your production, or change the specification

2.2 Risk assessment in the activities of JSC Galantus

The main objective of the methodology for determining the degree of risk is to systematize and develop an integrated approach to determining the degree of risk affecting the financial and economic activities of the enterprise.

The financial statements of the enterprise are used as initial information when assessing financial risks: a balance sheet that records the property and financial position of the organization as of the reporting date; An income statement presenting the results of operations for an accounting period.

The central place in assessing business risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources when carrying out business activities.

Quantitative risk assessments, in this work we will consider an investment project, are associated with the numerical determination of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole. The task of quantitative analysis is to numerically measure the degree of influence of changes in risk factors of the project, tested for risk, on the behavior of the project performance criteria.

The company OJSC Galantus has been conducting investment activities for many years. And for 2013, the company has two investment options. It has been established that when investing capital in enterprise A, receiving a profit in the amount of 250 thousand rubles has a probability of 0.6, and in event B - receiving a profit in the amount of 300 thousand rubles. - probability 0.4. then the expected profit from investing capital (mathematical expectation) will be 6

For event A - 150 thousand rubles (250 * 0.6);

For event B - 120 thousand rubles (300 * 0.4);

The probability of an event occurring can be determined by an objective or subjective method. Using an objective method, we will obtain a determination of probability based on a calculation of the frequency with which a given event occurs. Investment of capital in event A profit in the amount of 250 thousand rubles. was obtained in 120 cases out of 200, the probability of such a profit will be about.6 (120:200).

An important place in this regard is occupied by expert assessment, i.e. conducting an examination, processing and using its results in justifying the value of probability. Here the degree of risk is measured according to two criteria:

The average expected value (MEV) is the value of the magnitude of the event. Is a weighted average of all possible outcomes;

Fluctuations in possible results.

Thanks to the data provided by the statistical department, we know that when investing capital in event A, out of 120 cases, the profit is 250 thousand rubles. was obtained in 48 cases (probability 0.4), a profit of 200 thousand. rub. was received in 36 cases (probability 0.3) and a profit of 300 thousand rubles. was obtained in 36 cases (probability 0.3), then:

POP = (250*0.4+200*0.3+300*0.3) = 250 thousand. rub.

Similarly, it was found that when investing in activity B, the average profit was:

POP = (400*0.3+300*0.5+150*0.2) = 300 thousand rubles.

Comparing two amounts of expected profit when investing capital in event A and B, we can conclude that when investing in event A, the amount of profit received ranges from 200 to 300 thousand rubles. and the average value is 250 thousand rubles; when investing capital in event B, the amount of profit received ranges from 150 to 400 and the average value is 300 thousand rubles. But we know that the average value is a generalized quantitative characteristic and will not allow us to make a decision in favor of any result. To make a final decision, it is necessary to measure the variability of indicators (KP), i.e. determine the degree of variability of a possible result.

To do this, we use two closely related values:

· Dispersion (formula 2.1) is the weighted average of the squared deviations of actual results from the average expected ones.

formula 2.1

where is the dispersion;

X- expected value for each observation case;

Average expected value;

n is the number of observation cases (frequency).

The calculation of variances for activities A and B is presented in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1. Calculations of variances when investing capital in activities A and B

Event no.	Profit received, thousand rubles.	Number of cases observed	(- )
Event A



Total =
Event B



Total =

The coefficient of variation (V) is usually used for analysis. It represents the ratio of the standard deviation to the arithmetic mean and shows the degree of deviation of the obtained values. CV can vary from 0 to 100%. The higher the CV, the stronger the oscillation. The following qualitative assessment of various EFs has been established:

Lo 10% - weak fluctuation;

10-25: - moderate;

Over 25% - high.

Let's calculate the standard deviation when investing capital in activity A. It will be:

180000/120 = 38,7;

For event B:

750000/100= 86,6;

Let's calculate the coefficient of variation for activity A:

V = 38.7/250*100=15.5%;

Coefficient of variation for activity B:

V=86.6/300*100=29.8%

According to the calculation data, we can see that the coefficient of variation when investing capital in event A is less than when investing in event B, which allows us to conclude that a decision has been made in favor of investing capital in event A.

3. Ways to reduce and manage risks at JSC Galantus

Having examined the main technical and economic indicators of Galantus OJSC, we found that revenue from the sale of products in 2011 compared to 2010 decreased by 93% as a result of rising product prices; despite the fact that the cost of products sold decreased by 87.7%, this growth does not have a significant impact on net profit, but in general, such indicators are a negative trend in the work of the enterprise.

The value of current assets in 2010 increased by 124%, which is associated with taking out a loan of 72,000 rubles.

In 2011, an increase in current assets by 124% was due to an almost sixfold increase in accounts receivable.

The amount of equity in 2011 increased by 108% respectively as a result of an increase in retained earnings.

The decrease in borrowed capital in 2010 is associated with a decrease in short-term loans and borrowings and the share of accounts payable, and the increase in 2011 is due to an increase in short-term loans and borrowings by 207%.

Having analyzed the absolute indicators of financial stability, we conclude that in 2009 and 2010 the enterprise belonged to the fourth type of financial stability, i.e. it was in a financial crisis, in which it was threatened with bankruptcy, and in 2011 the company was in an unstable financial position, which is characterized by insolvency, but it already belonged to the third type of financial stability.

After analyzing the solvency, it was revealed that the company does not have absolute liquidity, this indicates that the solvency of the organization is at a low level. After an analysis of the financial condition and risks, it was revealed that Galantus OJSC has a high risk of bankruptcy, since it is in an unstable financial position.

Therefore, the measures we have discussed for investing assets can improve your financial condition.

Financial stabilization at an enterprise in a crisis situation is consistently carried out in two stages:

1) elimination of insolvency;

2) restoration of financial stability.

The essence of restoring solvency is to maneuver cash flows to restore the balance between their expenditure and receipt.

The essence of restoring financial stability is the fastest and most radical reduction in ineffective expenses. Stopping unprofitable production is the first step that needs to be taken. If unprofitable production is not practical or cannot be sold, it must be stopped to immediately prevent further losses.

Conclusion

Man constantly faces risk. Often, without complete information, we have to make a choice, which, unfortunately, is not always the right one. Any entrepreneur always acts at his own peril and risk; the further activities of the organization will depend on this person, on his foresight and knowledge. One of its main tasks is to assess risk and reduce it to a minimum in order to obtain maximum profit in the event of a successful transaction and incur minimal losses in the event of an unsuccessful transaction. By incorrectly determining the influence of certain factors, a manager can lead the company to collapse. Therefore, the importance of such qualities as experience, qualifications, and, of course, intuition increases sharply. A constant analysis of the existing situation is necessary; it is very important to use the experience of other organizations (the opportunity to learn from other people’s mistakes).

At the same time, all approaches are characterized by a single goal: it is necessary to assess the levels of risks inherent in certain types of activities and develop effective measures that can reduce these levels to acceptable values. The similarity of goals in this case predetermines a unified methodology for solving these problems - the methodology of risk analysis.

Risk management, in general, should be considered as one of the activities aimed at increasing the sustainability and safety of an object, the efficiency of its functioning and development.

The main difficulty of risk management is that there are no “ready-made” recipes. Each issue that needs to be addressed in an enterprise requires its own unique approach.

Bibliography

1.The Constitution of the Russian Federation of December 12, 1993. Official publication of M.; 2012

2. Tax Code of the Russian Federation dated July 19, 2000. Official publication M.: M 2012.

3.Civil Code of the Russian Federation dated December 18, 2006 N 230-FZ

4.Federal Law No. 14 of 02/08/1998 “On Limited Liability Companies

5. Balabanov I.T. Risk management. -M.: Finance and Statistics. 2006.

6.Blank I.A. Financial risk management: Textbook. well. - K.: Nika-Center, 2006.

7. Brolio E. System for assessing the risks of innovative activity of an organization / E. Brolio. Problems of management theory and practice, 2008. No. 4

8. Vasin S.M. Risk management in an enterprise: a textbook - M.: KNORUS, 2012

9. Vishnyakov Ya.D. General theory of risks. M.: "Academy", 2007

10. Granaturov V. M. Economic risk. Essence, measurement methods, ways to reduce. - 2011

11. Delyagin M. How to overcome the crisis yourself. The science of saving, the science of taking risks. Simple tips. - 2009

12. Kudryavtsev A. A.. Integrated risk management - 2010

13. Lapchenko D.A. Assessment and management of economic risk: theory and practice. Minsk: Amalfeya, 2007.

14.Lobanova A.A. Encyclopedia of financial risk management. M.: Alpina, 2005.

15. Nikonov V. Risk management: How to earn more and spend less. - M.: Alpina Publishers, 2009

16. Polovinkin L., Zozulyuk A. Entrepreneurial risks and their management // Russian Economic Journal. - 2004. - No. 9.

17.Making financial decisions: theory and practice / ed. A.O. Levkovich. - Minsk: Grevtsov Publishing House, 2007.

18. Serebryakova T. Yu.. Risks of the organization and internal economic control. - 2011

19. Tikhomirov N.P. Risk analysis in economics. - M.: JSC "Economy", 2010

20. Uspensky V.A. risk management methods / Nota Bene - Economic online journal - Articles Archive

21. Fomichev A.N. “Risk Management” M.: Dashkov i K 2004.

22. Tsvetkova E. V., I. O. Arlyukova. Risks in economic activity. Training manual.- 2005

23. Chetyrkin E.M. Financial mathematics: Textbook. - 6th ed., rev. - M.: Delo, 2006.

24. Shapkin A. S., Shapkin V. A. Economic and financial risks. Valuation, management, investment portfolio - 2010.

25. Shvandar V.A. Risks in the economy: Textbook. manual for universities / Ed. prof. V.A. Shvandara. - M.: UNITY-DANA, 2007

Annex 1

Appendix 2

Table 1.2. Ways to minimize risks

Type of risk	Ways to reduce risk
Commercial risk	Correctly determine and maintain the ratios of financial indicators; increase the ROI of your business
Financial risk	Timely place passive funds in profit-generating projects or provide loans
Manager errors	Introduce control and duplication at the key links of the business
Squeak of the wrong selected project	Carefully check all the pros and cons, if necessary, use computer modeling to accurately calculate all options
Economic fluctuations and changes in demand	Fluctuations and changes in demand must be predicted and used in business plans
Risk of suboptimal resource allocation	Clearly define priorities in resource allocation depending on the planned number of products produced
Actions of competitors	Possible actions of competitors must be anticipated based on a systematic analysis of their activities
Employee dissatisfaction	Carefully consider social and economic programs for employees, taking into account their requirements and requests. Create a favorable environment in the team
Low volumes of goods sales	Conduct thorough analytical work to select target markets
Risk of information leakage	Careful screening and selection of employees, especially scientific and technical personnel

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Risk management as a key tool aimed at improving business efficiency

Risk management is one of the key tools aimed at improving the effectiveness of business management programs, which they can use to reduce product life cycle costs and mitigate or avoid potential problems that could interfere with the success of the business.

Achieving the goals of an enterprise requires specific ideas about the main type of activity, production technologies, as well as the study of the main types of risks. Preventing risks and reducing losses from exposure leads to sustainable development of the enterprise. The process by which the activities of an enterprise are directed and coordinated from the point of view of the effectiveness of risk management and represents risk management. Risk management is the process of identifying the losses that an organization faces in its core activities and the extent of their impact, and selecting the most appropriate method to manage each individual risk.

In another view, risk management is a systematic process in which risks are assessed and analyzed to reduce or eliminate their consequences, as well as to achieve goals.

Based on the above, we can come to the conclusion that risk management to ensure the viability and efficiency of the enterprise is a cyclical and continuous process that coordinates and directs the main activities. This should be done through the identification, control and mitigation of all types of risks, including monitoring, communication and consultation aimed at meeting the needs of the population, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Risk assessment leads to the stability of the enterprise’s activities, contributing to its sustainable development. Risk management - a contribution to sustainable development, is an essential factor in maintaining and increasing the stable activity of the enterprise. Active risk management is critical to the management process to ensure that risks are being handled at the appropriate level.

Planning and implementing risk management includes the following steps:

Management of risks;
identification of risks and the degree of their impact on business processes;
application of qualitative and quantitative risk analysis;
development and execution of risk response plans and their implementation;
monitoring risks and management processes;
the relationship between risk management and performance;
assessment of the overall risk management process.

Methodology (program) for continuous risk management

In order to facilitate risk management activities, the enterprise needs to develop a methodology (program) for continuous risk management (CRM). MNUR is a theoretically significant program aimed at developing project management mechanisms with best practice processes, methods and tools for enterprise risk management. It provides the conditions for active decision-making, continuous assessment of risks, determination of the degree of significance and level of influence of risks on management decisions, and the implementation of strategies to combat them. In addition, progress can also be made in the scope of the project, the enterprise budget, the timing of its implementation, etc. Figure 1 clearly illustrates the methodology for the continuous risk management process.

Rice. 1. Continuous risk management process

The performance management process acts as an auxiliary tool for obtaining information necessary for the developed risk management mechanism. Unfavorable trends should be analyzed and their impact on this mechanism assessed. Appropriate actions of the control mechanism must be taken for those areas of activity that are defined as basic in the business processes of the enterprise. Corrective actions may include reallocating resources (facilities, personnel, and rescheduling) or activating a planned mitigation strategy. Severe cases, adverse trends and key indicators can also be taken into account when using this mechanism.

It is important that this mechanism emphasizes the need to reassess identified risks that systematically affect the activities of the enterprise. As the system moves through the development life cycle, most of the information will be available for risk assessment. If the magnitude of the risk changes significantly, approaches to its treatment must be adjusted.

Overall, this progressive approach to risk management is critical to a comprehensive management process and ensures that risk indicators are processed effectively and at the appropriate level.

Development of a risk management program at the enterprise

Let's consider the risk management policy that should be applied at the enterprise. The developed mechanism (program) should be aimed at effective and continuous risk management. Thus, early, accurate and continuous identification and assessment of risks is encouraged, and the creation of informationally transparent risk reporting, planning measures to reduce and prevent changes in external and internal conditions will have a positive impact on the program.

This mechanism, including relationships with counterparties and contractors, should perform the functions of identifying risks and monitoring them. To implement it, it is necessary to have some kind of plan in the form of a set of guidance documents developed for specific areas of activity. This plan sets guidelines for the implementation of MNSD within a specific time frame. It does not affect the conduct of other activities of the entire enterprise, but rather can provide leadership in the area of risk management.

The risk management process must meet a number of requirements: it must be flexible, proactive, and must work towards providing conditions for effective decision-making. Risk management will influence risks by:

encouraging risk identification;
decriminalization;
identifying active risks (continuously assessing what could go wrong);
identifying opportunities (by constantly assessing the likelihood of favorable or timely occurrences);
assessing the likelihood of occurrence and severity of impact of each identified risk;
determining appropriate courses of action to reduce the possible significant impact of risks on the enterprise;
developing action plans or steps to neutralize the impact of any risk that requires mitigation;
maintaining ongoing monitoring for emerging risks with a current low impact that may change over time;
production and dissemination of reliable and timely information;
promoting communication between all program stakeholders.

The risk management process will be carried out on a flexible basis, taking into account the circumstances of each risk. A core risk management strategy is designed to identify critical areas of risk events, both technical and non-technical, and proactively take the necessary actions to deal with them before they have a significant impact on the enterprise, causing significant costs, reducing product quality or productivity.

Let us consider in more detail the functional elements that are components of the risk management process: identification (detection), analysis, planning and response, as well as monitoring and management. We will consider each functional element below.

Identification

Data review (i.e. earned value, critical path analysis, integrated scheduling, Monte Carlo analysis, budgeting, defect and trend analysis, etc.);
Review of submitted risk identification forms;
Conducting and assessing risk using brainstorming, individual or group expert assessment
Conducting an independent assessment of identified risks
Enter the risk in the risk register

Risk identification/analysis tools and techniques to be used include:

Interview techniques to determine risk
Fault tree analysis
Historical data
Lessons Learned
Risk Management - Checklist
Individual or group judgment of experts
Detailed analysis of the work breakdown structure, study of resources and scheduling

Analysis

Carrying out a probability assessment - each risk will be assigned a high, medium or low level of probability of occurrence
Create risk categories – identified risks must be associated with one or more of the following risk categories (e.g. cost, schedule, technical, software, process, etc.)
Assess the impact of risks - assess the impact of each risk depending on the identified risk categories
Determining risk severity - assign probabilities and impacts to the rating in each risk category
Determine the timing when the risk event is likely to occur

Planning and response

Risk priorities
Risk analysis
Appoint a person responsible for the risk
Determine an appropriate risk management strategy
Develop an appropriate risk response plan
Provide an overview of priorities and determine its level in reporting

Surveillance and control

Define reporting formats
Determine review form and frequency of occurrence for all risk classes
Risk report based on triggers and categories
Conducting a risk assessment
Submission of monthly risk reports

For effective risk management at an enterprise, we consider it advisable to create a risk management department. The main responsibilities of this structural unit, including for staff and other users (including employees, consultants and contractors), in order to successfully implement the risk management strategy and processes are shown in Table. 1.

Table 1 - Risk Management Department Roles and Responsibilities

Roles	Assigned Responsibilities
Program Director (DP)	supervision of risks of management activities. Monitoring risks and risk response plans. Approval of the decision to finance risk response plans. Monitoring of management decisions.
Project Manager	providing assistance in risk control of management activities Assist in establishing organizational authority for all risk management activities. Timely response to financing risks.
Employee	facilitating the implementation of risk management (the employee is not responsible for the identification of risks, or the success of individual risk response plans). The need to encourage proactive decision-making in determining appropriate risk responses for risk “owners” and department managers. Administer and maintain stakeholder commitment, risk management process Ensuring regular coordination and exchange of risk information between all stakeholders, Management of risks located in a registered risk register (database). Development of knowledge of staff and contractors in the field of risk management activities.
Secretary	The functions of the secretary are performed by an employee of the risk department or they alternate between all employees. Features include: Planning and coordination of meetings; Preparation of meeting agendas, risk assessment packages, and meeting minutes. Receive and track the status of proposed risk types. Perform an initial assessment of proposed risks to determine which ones are most important. Expert in the subject area of risk analysis at the request of the Chairman of the Board of Directors. Facilitate analysis by Board members who will decide whether risk mitigation is necessary. Regular coordination and communication of risk information exchange with all stakeholders,
Department Director (DO)	appointment of risk owners in their area of responsibility and/or competence. Active employee encouragement Monitoring the integration of risk management efforts of decision makers in their areas of responsibility. Selecting and approving a risk response strategy. This includes approving resources (eg owner risk) for further risk analysis and/or drawing up a more detailed risk response plan if necessary. Approval of all tasks. Assign resources to the risk management response contained in the detailed plan.
Individual Member of the Office of Management Program (IMP)	identification of risks. Access to risk management data Identification of possible risks from data using a standard form of identification if necessary Drawing up and implementing a risk response plan Determining the time and all costs associated with implementing the risk response plan
Risk Owner/Responsible Person	attending meetings of the risk management department. Review and/or provide relevant data, such as critical path analysis, project/data management support tools, defect analysis, auditing, and adverse trend opportunities Participation in the development of response plans Risk status report and effectiveness of risk response plans Work to determine the means to address risk by any additional or residual risk.
Integrated Brigade (KB)	identification and provision of information about risks that may arise as a result of the CB’s activities. Participate in any risk planning under this program. Such planning requires coordination with the risk management department, which, acting as management, can facilitate the acquisition of resources to respond to risks. Report on the progress and results of the risk response.
Quality control	monitoring and reviewing the RCM when updating or changing the plan Responsibility to maintain quality documentation practices and risk management processes

Risk management functions include organizing interaction with existing divisions of the organizational structure. CPIs are formed for functional areas that are critical for the successful implementation of assigned tasks. All functional departments or business processes not covered by the design bureau are assessed and reviewed by the DP, PM, and employees to ensure adequate behavior with respect to the occurrence of risk. Risk identification is the process of determining which events may affect a business's operations and documenting their characteristics. It is important to note that risk identification is an iterative process. The first iteration is a preliminary assessment and review of the team's risks, with a risk ID as necessary. The second iteration includes presentation, review and discussion. The risk management process includes three distinct stages of risk characterization: identification, assessment and adjustment, and confirmation.

A graphical representation of the risk identification process is presented in Fig. 2.

Rice. 2. Block diagram of the risk identification algorithm

As a result of its implementation, a set of measures can be developed to assess the operational risks of an enterprise, integral risk, the quantitative assessment of which is based on a comprehensive analysis of financial and accounting statements, and an assessment of integral risk based on all levels of responsibility of the enterprise.

Conclusion

Risk management at chemical enterprises must be carried out within the framework of a systemic and process approach, taking into account the specifics of the industry, using modern effective management methods and production organizations, as well as using risk management tools. The risk management system for the activities of a chemical enterprise must necessarily take into account the safety requirements established by government authorities and ensure the safety and health of personnel associated with a hazardous technological facility. For the purpose of effective risk management of an enterprise, an integrated risk management system is required, which consists of an integrated approach to assessing the maximum number of risk factors for the enterprise’s activities carried out in a dynamic economic environment. The author believes that the development of the above-described set of measures will accompany an increase in the level of management and risk assessment in industrial organizations.

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Introduction

Chapter 1. Risk management methods

1.1 Concept, classification of risks in an enterprise

1.3 Enterprise risk assessment

Chapter 2. Risk management using the example of Olis-dent LLC

2.1 Brief description of the enterprise Olis-dent LLC

2.2 Financial analysis using the example of Olis-dent LLC
2.3 Insurance as a method of risk management at the enterprise Olis-dent LLC
2.4 Selecting an insurance company and calculating insurance costs
2.5 Assessing the effectiveness of insurance at Olis-dent LLC

3. Main directions of risk reduction in Olis-dent LLC

3.1 Methods and techniques for reducing financial risks

3.2 Determining the prospects of investment and innovation projects in Olis-dent LLC to reduce financial risks

Conclusion
Literature
Applications

Introduction

In any business activity there is always a danger of monetary losses arising from the specifics of certain business transactions. The danger of such losses is financial risks. Therefore, knowledge of the essence of risks and options for managing their reduction determines the relevance of the topic.

Financial managers naturally want to incorporate risk into their work. In this case, different types of behavior are possible, and therefore different types of managers. But the key idea that guides the manager is that the required return and risk should change in the same direction (in proportion to each other). The risk is probable, therefore, its quantitative measurement cannot be unambiguous and predetermined. Depending on which risk calculation method is used, its value may vary.

When evaluating alternative decision options, the manager has to predict possible outcomes. In this case, the decision is made in conditions where the manager can fairly accurately assess the results of each of the alternative decision options. An example would be investments in certificates of deposit and government bonds, when there is a government guarantee and it is known for sure that the interest specified in the terms will be received on the invested funds.

The theory of financial risk management is quite well developed by both domestic and foreign researchers. Publications by such authors as Balabanov I.T., Glushchenko V.V., Limitovsky M.A., Raizberg B.A., Redhead K., Hughes S., Chaly-Prilutsky V.A. are devoted to this topic. .

The authors of the studies introduced a wide range of sources into scientific circulation, collected and analyzed a large volume of factual material, they generalized the experience of assessing financial risks, and studied various options for reducing them.

The object of research in the work is the limited liability company Olis-dent LLC, the main activities of which are the development, production and sale of dental equipment.

The subject of the study is the features and patterns of financial risk management.

The relevance of the study determined the purpose and objectives of the work:

The purpose of the work is to consider the theoretical and practical aspects of financial risk management.

Based on the goal, the following tasks are set in the work:

1. Characterize the essence of risks and give their classification.

2. Identify risk management methods.

3. Study risk assessment at the enterprise.

4. Conduct a financial analysis of Olis-dent LLC.

5. Consider insurance as a method of risk management in Olis-dent LLC, select an insurance company and evaluate the effectiveness of insurance.

6. Study other methods of risk reduction and develop measures to reduce risk at Olis-dent LLC.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the work was the work of classics of economic science, statistics, and management theory.

The thesis work used materials from economic and statistical literature, thematic materials from periodicals. To solve the problems, various mathematical and statistical methods, as well as methods of control theory, were used in the work.

To address the topic at hand, the following structure has been determined: the work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and appendices. The title of the chapters reflects their content.

Chapter 1. Risk management methods

1.1 Concept, classification of risks in an enterprise

Risk and income in financial management are considered as two interrelated categories. Any enterprise can be considered as a collection of certain assets in a certain combination. Ownership of any of these assets is associated with a certain risk in terms of the impact of this asset on the overall income of the enterprise.

Analysis and modeling of operations and systems shows that the main properties of any system and operation are the target effect (income), costs (time and resources), risk (danger or safety).

The origin of the term “risk” goes back to the Greek words ridsikon, ridsa - cliff, rock. The word “risk” came into English literature in the middle of the 18th century. from France as the word "risque" (risky, doubtful).

Webster's Dictionary defines "risk" as "the danger, possibility of loss or damage." In Ozhegov’s dictionary, “risk” is defined as “the possibility of danger” or as “an action at random in the hope of a happy outcome.”

It cannot be said that the problem of risk is new. In the 20s In the twentieth century, a number of legislative acts were adopted in Russia containing the concept of production and economic risk. At the same time, there were sound thoughts that the pace of economic development and approaches to risk management are dependent on each other.

Attention to the problem of risk in the studies of Soviet economists was limited due to the fact that the centralized economy assumed compensation for losses arising in some sectors of the planned economy at the expense of other sectors, which usually included industries involved in the production and export of oil and gas. And yet, back in the 30s. Chairman of the State Planning Committee V.V. Kuibyshev noted the need to take risk into account when making decisions in a socialist economy.

On the other hand, in practice, as noted by the Soviet academician A.S. Grinberg, there was an “asymmetry of economic risk,” by which he meant that it is possible to lose greatly by introducing scientific and technological achievements into production, but it is almost impossible to win big. If an enterprise achieves great results, they are artificially taken away from it in favor of the state. On the other hand, failure to comply with the state plan by 1-2% leads to penalties. This situation formed a negative attitude towards risk among Soviet enterprise managers, which limited the development of scientific research in the field of economic risk.

In domestic economic science, risk was completely related to the phenomena of the capitalist economy. Ignoring the problems of risk reached such an extent that the very concept of “risk” was not even included in the encyclopedia “Political Economy”.

The dictionary - reference book for entrepreneurs outlines the concept of “entrepreneur risk” as the possibility of failures and losses in business activities, which, if carelessly or illiterately approach the matter, can lead to undesirable consequences and damage.

Balabanov I.T. Risk means the possible danger of losses arising from the specifics of certain natural phenomena and activities of human society. Raizberg B.A. considers risk as the threat that an economic entity will incur losses in the form of additional expenses in excess of those provided for in the forecast, program of its actions, or will receive income below those for which it expected. Grabovsky P.G. Risk means the likelihood (threat) of an enterprise losing part of its resources, losing income, or incurring additional expenses as a result of certain production and financial activities.

According to Blank, risk is the likelihood of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of expected investment income in a situation of uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation.

Consideration of definitions of risk showed that risk in most of them is associated with the probability of an event, or is defined taking into account probability. However, such an interpretation makes risk management obviously impossible, since risk management, from the point of view of the above definitions, becomes identical to probability management. Thus making the process of enterprise management spontaneous, devoid of an organizational basis.

Many definitions highlight such a characteristic feature as danger, the possibility of failure. However, this position does not, in our opinion, characterize the entire content of the risk. For a more complete description of the definition of “risk”, it is advisable to find out the content of the concept of “risk situation”, since it is directly related to the content of the term “risk”.

In Ozhegov’s dictionary, the concept of “situation” is defined as “a combination, a set of various circumstances and conditions that create a certain environment for a particular type of activity.” In this case, the situation may facilitate or hinder the implementation of this action. Among various types of situations, risk situations occupy a special place.

The functioning and development of many economic processes are inherent in elements of uncertainty. This causes the emergence of situations that do not have a clear outcome. If it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively determine the degree of probability of one or another option, then this will be a risk situation.

It follows that the risky situation is associated with statistical processes and is accompanied by three conditions:

1) presence of uncertainty;

2) the need to choose an alternative;

3) the ability to assess the likelihood of the implementation of the chosen alternatives.

It should be noted that the situation of risk is different from the situation of uncertainty. A situation of uncertainty is characterized by the fact that the probability of the outcome of a decision or event cannot be established in principle.

Thus, a risk situation can be characterized as a situation of relative uncertainty, when the occurrence of events is probable and can be determined, i.e. in this case, it is objectively possible to assess the likelihood of events supposedly arising as a result of joint activities of partners, counter-actions of competitors or an adversary. In an effort to “remove” a risky situation, the subject makes a choice and strives to implement it. This process is expressed in the concept of risk. The latter exists both at the stage of choosing a solution and at the stage of its implementation.

In both cases, risk appears as a model for the subject to remove uncertainty, a way of practical resolution of a contradiction in the unclear development of opposing tendencies in specific circumstances.

Under these conditions, the formulation of the concept of “risk” given by V.A. is more complete. Chalym-Prilutsky: risk is an action performed under conditions of choice, when in case of failure there is a possibility of being in a worse position than before the choice (than in the case of not performing this action).

An important element of risk is the possibility of deviation from the chosen goal. In this case, there may be deviations of both negative and positive properties. The possibility of positive variance as a result of risk is often characterized in the economic literature as “chance.”

V.V. Shakhov defines risk as the danger of an unfavorable outcome for one expected event, and the possibility of a positive deviation under given parameters is called “chance”. Thus, risk is damage, negative deviation, loss; and chance is a positive deviation, profit.

Inconsistency as a risk feature manifests itself in various aspects. Representing a type of activity, risk, on the one hand, is focused on obtaining socially significant results in extraordinary, new ways in conditions of uncertainty and a situation of inevitable choice. Thus, it allows one to overcome conservatism, dogmatism, and psychological barriers that prevent the introduction of new, promising types of activities and act as a brake on social development. On the other hand, risk leads to adventurism, subjectivism, inhibition of social progress, and to certain socio-economic and moral costs if, in conditions of incomplete initial information about the risk situation, an alternative is chosen without due consideration of the objective laws of development of the phenomenon in relation to which the decision is made. solution.

The contradictory nature of risk is manifested in the collision of objectively existing risky actions with their subjective assessment. Thus, a person who has made a choice, carrying out this or that action, may consider them risky, while other people may regard them as cautious, devoid of any risk, and vice versa.

In the literature, there are three main points of view that recognize either the subjective, or objective, or subjective-objective nature of risk. In this case, the latter prevails - about the subjective-objective nature of risk.

The existence of risk as an objective manifestation of randomness in economic life can be explained from two positions.

On the one hand, any economic phenomenon represents a certain systemic formation, relatively delimited from other similar formations. The set of internal connections underlying such systems is opposed to the set of external connections through which some economic processes are connected with others.

On the other hand, the presence of risk is explained by the manifestation of chance as a result of the intersection of two or more independent, causally determined chains or lines of existence of various economic entities. The internal laws of an economic phenomenon necessarily determine the sequence of its external implementation. This sequence forms a line of cause-and-effect existence of an economic phenomenon.

Uncertainty, being an objective form of existence of the real world around us, is due, on the one hand, to the objective existence of chance as a form of manifestation of necessity, and on the other hand, to the incompleteness of each act of reflection of real phenomena in human consciousness. Moreover, the incompleteness of reflection is fundamentally irremovable due to the universal connection of all objects of the real world and the infinity of their development, although the desire for a complete, absolutely accurate reflection of reality characterizes the direction of human knowledge and existence.

Consequently, a necessary element of the concept of “risk” is the subject who evaluates risk as an objective manifestation of chance. As mentioned above, risk has an objective origin and does not depend on human will and consciousness. However, only as a result of its awareness by the subject of economic activity as uncertainty regarding the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of business results, it turns into a category characterizing economic reality.

Subjective risk assessment is based on the subject’s active knowledge of economic reality and manifests itself as a derivative of his activities. Only in activity is risk awareness possible. The activity of a subject in a particular area removes some of the uncertainty and, thus, reduces the subjective assessment of risk. In addition, people perceive the same amount of economic risk differently due to differences in psychological, moral, ideological principles.

The subject, in his awareness of risk as uncertainty regarding business results, acts purposefully, since objectively manifested risk sets certain boundaries and limits for the subject’s activity. On this basis, the need arises to understand the patterns of risk as an economic reality in order to harmonize the functioning of the subject with them, since its goals are formed in accordance with the logic of the development of reality, and are also objectively determined by the needs of the subject itself and the level of development of production.

It should be noted that not only risk as an objective economic reality affects the subjective assessment of risk, but also the subject influences risk as an objective manifestation of chance.

Such a property of risk as alternativeness is associated with the need to choose from two or more possible options for decisions, directions, and actions. The lack of choice removes the risk situation.

Thus, risk is closely related to the problem of setting enterprise goals and the process of making management decisions. In particular, the concept of risk can be logically woven into normative decision theory.

The following types of uncertainties and risks are considered the most significant:

1) risks associated with the instability of economic legislation and the current economic situation, investment conditions and use of profits;

2) the possibility of introducing restrictions on trade and supplies, closing borders and other foreign economic risks;

3) uncertainty of the political situation, the risk of unfavorable socio-political changes in the country or region;

4) incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the dynamics of technical and economic indicators, parameters of new equipment and technology;

5) fluctuations in market conditions, prices, exchange rates;

6) uncertainty of natural and climatic conditions, the possibility of natural disasters;

7) production and technical risk;

8) uncertainty of goals, interests and behavior of participants;

9) incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the financial position and business reputation of enterprises.

The above classification reflects the main sources of uncertainty risks.

The variety of financial risks in their classification system is presented in a wide range. It should be emphasized that the use of new financial technologies, modern financial instruments and other innovative factors lead to the emergence of new types of financial risks.

The classification criterion for financial risks by type is the main parameter for their differentiation in the management process.

In our opinion, to make management decisions it is reasonable to use the classification of financial risks by type given in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1

Classification of financial risks

Classification criterion	Types of financial risks

By area of cash flow localization	1. Financial risk in the production sector; 2. Financial risk in the financial sector; 3. Financial risk in the investment sphere; 4. Financial risk from emergency activities.
By places of origin and centers of responsibility	1. Financial risk of an individual operation; 2. Financial risk in responsibility centers; 3. Financial risk of the enterprise as a whole.
By risk level	1. High financial risk; 2. Average financial risk; 3. Low financial risk.
By type of investment decisions	1. Individual financial risk; 2. Portfolio financial risk.
According to the factors of occurrence	1. External (systematic financial risk); 2. Internal (unsystematic financial risk).
According to financial consequences	1. Financial risk entailing direct economic losses or benefits; 2. Financial risk that incurs indirect economic losses (lost profits) or economic benefits.
By type of enterprise assets	1. Risk of loss of liquidity; 2. Risk of reduced efficiency; 3. Deposit risk; 4. Credit risk; 5. Risk of non-fulfillment of contractual obligations.
By types of sources of formation	1. Financial risk of equity; 2. Financial risk of borrowed capital; 3. Financial risk of temporarily raised funds; 4. Capital structure risk.
By manifestation in time	1. Constant financial risk; 2. Temporary financial risk.
By degree of controllability	1. Completely eliminated financial risk; 2. Reduced financial risk; 3. Irreducible financial risk.
By level of financial losses	1. Acceptable financial risk; 2. Critical financial risk; 3. Catastrophic financial risk.
According to the complexity of the study	1. Simple financial risk; 2. Complex financial risk.
By financial management functions	1. Financial planning risk; 2. Financial forecasting risk; 3. Risk of financial regulation; 4. Risk of financial analysis; 5. Accounting financial risk.
By stages of the enterprise life cycle	1. Financial risk of the preparatory stage; 2. Financial risk of the investment stage; 3. Financial risk of the market development stage; 4. Financial risk of the growth stage; 5. Financial risk of the maturity stage; 6. Financial risk of the decline stage.
By type of enterprise development	1. Financial risk of evolutionary development; 2. Financial risk of revolutionary development

There are other risk classifications. For example, according to the stages of manifestation, the risk is classified into preoperative and operational. Another classification divides risk into political, economic, social, technological and industry. You can also classify risk according to the completeness of the study (simple and complex), according to sources of occurrence (external and internal), according to financial consequences, according to the nature of manifestation over time (permanent, temporary), according to the level of financial losses (acceptable, critical, catastrophic), according to the possibility of foresight (predictable and unpredictable), if possible, insurance (insurable and not insurable).

Risks in the financial sector largely depend on external factors. In real investments, you can influence a number of factors: the nature of the technology, the manufacturer of the product, the structure of the enterprise and methods of managing the production of the product, the qualifications of management. Unlike purely financial transactions, a project may contain strong, well-managed factors that fundamentally change the investment attractiveness of the project for the better.

Risks can be pure or speculative. Pure risks mean the possibility of a loss or zero result. Speculative risks are expressed in the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results. Financial risks are speculative risks. An investor, making a venture capital investment, knows in advance that only two types of results are possible for him - income or loss. A feature of financial risk is the likelihood of damage as a result of any transactions in the financial, credit and exchange spheres, transactions with stock securities, i.e. risk that arises from the nature of these operations. Financial risks include credit risk, interest rate risk - currency risk: the risk of lost financial profit.

Credit risks are the danger that a borrower will not pay the principal and interest due to the lender. Interest rate risk is the danger of losses by commercial banks, credit institutions, investment funds as a result of the excess of the interest rates they pay on borrowed funds over the rates on loans provided.

Currency risks represent the danger of foreign exchange losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of one foreign currency in relation to another, including the national currency during foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions.

The risk of lost financial profit is the risk of indirect (collateral) financial damage as a result of failure to implement any activity or interruption of business activities.

Investing capital always involves a choice of investment options and risk. Selecting different investment options often involves significant uncertainty. For example, a borrower takes out a loan, which he will repay from future income. However, these incomes themselves are unknown to him. It is quite possible that future income may not be enough to repay the loan. In investing capital you also have to take a certain risk, i.e. choose one or another degree of risk. For example, an investor must decide where he should invest capital: in a bank account, where the risk is small, but the returns are small, or in a more risky, but significantly profitable venture. To solve this problem, it is necessary to quantify the amount of financial risk and compare the degree of risk of alternative options.

Financial risk, like any risk, has a mathematically expressed probability of loss, which is based on statistical data and can be calculated with fairly high accuracy. To quantify the amount of financial risk, it is necessary to know all the possible consequences of any individual action and the likelihood of the consequences themselves. Probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result. In relation to economic problems, the methods of probability theory come down to determining the values of the probability of the occurrence of events and to selecting the most preferable from possible events based on the largest value of mathematical expectation. In other words, the mathematical expectation of an event is equal to the absolute value of this event multiplied by the probability of its occurrence.

The probability of an event occurring can be determined by an objective method or a subjective one. The objective method of determining probability is based on calculating the frequency with which a given event occurs.

The subjective method is based on the use of subjective criteria, which are based on various assumptions. Such assumptions may include the assessor's judgment, personal experience, an expert's assessment, the opinion of a financial advisor, etc.

The magnitude of risk or degree of risk is measured by two criteria:

1) average expected value;

2) variability (variability) of the possible result.

The average expected value is the value of the event magnitude that is associated with an uncertain situation. The average expected value is a weighted average of all possible outcomes, where the probability of each outcome is used as the frequency or weight of the corresponding value. Average expected value measures the outcome we expect on average.

1.2 Risk management methods. Insurance as a risk management method

There is no entrepreneurship without risk. The greatest profit, as a rule, comes from market transactions with increased risk. However, everything needs moderation. The risk must be calculated to the maximum permissible limit. As is known, all market assessments are multivariate in nature. It is important not to be afraid of mistakes in your market activities, since no one is immune from them, and most importantly, not to repeat mistakes, constantly adjust the system of actions from the standpoint of maximum profit. The main goal of management, especially for the conditions of today's Russia, is to ensure that in the worst case scenario we can only talk about a slight decrease in profits, but in no case is there any question of bankruptcy. Therefore, special attention is paid to the continuous improvement of risk management - risk management.

In a market economy, producers, sellers, and buyers act independently in competitive conditions, that is, at their own peril and risk. Their financial future is therefore unpredictable and difficult to predict. Risk management represents a system for assessing risk, managing risk and financial relations arising in the business process. Risk can be managed using a variety of measures that allow, to a certain extent, to predict the occurrence of a risk event and take timely measures to reduce the degree of risk.

In Russian practice, the risk of an entrepreneur is quantitatively characterized by a subjective assessment of the expected value of the maximum and minimum income from capital investment. The larger the range between the maximum and minimum income with equal probability of receiving them, the higher the degree of risk. Risk is taking action in hopes of a happy outcome. An entrepreneur is forced to take risks by the uncertainty of the economic situation, the unknown conditions of the political and economic situation and the prospects for changes in these conditions. The greater the uncertainty of the business situation when making a decision, the higher the degree of risk.

The degree and magnitude of risk can actually be influenced through the financial mechanism, which is carried out using the techniques of strategy and financial management. This unique risk management mechanism is risk management. Risk management is based on the organization of work to identify and reduce the degree of risk.

Risk management represents a system for managing risk and economic (more precisely financial) relations arising in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.

Management strategy refers to the directions and methods of using means to achieve a goal. Each method has a specific set of rules and restrictions for making the best decision. Strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solution options that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and discard all other options. After achieving the set goal, this strategy ceases to exist, since new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.

Tactics are practical methods and techniques of management to achieve an established goal in specific conditions. The task of management tactics is to select the most optimal solution and the most constructive management methods and techniques in a given economic situation.

Risk management as a management system consists of two subsystems: a managed subsystem - the object of management and a control subsystem - the subject of management. The object of control in risk management is risky capital investments and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include connections between the policyholder and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.

The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers who, through various options for their influence, carry out the purposeful functioning of the management object. This process can only be carried out if the necessary information circulates between the subject and the control object. The management process always involves the receipt, transmission, processing and practical use of information. Acquiring reliable and sufficient information in specific conditions plays a major role, since it helps to make the right decision on actions under risk conditions. Information support consists of various types of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.

This information includes information about the likelihood of a particular insured event, event, the presence and magnitude of demand for goods, for capital, about the financial stability and solvency of its clients, partners, competitors, etc.

Whoever owns the information owns the market. Many types of information constitute the subject of a trade secret and can be a type of intellectual property, which means they can be made as a contribution to the authorized capital of a joint-stock company or partnership. Having sufficient and reliable business information at the disposal of the financial manager allows him to quickly make financial and business decisions. This leads to reduced losses and increased profits.

Any management decision is based on information, and the quality of this information is important, which should be assessed when it is received, and not when transmitted. Information now loses relevance very quickly; it should be used promptly.

A business entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best file cabinet for collecting information is a computer that has both good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.

Risk management performs certain functions.

The following risk management functions are distinguished:

The management object, which includes the organization of risk resolution; risky capital investments; work to reduce the risk; risk insurance process; economic relations and connections between subjects of the economic process.

Subject of management, within which forecasting, organization, coordination, regulation, stimulation, control.

Reducing financial risk involves taking organizational measures to help prevent losses. Taking into account risk involves accepting possible losses and planning their financing when justifying an investment decision. Accordingly, risk management tools include risk reduction tools and risk accounting tools.

Risk management becomes relevant after a risk problem is identified. However, P. Drucker draws the attention of managers to the fact that results can be achieved by taking advantage of opportunities, and not by solving problems. All that a person who sets out to solve problems can hope for is the restoration of normalcy. At best, one can only hope to remove the restrictions that prevent a business from achieving results.

Therefore, risk management affects the efficiency of any operation and the entire financial and economic system.

The high level of costs for control and risk management necessitated a systematic approach to risk management.

V.V. Glushchenko highlights the following essential points in a systematic approach to risk management:

1. The goal of ensuring operational safety is systemic parallel protection against various types of risks. When managing risks, you should strive to balance your objectives.

2. Risks that have various sources and are associated with one object are considered as a single set of factors affecting the efficiency of resource use.

3. Risk management is concerned with the efficiency of an operation or any production system.

4. To reduce risk at various cycles (stages) of the enterprise, a set of measures is developed.

5. Risk management activities are considered as a single system.

Thus, a systematic approach to risk management allows an economic entity to effectively allocate resources to ensure security.

Risk management can be characterized as a set of methods, techniques and measures that allow, to a certain extent, to predict the occurrence of risk events and take measures to eliminate or reduce the negative consequences of the occurrence of such events.

To reduce risk in financial management, it is advisable to use a number of organizational risk management tools to influence certain aspects of the enterprise's activities.

The variety of reduction methods used in practice can be divided into 4 groups:

1) methods of avoiding risk;

2) methods of risk localization;

3) methods of risk dissipation;

4) risk compensation methods.

Risk reduction methods corresponding to each group are given in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2

Methods to reduce financial risk

Group of risk reduction methods	Risk Reduction Methods
Risk Avoidance Techniques	Refusal from unreliable partners Refusal of innovative projects Insurance of economic activities Creation of regional or sectoral structures of mutual insurance and reinsurance systems Search for “guarantors”
Risk localization methods	Allocation of “economically dangerous” areas into structurally or financially independent divisions (internal venture). Formation of venture enterprises Consistent disaggregation of the enterprise
Risk dissipation methods	Integration distribution of responsibilities between production partners (formation of financial industrial groups, joint-stock companies, exchange of shares, etc.) Diversification of activities Diversification of sales markets and business areas (expanding the circle of consumer partners) Expansion of purchases of raw materials, materials, etc. Distribution of risk across stages of work (over time) Diversification of an enterprise's investment portfolio
Risk compensation methods	Implementation of strategic planning Forecasting the external economic situation in the country, economic region, etc. Monitoring the socio-economic and regulatory environment. Creation of a system of reserves at the enterprise Active targeted (“aggressive”) marketing Creation of unions, associations, mutual assistance and mutual support funds, etc. Lobbying for bills that neutralize or compensate for foreseeable risk factors
	Issue of convertible preferred shares Combating industrial and economic espionage

Risk avoidance methods are the most common in business practice. These methods are used by entrepreneurs who prefer to act without risk. Managers of this type refuse the services of unreliable partners and strive to work only with counterparties that have convincingly proven their reliability - consumers and suppliers. Business entities that adhere to the tactics of “risk aversion” refuse innovative and other projects, the confidence in the feasibility or effectiveness of which raises even the slightest doubt.

Another possibility for avoiding risk is to try to transfer the risk to some third party. For this purpose, they resort to insuring their actions or searching for “guarantors,” completely transferring their risk to them. Insurance of probable losses not only serves as reliable protection against unsuccessful decisions, but also increases the responsibility of business managers, forcing them to take the development and adoption of decisions seriously and regularly carry out preventive protective measures. The method of “searching for guarantors” is used by both small and large enterprises. Only the functions of a guarantor for them are performed by different entities: for the first - large companies, for the second - government bodies. In this case, as in other cases, it is important to compare the fee for transferring risk and the benefits acquired.

Risk localization methods are used in those relatively rare cases when it is possible to sufficiently clearly and specifically isolate and identify sources of financial risk. By identifying the economically most dangerous stage or area of activity, you can make it controllable and thus reduce the overall risk level of the enterprise. Similar methods are used by many large companies when introducing innovative projects, developing new types of products, the commercial success of which is highly doubtful. To implement such projects, subsidiaries are created, so-called. venture enterprises within which the risky part of the project is localized. In less complex cases, a structural unit is formed in the structure of the enterprise for the implementation of risky projects. At the same time, in both cases, the conditions for effectively connecting the scientific and technical potential of the parent company are preserved.

Risk dissipation methods are more flexible management tools. One of the main methods of dissipation is to distribute risk by combining (with varying degrees of integration) with other participants interested in the success of a common cause. An enterprise has the opportunity to reduce its own level of risk by involving other enterprises as partners in solving common problems.

Risk compensation methods involve the creation of a hazard prevention mechanism. They are, as a rule, more labor-intensive and require extensive preliminary analytical work, the completeness and thoroughness of which determines the effectiveness of their application.

The most effective method of this type is the use of strategic planning in the activities of the enterprise. It, as a means of risk compensation, is effective when the strategy development process permeates all areas of the enterprise’s activities, including financial ones. Full-scale strategic planning actions can remove most of the uncertainty, allow you to predict the emergence of bottlenecks in the operating and financial cycles, prevent the weakening of the enterprise’s position in its market sector, identify in advance the specific profile of the enterprise’s risk factors, and, therefore, develop in advance a set of compensating measures.

Let's look at the basic techniques for reducing risk.

Diversification is the process of distributing invested funds between various investment objects that are not directly related to each other, in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income; diversification allows you to avoid some of the risk when distributing capital between various types of activities (for example, an investor purchasing shares of five different joint-stock companies instead of shares of one company increases the likelihood of receiving an average income by five times and, accordingly, reduces the degree of risk by five times). Gain additional information about choices and results. More complete information allows for an accurate forecast and reduced risk, making it very valuable. Limitation is the establishment of a limit, that is, maximum amounts of expenses, sales, loans, etc., used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans, by business entities to sell goods on credit, provide loans, determine the amount of capital investment, etc. . With self-insurance, an entrepreneur prefers to insure himself rather than buy insurance from an insurance company; self-insurance is a decentralized form, the creation of natural and monetary insurance funds directly in business entities, especially in those whose activities are at risk; The main task of self-insurance is to quickly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities. Insurance is the protection of the property interests of business entities and citizens upon the occurrence of certain events at the expense of monetary funds formed from the insurance premiums they pay. Legal norms of insurance in the Russian Federation are established by law.

Insurance should be considered in more detail. It represents an economic category, the essence of which is the distribution of damage among all insurance participants. This is a kind of cooperation to combat the consequences of natural disasters and contradictions within society that arise due to economic relations between members of society. Insurance performs four functions: risk, preventive, savings, control. The content of the risk function is expressed in risk compensation. As part of this function, there is a redistribution of monetary value between insurance participants in connection with the consequences of random insurance events. The risk function of insurance is the main one, because insurance risk is directly related to the main purpose of insurance to compensate for material damage to victims.

The purpose of the preventive function of insurance is to finance, from the insurance fund, measures to reduce the insurance risk. The content of the savings function is that with the help of insurance, funds are saved for survival. This saving is caused by the need for insurance protection of the achieved family wealth. The essence of the control function is expressed in monitoring the strictly targeted formation and use of insurance fund funds.

Insurance can be provided in compulsory and voluntary forms. Compulsory insurance is insurance carried out by force of law. Expenses for compulsory insurance are included in the cost of production. Voluntary insurance is carried out on the basis of an agreement between the policyholder and the insurer.

The financial manager is constantly faced with the problem of choosing sources of financing. The peculiarity is that servicing one or another source costs the enterprise differently. Financial decisions will be accurate to the extent that the information is objective and sufficient.

The level of objectivity depends on the extent to which the capital market corresponds to an efficient market. Risk management is based on a targeted search and organization of work to reduce the degree of risk, the art of obtaining and increasing income in an uncertain economic situation. The ultimate role of risk management is fully consistent with the target function of entrepreneurship. It consists in obtaining the greatest profit with an optimal ratio of profit and risk.

1.3 Enterprise risk assessment

Risk assessment at the enterprise is carried out by a risk assessment manager. He develops, advises and manages risk management programs and loss prevention activities to ensure maximum protection of corporate assets and capital. Conducts investigations and reports on accidents and incidents related to the company's products, and then coordinates the actions of insurance companies and lawyers. Reviews and analyzes data and develops programs to minimize risks. Monitors compliance with safety regulations and ensures that the company's products comply with industry standards and market requirements.

There are several approaches to assessing risk at an enterprise. Let's look at some of them.

The main task of the first of the risk assessment methods under consideration is their systematization and the development of an integrated approach to determining the degree of risk affecting the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The following risk assessment algorithm is proposed, which is shown in Fig. 1.1.

All risk researchers do not pay sufficient attention to assessing the quality of the information with which they assess risk.

Rice. 1.1. Flowchart of a comprehensive risk assessment

The requirements for the quality of information should be as follows:

Reliability (correctness) of information - a measure of the proximity of information to the original source or accuracy of information transmission;

Objectivity of information is a measure of how information reflects reality;

Unambiguity;

Order of information - the number of transmission links between the primary source and the end user;

Completeness of information - a reflection of the exhaustive nature of the compliance of the information received with the purposes of collection;

Relevance - the degree of approximation of information to the essence of the issue or the degree of correspondence of information to the task;

Relevance of information (significance) - the importance of information for risk assessment;

Cost of information.

It is proposed to establish a relationship between risk and the quality of information used to assess it. It is suggested that the likelihood of the risk of making a poor-quality (unprofitable) decision depends on the quality and volume of information used. This assumption is taken from neoclassical risk theory. According to this theory, if there are several options for making a decision (with equal profitability), the decision with the lowest probability of risk (fluctuation) is chosen. It can be assumed that even if there are several options with the same profit, a decision is chosen that is based on better information, that is, there is a connection between risk and information.

In Fig. 1.2. shows the expected relationship between the probability of risk of making a poor-quality (unprofitable) decision and the volume/quality of information.

A high probability of risk occurrence corresponds to a minimum of quality information.

Figure 1.2. Dependence of risk and information

To assess the quality of information, it is proposed to use Table 1.3.

Table 1.3

Assessing the Information Used

Characteristic	Evaluation criterion (quality)

Reliability (correctness) of information
Objectivity of information
Unambiguity
Order of information
Completeness of information
Relevance
Relevance of information (significance)
Quantitative quality assessment as an arithmetic mean value

This table allows you to analyze any information and clearly verify its quality. Numbers 1-10 at the top of the table indicate the quality of information: the better the information, the higher the number it is assigned. The result of the analysis can be the final value of information quality, which is found as an arithmetic mean.

Fixation of risks. When assessing financial and economic activities, it is proposed to record risks, that is, limit the number of existing risks using the principle of “reasonable sufficiency”. This principle is based on taking into account the most significant and most common risks for assessing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise. It is recommended to use the following types of risks: regional, natural, political, legislative, transport, property, organizational, personal, marketing, production, settlement, investment, currency, credit, financial.

Drawing up an algorithm for the decision to be made. This stage in assessing the risks of financial and economic activity is intended for the gradual division of the planned solution into a certain number of smaller and simpler solutions. This action is called drawing up a solution algorithm.

Qualitative risk assessment. Qualitative risk assessment implies: identifying the risks inherent in the implementation of the proposed solution; determination of the quantitative structure of risks; identification of the most risky areas in the developed decision algorithm.

To carry out this procedure, it is proposed to use a qualitative analysis table. This table shows the algorithm of actions when making a decision in rows, and previously fixed risks in columns. So, when deciding to place new base stations at one of the communications enterprises, the risk assessment may look like this (see Table 1.4).

Table 1.4

Qualitative risk assessment

Decision algorithm

Type of risk

regional

natural

transport

political

legislative

organizational

personal

property

settlement

marketing

industrial

currency

credit

financial

investment

Identifying the need to place new equipment in a given area

Attracting working capital

Organization of the transaction, purchase

necessary equipment

Transportation

Equipment installation

After compiling this table, a qualitative analysis of the risks inherent in the implementation of this solution is carried out.

The main goal of this assessment stage is to identify the main types of risks affecting financial and economic activities. The advantage of this approach is that already at the initial stage of analysis, the head of the enterprise can clearly assess the degree of riskiness based on the quantitative composition of the risks and already at this stage refuse to implement a certain decision.

Quantitative risk assessment. It is proposed to base the quantitative risk assessment on the methodology used when conducting audits, namely: risk assessment based on control points of financial and economic activities. The use of this method, as well as the results of qualitative analysis, make it possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risks of the financial and economic activities of enterprises.

...

Types of risks	Line code	Reasons for risk	Risk Prevention Measures

Demand volatility		1. increase in product prices as a result of an increase in production costs 2. decrease in the level of consumer solvency 3. change in product quality 4. change in consumer requirements 5. price reduction by competitors 6. emergence of an alternative product 7. emergence of new competitors	Constantly conducting analysis of market conditions in order to identify new consumers of products; Market research to assess changes in demand levels; Effective accounting, pricing and tax policies pursued by the enterprise; Constant application of measures to reduce the cost of products.
Rising prices for raw materials, electricity and fuel		1.Increase in production costs and, as a consequence, increase in production costs 2. Increased demand for cheaper sources of production	Search for alternative suppliers; Formation of reserves of raw materials and supplies.
Failure to fulfill contracts for shipment of products		1 Dependence on suppliers, untimely delivery of necessary raw materials; 2. Dishonesty of the supplier’s personnel and our organization; 3. Attitude of local authorities: the possibility of them introducing additional restrictions (taxes) that complicate the sale of products and the project as a whole; 4. Force majeure circumstances.	Formation of reserves of raw materials (mainly flour) and products in case of receipt of an order for the supply of products; Concluding a supply contract only with advance payment for products.


Decline in production and sales	1.Increase in prices for raw materials, materials, fuel, electricity; 2. Decrease in product quality; 3. The emergence of new competitors on the market.	Concluding firm contracts for the supply of products; Directing processes to improve product quality and technology.
Deterioration in product quality	1. Reduction of production capacity; 2. Decrease in the quality of raw materials and materials	Constant control of product quality; - improvement of production technology; Formation of a list of alternative suppliers.
Risk of non-receipt materials due to termination of concluded supply contracts	1. The supplier makes a decision to change the terms of the contract for the supply of raw materials; 2. Force majeure circumstances leading to the impossibility of delivering raw materials necessary for the production of products (transport accidents).	Expanding the list of suppliers; Creation of safety reserves of raw materials; Development of a system for the functioning of an organization in the context of searching for alternative suppliers.
Political risk	The possibility of losses or reduction in profit margins resulting from government policy.	Constantly monitoring the political situation in the country, as well as paying attention to changes in legislation.

Analysis of enterprise risks using an example. Fundamental research Assessment of economic risks using the example of an enterprise

1.3 Risk management

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Risk management as a key tool aimed at improving business efficiency

Methodology (program) for continuous risk management

Development of a risk management program at the enterprise

Conclusion

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Chapter 1. Risk management methods

Chapter 2. Risk management using the example of Olis-dent LLC

3. Main directions of risk reduction in Olis-dent LLC

Introduction

In any business activity there is always a danger of monetary losses arising from the specifics of certain business transactions. The danger of such losses is financial risks. Therefore, knowledge of the essence of risks and options for managing their reduction determines the relevance of the topic.

Chapter 1. Risk management methods

1.1 Concept, classification of risks in an enterprise

Analysis and modeling of operations and systems shows that the main properties of any system and operation are the target effect (income), costs (time and resources), risk (danger or safety).

The origin of the term “risk” goes back to the Greek words ridsikon, ridsa - cliff, rock. The word “risk” came into English literature in the middle of the 18th century. from France as the word "risque" (risky, doubtful).

Webster's Dictionary defines "risk" as "the danger, possibility of loss or damage." In Ozhegov’s dictionary, “risk” is defined as “the possibility of danger” or as “an action at random in the hope of a happy outcome.”

In domestic economic science, risk was completely related to the phenomena of the capitalist economy. Ignoring the problems of risk reached such an extent that the very concept of “risk” was not even included in the encyclopedia “Political Economy”.

The dictionary - reference book for entrepreneurs outlines the concept of “entrepreneur risk” as the possibility of failures and losses in business activities, which, if carelessly or illiterately approach the matter, can lead to undesirable consequences and damage.

According to Blank, risk is the likelihood of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of expected investment income in a situation of uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation.

It follows that the risky situation is associated with statistical processes and is accompanied by three conditions:

1) presence of uncertainty;

2) the need to choose an alternative;

3) the ability to assess the likelihood of the implementation of the chosen alternatives.

It should be noted that the situation of risk is different from the situation of uncertainty. A situation of uncertainty is characterized by the fact that the probability of the outcome of a decision or event cannot be established in principle.

In both cases, risk appears as a model for the subject to remove uncertainty, a way of practical resolution of a contradiction in the unclear development of opposing tendencies in specific circumstances.

An important element of risk is the possibility of deviation from the chosen goal. In this case, there may be deviations of both negative and positive properties. The possibility of positive variance as a result of risk is often characterized in the economic literature as “chance.”

V.V. Shakhov defines risk as the danger of an unfavorable outcome for one expected event, and the possibility of a positive deviation under given parameters is called “chance”. Thus, risk is damage, negative deviation, loss; and chance is a positive deviation, profit.

In the literature, there are three main points of view that recognize either the subjective, or objective, or subjective-objective nature of risk. In this case, the latter prevails - about the subjective-objective nature of risk.

The existence of risk as an objective manifestation of randomness in economic life can be explained from two positions.

On the one hand, any economic phenomenon represents a certain systemic formation, relatively delimited from other similar formations. The set of internal connections underlying such systems is opposed to the set of external connections through which some economic processes are connected with others.

Classification of financial risks

1.2 Risk management methods. Insurance as a risk management method

1.3 Enterprise risk assessment

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Analysis of enterprise risks using an example. Fundamental research Assessment of economic risks using the example of an enterprise

1.3 Risk management

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Similar documents

Risk management as a key tool aimed at improving business efficiency

Methodology (program) for continuous risk management

Development of a risk management program at the enterprise

Conclusion

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Chapter 1. Risk management methods

Chapter 2. Risk management using the example of Olis-dent LLC

3. Main directions of risk reduction in Olis-dent LLC

Introduction

Chapter 1. Risk management methods

1.1 Concept, classification of risks in an enterprise

Analysis and modeling of operations and systems shows that the main properties of any system and operation are the target effect (income), costs (time and resources), risk (danger or safety).

The origin of the term “risk” goes back to the Greek words ridsikon, ridsa - cliff, rock. The word “risk” came into English literature in the middle of the 18th century. from France as the word "risque" (risky, doubtful).

Webster's Dictionary defines "risk" as "the danger, possibility of loss or damage." In Ozhegov’s dictionary, “risk” is defined as “the possibility of danger” or as “an action at random in the hope of a happy outcome.”

In domestic economic science, risk was completely related to the phenomena of the capitalist economy. Ignoring the problems of risk reached such an extent that the very concept of “risk” was not even included in the encyclopedia “Political Economy”.

The dictionary - reference book for entrepreneurs outlines the concept of “entrepreneur risk” as the possibility of failures and losses in business activities, which, if carelessly or illiterately approach the matter, can lead to undesirable consequences and damage.

According to Blank, risk is the likelihood of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of expected investment income in a situation of uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation.

It follows that the risky situation is associated with statistical processes and is accompanied by three conditions:

1) presence of uncertainty;

2) the need to choose an alternative;

3) the ability to assess the likelihood of the implementation of the chosen alternatives.

It should be noted that the situation of risk is different from the situation of uncertainty. A situation of uncertainty is characterized by the fact that the probability of the outcome of a decision or event cannot be established in principle.

In both cases, risk appears as a model for the subject to remove uncertainty, a way of practical resolution of a contradiction in the unclear development of opposing tendencies in specific circumstances.

An important element of risk is the possibility of deviation from the chosen goal. In this case, there may be deviations of both negative and positive properties. The possibility of positive variance as a result of risk is often characterized in the economic literature as “chance.”

V.V. Shakhov defines risk as the danger of an unfavorable outcome for one expected event, and the possibility of a positive deviation under given parameters is called “chance”. Thus, risk is damage, negative deviation, loss; and chance is a positive deviation, profit.

In the literature, there are three main points of view that recognize either the subjective, or objective, or subjective-objective nature of risk. In this case, the latter prevails - about the subjective-objective nature of risk.

The existence of risk as an objective manifestation of randomness in economic life can be explained from two positions.

Classification of financial risks

1.2 Risk management methods. Insurance as a risk management method

1.3 Enterprise risk assessment

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